Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

New York City: "gilt cage" or "promised land" ? : representations of urban space in Edith Wharton and Anzia Yezierska

This thesis explores the importance of literary New York City in the urban narratives of Edith Wharton and Anzia Yezierska. It specifically looks at the Empire City of the Progressive Period when the concept of the city was not only a new theme but also very much a typical American one which was as central to the American experience as had been the Western frontier. It could be argued, in fact, that the American city had become the new frontier where modern experiences like urbanization, industrialization, immigration, and also women's emancipation and suffrage, caused all kinds of sensations on the human scale from smoothly lived assimilation and acculturation to deeply felt alienation because of the constantly shifting urban landscape. The developing urban space made possible the emergence of new female literary protagonists like the working girl, the reformer, the prostitute, and the upper class lady dedicating her life to 'conspicuous consumption'. Industrialization opened up city space to female exploration: on the one hand, upper and middle class ladies ventured out of the home because of the many novel urban possibilities, and on the other, lower class and immigrant girls also left their domestic sphere to look for paid jobs outside the home. New York City at the time was not only considered the epicenter of the world at large, it was also a city of great extremes. Everything was constantly in flux: small brownstones made way for ever taller skyscrapers and huge waves of immigrants from Europe pushed native New Yorkers further uptown on the island, adding to the crowdedness and intensity of the urban experience. The city became a polarized urban space with Fifth Avenue representing one end of the spectrum and the Lower East Side the other. Questions of space and the urban home greatly mattered. It has been pointed out that the city setting functions as an ideal means for the display of human nature as well as social processes. Narrative representations of urban space, therefore, provide a similar canvas for a protagonist's journey and development. From widely diverging vantage points both Edith Wharton and Anzia Yezierska thus create a polarized city where domesticity is a primal concern. Looking at all of their New York narratives by close readings of exterior and interior city representations, this thesis shows how urban space greatly affects questions of identity, assimilation, and alienation in literary protagonists who cannot escape the influence of their respective urban settings. Edith Wharton's upper class "millionaire" heroines are framed and contained by the city interiors of "old" New York, making it impossible for them to truly participate in the urban landscape in order to develop outside of their 'Gilt Cages'. On the other side are Anzia Yezierska's struggling "immigrant" protagonists who, against all odds, never give up in their urban context of streets, rooftops, and stoops. Their New York City, while always challenging and perpetually changing, at least allows them perspectives of hope for a 'Promised Land' in the making. Central for both urban narrative approaches is the quest for a home as an architectural structure, a spiritual resting place, and a locus for identity forming. But just as the actual city embraces change, urban protagonists must embrace change also if they desire to find fulfillment and success. That this turns out to be much easier for Anzia Yezierska's driven immigrants rather than for Edith Wharton's well established native New Yorkers is a surprising conclusion to this urban theme.

Cohort profile: Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC).

The advent of effective combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 1996 resulted in fewer patients experiencing clinical events, so that some prognostic analyses of individual cohort studies of human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals had low statistical power. Because of this, the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) of HIV cohort studies in Europe and North America was established in 2000, with the aim of studying the prognosis for clinical events in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and the mortality of adult patients treated for HIV-1 infection. In 2002, the ART-CC collected data on more than 12,000 patients in 13 cohorts who had begun combination ART between 1995 and 2001. Subsequent updates took place in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010. The ART-CC data base now includes data on more than 70,000 patients participating in 19 cohorts who began treatment before the end of 2009. Data are collected on patient demographics (e.g. sex, age, assumed transmission group, race/ethnicity, geographical origin), HIV biomarkers (e.g. CD4 cell count, plasma viral load of HIV-1), ART regimen, dates and types of AIDS events, and dates and causes of death. In recent years, additional data on co-infections such as hepatitis C; risk factors such as smoking, alcohol and drug use; non-HIV biomarkers such as haemoglobin and liver enzymes; and adherence to ART have been collected whenever available. The data remain the property of the contributing cohorts, whose representatives manage the ART-CC via the steering committee of the Collaboration. External collaboration is welcomed. Details of contacts are given on the ART-CC website (www.art-cohort-collaboration.org).

Cerebral perfusion CT: Current state of the art : P44

Purpose: The aim of this educational poster is to introduce the technical principles of cerebral perfusion CT and to provide examples of its clinical applications and potential limitations in the everyday emergency practice. Methods and materials: Cerebral perfusion CT is a well established investigatory tool for many vascular and parenchymal brain dysfunctions. CT perfusion maps allow a semiquantitative assessment of cerebral perfusion. Results: Currently, cerebral perfusion CT has a pivotal role in differentiating reversible from irreversible ischemic parenchymal insult besides its integral role in grading vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage. Furthermore, cerebral perfusion CT can be coupled to acetazolamide administration in order to assess the cerebrovascular reserve capacity before performing extra-/intra-cranial bypass surgery in patients with cerebral vascular insufficiency. Cerebral perfusion CT can also identify diffuse abnormalities of cerebral perfusion in children with traumatic brain injury showing a low initial GCS in order to predict the final outcome regarding the late occurrence of irreversible parenchymal damage. Cerebral Perfusion CT is also able to detect focal parenchymal perfusion abnormalities in acute epileptic seizures. Conclusion: Cerebral perfusion CT can be integrated in the management of many vascular, traumatic and functional disorders of the brain.

Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Low-frequency drug-resistant HIV-1 and risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART: a multicohort European case-control study using centralized ultrasensitive 454 pyrosequencing.

OBJECTIVES: It is still debated if pre-existing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (MVs) affect the virological outcomes of first-line NNRTI-containing ART. METHODS: This Europe-wide case-control study included ART-naive subjects infected with drug-susceptible HIV-1 as revealed by population sequencing, who achieved virological suppression on first-line ART including one NNRTI. Cases experienced virological failure and controls were subjects from the same cohort whose viraemia remained suppressed at a matched time since initiation of ART. Blinded, centralized 454 pyrosequencing with parallel bioinformatic analysis in two laboratories was used to identify MVs in the 1%-25% frequency range. ORs of virological failure according to MV detection were estimated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty samples (76 cases and 184 controls), mostly subtype B (73.5%), were used for the analysis. Identical MVs were detected in the two laboratories. 31.6% of cases and 16.8% of controls harboured pre-existing MVs. Detection of at least one MV versus no MVs was associated with an increased risk of virological failure (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.35-5.60, P = 0.005); similar associations were observed for at least one MV versus no NRTI MVs (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 0.76-6.77, P = 0.140) and at least one MV versus no NNRTI MVs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12-5.18, P = 0.024). A dose-effect relationship between virological failure and mutational load was found. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing MVs more than double the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART.

NYVAC immunization induces polyfunctional HIV-specific T-cell responses in chronically-infected, ART-treated HIV patients.

We report the results of the Theravac-01 phase I trial, which was conducted to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of a poxvirus-based vector, NYVAC, expressing Gag, Pol, Nef, and Env from an HIV clade B isolate. NYVAC-B vaccine was injected intra-muscularly into ten HIV-infected patients successfully treated with antiretroviral therapy, twice on day 0 and again at week 4. Safety and immunogenicity were monitored for 48 weeks. HIV-specific T-cell responses following immunization were quantitatively analyzed using an IFN-γ ELISPOT assay and qualitatively characterized for their functional profile (including multiple cytokines secretion plus cytotoxic and proliferation capacity) by polychromatic flow cytometry. Our results indicate that the NYVAC-B vaccine is safe and highly immunogenic, as indicated by increased HIV-specific T-cell responses in virtually all vaccinees. Interestingly, both an expansion of preexisting T-cell responses, and the appearance of newly detected HIV-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses were observed. Furthermore, immunization mostly induced an increase in Gag-specific T-cell responses. In conclusion, NYVAC-B immunization induces broad, vigorous, and polyfunctional HIV-specific T-cell responses, suggesting that poxvirus-based vaccine regimens may be instrumental in the therapeutic HIV vaccine field.

Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Les principes régissant l'exécution des peines privatives de liberté ( art. 74 et 75 al. 1 CP)

CHAPITRE PREMIER: INTRODUCTION 1. Considérer l'idéal... L'idéal n'est probablement pas de ce monde, mais il importe de tendre vers lui. Il restera peut-être hors de portée, mais le seul fait de le considérer doit déjà être assimilé à un progrès. Dans le cadre de l'exécution des peines privatives de liberté, l'idéal dont nous parlons ici fait référence à la prise en charge du détenu et à la volonté d'offrir à ce dernier, un jour, la possibilité de réintégrer la société. Le système carcéral se doit dès lors de mettre tout en oeuvre pour permettre au détenu d'acquérir les outils nécessaires à sa future liberté; cette liberté qui, dès les premiers jours d'incarcération déjà, devra être envisagée. L'idéal est donc de voir le détenu évoluer progressivement vers le monde libre, le respect de ce monde et des valeurs qu'il véhicule. C'est l'idéal que dessine le nouveau Code pénal (CP), plus particulièrement au travers des principes qu'il consacre aux articles 74 et 75 al. 1 CP: «le détenu a droit au respect de [sa] dignité»; «l'exercice de [ses] droits ne peut être restreint que dans la mesure requise par la privation de liberté et par les exigences de la vie collective dans l'établissement»; «l'exécution de la peine [...] doit améliorer le comportement social du détenu»; «l'exécution de la peine doit correspondre autant que possible à des conditions de vie ordinaires, assurer au détenu l'assistance nécessaire» et «combattre les effets nocifs de la privation de liberté». De la réalité carcérale à l'idéal législatif, il est toutefois certains écueils. Les différents professionnels qui sont en contact avec les détenus le confirmeront volontiers, pour la plupart. Il existe des détenus qui ne veulent pas se réintégrer diront certains, alors que d'autres mettront en avant l'insuffisance de moyens humains ou financiers. Une réalité doit cependant triompher de toutes les autres: il est nécessaire de faire évoluer le système pénitentiaire. Tout comme la société, dont elle est partie intégrante, la prison doit évoluer avec son temps, et les développements que suit le monde libre se doivent d'aller au-delà des murs. Notre approche de la thématique restera évidemment théorique, mais elle sera dictée par cette volonté progressiste. Si les concepts abordés peuvent parfois paraître naïfs dans leur développement, ils n'en seront pas moins l'expression d'un idéal, celui-là même qu'il est bon de considérer, parfois, pour permettre le progrès. II. La méthodologie La difficulté de traiter des principes régissant l'exécution des peines privatives de liberté est multiple. L'une des premières problématiques est liée au fédéralisme suisse et au fait que l'exécution des peines ressort de la compétence cantonale (art. 123 al. 2 Cst.). Il en résulte des pratiques cantonales parfois différentes. Il est alors non seulement difficile d'aborder l'ensemble des ces différences, mais il peut même être discutable de les tolérer, au sens où elles présentent parfois des inégalités de traitement entre les détenus du pays. L'attribution récente de compétences expresses en la matière à la Confédération (art. 123 al. 3ère phr. Cst.) devrait toutefois permettre, à notre sens, de réduire ces inégalités et, plus généralement, de favoriser une uniformisation des pratiques à travers le pays. Une deuxième difficulté est due à l'évolution législative actuelle. En effet, l'entrée en vigueur du nouveau Code pénal impose une «mise à jour» substantielle aux cantons, dont les normes mais aussi les infrastructures doivent être adaptées au nouveau droit. Au-delà du nombre considérable de bases légales que compte notre pays en matière d'exécution des peines privatives de liberté, il faut en outre jongler avec l'élaboration d'une multitude de nouvelles lois cantonales. Nous renonçons à dresser ici la liste exhaustive des bases légales cantonales concernées, non seulement parce qu'il nous paraît difficile de connaître l'ensemble de ces évolutions législatives récentes ou à venir, mais aussi parce qu'il s'agit avant tout de traiter de problématiques générales soulevées par l'exécution des peines privatives de liberté, ce qui ne nécessite pas une revue exhaustive des différentes législations cantonales. Certaines de ces bases légales seront néanmoins mentionnées, ci et là, pour illustrer ou appuyer quelques-uns de nos propos. La troisième difficulté qu'il faut mentionner ici relève du lien étroit qui existe entre le droit de l'exécution des peines et la criminologie, ainsi que, plus généralement, l'ensemble des sciences s'intéressant à la déviance en tant que maladie (psychiatrie, psychologie, médecine, etc.). Il nous semble en effet difficile de traiter de la prise en charge du détenu par la seule voie juridique et, à ce titre, nous proposerons une analyse empreinte de considérations criminologiques substantielles et notamment de différentes données fournies par des études de criminologie. Dans la limite de nos compétences - plus que restreintes en la matière -, il sera parfois également traité de l'exécution des peines sous l'angle de la psychologie, de la psychiatrie, ou encore de la médecine. Enfin, il faut reconnaître que la thématique traitée est vaste. Les différents principes énumérés aux articles 74 et 75 al. 1 CP ne peuvent en effet être abordés sans que référence soit faite aux nombreuses dispositions traitant de l'exécution des peines privatives de liberté et qui se doivent d'en être la consécration. Cette réalité impose une approche générale du fonctionnement du milieu carcéral et l'analyse de l'exécution d'une peine privative de liberté sur toute sa durée, du premier jour d'incarcération jusqu'à la libération, en passant par les différents aménagements et élargissements possibles qui, très souvent, seront essentiels à la réintégration sociale du détenu. En l'espèce, il nous semble nécessaire de rappeler ici la particularité de la population étudiée, qui se distingue notamment par son hétérogénéité. Or, il ne sera pas toujours possible, dans le cadre de ce travail tout au moins, de s'arrêter sur les spécificités propres à chaque type de détenu(s). On pense ici plus particulièrement aux détenus étrangers - qui sont nombreux dans les prisons suisses -, plus particulièrement lorsque ceux-ci font l'objet d'une mesure d'expulsion au terme de leur peine. Certains se demandent en effet s'il est pertinent de favoriser la resocialisation d'un individu qui ne résidera pas en Suisse une fois libéré, sans parler des difficultés pratiques qu'il peut y avoir à proposer un régime progressif, et plus particulièrement l'ouverture vers l'extérieur, à des gens qui n'ont, aux plus proches alentours (la Suisse est un petit pays) de l'établissement de détention, aucune attache sociale. Il nous semble toutefois ressortir du devoir étatique d'offrir, à ces personnes aussi, une exécution de peine qui, dans toute la mesure du possible, ressemble à celle réservée aux indigènes. C'est dans cette optique, d'ailleurs, que nous tenterons de traiter de quelques unes des principales problématiques soulevées par la mise en application des principes régissant l'exécution des peines privatives de liberté.