New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part I. Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC

The level of information provided by ink evidence to the criminal and civil justice system is limited. The limitations arise from the weakness of the interpretative framework currently used, as proposed in the ASTM 1422-05 and 1789-04 on ink analysis. It is proposed to use the likelihood ratio from the Bayes theorem to interpret ink evidence. Unfortunately, when considering the analytical practices, as defined in the ASTM standards on ink analysis, it appears that current ink analytical practices do not allow for the level of reproducibility and accuracy required by a probabilistic framework. Such framework relies on the evaluation of the statistics of the ink characteristics using an ink reference database and the objective measurement of similarities between ink samples. A complete research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a more reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in a forensic context. This report focuses on the first of the three stages. A calibration process, based on a standard dye ladder, is proposed to improve the reproducibility of ink analysis by HPTLC, when these inks are analysed at different times and/or by different examiners. The impact of this process on the variability between the repetitive analyses of ink samples in various conditions is studied. The results show significant improvements in the reproducibility of ink analysis compared to traditional calibration methods.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

A global analysis of Y-chromosomal haplotype diversity for 23 STR loci.

In a worldwide collaborative effort, 19,630 Y-chromosomes were sampled from 129 different populations in 51 countries. These chromosomes were typed for 23 short-tandem repeat (STR) loci (DYS19, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS385ab, DYS437, DYS438, DYS439, DYS448, DYS456, DYS458, DYS635, GATAH4, DYS481, DYS533, DYS549, DYS570, DYS576, and DYS643) and using the PowerPlex Y23 System (PPY23, Promega Corporation, Madison, WI). Locus-specific allelic spectra of these markers were determined and a consistently high level of allelic diversity was observed. A considerable number of null, duplicate and off-ladder alleles were revealed. Standard single-locus and haplotype-based parameters were calculated and compared between subsets of Y-STR markers established for forensic casework. The PPY23 marker set provides substantially stronger discriminatory power than other available kits but at the same time reveals the same general patterns of population structure as other marker sets. A strong correlation was observed between the number of Y-STRs included in a marker set and some of the forensic parameters under study. Interestingly a weak but consistent trend toward smaller genetic distances resulting from larger numbers of markers became apparent.

Detecting and measuring deprivation in primary care: development, validity and reliability of a self-reported questionnaire - the DiPCare-Q

Background: General practitioners play a central role in taking deprivation into consideration when caring for patients in primary care. Validated questions to identify deprivation in primary-care practices are still lacking. For both clinical and research purposes, this study therefore aims to develop and validate a standardized instrument measuring both material and social deprivation at an individual level. Methods: The Deprivation in Primary Care Questionnaire (DiPCare-Q) was developed using qualitative and quantitative approaches between 2008 and 2011. A systematic review identified 199 questions related to deprivation. Using judgmental item quality, these were reduced to 38 questions. Two focus groups (primary-care physicians, and primary-care researchers), structured interviews (10 laymen), and think aloud interviews (eight cleaning staff) assured face validity. Item response theory analysis was then used to derive the DiPCare-Q index using data obtained from a random sample of 200 patients who were to complete the questionnaire a second time over the phone. For construct and criterion validity, the final 16 questions were administered to a random sample of 1,898 patients attending one of 47 different private primary-care practices in western Switzerland (validation set) along with questions on subjective social status (subjective SES ladder), education, source of income, welfare status, and subjective poverty. Results: Deprivation was defined in three distinct dimensions (table); material deprivation (eight items), social deprivation (five items) and health deprivation (three items). Item consistency was high in both the derivation (KR20 = 0.827) and the validation set (KR20 = 0.778). The DiPCare-Q index was reliable (ICC = 0.847). For construct validity, we showed the DiPCare-Q index to be correlated to patients' estimation of their position on the subjective SES ladder (rs = 0.539). This position was correlated to both material and social deprivation independently suggesting two separate mechanisms enhancing the feeling of deprivation. Conclusion: The DiPCare-Q is a rapid, reliable and validated instrument useful for measuring both material and social deprivation in primary care. Questions from the DiPCare-Q are easy to use when investigating patients' social history and could improve clinicians' ability to detect underlying social distress related to deprivation.

Caveolin-1 opens endothelial cell junctions by targeting catenins.

AIMS: A fundamental phenomenon in inflammation is the loss of endothelial barrier function, in which the opening of endothelial cell junctions plays a central role. However, the molecular mechanisms that ultimately open the cell junctions are largely unknown.¦METHODS AND RESULTS: Impedance spectroscopy, biochemistry, and morphology were used to investigate the role of caveolin-1 in the regulation of thrombin-induced opening of cell junctions in cultured human and mouse endothelial cells. Here, we demonstrate that the vascular endothelial (VE) cadherin/catenin complex targets caveolin-1 to endothelial cell junctions. Association of caveolin-1 with VE-cadherin/catenin complexes is essential for the barrier function decrease in response to the pro-inflammatory mediator thrombin, which causes a reorganization of the complex in a rope ladder-like pattern accompanied by a loss of junction-associated actin filaments. Mechanistically, we show that in response to thrombin stimulation the protease-activated receptor 1 (PAR-1) causes phosphorylation of caveolin-1, which increasingly associates with β- and γ-catenin. Consequently, the association of β- and γ-catenin with VE-cadherin is weakened, thus allowing junction reorganization and a decrease in barrier function. Thrombin-induced opening of cell junctions is lost in caveolin-1-knockout endothelial cells and after expression of a Y/F-caveolin-1 mutant but is completely reconstituted after expression of wild-type caveolin-1.¦CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the pivotal role of caveolin-1 in VE-cadherin-mediated cell adhesion via catenins and, in turn, in barrier function regulation.

Multifunctional mitoxantrone-conjugated magnetic nanosystem for targeted therapy of folate receptor-overexpressing malignant cells.

BACKGROUND: Targeted delivery of anticancer chemotherapeutics such as mitoxantrone (MTX) can significantly intensify their cytotoxic effects selectively in solid tumors such as breast cancer. In the current study, folic acid (FA)-armed and MTX-conjugated magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) were engineered for targeted eradication of folate receptor (FR)-positive cancerous cells. Polyethylene glycol (PEG), FA and MTX were covalently conjugated onto the MNPs to engineer the PEGylated FA-MTX-MNPs. The internalization studies were performed using fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC)-labeled FA-decorated MNPs (FA-FITC-MNPs) in both FR-positive MCF-7 cells and FR-negative A549 cells by means of fluorescence microscopy and flow cytometry. The cellular and molecular impacts of FA-MTX-MNPs were examined using trypan blue cell viability and FITC-labeled annexin V apoptosis assays and 4',6-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI) staining, DNA ladder and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays. RESULTS: The FR-positive MCF-7 cells showed significant internalization of the FA-FITC-MNPs, but not the FR-negative A549 cells. The FR-positive cells treated with the PEGylated FA-MTX-MNPs exhibited the IC50 values of 3 μg/mL and 1.7 μg/mL, 24 h and 48 h post-treatment, respectively. DAPI staining and DNA ladder assays revealed significant condensation of nucleus and fragmentation of genomic DNA in the FR-positive MCF-7 cells treated with the PEGylated FA-MTX-MNPs as compared to the FR-negative A549 cells. The FITC-labeled annexin V assay confirmed emergence of late apoptosis (>80%) in the FR-positive MCF-7 cells treated with the PEGylated FA-MTX-MNPs, but not in the FR-negative A549 cells. The qPCR analysis confirmed profound cytotoxic impacts via alterations of apoptosis-related genes induced by MTX-FA-MNPs in MCF-7 cells, but not in the A549 cells. CONCLUSION: Our findings evince that the engineered PEGylated FA-MTX-MNPs can be specifically taken up by the FR-positive malignant cells and effectively demolish them through up-regulation of Bcl-2-associated X protein (Bax) and Caspase 9 and down-regulation of AKt. Hence, the engineered nanosystem is proposed for simultaneous targeted imaging and therapy of various cancers overexpressing FRs.