Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Cost-effectiveness of the implementation of an enhanced recovery protocol for colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced recovery protocols may reduce postoperative complications and length of hospital stay. However, the implementation of these protocols requires time and financial investment. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of enhanced recovery implementation. METHODS: The first 50 consecutive patients treated during implementation of an enhanced recovery programme were compared with 50 consecutive patients treated in the year before its introduction. The enhanced recovery protocol principally implemented preoperative counselling, reduced preoperative fasting, preoperative carbohydrate loading, avoidance of premedication, optimized fluid balance, standardized postoperative analgesia, use of a no-drain policy, as well as early nutrition and mobilization. Length of stay, readmissions and complications within 30 days were compared. A cost-minimization analysis was performed. RESULTS: Hospital stay was significantly shorter in the enhanced recovery group: median 7 (interquartile range 5-12) versus 10 (7-18) days (P = 0·003); two patients were readmitted in each group. The rate of severe complications was lower in the enhanced recovery group (12 versus 20 per cent), but there was no difference in overall morbidity. The mean saving per patient in the enhanced recovery group was euro1651. CONCLUSION: Enhanced recovery is cost-effective, with savings evident even in the initial implementation period.

Early maternal investment in mice: no evidence for compatible-genes sexual selection despite hybrid vigor.

Confronting a recently mated female with a strange male can induce a pregnancy block ('Bruce effect'). The physiology of this effect is well studied, but its functional significance is still not fully understood. The 'anticipated infanticide hypothesis' suggests that the pregnancy block serves to avoid the cost of embryogenesis and giving birth to offspring that are likely to be killed by a new territory holder. Some 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses' suggest that the likelihood of a pregnancy block is also dependent on the female's perception of the stud's and the stimulus male's genetic quality. We used two inbred strains of mice (C57BL/6 and BALB/c) to test all possible combinations of female strain, stud strain, and stimulus strain under experimental conditions (N(total) = 241 mated females). As predicted from previous studies, we found increased rates of pregnancy blocks if stud and stimulus strains differed, and we found evidence for hybrid vigour in offspring of between-strain mating. Despite the observed heterosis, pregnancies of within-strain matings were not more likely to be blocked than pregnancies of between-strain matings. A power analysis revealed that if we missed an existing effect (type-II error), the effect must be very small. If a female gave birth, the number and weight of newborns were not significantly influenced by the stimulus males. In conclusion, we found no support for the 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses'.

Constraint and cost of oxidative stress on reproduction: correlative evidence in laboratory mice and review of the literature.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: One central concept in evolutionary ecology is that current and residual reproductive values are negatively linked by the so-called cost of reproduction. Previous studies examining the nature of this cost suggested a possible involvement of oxidative stress resulting from the imbalance between pro- and anti-oxidant processes. Still, data remain conflictory probably because, although oxidative damage increases during reproduction, high systemic levels of oxidative stress might also constrain parental investment in reproduction. Here, we investigated variation in oxidative balance (i.e. oxidative damage and antioxidant defences) over the course of reproduction by comparing female laboratory mice rearing or not pups. RESULTS: A significant increase in oxidative damage over time was only observed in females caring for offspring, whereas antioxidant defences increased over time regardless of reproductive status. Interestingly, oxidative damage measured prior to reproduction was negatively associated with litter size at birth (constraint), whereas damage measured after reproduction was positively related to litter size at weaning (cost). CONCLUSIONS: Globally, our correlative results and the review of literature describing the links between reproduction and oxidative stress underline the importance of timing/dynamics when studying and interpreting oxidative balance in relation to reproduction. Our study highlights the duality (constraint and cost) of oxidative stress in life-history trade-offs, thus supporting the theory that oxidative stress plays a key role in life-history evolution.

Social Investment Policies in Times of Permanent Austerity

The objective of this paper is to identify the political conditions that are most likely to be conducive to the development of social investment policies. It starts from the view put forward by theorists of welfare retrenchment that in the current context of permanent austerity, policy is likely to be dominated by retrenchment and implemented in a way that allows governments to minimise the risk of electoral punishment (blame avoidance). It is argued that this view is inconsistent with developments observed in several European countries, were some welfare state expansion has taken place mostly in the fields of childcare and active labour market policy. An alternative model is put forward, that emphasises the notion of "affordable credit claiming". It is argued that even under strong budgetary pressures, governments maintain a preference for policies that allow them to claim credit for their actions. Since the traditional redistributive policies tend to be off the menu for cost reasons, governments have tended to favour investments in childcare and active labour market policy as credit claiming tools. Policies developed in this way while they have a social investment flavour, tend to be rather limited in the extent to which they genuinely improve prospects of disadvantaged people by investing in their human capital. A more ambitious strategy of social investment sees unlikely to develop on the basis of affordable credit claiming. The paper starts by presenting the theoretical argument, which is then illustrated with examples taken from European countries both in the pre-crisis and in the post-crisis years.

Implementation of enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) in colorectal surgery is highly cost-effective

Objective: Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) clinical pathways in¦colorectal surgery are known to reduce postoperative complications leading¦to shortened hospital stay. However, the implementation of such an ERAS¦pathway requires time and financial investment. This study evaluates whether¦the savings related to the reduction in the length of stay (LOS) outweigh the¦costs of implementing an ERAS pathway.¦Methods: An ERAS pathway was implemented in our institution for colorectal¦surgery. The first 50 consecutive patients subjected to this ERAS pathway¦(ERAS group) were compared to 50 consecutive patients that were operated one¦year before its introduction (control group). Primary LOS, readmission within¦30 days, and total costs based on costs per day were compared. The mean costs¦per day were: 3,263 CHF for intensive care, 1,152 CHF for intermediate care,¦and 728 CHF for basic care.¦Results: Primary LOS was shorter in the ERAS group than in the control¦group: median 7 (interquartile range 5-12·25) versus 10 (7-18) days (P =¦0·0025). The readmission within 30 postoperative days was similar in both¦groups (2 patients each). In the ERAS group, the added primary LOS was¦485 days (379 in basic care, 99 in intermediate care, 7 in intensive care) compared¦to 706 days in the control group (533 in basic care, 146 in intermediate care,¦27 in intensive care). The total costs were significantly lower for the 50 ERAS¦patients compared to the control group: 412,801 CHF versus 644,317 CHF (P <¦0·01). Investments required for the 50 first ERAS patients were approximately¦83,544 CHF, including 348 working hours as well a full-time ERAS dedicated¦nurse. The overall cost saving was approximately 2,959 CHF per patient.¦Conclusion: Implementation of an ERAS pathway significantly reduced LOS¦after colorectal surgery. The financial investment to introduce and maintain¦such a pathway is clearly inferior to the cost-saving of reduced hospital stay.

Cost-effectiveness of surgery in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in provision of essential surgical care as part of public health policy in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Relatively simple interventions have been shown to prevent death and disability. We reviewed the published literature to examine the cost-effectiveness of simple surgical interventions which could be made available at any district hospital, and compared these to standard public health interventions. METHODS: PubMed and EMBASE were searched using single and combinations of the search terms "disability adjusted life year" (DALY), "quality adjusted life year," "cost-effectiveness," and "surgery." Articles were included if they detailed the cost-effectiveness of a surgical intervention of relevance to a LMIC, which could be made available at any district hospital. Suitable articles with both cost and effectiveness data were identified and, where possible, data were extrapolated to enable comparison across studies. RESULTS: Twenty-seven articles met our inclusion criteria, representing 64 LMIC over 16 years of study. Interventions that were found to be cost-effective included cataract surgery (cost/DALY averted range US$5.06-$106.00), elective inguinal hernia repair (cost/DALY averted range US$12.88-$78.18), male circumcision (cost/DALY averted range US$7.38-$319.29), emergency cesarean section (cost/DALY averted range US$18-$3,462.00), and cleft lip and palate repair (cost/DALY averted range US$15.44-$96.04). A small district hospital with basic surgical services was also found to be highly cost-effective (cost/DALY averted 1 US$0.93), as were larger hospitals offering emergency and trauma surgery (cost/DALY averted US$32.78-$223.00). This compares favorably with other standard public health interventions, such as oral rehydration therapy (US$1,062.00), vitamin A supplementation (US$6.00-$12.00), breast feeding promotion (US$930.00), and highly active anti-retroviral therapy for HIV (US$922.00). CONCLUSIONS: Simple surgical interventions that are life-saving and disability-preventing should be considered as part of public health policy in LMIC. We recommend an investment in surgical care and its integration with other public health measures at the district hospital level, rather than investment in single disease strategies.

Comparing impact and cost-effectiveness of primary prevention strategies for lipid-lowering.

BACKGROUND: Lipid-lowering therapy is costly but effective at reducing coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness and public health impact of Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) guidelines and compare with a range of risk- and age-based alternative strategies. DESIGN: The CHD Policy Model, a Markov-type cost-effectiveness model. DATA SOURCES: National surveys (1999 to 2004), vital statistics (2000), the Framingham Heart Study (1948 to 2000), other published data, and a direct survey of statin costs (2008). TARGET POPULATION: U.S. population age 35 to 85 years. Time Horizon: 2010 to 2040. PERSPECTIVE: Health care system. INTERVENTION: Lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). OUTCOME MEASURE: Incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Full adherence to ATP III primary prevention guidelines would require starting (9.7 million) or intensifying (1.4 million) statin therapy for 11.1 million adults and would prevent 20,000 myocardial infarctions and 10,000 CHD deaths per year at an annual net cost of $3.6 billion ($42,000/QALY) if low-intensity statins cost $2.11 per pill. The ATP III guidelines would be preferred over alternative strategies if society is willing to pay $50,000/QALY and statins cost $1.54 to $2.21 per pill. At higher statin costs, ATP III is not cost-effective; at lower costs, more liberal statin-prescribing strategies would be preferred; and at costs less than $0.10 per pill, treating all persons with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels greater than 3.4 mmol/L (>130 mg/dL) would yield net cost savings. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results are sensitive to the assumptions that LDL cholesterol becomes less important as a risk factor with increasing age and that little disutility results from taking a pill every day. LIMITATION: Randomized trial evidence for statin effectiveness is not available for all subgroups. CONCLUSION: The ATP III guidelines are relatively cost-effective and would have a large public health impact if implemented fully in the United States. Alternate strategies may be preferred, however, depending on the cost of statins and how much society is willing to pay for better health outcomes. FUNDING: Flight Attendants' Medical Research Institute and the Swanson Family Fund. The Framingham Heart Study and Framingham Offspring Study are conducted and supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Cost-effectiveness of low-molecular-weight heparin for secondary prophylaxis of cancer-related venous thromboembolism.

Although extended secondary prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin was recently shown to be more effective than warfarin for cancer-related venous thromboembolism, its cost-effectiveness compared to traditional prophylaxis with warfarin is uncertain. We built a decision analytic model to evaluate the clinical and economic outcomes of a 6-month course of low-molecular-weight heparin or warfarin therapy in 65-year-old patients with cancer-related venous thromboembolism. We used probability estimates and utilities reported in the literature and published cost data. Using a US societal perspective, we compared strategies based on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and lifetime costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of low-molecular-weight heparin compared with warfarin was 149,865 dollars/QALY. Low-molecular-weight heparin yielded a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 1.097 QALYs at the cost of 15,329 dollars. Overall, 46% (7108 dollars) of the total costs associated with low-molecular-weight heparin were attributable to pharmacy costs. Although the low-molecular-weigh heparin strategy achieved a higher incremental quality-adjusted life expectancy than the warfarin strategy (difference of 0.051 QALYs), this clinical benefit was offset by a substantial cost increment of 7,609 dollars. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to variation of the early mortality risks associated with low-molecular-weight heparin and warfarin and the pharmacy costs for low-molecular-weight heparin. Based on the best available evidence, secondary prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin is more effective than warfarin for cancer-related venous thromboembolism. However, because of the substantial pharmacy costs of extended low-molecular-weight heparin prophylaxis in the US, this treatment is relatively expensive compared with warfarin.

The costs of parasitism and anti-parasitic defense in the common vole

Résumé : Les relations entre un parasite et son hôte sont avant tout marquées par le coût pour l'hôte que représente la ponction de ressources au profit du parasite et ses conséquences sur les traits d'histoires de vie de l'hôte. Pour contenir la réduction de leur valeur reproductive, les hôtes ont acquis au cours de l'évolution des mécanismes soit de lutte contre les parasites, soit de réallocations des ressources. Curieusement les effets des ectoparasites sur la biologie de mammifères ont été peu étudiés. Dans une première expérience à long terme, nous avons examiné sous un angle intégratif si les puces Nosopsyllus fasciatus affectent certains paramètres physiologiques des campagnols des champs Microtus arvalis. Nous avons également testé si les puces peuvent réduire la longévité et si oui, si ce pourrait être dû à une accélération de la sénescence. Ensuite nous avons testé si la simple activation répétée du système immunitaire comme lors d'une infestation chronique pouvait aussi réduire la longévité. Dans une dernière expérience, nous avons d'abord testé si l'infestation par des puces de jeunes campagnols au stade néonatal (21 jours) pouvait modifier leur développement et leur phénotype adulte. Puis nous avons testé si la modification du phénotype adulte est une réponse prédite et potentiellement adaptative pour minimiser les effets des puces à l'âge adulte. Nos résultats montrent que l'infestation par des puces réduit la croissance subadulte, induit une forte anémie et une immunodépression, et augmente le métabolisme de repos. De plus les puces réduisent la longévité et la taille des testicules, réduisant fortement le succès reproducteur potentiel des individus parasités. La taille finale, c'est-à-dire le développement pré-adulte, détermine en grande part la longévité. La réduction de longévité ne devrait pas être due à l'investissement au profit du système immunitaire car l'activation chronique seule du système immunitaire ne réduit pas la longévité. L'infestation néonatale retarde légèrement le développement mais surtout modifie l'hématocrite et réduit les performances locomotrices des campagnols plus de 3 mois après l'infestation. Les effets immédiats du parasitisme sur la physiologie semblent bien supérieurs comparés aux effets à long terme. Nous n'avons pas d'éléments permettant d'affirmer que le parasitisme néonatal prépare les campagnols à faire face aux puces à l'âge adulte. Au contraire, le parasitisme néonatal interagit sur le parasitisme adulte pour augmenter le métabolisme de repos. Cette thèse offre une vision intégrative des mécanismes par lesquels les puces peuvent affecter la valeur reproductive de leurs hôtes. De façon générale, ces résultats 35 montrent l'importance des puces comme force de sélection chez les campagnols. Il est indispensable de prendre en compte les ectoparasites dans l'étude de l'écologie et des dynamiques de populations chez les mammifères. Summary : The relationship between a parasite and its host is fundamentally marked by the costs for host of the withdrawals of resources by parasite and the subsequent reduction in host life-history traits. Hosts have evolved a number of strategies to reduce these costs, either by fighting against the parasite directly or by reallocating resources to reduce costs on lifetime reproductive value. The effects of ectoparasites on burrowing mammals have been scarcely studied. In a first long-term experiment, we examined how fleas Nosopsyllus fasciatus affect physiological levels of the common vole, Microtus arvalis. We also examined whether fleas reduce longevity and if so, if it is due to an early senescence pattern. Then we tested if experimental activation of the immune system by repeated injections of an antigen could result in a shorter longevity. In the last experiment, we tested if short-lasting neonatal parasitism can have long-term effects on phenotype, and if these effects could induce a predictive response to reduce damages when parasitized at the adult stage. We found that parasitism by flea reduced subadult growth, induced anaemia and immunodepression, and increased energy consumption even when resting. Moreover fleas reduce longevity and testes size associated to splenomegaly, suggesting an overall reduction in fitness but we did not find any pattern of accelerated senescence explaining the early death of parasitized voles compared to non-parasitzed. The cost of mounting an immune response throughout life does not impair longevity, suggesting that it is the cost of parasitism that limits the longevity and not the immune investment. Neonatal infestation by fleas has long-term effects on physiology and reduces motor activity more than 3 months after infestation. The modification of physiology due to long-term effects seems weak compared to the immediate effects of adult infestation. We found no evidence that neonatal parasitism prepares voles to mount a predictive adaptive response in order to reduce effects of fleas on fitness components. On the contrary, neonatal parasitism seems to worsen the effect of adult parasitism. This thesis offers an integrative view of mechanisms by which fleas affect their host at the individual level. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of fleas as a selective force in voles. These results highlight the importance of ectoparasitism in ecology of micromarnrnals and suggest a role in the dynamic of host populations.

Comparative cost-effectiveness analyses of cardiovascular magnetic resonance and coronary angiography combined with fractional flow reserve for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: According to recent guidelines, patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) should undergo revascularization if significant myocardial ischemia is present. Both, cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and fractional flow reserve (FFR) allow for a reliable ischemia assessment and in combination with anatomical information provided by invasive coronary angiography (CXA), such a work-up sets the basis for a decision to revascularize or not. The cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies is compared. METHODS: Strategy 1) CMR to assess ischemia followed by CXA in ischemia-positive patients (CMR + CXA), Strategy 2) CXA followed by FFR in angiographically positive stenoses (CXA + FFR). The costs, evaluated from the third party payer perspective in Switzerland, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US), included public prices of the different outpatient procedures and costs induced by procedural complications and by diagnostic errors. The effectiveness criterion was the correct identification of hemodynamically significant coronary lesion(s) (= significant CAD) complemented by full anatomical information. Test performances were derived from the published literature. Cost-effectiveness ratios for both strategies were compared for hypothetical cohorts with different pretest likelihood of significant CAD. RESULTS: CMR + CXA and CXA + FFR were equally cost-effective at a pretest likelihood of CAD of 62% in Switzerland, 65% in Germany, 83% in the UK, and 82% in the US with costs of CHF 5'794, euro 1'517, £ 2'680, and $ 2'179 per patient correctly diagnosed. Below these thresholds, CMR + CXA showed lower costs per patient correctly diagnosed than CXA + FFR. CONCLUSIONS: The CMR + CXA strategy is more cost-effective than CXA + FFR below a CAD prevalence of 62%, 65%, 83%, and 82% for the Swiss, the German, the UK, and the US health care systems, respectively. These findings may help to optimize resource utilization in the diagnosis of CAD.