The use of the likelihood ratio for evaluative and investigative purposes in comparative forensic handwriting examination

This paper extends previous research and discussion on the use of multivariate continuous data, which are about to become more prevalent in forensic science. As an illustrative example, attention is drawn here on the area of comparative handwriting examinations. Multivariate continuous data can be obtained in this field by analysing the contour shape of loop characters through Fourier analysis. This methodology, based on existing research in this area, allows one describe in detail the morphology of character contours throughout a set of variables. This paper uses data collected from female and male writers to conduct a comparative analysis of likelihood ratio based evidence assessment procedures in both, evaluative and investigative proceedings. While the use of likelihood ratios in the former situation is now rather well established (typically, in order to discriminate between propositions of authorship of a given individual versus another, unknown individual), focus on the investigative setting still remains rather beyond considerations in practice. This paper seeks to highlight that investigative settings, too, can represent an area of application for which the likelihood ratio can offer a logical support. As an example, the inference of gender of the writer of an incriminated handwritten text is forwarded, analysed and discussed in this paper. The more general viewpoint according to which likelihood ratio analyses can be helpful for investigative proceedings is supported here through various simulations. These offer a characterisation of the robustness of the proposed likelihood ratio methodology.

Reporting Guidance for Oncologic 18F-FDG PET/CT Imaging.

The written report (or its electronic counterpart) is the primary mode of communication between the physician interpreting an imaging study and the referring physician. The content of this report not only influences patient management and clinical outcomes but also serves as legal documentation of services provided and can be used to justify medical necessity, billing accuracy, and regulatory compliance. Generating a high-quality PET/CT report is perhaps more challenging than generating a report for other imaging studies because of the complexity of this hybrid imaging modality. This article discusses the essential elements of a concise and complete oncologic (18)F-FDG PET/CT report and illustrates these elements through examples taken from routine clinical practice.

Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE): explanation and elaboration.

Much medical research is observational. The reporting of observational studies is often of insufficient quality. Poor reporting hampers the assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of a study and the generalisability of its results. Taking into account empirical evidence and theoretical considerations, a group of methodologists, researchers, and editors developed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) recommendations to improve the quality of reporting of observational studies. The STROBE Statement consists of a checklist of 22 items, which relate to the title, abstract, introduction, methods, results and discussion sections of articles. Eighteen items are common to cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies and four are specific to each of the three study designs. The STROBE Statement provides guidance to authors about how to improve the reporting of observational studies and facilitates critical appraisal and interpretation of studies by reviewers, journal editors and readers. This explanatory and elaboration document is intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination of the STROBE Statement. The meaning and rationale for each checklist item are presented. For each item, one or several published examples and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies and methodological literature are provided. Examples of useful flow diagrams are also included. The STROBE Statement, this document, and the associated Web site (http://www.strobe-statement.org/) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of observational research.

Cohort study of trials submitted to ethics committee identified discrepant reporting of outcomes in publications.

OBJECTIVES: To identify factors associated with discrepant outcome reporting in randomized drug trials. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Cohort study of protocols submitted to a Swiss ethics committee 1988-1998: 227 protocols and amendments were compared with 333 matching articles published during 1990-2008. Discrepant reporting was defined as addition, omission, or reclassification of outcomes. RESULTS: Overall, 870 of 2,966 unique outcomes were reported discrepantly (29.3%). Among protocol-defined primary outcomes, 6.9% were not reported (19 of 274), whereas 10.4% of reported outcomes (30 of 288) were not defined in the protocol. Corresponding percentages for secondary outcomes were 19.0% (284 of 1,495) and 14.1% (334 of 2,375). Discrepant reporting was more likely if P values were <0.05 compared with P ≥ 0.05 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.78], more likely for efficacy compared with harm outcomes (aOR: 2.99; 95% CI: 2.08, 4.30) and more likely for composite than for single outcomes (aOR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.20). Cardiology (aOR: 2.34; 95% CI: 1.44, 3.79) and infectious diseases (aOR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.13) had more discrepancies compared with all specialties combined. CONCLUSION: Discrepant reporting was associated with statistical significance of results, type of outcome, and specialty area. Trial protocols should be made freely available, and the publications should describe and justify any changes made to protocol-defined outcomes.

Subjective pubertal timing and health-compromising behaviours among Swiss adolescent girls reporting an on-time objective pubertal timing.

Aim:  The aim of this research is to assess the associations between subjective pubertal timing (SPT) and onset of health-compromising behaviours among girls reporting an on-time objective pubertal timing (OPT). Methods:  Data were drawn from the Swiss SMASH 2002 survey, a self-administered questionnaire study conducted among a nationally representative sample of 7548 adolescents aged 16-20 years. From the 3658 girls in the initial sample, we selected only those (n = 1003) who provided information about SPT and who reported the average age at menarche, namely 13, considering this as an on-time OPT. Bivariate and logistic analyses were conducted to compare the early, on-time and late SPT groups in terms of onset of health-compromising behaviours. Results:  A perception of pubertal precocity was associated with sexual intercourse before age 16 [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.10 (1.30-3.37)] and early use of illegal drugs other than cannabis [AOR: 2.55 (1.30-5.02)]. Conversely, girls perceiving their puberty as late were less likely to report intercourse before age 16 [AOR: 0.30 (0.12-0.75)]. Conclusion:  Faced with an adolescent girl perceiving her puberty as early, the practitioner should investigate the existence of health-compromising behaviours even if her puberty is or was objectively on-time.

ITMIG consensus statement on the use of the WHO histological classification of thymoma and thymic carcinoma: refined definitions, histological criteria, and reporting.

INTRODUCTION: The 2004 version of the World Health Organization classification subdivides thymic epithelial tumors into A, AB, B1, B2, and B3 (and rare other) thymomas and thymic carcinomas (TC). Due to a morphological continuum between some thymoma subtypes and some morphological overlap between thymomas and TC, a variable proportion of cases may pose problems in classification, contributing to the poor interobserver reproducibility in some studies. METHODS: To overcome this problem, hematoxylin-eosin-stained and immunohistochemically processed sections of prototypic, "borderland," and "combined" thymomas and TC (n = 72) were studied by 18 pathologists at an international consensus slide workshop supported by the International Thymic Malignancy Interest Group. RESULTS: Consensus was achieved on refined criteria for decision making at the A/AB borderland, the distinction between B1, B2, and B3 thymomas and the separation of B3 thymomas from TCs. "Atypical type A thymoma" is tentatively proposed as a new type A thymoma variant. New reporting strategies for tumors with more than one histological pattern are proposed. CONCLUSION: These guidelines can set the stage for reproducibility studies and the design of a clinically meaningful grading system for thymic epithelial tumors.

Systematic review of the empirical evidence of study publication bias and outcome reporting bias - an updated review.

BACKGROUND: The increased use of meta-analysis in systematic reviews of healthcare interventions has highlighted several types of bias that can arise during the completion of a randomised controlled trial. Study publication bias and outcome reporting bias have been recognised as a potential threat to the validity of meta-analysis and can make the readily available evidence unreliable for decision making. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this update, we review and summarise the evidence from cohort studies that have assessed study publication bias or outcome reporting bias in randomised controlled trials. Twenty studies were eligible of which four were newly identified in this update. Only two followed the cohort all the way through from protocol approval to information regarding publication of outcomes. Fifteen of the studies investigated study publication bias and five investigated outcome reporting bias. Three studies have found that statistically significant outcomes had a higher odds of being fully reported compared to non-significant outcomes (range of odds ratios: 2.2 to 4.7). In comparing trial publications to protocols, we found that 40-62% of studies had at least one primary outcome that was changed, introduced, or omitted. We decided not to undertake meta-analysis due to the differences between studies. CONCLUSIONS: This update does not change the conclusions of the review in which 16 studies were included. Direct empirical evidence for the existence of study publication bias and outcome reporting bias is shown. There is strong evidence of an association between significant results and publication; studies that report positive or significant results are more likely to be published and outcomes that are statistically significant have higher odds of being fully reported. Publications have been found to be inconsistent with their protocols. Researchers need to be aware of the problems of both types of bias and efforts should be concentrated on improving the reporting of trials.

Overweight and eating disorders in primary care: a sentinella reporting in 2-20 years old patients

Aims: To describe overweight or eating disorders in primary care consultations of Swiss children or adolescents and analyze responses by physicians. Methods: 150 to 200 primary care physicians participating in the Swiss Sentinel Surveillance Network in collaboration with the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health register their consultations over one year for selected health conditions. We describe reports of consultations where overweight or eating disorders were identified in subjects aged 2-20 years by physicians, patients or their relatives, or referring professionals, between 29.12.2007 and 15.2.2008. Results: 189 consultations were registered in the first 7 weeks of declaration. A short majority concerned female (58%) and 12-20 years old (53%) patients. Half were reported by pediatricians, one third by general practitioners and the remaining minority by internists. The sample included two thirds of Swiss-German and one third of Swiss-French cases. In the male subgroup aged 2-20 and in female children aged 2-11, almost all reported consultations were characterized by overweight. Among female teenagers, underweight was reported in 29% whilst overweight was recorded in 60%. Anorexia was noted in 68% of reported consultations of underweight female teenagers. In underweight patients, advice given by physicians frequently covered both nutrition and physical activity (38%) or nutrition only (29%), while no specific recommendations were recorded for the remaining third. In case of overweight, for one half of consultations patients received both nutritional and physical activity recommendations, for 12% nutritional only, and for one quarter patients were not advised in these domains. No specific treatment was usually proposed to overweight patients (65%), except when bulimia was diagnosed; in such case, one third of patients were proposed a psychological/psychiatric treatment, whereas both psychological and pharmacological treatments were frequently offered for underweight teenagers. Therapy was most often motivated by physicians (50%) or by relatives (44%), more rarely by patients themselves (7%). Conclusions: These preliminary data indicate that in some primary care consultations of young patients with overweight or eating disorders, advice was not given on nutrition and physical activity. This observation needs to be later confirmed with the totality of the consultations registered in 2008 and reasons will be further investigated.

Bayes factor for investigative assessment of selected handwriting features

This paper extends previous research [1] on the use of multivariate continuous data in comparative handwriting examinations, notably for gender classification. A database has been constructed by analyzing the contour shape of loop characters of type a and d by means of Fourier analysis, which allows characters to be described in a global way by a set of variables (e.g., Fourier descriptors). Sample handwritings were collected from right- and left-handed female and male writers. The results reported in this paper provide further arguments in support of the view that investigative settings in forensic science represent an area of application for which the Bayesian approach offers a logical framework. In particular, the Bayes factor is computed for settings that focus on inference of gender and handedness of the author of an incriminated handwritten text. An emphasis is placed on comparing the efficiency for investigative purposes of characters a and d.

Current practice in neuropsychological outcome reporting after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Neuropsychological deficits (NPD) are common in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). NPD are one of the major limiting factors for patients with an otherwise acceptable prognosis for sustained quality of life. There are only a few studies reporting outcome after aSAH, which used a standardized neuropsychological test battery as a primary or secondary outcome measure. Aim of this study was to determine the current practice of reporting NPD following aSAH in clinical studies. METHODS: A MEDLINE analysis was performed using the search term "subarachnoid haemorrhage outcome". The latest 1,000 articles were screened. We recorded study design, number of patients, and the presence of neuropsychological outcome report. Additionally, the time of testing after aSAH, the neuropsychological tests administered, as well as the percentage of patients with NPD were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 324 publications between 2009 and 2012 were selected for further review. Of those, 21 studies (6.5%) reported neuropsychological outcome, in 2,001 of 346,666 patients (0.6%). The assessment of NPD differed broadly using both subjective and objective cognitive evaluation, and a large variety of tests were used. CONCLUSION: Neuropsychological outcome is underreported, and there is great variety in assessment in currently published clinical articles on aSAH. Prospective randomized trials treating aSAH may benefit from implementing more comprehensive and standardized neuropsychological outcome measures. This approach might identify otherwise unnoticed treatment effects in future interventional studies of aSAH patients.