Approaching invasive species in Madagascar

While a number of plants, animals, and insects in Madagascar have been called 'invasive', the topic of invasive species has until recently received less attention here than in other island contexts. Some species, often alien to Madagascar and introduced by humans, have expanded their range rapidly and have had both negative and positive effects on landscapes, on native biodiversity, and on livelihoods. Examples include the prickly pear (raketa), the silver wattle (mimosa), and, recently, the Asian common toad (radaka boka). Building on a conceptual approach to 'invasive species', this paper emphasizes the importance of inclusive and deliberative site- and population - specific management of invasive species. It analyses three separate concepts commonly used in definitions of invasion: the origin, behaviour, and effects of particular species. It places these concepts in their broader social and ecological context, with particular attention to local perspectives on invasive species. We illustrate these concepts with Malagasy examples and data. The examples demonstrate that while invasions can have dramatic consequences, there can be multiple, often competing, interests as well as site - specific biophysical, environmental, and cultural considerations that need to be taken into account when designing policy and management interventions. We conclude with a number of lessons learned. RESUME FRANCAIS Contrairement à la plupart des autres îles, et en dépit du qualificatif 'invasif' rattaché depuis longtemps à certaines espèces qui s'y sont naturalisées, les réflexions autour de l'approche des espèces invasives à Madagascar demeurent récentes. L'opuntia (Opuntia spp.) figure certes parmi les plus anciens exemples d'espèces traités dans la littérature sur les invasions biologiques. Mais ce n'est vraiment qu'avec le retentissement médiatique autour de la détection en 2011 de la présence du crapaud masqué (Duttaphrynus melanostictus) et la recherche d'une parade appropriée que s'est affirmée la nécessité de traiter cette question des espèces invasives en tant que telle. Une posture nativiste et uniforme qui ignorerait la spécificité des contextes biophysiques et socio - économiques locaux, mais aussi la pluralité des formes d'invasion biologique et des défi- nitions qui s'y rattachent, ne saurait être privilégiée. L'article montre qu'il s'agit de situer les réflexions dans un contexte insulaire socio - économique dans lequel les espèces allogènes tiennent depuis longtemps une large place. Il défend en outre la nécessité d'envisager les espèces invasives non pas selon une forme de perception unique et autoritariste, mais selon une diversité de points de vue, conforme aux conflits d'intérêts qui se manifestent parfois, et mettant plutôt en avant le caractère exogène des espèces invasives, leurs effets (négatifs, mais aussi positifs) sur le milieu, ou leur mode de fonctionnement (disper- sion, dominance) dans des contextes spécifiques et locaux. Il convient en particulier d'observer qu'aux coûts générés par les invasions biologiques peuvent s'ajouter des bénéfices économiques, et que les impacts écologiques néfastes peuvent se combiner avec des incidences heureuses, y compris auprès d'espèces indigènes en situation critique. En outre, le point de vue des populations humaines, leur connaissance d'espèces invasives quotidiennement rencontrées, leur réticence à scin- der le vivant en espèces indigènes et allogène, mais aussi leur vision pragmatique, ne sauraient être mésestimés, et moins encore oubliés. Enfin, l'article invite à prendre du recul face aux effets rhétoriques liés aux discours conventionnels sur les inva- sions biologiques, à éviter les amalgames et les généralisations excessives, à tenir compte des contraintes environnementales mais aussi des aspirations socio - économiques des populations locales, et à prendre en compte la diversité des spécificités locales, qu'elles soient biophysiques ou sociales. En conclusion, il est sans doute heureux que Madagascar n'ait rejoint que très récemment la mouvance internationale des réflexions sur les espèces invasives : cela lui permet en effet d'être en mesure de disposer d'une position équilibrée, déjouant certains discours catastrophistes, et préférant une approche résolument contextualisée, à l'échelle nationale comme aux échelles régionales.

Complex patterns of global spread in invasive insects: eco-evolutionary and management consequences

The advent of simple and affordable tools for molecular identification of novel insect invaders and assessment of population diversity has changed the face of invasion biology in recent years. The widespread application of these tools has brought with it an emerging understanding that patterns in biogeography, introduction history and subsequent movement and spread of many invasive alien insects are far more complex than previously thought. We reviewed the literature and found that for a number of invasive insects, there is strong and growing evidence that multiple introductions, complex global movement, and population admixture in the invaded range are commonplace. Additionally, historical paradigms related to species and strain identities and origins of common invaders are in many cases being challenged. This has major consequences for our understanding of basic biology and ecology of invasive insects and impacts quarantine, management and biocontrol programs. In addition, we found that founder effects rarely limit fitness in invasive insects and may benefit populations (by purging harmful alleles or increasing additive genetic variance). Also, while phenotypic plasticity appears important post-establishment, genetic diversity in invasive insects is often higher than expected and increases over time via multiple introductions. Further, connectivity among disjunct regions of global invasive ranges is generally far higher than expected and is often asymmetric, with some populations contributing disproportionately to global spread. We argue that the role of connectivity in driving the ecology and evolution of introduced species with multiple invasive ranges has been historically underestimated and that such species are often best understood in a global context.

Nonenzymatic oxidation of trienoic fatty acids contributes to reactive oxygen species management in Arabidopsis.

In higher plants such as Arabidopsis thaliana, omega-3 trienoic fatty acids (TFAs), represented mainly by alpha-linolenic acid, serve as precursors of jasmonic acid (JA), a potent lipid signal molecule essential for defense. The JA-independent roles of TFAs were investigated by comparing the TFA- and JA-deficient fatty acid desaturase triple mutant (fad3-2 fad7-2 fad8 (fad3 fad7 fad8)) with the aos (allene oxide synthase) mutant that contains TFAs but is JA-deficient. When challenged with the fungus Botrytis, resistance of the fad3 fad7 fad8 mutant was reduced when compared with the aos mutant, suggesting that TFAs play a role in cell survival independently of being the precursors of JA. An independent genetic approach using the lesion mimic mutant accelerated cell death2 (acd2-2) confirmed the importance of TFAs in containing lesion spread, which was increased in the lines in which the fad3 fad7 fad8 and acd2-2 mutations were combined when compared with the aos acd2-2 lines. Malondialdehyde, found to result from oxidative TFA fragmentation during lesion formation, was measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Its levels correlated with the survival of the tissue. Furthermore, plants lacking TFAs overproduced salicylic acid (SA), hydrogen peroxide, and transcripts encoding several SA-regulated and SA biosynthetic proteins. The data suggest a physiological role for TFAs as sinks for reactive oxygen species.

Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments.

Risk maps summarizing landscape suitability of novel areas for invading species can be valuable tools for preventing species' invasions or controlling their spread, but methods employed for development of such maps remain variable and unstandardized. We discuss several considerations in development of such models, including types of distributional information that should be used, the nature of explanatory variables that should be incorporated, and caveats regarding model testing and evaluation. We highlight that, in the case of invasive species, such distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using (1) all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions; (2) predictors linked as directly as is feasible to the physiological requirements of the species; and (3) modelling procedures that carefully avoid overfitting to the training data. Finally, model testing and evaluation should focus on well-predicted presences, and less on efficient prediction of absences; a k-fold regional cross-validation test is discussed.

Hierarchic species-area relationships and the management of forest habitat islands in intensive farmland

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species.

Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change

Climate change affects the rate of insect invasions as well as the abundance, distribution and impacts of such invasions on a global scale. Among the principal analytical approaches to predicting and understanding future impacts of biological invasions are Species Distribution Models (SDMs), typically in the form of correlative Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). An underlying assumption of ENMs is that species-environment relationships remain preserved during extrapolations in space and time, although this is widely criticised. The semi-mechanistic modelling platform, CLIMEX, employs a top-down approach using species ecophysiological traits and is able to avoid some of the issues of extrapolation, making it highly applicable to investigating biological invasions in the context of climate change. The tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) comprise some of the most successful invasive species and serious economic pests around the world. Here we project 12 tephritid species CLIMEX models into future climate scenarios to examine overall patterns of climate suitability and forecast potential distributional changes for this group. We further compare the aggregate response of the group against species-specific responses. We then consider additional drivers of biological invasions to examine how invasion potential is influenced by climate, fruit production and trade indices. Considering the group of tephritid species examined here, climate change is predicted to decrease global climate suitability and to shift the cumulative distribution poleward. However, when examining species-level patterns, the predominant directionality of range shifts for 11 of the 12 species is eastward. Most notably, management will need to consider regional changes in fruit fly species invasion potential where high fruit production, trade indices and predicted distributions of these flies overlap.

Introduced freshwater blenny influences the diet and body condition of the invasive dice snake in Lake Geneva

Non-indigenous species can have strong impacts on biodiversity by affecting trophic relationships in their new environments. The piscivorous dice snake (Natrix tessellata) has been introduced to Geneva Lake, western Switzerland, where the endangered viperine snake (Natrix maura) is native. Local, dramatic declines in the viperine snake population might be associated with the appearance of the dice snake through dietary overlap between these 2 species, which mainly feed on bullhead (Cottus gobio). In response to this decline, a control program for dice snake was implemented in 2007 to reduce numbers of this introduced snake. In 2010, a new species of fish, the freshwater blenny (Salaria fluviatilis), which shares the same habitat as the bullhead, was introduced into Lake Geneva and has since reached high densities. We determined the impact of freshwater blenny on diet composition and body condition of dice snakes. In addition, we tested for effects of the control program on the body condition of dice snakes and viperine snakes. We collected 294 dice snakes between 2007 and 2013. Based on morphology and a genetic marker (cytochrome b gene), we determined the ®sh species contained in these snakes' stomachs. We found a drastic switch in dice snake diet following the arrival of freshwater blenny, as consumption of bullhead declined by 68% and was replaced by the blenny. In addition, the body condition of dice snakes increased significantly after the arrival of freshwater blenny. The body condition of both snake species was positively correlated with the number of dice snakes removed from the study area. This finding has important implications concerning the conservation of the endangered viperine snake, and suggests that the control program of dice snakes should be continued.

Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Reduced genetic diversity, increased isolation and multiple introductions of invasive giant hogweed in the western Swiss Alps.

Abstract The giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum) has successfully invaded 19 European countries as well as parts of North America. It has become a problematic species due to its ability to displace native flora and to cause public health hazards. Applying population genetics to species invasion can help reconstruct invasion history and may promote more efficient management practice. We thus analysed levels of genetic variation and population genetic structure of H. mantegazzianum in an invaded area of the western Swiss Alps as well as in its native range (the Caucasus), using eight nuclear microsatellite loci together with plastid DNA markers and sequences. On both nuclear and plastid genomes, native populations exhibited significantly higher levels of genetic diversity compared to invasive populations, confirming an important founder event during the invasion process. Invasive populations were also significantly more differentiated than native populations. Bayesian clustering analysis identified five clusters in the native range that corresponded to geographically and ecologically separated groups. In the invaded range, 10 clusters occurred. Unlike native populations, invasive clusters were characterized by a mosaic pattern in the landscape, possibly caused by anthropogenic dispersal of the species via roads and direct collection for ornamental purposes. Lastly, our analyses revealed four main divergent groups in the western Swiss Alps, likely as a consequence of multiple independent establishments of H. mantegazzianum.

Discovery-dominance trade-off among widespread invasive ant species

Ants are among the most problematic invasive species. They displace numerous native species, alter ecosystem processes, and can have negative impacts on agriculture and human health. In part, their success might stem from a departure from the discovery-dominance trade-off that can promote co-existence in native ant communities, that is, invasive ants are thought to be at the same time behaviorally dominant and faster discoverers of resources, compared to native species. However, it has not yet been tested whether similar asymmetries in behavioral dominance, exploration, and recruitment abilities also exist among invasive species. Here, we establish a dominance hierarchy among four of the most problematic invasive ants (Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Wasmannia auropunctata, Pheidole megacephala) that may be able to arrive and establish in the same areas in the future. To assess behavioral dominance, we used confrontation experiments, testing the aggressiveness in individual and group interactions between all species pairs. In addition, to compare discovery efficiency, we tested the species' capacity to locate a food resource in a maze, and the capacity to recruit nestmates to exploit a food resource. The four species differed greatly in their capacity to discover resources and to recruit nestmates and to dominate the other species. Our results are consistent with a discovery-dominance trade-off. The species that showed the highest level of interspecific aggressiveness and dominance during dyadic interactions.

Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradient is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic environmental filtering. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose to use food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve both species distribution and community forecasts. Most importantly, this combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may be recurrent. Our combined approach points a promising direction forward to model the spatial variation of entire species interaction networks. Our work has implications for studies of range shifting species and invasive species biology where it may be unknown how a given biota might interact with a potential invader or in future climate.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

The MIGCLIM R package - seamless integration of dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models

The MIGCLIM R package is a function library for the open source R software that enables the implementation of species-specific dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models under environmental change and/or landscape fragmentation scenarios. The model is based on a cellular automaton and the basic modeling unit is a cell that is inhabited or not. Model parameters include dispersal distance and kernel, long distance dispersal, barriers to dispersal, propagule production potential and habitat invasibility. The MIGCLIM R package has been designed to be highly flexible in the parameter values it accepts, and to offer good compatibility with existing species distribution modeling software. Possible applications include the projection of future species distributions under environmental change conditions and modeling the spread of invasive species.