When solving 22-7 is much more difficult than 99-12.

We describe the case of a 69-year-old professor of mathematics (GV) who was examined 2 years after left-hemispheric capsular-thalamic haemorrhage. GV showed disproportionate impairment in subtractions requiring borrowing (22 - 7). For large subtraction problems without borrowing (99 - 12) performance was almost flawless. Subtractions with borrowing mostly relied on inadequate attempts to invert subtractions into the corresponding additions (22 - 7 = x as 7 + x = 22). The hypothesis is advanced that difficulty in the inhibitory components of attention tasks (Stroop test, go-no-go task) might be the responsible factor of his calculation impairment. A deficit in subtractions with borrowing might be related to left-hemispheric damage involving thalamo-cortical connections.

Trends in drug consumption and risk of transmission of HIV and hepatitis C virus among injecting drug users in Switzerland, 1993-2006

As a part of the HIV behavioural surveillance system in Switzerland, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000 and 2006 among attenders of all low threshold facilities (LTFs) with needle exchange programmes and/or supervised drug consumption rooms for injection or inhalation in Switzerland. Data were collected in each LTF over five consecutive days, using a questionnaire that was partly completed by an interviewer and partly self administered. The questionnaire was structured around three topics: socio-demographic characteristics, drug consumption, health and risk/preventive behaviour. Analysis was restricted to attenders who had injected drugs during their lifetime (IDUs). Between 1993 and 2006, the median age of IDUs rose by 10 years. IDUs are severely marginalised and their social situation has improved little. The borrowing of used injection equipment (syringe or needle already used by other person) in the last six months decreased (16.5% in 1993, 8.9% in 2006) but stayed stable at around 10% over the past three surveys. Other risk behaviour, such as sharing spoons, cotton or water, was reported more frequently, although also showed a decreasing trend. The reported prevalence of HIV remained fairly stable at around 10% between 1993 and 2006; reported levels of hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence were high (56.4% in 2006). In conclusion, the overall decrease in the practice of injection has reduced the potential for transmission of infections. However as HCV prevalence is high this is of particular concern, as the current behaviour of IDUs indicates a potential for further spreading of the infection. Another noteworthy trend is the significant decrease in condom use in the case of paid sex.

HIV behavioural surveillance in Switzerland: trends in drug consumption, injection and syringe distribution, 1993-2011

Background: As part of the second generation surveillance system for HIV/Aids in Switzerland, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2011 among attenders of all low threshold facilities (LTFs) with needle exchange programmes and/or supervised drug consumption rooms for injection or inhalation. The number of syringes distributed to the injectors has also been measured annually since 2000. Distribution in other settings, such as pharmacies, is also monitored nationally. Methods: Periodic surveys of LTFs have been conducted using an interviewer/self-administered questionnaire structured along four themes: socio-demographic characteristics, drug consumption, risk/preventive behaviour and health. Analysis is restricted to attenders who had injected drugs during their lifetime (IDU´s). Pearson's chi-square test and trend analysis were conducted on annual aggregated data. Trend significance was assessed using Stata's non parametric test nptrend. Results: Median age of IDU´s increased from 26 years in 1993 to 40 in 2011; most are men (78%). Total yearly number of syringes distributed by LTFs has decreased by 44% in 10 years. Use of cocaine has increased (Table 1). Injection, regular use of heroin and borrowing of syringes/needles have decreased, while sharing of other material remains stable. There are fewer new injectors; more IDU´s report substitution treatment. Most attenders had ever been tested for HIV (90% in 1993, 94% in 2011). Reported prevalence of HIV remained stable around 10%; that of HCV decreased from 62% in 2000 to 42% in 2011. Conclusions: Overall, findings indicate a decrease in injection as a means of drug consumption in that population. This interpretation is supported by data from other sources, such as a national decrease in distribution from other delivery points. Switzerland's behavioural surveillance system is sustainable and allows the HIV epidemic to be monitored among this hard-to-reach population, providing information for planning and evaluation.

Crises as a disease of the body politick: a metaphor in the history of nineteenth century economics

This paper examines the use of the medical metaphor in the early theories of crises. It first considers the borrowing of medical terminology and generic references to disease which, notwithstanding their relatively trivial character, illustrate how crises were originally conceived as disturbances (often of a political nature) to a naturally healthy system. Then it shows how a more specific metaphor, the fever of speculation, shifted the emphasis by treating prosperity as the diseased phase, to which crises are a remedy. The metaphor of the epidemic spreading of the disease introduced the theme of the cumulative character of both upswing and downswing, while the similitude with intermittent fevers accounted for the recurring nature of crises. Finally, the paper examines how the medical reflections on the causality of diseases contributed to the epistemology of crises theory, and reflects on the metaphisical shift accompanying the transition from the theories of crises to the theories of cycles.

Swiss behavioural surveillance system 1986-2008

Background: Second generation surveillance is a central feature of HIV/AIDS policy in Switzerland. Behavioural surveys in the general population, men having sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDU) have been regularly conducted since the early nineties. After peaking at 2144 cases in 1991, the number of new HIV cases notified to the Ministry of Health decreased in each subpopulation until 2000 (n=578) and then rose again to 735 in 2006. The recent increase is mainly due to MSM. Methods: In the general population, representative cross-sectional telephone surveys have been conducted 11 times since 1987. Surveys in convenience samples of MSM, recruited through gay newspapers and gay organisations, have been conducted 5 times since 1992. Surveys among IDU's attending needle exchange programmes have been conducted 5 times since 1993. Condom statistics, available since 1986, are included in the behavioural surveillance system. Results: In the general population aged 17-30, systematic condom use with casual partners in the last six months increased from 8.0% in 1987 to 75.8% in 2007. The proportion of MSM reporting anal intercourse with casual partners in the last 12 months increased from 61% in 1992 to 79% in 2007 (lowest value 56% in 1994) and unprotected anal intercourse with these partners increased from 14 % in 1992 to 24% in 2007 (lowest value 9% in 1994). The proportion of IDUs reporting borrowing used injection equipment decreased from 16.5% in 1993 to 8.9% in 2006. The ratio condoms released to retail/population aged 15-65 increased from 1.68 in 1986 to 3.8 in 2006. Conclusions: It has been possible to maintain a coherent behavioural surveillance system on a long-term basis, allowing for the monitoring of HIV prevention policy outcome and forseeing the development and distribution of new HIV cases in the population.

Essays in general equilibrium asset pricing

ABSTRACT : Research in empirical asset pricing has pointed out several anomalies both in the cross section and time series of asset prices, as well as in investors' portfolio choice. This dissertation aims to discover the forces driving some of these "puzzling" asset pricing dynamics and portfolio decisions observed in the financial market. Through the dissertation I construct and study dynamic general equilibrium models of heterogeneous investors in the presence of frictions and evaluate quantitatively their implications for financial-market asset prices and portfolio choice. I also explore the potential roots of puzzles in international finance. Chapter 1 shows that, by introducing jointly endogenous no-default type of borrowing constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic general-equilibrium economy, many empirical features of stock return volatility can be reproduced. While most of the research on stock return volatility is empirical, this paper provides a theoretical framework that is able to reproduce simultaneously the cross section and time series stylized facts concerning stock returns and their volatility. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature related to stock return volatility, I don't impose persistence or regimes in any of the exogenous state variables or in preferences. Volatility clustering, asymmetry in the stock return-volatility relationship, and pricing of multi-factor volatility components in the cross section all arise endogenously as a consequence of the feedback between the binding of no-default constraints and heterogeneous beliefs. Chapters 2 and 3 explore the implications of differences of opinion across investors in different countries for international asset pricing anomalies. Chapter 2 demonstrates that several international finance "puzzles" can be reproduced by a single risk factor which captures heterogeneous beliefs across international investors. These puzzles include: (i) home equity preference; (ii) the dependence of firm returns on local and foreign factors; (iii) the co-movement of returns and international capital flows; and (iv) abnormal returns around foreign firm cross-listing events in the local market. These are reproduced in a setup with symmetric information and in a perfectly integrated world with multiple countries and independent processes producing the same good. Chapter 3 shows that by extending this framework to multiple goods and correlated production processes; the "forward premium puzzle" arises naturally as a compensation for the heterogeneous expectations about the depreciation of the exchange rate held by international investors. Chapters 2 and 3 propose differences of opinion across international investors as the potential resolution of several international finance `puzzles'. In a globalized world where both capital and information flow freely across countries, this explanation seems more appealing than existing asymmetric information or segmented markets theories aiming to explain international finance puzzles.

Local optima networks of hard combinatorial landscapes

Combinatorial optimization involves finding an optimal solution in a finite set of options; many everyday life problems are of this kind. However, the number of options grows exponentially with the size of the problem, such that an exhaustive search for the best solution is practically infeasible beyond a certain problem size. When efficient algorithms are not available, a practical approach to obtain an approximate solution to the problem at hand, is to start with an educated guess and gradually refine it until we have a good-enough solution. Roughly speaking, this is how local search heuristics work. These stochastic algorithms navigate the problem search space by iteratively turning the current solution into new candidate solutions, guiding the search towards better solutions. The search performance, therefore, depends on structural aspects of the search space, which in turn depend on the move operator being used to modify solutions. A common way to characterize the search space of a problem is through the study of its fitness landscape, a mathematical object comprising the space of all possible solutions, their value with respect to the optimization objective, and a relationship of neighborhood defined by the move operator. The landscape metaphor is used to explain the search dynamics as a sort of potential function. The concept is indeed similar to that of potential energy surfaces in physical chemistry. Borrowing ideas from that field, we propose to extend to combinatorial landscapes the notion of the inherent network formed by energy minima in energy landscapes. In our case, energy minima are the local optima of the combinatorial problem, and we explore several definitions for the network edges. At first, we perform an exhaustive sampling of local optima basins of attraction, and define weighted transitions between basins by accounting for all the possible ways of crossing the basins frontier via one random move. Then, we reduce the computational burden by only counting the chances of escaping a given basin via random kick moves that start at the local optimum. Finally, we approximate network edges from the search trajectory of simple search heuristics, mining the frequency and inter-arrival time with which the heuristic visits local optima. Through these methodologies, we build a weighted directed graph that provides a synthetic view of the whole landscape, and that we can characterize using the tools of complex networks science. We argue that the network characterization can advance our understanding of the structural and dynamical properties of hard combinatorial landscapes. We apply our approach to prototypical problems such as the Quadratic Assignment Problem, the NK model of rugged landscapes, and the Permutation Flow-shop Scheduling Problem. We show that some network metrics can differentiate problem classes, correlate with problem non-linearity, and predict problem hardness as measured from the performances of trajectory-based local search heuristics.

Federal Dynamics in Times of Economic and Financial Crisis

The global economic and financial crisis is a challenge for all governments, but particularly for federal states because divided and/or shared territorial powers make federations susceptible to coordination problems in fiscal policy making. This article explores the effects of the ongoing crisis on federal relations. Three kinds of problems that may become the cause of federal tensions and conflicts are evoked: opportunism of subgovernments, centralisation and erosion of solidarity among members of the federation. Our analysis of fiscal policies and federal conflicts of 11 federations between 2007 and the present reveals three kinds of coordination problems: shirking in the use of federal government grants, rent-seeking in equalisation payments, and over-borrowing and over-spending. Our results show that shirking remained limited to few cases and occurred only in the first part of the crisis. However, rent-seeking and over-borrowing and over-spending led to a reduction of solidarity among subgovernments and to increased regulation of the fiscal discretion of the members of the federation. Subsequently, tensions in federal relations increased - although only in one case did this challenged the federal order.