Machine learning analysis and modeling of interest rate curves

The present research deals with the review of the analysis and modeling of Swiss franc interest rate curves (IRC) by using unsupervised (SOM, Gaussian Mixtures) and supervised machine (MLP) learning algorithms. IRC are considered as objects embedded into different feature spaces: maturities; maturity-date, parameters of Nelson-Siegel model (NSM). Analysis of NSM parameters and their temporal and clustering structures helps to understand the relevance of model and its potential use for the forecasting. Mapping of IRC in a maturity-date feature space is presented and analyzed for the visualization and forecasting purposes.

Interest rates mapping

The present study deals with the analysis and mapping of Swiss franc interest rates. Interest rates depend on time and maturity, defining term structure of the interest rate curves (IRC). In the present study IRC are considered in a two-dimensional feature space - time and maturity. Exploratory data analysis includes a variety of tools widely used in econophysics and geostatistics. Geostatistical models and machine learning algorithms (multilayer perceptron and Support Vector Machines) were applied to produce interest rate maps. IR maps can be used for the visualisation and pattern perception purposes, to develop and to explore economical hypotheses, to produce dynamic asset-liability simulations and for financial risk assessments. The feasibility of an application of interest rates mapping approach for the IRC forecasting is considered as well. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal ?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze a semi-open economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector has not. This enables the central bank to choose an interest rate different from the international rate. We examine the optimal policy of the central bank by modelling it as a Ramsey planner who can choose the level of domestic public debt and of international reserves. The central bank can improve savings opportunities of credit-constrained consumers modelled as in Woodford (1990). We find that in a steady state it is optimal for the central bank to replicate the open economy, i.e., to issue debt financed by the accumulation of reserves so that the domestic interest rate equals the foreign rate. When the economy is in transition, however, a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility and the optimal interest rate differs from the international rate. We argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate. We also find that capital controls can still help reach the first best when the planner has more fiscal instruments.

Le prêt à intérêt dans l'Antiquité préchrétienne : Jérusalem, Athènes, Rome : étude juridique, philosophique et historiographique

Le prêt à intérêt était pratiqué par tous les peuples de l'Antiquité préchrétienne, à l'exception du peuple d'Israël. L'auteur examine d'abord l'interdiction du prêt à intérêt dans l'Ancien Testament. Il expose ensuite la pratique du prêt à intérêt en Grèce, avant de détailler les critiques d'Aristote. Enfin, l'auteur retrace l'évolution du prêt (mutuum) et de la réglementation de l'intérêt à Rome, des origines à Constantin. Il met l'accent sur trois grandes controverses parmi les romanistes modernes (XVIe - XXIe s.) : sur le nexum, sur la centesima et, surtout, sur le mystérieux fenus unciarium, le taux d'intérêt fixé par les Douze Tables, pour lequel l'éventail des interprétations va de 1 à 100 % par an ! L'auteur recense les opinions de plus de 400 juristes et historiens, discute les plus importantes et propose sa conclusion. The loan at interest was used by all the peoples of pre-Christian Antiquity, excepting the people of Israel. The author first focuses on the prohibition of lending at interest in the Old Testament. He then explores the use of loans at interest in Greece before examining Aristotle's criticism. Eventually, the author follows the evolution of loan (mutuum) and interest regulation in Rome, from the origins to Constantine. Three great controversies among modern Roman law scholars (16th - 21th) are considered: nexum, centesima and above all, the mysterious fenus unciarium, the interest rate defined by the Twelve Tables, for which the range of interpretations varies between 1 and 100% per year! The author gives an inventory of more than 400 opinions expressed by jurists and historians, discusses the most important ones and suggests a solution.

Safety Traps

Fear of risk provides a rationale for protracted economic downturns. We develop a real business cycle model where investors with decreasing relative risk aversion choose between a risky and a safe technology that exhibit decreasing returns. Because of a feedback effect from the interest rate to risk aversion, two equilibria can emerge: a standard equilibrium and a "safe" one in which investors invest in safer assets. We refer to the dynamics of this second equilibrium as a safety trap because it is self-reinforcing as investors accumulate more wealth and show it to be consistent with Japan's lost decade.

What Transaction Costs are Acceptable in Life Insurance Products from the Policyholders' Viewpoint?

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze what transaction costs are acceptable for customers in different investments. In this study, two life insurance contracts, a mutual fund and a risk-free investment, as alternative investment forms are considered. The first two products under scrutiny are a life insurance investment with a point-to-point capital guarantee and a participating contract with an annual interest rate guarantee and participation in the insurer's surplus. The policyholder assesses the various investment opportunities using different utility measures. For selected types of risk profiles, the utility position and the investor's preference for the various investments are assessed. Based on this analysis, the authors study which cost levels can make all of the products equally rewarding for the investor. Design/methodology/approach - The paper notes the risk-neutral valuation calibration using empirical data utility and performance measurement dynamics underlying: geometric Brownian motion numerical examples via Monte Carlo simulation. Findings - In the first step, the financial performance of the various saving opportunities under different assumptions of the investor's utility measurement is studied. In the second step, the authors calculate the level of transaction costs that are allowed in the various products to make all of the investment opportunities equally rewarding from the investor's point of view. A comparison of these results with transaction costs that are common in the market shows that insurance companies must be careful with respect to the level of transaction costs that they pass on to their customers to provide attractive payoff distributions. Originality/value - To the best of the authors' knowledge, their research question - i.e. which transaction costs for life insurance products would be acceptable from the customer's point of view - has not been studied in the above described context so far.

Quantifying network properties in multi-electrode recordings: spatiotemporal characterization and inter-trial variation of evoked gamma oscillations in mouse somatosensory cortex in vitro.

Linking the structural connectivity of brain circuits to their cooperative dynamics and emergent functions is a central aim of neuroscience research. Graph theory has recently been applied to study the structure-function relationship of networks, where dynamical similarity of different nodes has been turned into a "static" functional connection. However, the capability of the brain to adapt, learn and process external stimuli requires a constant dynamical functional rewiring between circuitries and cell assemblies. Hence, we must capture the changes of network functional connectivity over time. Multi-electrode array data present a unique challenge within this framework. We study the dynamics of gamma oscillations in acute slices of the somatosensory cortex from juvenile mice recorded by planar multi-electrode arrays. Bursts of gamma oscillatory activity lasting a few hundred milliseconds could be initiated only by brief trains of electrical stimulations applied at the deepest cortical layers and simultaneously delivered at multiple locations. Local field potentials were used to study the spatio-temporal properties and the instantaneous synchronization profile of the gamma oscillatory activity, combined with current source density (CSD) analysis. Pair-wise differences in the oscillation phase were used to determine the presence of instantaneous synchronization between the different sites of the circuitry during the oscillatory period. Despite variation in the duration of the oscillatory response over successive trials, they showed a constant average power, suggesting that the rate of expenditure of energy during the gamma bursts is consistent across repeated stimulations. Within each gamma burst, the functional connectivity map reflected the columnar organization of the neocortex. Over successive trials, an apparently random rearrangement of the functional connectivity was observed, with a more stable columnar than horizontal organization. This work reveals new features of evoked gamma oscillations in developing cortex.

Evolutionary implications of a high selfing rate in the freshwater snail Lymnaea truncatula.

Self-compatible hermaphroditic organisms that mix self-fertilization and outcrossing are of great interest for investigating the evolution of mating systems. We investigate the evolution of selfing in Lymnaea truncatula, a self-compatible hermaphroditic freshwater snail. We first analyze the consequences of selfing in terms of genetic variability within and among populations and then investigate how these consequences along with the species ecology (harshness of the habitat and parasitism) might govern the evolution of selfing. Snails from 13 localities (classified as temporary or permanent depending on their water availability) were sampled in western Switzerland and genotyped for seven microsatellite loci. F(IS) (estimated on adults) and progeny array analyses (on hatchlings) provided similar selfing rate estimates of 80%. Populations presented a low polymorphism and were highly differentiated (F(ST) = 0.58). Although the reproductive assurance hypothesis would predict higher selfing rate in temporary populations, no difference in selfing level was observed between temporary and permanent populations. However, allelic richness and gene diversity declined in temporary habitats, presumably reflecting drift. Infection levels varied but were not simply related to either estimated population selfing rate or to differences in heterozygosity. These findings and the similar selfing rates estimated for hatchlings and adults suggest that within-population inbreeding depression is low in L. truncatula.

Rate and predictors of service disengagement in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence and predictors of service disengagement in a treated epidemiological cohort of first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. METHODS: The Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) in Australia admitted 786 FEP patients from January 1998 to December 2000. Treatment at EPPIC is scheduled for 18 months. Data were collected from patients' files using a standardized questionnaire. Seven hundred four files were available; 44 were excluded, because of a non-psychotic diagnosis at endpoint (n=43) or missing data on service disengagement (n=1). Rate of service disengagement was the outcome of interest, as well as pre-treatment, baseline, and treatment predictors of service disengagement, which were examined via Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 154 patients (23.3%) disengaged from service. A past forensic history (Hazard ratio [HR]=1.69; 95%CI 1.17-2.45), lower severity of illness at baseline (HR=0.59; 95%CI 0.48-0.72), living without family at discharge (HR=1.75; 95%CI 1.22-2.50) and persistence of substance use disorder during treatment (HR=2.30; 95%CI 1.45-3.66) were significant predictors of disengagement from service. CONCLUSIONS: While engagement strategies are a core element in the treatment of first-episode psychosis, particular attention should be paid to these factors associated with disengagement. Involvement of the family in the treatment process, and focusing on reduction of substance use, need to be pursued in early intervention services.

Estimation de la fonction rénale par l'equation MDRD: intérêt et limites pour l'adaptation des doses de médicaments [Renal function estimation by MDRD equation: interest and limitations for drug dosing].

The MDRD (Modification of diet in renal disease) equation enables glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation from serum creatinine only. Thus, the laboratory can report an estimated GFR (eGFR) with each serum creatinine assessment, increasing therefore the recognition of renal failure. Predictive performance of MDRD equation is better for GFR < 60 ml/min/1,73 m2. A normal or near-normal renal function is often underestimated by this equation. Overall, MDRD provides more reliable estimations of renal function than the Cockcroft-Gault (C-G) formula, but both lack precision. MDRD is not superior to C-G for drug dosing. Being adjusted to 1,73 m2, MDRD eGFR has to be back adjusted to the patient's body surface area for drug dosing. Besides, C-G has the advantage of a greater simplicity and a longer use.

Développement de l'irrigation et évolution des régimes fonciers dans la région de Gaya (Niger)

Since the mid 90's, international actors as well as governmental actors have raised their interest into the development of irrigation's potential that is still largely unexploited in Niger. It seems all the more interesting as it could answer the needs of a fast growing population (3.3% per year). However, if everyone agrees on the need to development this system, the current implementation triggers questions on the process itself and its side effects. National and international policies on this matter were build upon an historical process through colonial, post-colonial and then the late 1980's neoliberal structures, leading to a business model that reveals a discrepancy between the state logic and the farming one. This business model asks for a high capacity of mobilization of resources unachievable for many, especially when they want to address small-scale irrigation (area rate among farmers. In terms of land tenure analysis, the project excluded all farmers cultivating land on a loan or lease agreement and all those for whom it was difficult to obtain a title of ownership. However, this new interest for small-scale irrigation exerted by the project and the new players triggered the commoditization of land. As a matter of fact, the demographic constraints and the fragmentation of the familial land ownership led to a more individual production system, where the customary relation to land tenure is weakened or even overcome. This makes it easier for the new players who need to settle their small-scale irrigation projects to purchase land. When there are only few areas available for selling, the. purchasing processes are undermining the farmers with insecure rights. If the withdrawal of lands is supposed to be smoothened by social measures, such as replacement of the land and primary offers to purchase the land, those measures are often not attractive. The proposed land of replacement is frequently too far away located or lesser fertile to be of any use and the economic capacity of purchasing is too little, eventually leading the farmers to leave their terroirs. Those in charge of the application of the Rural Code have succeeding in answering the need of written secured land tenure, but have difficulty to meet the challenge of doing the same to secure rights for farmers with loans or lease agreements. The small-scale irrigation could bring an answer for their financial needs to buy the land, but it would require mobilizing resources to invest or an easier access to supportive projects. The economic benefice from small-scale irrigation is now widely recognized, but we have to take also into account the risks of marginalization of part of the small farmers. For a more widely spread exploitation of small-scale irrigation, the mechanism of land regulation as well as the process to access the financial and technical support of projects must be revised in order to reach more small farmers. Développement de l'irrigation et évolution des régimes fonciers dans la région de Gaya (Niger) - Le secteur de l'irrigation a bénéficié d'un regain d'intérêt de la part des acteurs internationaux du développement et de l'Etat nigérien depuis le milieu des années 1990. Cet intérêt est à la hauteur du potentiel en terres irrigables (300Ό00 ha environ) du pays, largement sous-exploité alors que les besoins alimentaires sont grandissants, la population augmentant de 3.3% par an. Si le diagnostic est correct, les stratégies mises en oeuvre en matière d'irrigation posent question. Les interventions, aussi bien publiques qu'internationales, reposent sur un modèle entrepreneurial qui parachève une longue trajectoire historique. Initiée par l'Etat colonial, poursuivie par l'Etat post-colonial et transformé par les politiques néolibérales des années 1980, elle se caractérise par un hiatus constant entre logiques étatiques et logiques paysannes. En matière de petite irrigation privée (surfaces < 1-2 ha, technologies à faible coût), ce modèle présuppose une mobilisation de ressources (économiques, sociales, éducationnelles et foncières) inégalement réparties au sein de la population rurale. Cette recherche s'est intéressée à expliciter les liens qui existent entre le développement de la petite irrigation privée et l'évolution des régimes fonciers. Les trois questionnements qui ont guidé l'analyse empirique portent sur la sécurisation foncière, les dynamiques de marchandisation de la terre et l'accès à la terre pour tous les producteurs. Le Département de Gaya dispose d'un potentiel très important en ressources hydriques, facilement mobilisables. Les productions maraîchères et fruitières ont connu un essor très important à partir des années 1980. Initialement pratiquées par les cultivateurs, elles ont progressivement attiré l'attention d'acteurs externes au monde rural (fonctionnaires, commerçants), du fait de leur haute valeur ajoutée. La Banque mondiale a fortement soutenu cette dynamique à travers un projet à vocation entrepreneuriale, qui s'est pourtant révélé hors de portée de la majorité des petits paysans et a principalement bénéficié à ces acteurs extra-ruraux ainsi qu'à certaines élites locales. Au plan foncier, il a en particulier exclu tous les emprunteurs des terres, qui ne sont pas à même de produire des documents écrits confirmant leurs droits sur la terre. Ce projet, et plus largement l'intérêt que les acteurs extra-ruraux portent à la petite irrigation, ont contribué à alimenter la marchandisation de la terre. Sans ancrage familial dans les terroirs villageois, ces acteurs sont obligés d'acheter la terre pour faire de l'irrigation. Leur demande vient s'inscrire dans un contexte général où la pression démographique et le morcellement successif des capitaux fonciers familiaux ont progressivement individualisé la relation entre les producteurs et la terre, au point d'affaiblir ou de faire tomber les interdits coutumiers en matière de vente. Dans les espaces disposant de faibles réserves foncières, les ventes se font principalement au détriment des acteurs qui, comme les emprunteurs, disposent de droits fonciers peu stables et sécurisés. Si le retrait de la terre est socialement encadré (terre en remplacement, possibilité d'acheter la terre qui va être vendue), il pose également des contraintes agronomiques (sols de moindre qualité) et économiques (nécessité de disposer des liquidités pour racheter la terre) qui peuvent, en dernier ratio, obligent les acteurs concernés à quitter les terroirs. Les instances du Code rural, qui ont su apporter des réponses satisfaisantes à la demande de sécurisation foncière par l'établissement de documents écrits, rencontrent aujourd'hui de grandes difficultés à en faire de même pour les droits de prêt. Dans ce contexte, l'irrigation peut apporter les sommes nécessaires à l'achat des terres. Encore faut-il que ces emprunteurs disposent des ressources financières propres pour la développer ou qu'ils puissent y avoir accès grâce à l'appui d'un projet. Si l'intérêt économique de la petite irrigation privée est indiscutable, les risques de marginalisation d'une partie de producteurs ruraux qu'elle peut produire sont bien réels. Pour en faire une activité accessible au plus grand nombre, il faut revoir les mécanismes de régulation foncière, ainsi que les montages techniques et financiers qui supportent le développement de ce secteur d'activité très prometteur.

Right coronary artery flow velocity and volume assessment with spiral K-space sampled breathhold velocity-encoded MRI at 3 tesla: accuracy and reproducibility.

PURPOSE: To evaluate accuracy and reproducibility of flow velocity and volume measurements in a phantom and in human coronary arteries using breathhold velocity-encoded (VE) MRI with spiral k-space sampling at 3 Tesla. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Flow velocity assessment was performed using VE MRI with spiral k-space sampling. Accuracy of VE MRI was tested in vitro at five constant flow rates. Reproducibility was investigated in 19 healthy subjects (mean age 25.4 +/- 1.2 years, 11 men) by repeated acquisition in the right coronary artery (RCA). RESULTS: MRI-measured flow rates correlated strongly with volumetric collection (Pearson correlation r = 0.99; P < 0.01). Due to limited sample resolution, VE MRI overestimated the flow rate by 47% on average when nonconstricted region-of-interest segmentation was used. Using constricted region-of-interest segmentation with lumen size equal to ground-truth luminal size, less than 13% error in flow rate was found. In vivo RCA flow velocity assessment was successful in 82% of the applied studies. High interscan, intra- and inter-observer agreement was found for almost all indices describing coronary flow velocity. Reproducibility for repeated acquisitions varied by less than 16% for peak velocity values and by less than 24% for flow volumes. CONCLUSION: 3T breathhold VE MRI with spiral k-space sampling enables accurate and reproducible assessment of RCA flow velocity.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Molecular basis of coagulation factor V deficiency caused by the R1698W inter-domain mutation.

Coagulation factor V (FV) deficiency is characterised by variable bleeding phenotypes and heterogeneous mutations. To add new insights into the FV genotype-phenotype relationship, we characterised the R1698W change in the A3 domain, at the poorly investigated interface with the A2 domain. The FV R1698W mutation was responsible for a markedly reduced expression level (10% of FV-WT) and specific activity in thrombin generation (0.39). Interestingly, the FVa1698W showed rapid activity decay upon activation due to increased dissociation rate between the heavy and light chains. The importance of the size and charge of the residue at position 1698 was investigated by three additional recombinant mutants, FVR1698A, FVR1698Q, and FVR1698E. FVR1698A and FVR1698Q expression (30 and 45% of FV-WT), specific activity (both 0.57) and stability were all reduced. Noticeably, FVR1698E showed normal activity and stability despite poor expression (10% of FV-WT). These data indicate the essential role of R1698 for normal biosynthetic process and support local flexibility for positively or negatively charged residues to produce stable and functional A3-A2 domain interactions. Their experimental alteration produces a gradient of FV defects, which help to interpret the wide spectrum of phenotypes in FV-deficient patients.