Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.

Phenotypic heterogeneity of antigen-specific CD4 cells under different conditions of antigen persistence and antigen load

RESUME Nous n'avons pas de connaissance précise des facteurs à l'origine de l'hétérogénéité phénotypique des cellules T CD4 mémoires. Une troisième population phénotypique des cellules T CD4 mémoires, caractérisée par les marqueurs CD45RA+CCR7- a été identifiée dans cette étude. Cette population présente un état de différentiation avancée, comme en témoigne son histoire de réplication, ainsi que sa capacité de prolifération homéostatique. Les réponses des cellules T CD4 mémoires à différentes conditions de persistance et charge antigénique ont trois patterns phénotypiques différents, caractérisés par les marqueurs CD45RA et CCR7. La réponse CD4 mono -phénotypique CD45RA-CCR7+ ou CD45RA- CCR7- est associée à des conditions d'élimination de l'antigène (telle la réponse CD4 tétanos spécifique) ou à des conditions de persistance antigénique et de virémie élevée (telle la réponse HIV chronique ou la primo-infection CMV) respectivement. D'autre part, les réponses T CD4 multi -phénotypiques CD45RA-CCR7+ sont associées à des conditions d'exposition antigénique prolongée et de faible virémie (telles les infections CMV, EBV et HSV ou les infections HIV chez les long term non progressons). La réponse mono -phénotypique CD45RA- CCR7+ est propre aux cellules T CD4 secrétant de IL2, définies également comme centrales mémoires, la réponse CD45RA- CCR7- aux cellules T CD4 secrétant de l'IFNγ et finalement la réponse mufti-phénotypique aux cellules T CD4 secrétant à la fois de l'IL2 et de l' IFNγ. En conclusion, ces résultats témoignent d'une régulation de l'hétérogénéité phénotypique par l'exposition et la charge antigénique. ABSTRACT The factors responsible for the phenotypic heterogeneity of memory CD4 T cells are unclear. In the present study, we have identified a third population of memory CD4 T cells characterized as CD45RA+CCRT that, based on its replication history and the homeostatic proliferative capacity, was at an advanced stage of differentiation. Three different phenotypic patterns of memory CD4 T cell responses were delineated under different conditions of antigen (Ag) persistence and load using CD45RA and CCR7 as markers of memory T cells. Mono-phenotypic CD45RA'CCR7+ or CD45RA'CCR7' CD4 T cell responses were associated with conditions of Ag clearance (tetanus toxoid-specific CD4 T cell response) or Ag persistence and high load (chronic HIV-1 and primary CMV infections), respectively. Multi-phenotypic CD45RA CCR7+, CD45RA'CCRT and CD45RA+CCRT CD4 T cell responses were associated with protracted Ag exposure and low load (chronic CMV, EBV and HSV infections and HIV-1 infection in long-term nonprogressors). The mono-phenotypic CD45RA'CCR7+ response was typical of central memory (TCM) IL-2-secreting CD4 T cells, the mono-phenotypic CD45RA CCRT response of effector memory (TEM) IFN-γ -secreting CD4 T cells and the multi-phenotypic response of both IL-2- and IFN-γ -secreting cells. The present results indicate that the heterogeneity of different Ag-specific CD4 T cell responses is regulated by Ag exposure and Ag load.

Two alternate mechanisms contribute to the persistence of interdependent lineages in Pogonomyrmex harvester ants.

Some populations of Pogonomyrmex harvester ants comprise pairs of highly differentiated lineages with queens mating at random with several males of their own and of the alternate lineage. These queens produce two types of diploid offspring, those fertilized by males of the queens' lineage which develop into new queens and those fertilized by males of the other lineage which mostly develop into functionally sterile workers. This unusual mode of genetic caste determination has been found in 26 populations and a total of four lineage pairs (F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2), H(1)-H(2) and J(1)-J(2)) have been described in these populations. Despite the fact that a few interlineage queens are produced, previous studies revealed that there is a complete lack of genetic introgression between lineages. Here we quantify the proportion of interlineage queens produced in each of the four lineage pairs and determine the fate of these queens. In the F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2) and H(1)-H(2) lineage pairs, interlineage queens were produced by a minority of colonies. These colonies exclusively produced interlineage queens and workers, suggesting that interlineage eggs can develop into queens in these three pairs of lineages in the absence of competition with pure-lineage brood. An analysis of three key stages of the colony life cycle revealed that colonies headed by interlineage queens failed to grow sufficiently to produce reproductive individuals. In laboratory comparisons, interlineage queens produced fewer viable eggs, with the effect that they raised fewer workers and lost more weight per worker produced than pure-lineage queens. In the J(1)-J(2) lineage pair, we did not find a single interlineage queen, raising the possibility that interlineage eggs have completely lost the ability to develop into queens in this lineage pair. Hence, two distinct mechanisms seem to account for the complete lack of between-lineage gene flow in the F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2), H(1)-H(2) and J(1)-J(2) lineage pairs.

Persistence of EBV Antigen-Specific CD8 T Cell Clonotypes during Homeostatic Immune Reconstitution in Cancer Patients.

Persistent viruses are kept in check by specific lymphocytes. The clonal T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire against Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), once established following primary infection, exhibits a robust stability over time. However, the determinants contributing to this long-term persistence are still poorly characterized. Taking advantage of an in vivo clinical setting where lymphocyte homeostasis was transiently perturbed, we studied EBV antigen-specific CD8 T cells before and after non-myeloablative lympho-depleting chemotherapy of melanoma patients. Despite more advanced T cell differentiation, patients T cells showed clonal composition comparable to healthy individuals, sharing a preference for TRBV20 and TRBV29 gene segment usage and several co-dominant public TCR clonotypes. Moreover, our data revealed the presence of relatively few dominant EBV antigen-specific T cell clonotypes, which mostly persisted following transient lympho-depletion (TLD) and lymphocyte recovery, likely related to absence of EBV reactivation and de novo T cell priming in these patients. Interestingly, persisting clonotypes frequently co-expressed memory/homing-associated genes (CD27, IL7R, EOMES, CD62L/SELL and CCR5) supporting the notion that they are particularly important for long-lasting CD8 T cell responses. Nevertheless, the clonal composition of EBV-specific CD8 T cells was preserved over time with the presence of the same dominant clonotypes after non-myeloablative chemotherapy. The observed clonotype persistence demonstrates high robustness of CD8 T cell homeostasis and reconstitution.

'Next generation' biogeography: towards understanding the drivers of species diversification and persistence

The drivers of species diversification and persistence are of great interest to current biogeography, especially in those global biodiversity hotspots' harbouring most of Earth's animal and plant life. Classical multispecies biogeographical work has yielded fascinating insights into broad-scale patterns of diversification, and DNA-based intraspecific phylogeographical studies have started to complement this picture at much finer temporal and spatial scales. The advent of novel next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies provides the opportunity to greatly scale up the numbers of individuals, populations and species sampled, potentially merging intraspecific and interspecific approaches to biogeographical inference. Here, we outline these prospects and issues by using the example of an undisputed hotspot, the Cape of southern Africa. We outline the current state of knowledge on the biogeography of species diversification within the Cape, review the literature for phylogeographical evidence of its likely drivers and mechanisms, and suggest possible ways forward based on NGS approaches. We demonstrate the potential of these methods and current bioinformatic issues with the help of restriction-site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing data for three highly divergent species of the Restionaceae, an important plant radiation in the Cape. A thorough understanding of the mechanisms that facilitate species diversification and persistence in spatially structured, species-rich environments will require the adoption of novel genomic and bioinformatic tools in biogeographical studies.

Opposite effect of counterions on the persistence length of nicked and non-nicked DNA.

Using cryo-electron microscopy we reconstructed the three-dimensional trajectories adopted in cryovitrified solutions by double-stranded DNA molecules in which the backbone of one strand lacked a phosphate at regular intervals of 20 nucleotides. The shape of such nicked DNA molecules was compared with that of DNA molecules with exactly the same sequence but without any single-stranded scissions. Upon changing the salt concentration we observed opposite effects of charge neutralization on nicked and non-nicked DNA. In low salt solutions (10 mM Tris-HCl, 10 mM NaCl) the applied dense nicking caused ca 3.5-fold reduction of the DNA persistence length as compared with non-nicked DNA. Upon increasing the salt concentration (to 150 mM NaCl and 10 mM MgCl2) the persistence length of non-nicked DNA appreciably decreased while that of nicked DNA molecules increased by a factor of 2.

Persistence of a Gastrocutaneous Fistula after gastrostomy removal in children: Incidence and predictive factors

Background/Purpose: The aims of this study were to determine the incidence of persistent gastrocutaneous fistulas (GCF) after gastrostomy removal and to identify associated risk factors. Methods: This retrospective study included 75 children from the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland who had a gastrostomy performed between 1988 and 2010. The records of the children were reviewed for sex, age at the time of gastrostomy removal, underlying disease, type of gastrostomy placement and length of use, and then analyzed in order to find a correlation between the GCF and these parameters. Results: The gastrostomy orifice did not close spontaneously within the first month in 33 of the patients (44%), and 15 subsequently underwent surgical closure. The mean duration of gastrostomy use was significantly longer in children who developed a persistent GCF (30 vs. 19 months, P = 0.03). The other parameters studied did not show any significant association with the persistence of a GCF. Conclusions: The only predictive factor determining the persistence of a GCF was found to be the timespan between the placement and removal of the gastrostomy appliance. Elective surgical closure of the gastrostomy orifice should be considered after 1 month of persistent GCF.

Vertebrate conserved non coding DNA regions have a high persistence length and a short persistence time.

BACKGROUND: The comparison of complete genomes has revealed surprisingly large numbers of conserved non-protein-coding (CNC) DNA regions. However, the biological function of CNC remains elusive. CNC differ in two aspects from conserved protein-coding regions. They are not conserved across phylum boundaries, and they do not contain readily detectable sub-domains. Here we characterize the persistence length and time of CNC and conserved protein-coding regions in the vertebrate and insect lineages. RESULTS: The persistence length is the length of a genome region over which a certain level of sequence identity is consistently maintained. The persistence time is the evolutionary period during which a conserved region evolves under the same selective constraints.Our main findings are: (i) Insect genomes contain 1.60 times less conserved information than vertebrates; (ii) Vertebrate CNC have a higher persistence length than conserved coding regions or insect CNC; (iii) CNC have shorter persistence times as compared to conserved coding regions in both lineages. CONCLUSION: Higher persistence length of vertebrate CNC indicates that the conserved information in vertebrates and insects is organized in functional elements of different lengths. These findings might be related to the higher morphological complexity of vertebrates and give clues about the structure of active CNC elements.Shorter persistence time might explain the previously puzzling observations of highly conserved CNC within each phylum, and of a lack of conservation between phyla. It suggests that CNC divergence might be a key factor in vertebrate evolution. Further evolutionary studies will help to relate individual CNC to specific developmental processes.

Persistence of retinal function after intravitreal melphalan injection for retinoblastoma.

BACKGROUND: The risk/benefit profile of intravitreal melphalan injection for treatment of active vitreous seeds in retinoblastoma remains uncertain. We report clinical and electroretinography results after 6 months of one patient who has shown a favorable initial clinical response to intravitreal melphalan injections for treatment of refractory vitreous seeds. METHODS: Clinical case report. PATIENT: The patient presented at age 17 months with bilateral retinoblastoma [OD: International Classification (ICRB) group E, Reese-Ellsworth (R-E) class Vb; OS: ICRB D, R-E Vb] with no known prior family history. The right eye was enucleated primarily. The patient received systemic chemotherapy and extensive local treatment to the left eye. Ten months later, she presented with recurrent disease, including fine, diffuse vitreous seeds. Tumor control was established with intra-arterial chemotherapy and local treatment. Subsequent recurrence was treated with further intra-arterial chemotherapy, local treatment, and plaque radiotherapy with iodine-125. Persistent free-floating spherical vitreous seeds were treated with 4 cycles of intravitreal melphalan injection via the pars plana, with doses of 30, 30, 30, and 20 μg. RESULTS: After 6 months of follow-up, the left eye remained free of active tumor. Visual acuity was 20/40. Photopic ERGs amplitudes were unchanged compared with those recorded prior to the intravitreal injection treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Intravitreal melphalan injection for refractory spherical vitreous seeds of retinoblastoma with favorable tumor response is compatible with good central visual acuity and preservation of retinal function as indicated by photopic ERG recordings.

Determination of DNA persistence length by cryo-electron microscopy. Separation of the static and dynamic contributions to the apparent persistence length of DNA.

Axial deflection of DNA molecules in solution results from thermal motion and intrinsic curvature related to the DNA sequence. In order to measure directly the contribution of thermal motion we constructed intrinsically straight DNA molecules and measured their persistence length by cryo-electron microscopy. The persistence length of such intrinsically straight DNA molecules suspended in thin layers of cryo-vitrified solutions is about 80 nm. In order to test our experimental approach, we measured the apparent persistence length of DNA molecules with natural "random" sequences. The result of about 45 nm is consistent with the generally accepted value of the apparent persistence length of natural DNA sequences. By comparing the apparent persistence length to intrinsically straight DNA with that of natural DNA, it is possible to determine both the dynamic and the static contributions to the apparent persistence length.

Reactive rise in blood pressure upon cuff inflation : cuff inflation at the arm causes a greater rise in pressure than at the wrist in hypertensive patients

Résumé en français: Il est admis que l'inflation d'une manchette à pression au niveau du bras engendre une augmentation réactionnelle de la tension artérielle qui peut être le résultat d'une gêne lors de l'inflation et peut diminuer la précision de la mesure. Dans cette étude, nous comparons séquentiellement l'augmentation de la tension artérielle lorsque la manchette à pression est positionnée au niveau du bras et au niveau du poignet. Nous avons étudié un collectif de 34 participants normotendus et 34 patients hypertendus. Chacun d'eux était équipé de deux manchettes à pression, l'une au niveau du bras et l'autre au niveau du poignet. Nous avons randomisé l'ordre d'inflation des manchettes ainsi que la pression d'inflation maximale (180mmHg versus 240mmHg). Trois mesures étaient effectuées pour chaque pression d'inflation maximale, ceci au bras comme poignet, et leur séquence était également randomisée. En parallèle, un enregistrement continu de la tension artérielle avait lieu au niveau du majeur de la main opposée à l'aide d'un photoplethysmographe. Cette valeur était considérée comme la valeur de tension artérielle au repos. Pour les participants normotendus, aucune différence statistiquement significative n'a pu être mise en évidence en lien avec la position de la manchette à pression, ceci indépendamment de la pression d'inflation maximale. Variation de la pression systolique à 180 mmHg: 4.3+/-3.0 mmHg au bras et 3.7+/-2.9 mmHg au poignet (p=ns), à 240 mmHg: 5.5+/-3.9 au bras et 4.2+/-2.7 mmHg au poignet (p=0.052). En revanche, concernant les patients hypertendus, une augmentation significative de la tension artérielle a été mise en évidence entre le bras et le poignet. Ceci pour les valeurs de tension artérielle systolique et diastolique et quelle que soit la pression d'inflation maximale utilisée. Augmentation de la pression artérielle systolique 6.513.5 mmHg au bras et 3.812.1mmHg au poignet pour une pression d'inflation maximale de 180 mmHg (p<0.01) et respectivement 6.413.5 mmHg et 4.713.0 mmHg pour 240 mmHg (p=0.01). L'augmentation des valeurs de tension artérielle était indépendante de la valeur tensionnelle de base. Ces résultats montrent que les patients hypertendus réagissent significativement moins à l'inflation d'une manchette ä pression lorsque celle-ci est positionnée au niveau du poignet par rapport au bras, ceci indépendamment des valeurs de tension artérielle de base des patients. Nous pouvons donc suggérer que l'inflation d'une manchette à pression cause moins de désagrément lorsqu'elle est placée au niveau du poignet, notamment chez les patients hypertendus et qu'elle peut être une alternative à la mesure standard au niveau du bras.

Valence lasts longer than arousal : persistence of induced moods as assessed by psychophysiological measures

How long induced moods last is a critical question for mood research but has been only poorly addressed. In particular, physiological parameters have been rarely included to assess the effectiveness of mood induction procedures. We investigated the persistence of four different moods (positive high-arousal, positive low-arousal, negative high-arousal and negative low-arousal) induced by film clips during a computer task. We measured subjective affective state, respiration, skin conductance level (SCL), heart rate, and corrugator activity. People who watched the two negative clips reported more negative valence after the task and showed more facial frowning and lower SCL during the task than the people who watched the two positive clips. No arousal effects persisted throughout the task. The results suggest that induced changes in the valence dimension of moods are maintained throughout an intervening task and are physiologically best reflected by corrugator activity and SCL, whereas induced changes in the arousal dimension dissipate quickly. The implications of these findings for mood research are discussed. [Authors]

Functional heterogeneity of memory CD4 T cell responses in different conditions of antigen exposure and persistence.

Memory CD4 T cell responses are functionally and phenotypically heterogeneous. In the present study, memory CD4 T cell responses were analyzed in different models of Ag-specific immune responses differing on Ag exposure and/or persistence. Ag-specific CD4 T cell responses for tetanus toxoid, HSV, EBV, CMV, and HIV-1 were compared. Three distinct patterns of T cell response were observed. A dominant single IL-2 CD4 T cell response was associated with the model in which the Ag can be cleared. Polyfunctional (single IL-2 plus IL-2/IFN-gamma plus single IFN-gamma) CD4 T cell responses were associated with Ag persistence and low Ag levels. A dominant single IFN-gamma CD4 T cell response was associated with the model of Ag persistence and high Ag levels. The results obtained supported the hypothesis that the different patterns observed were substantially influenced by different conditions of Ag exposure and persistence.