Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.

Total aortic arch stenting--hemodynamical impact of carotid artery perfusion.

The aim of this experimental study is to evaluate the feasibility and the outcome of total endovascular stent implantation in the aortic arch. Indications for this operation-technique would be acute or chronic dissection of the aortic arch (non-A-non-B dissection) or type B dissection with retrograde extension. Four pigs were canulated via the distal abdominal aorta and a retrograde placement of a Djumbodis arch stent (4-9 cm) was controlled by using intravascular ultrasound and intracardiac ultrasound by the inferior cava vein and under radioscopic control. Cerebral perfusion, by using a flow meter placed on one prepared carotid artery, were controlled before, immediate post-procedural (<1 min), and in the early follow-up after aortic arch stent implantation. During the implantation process, especially during balloon inflation and deflation, mean carotid perfusion decreases slightly. A reactive increase of carotid perfusion after stent placements indicates transitory cerebral hypo-perfusion. Non-covered aortic arch stent implantation is technically feasible and could be a potential treatment option in otherwise inoperable arch dissections. The time required for balloon inflation and deflation causes an important risk of cerebral ischemia. The latter can be reduced by transaxillary perfusion.

Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Modified 'dumbbell' technique: a simple and intuitive method to position balloon-expandable stent valves.

Intraoperative cardiac imaging plays a key role during transcatheter aortic valve replacement. In recent years, new techniques and new tools for improved image quality and virtual navigation have been proposed, in order to simplify and standardize stent valve positioning and implantation. But routine performance of the new techniques may require major economic investments or specific knowledge and skills and, for this reason, they may not be accessible to the majority of cardiac centres involved in transcatheter valve replacement projects. Additionally, they still require injections of contrast medium to obtain computed images. Therefore, we have developed and describe here a very simple and intuitive method of positioning balloon-expandable stent valves, which represents the evolution of the 'dumbbell' technique for echocardiography-guided transcatheter valve replacement without angiography. This method, based on the partial inflation of the balloon catheter during positioning, traps the crimped valve in the aortic valve orifice and, consequently, very near to the ideal landing zone. It does not require specific echocardiographic knowledge; it does not require angiographies that increase the risk of postoperative kidney failure in elderly patients, and it can be also performed in centres not equipped with a hybrid operating room.

Non-invasive and non-occlusive blood pressure estimation via a chest sensor.

The clinical demand for a device to monitor Blood Pressure (BP) in ambulatory scenarios with minimal use of inflation cuffs is increasing. Based on the so-called Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) principle, this paper introduces and evaluates a novel concept of BP monitor that can be fully integrated within a chest sensor. After a preliminary calibration, the sensor provides non-occlusive beat-by-beat estimations of Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) by measuring the Pulse Transit Time (PTT) of arterial pressure pulses travelling from the ascending aorta towards the subcutaneous vasculature of the chest. In a cohort of 15 healthy male subjects, a total of 462 simultaneous readings consisting of reference MAP and chest PTT were acquired. Each subject was recorded at three different days: D, D+3 and D+14. Overall, the implemented protocol induced MAP values to range from 80 ± 6 mmHg in baseline, to 107 ± 9 mmHg during isometric handgrip maneuvers. Agreement between reference and chest-sensor MAP values was tested by using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.78) and Bland-Altman analysis (mean error = 0.7 mmHg, standard deviation = 5.1 mmHg). The cumulative percentage of MAP values provided by the chest sensor falling within a range of ±5 mmHg compared to reference MAP readings was of 70%, within ±10 mmHg was of 91%, and within ±15mmHg was of 98%. These results point at the fact that the chest sensor complies with the British Hypertension Society (BHS) requirements of Grade A BP monitors, when applied to MAP readings. Grade A performance was maintained even two weeks after having performed the initial subject-dependent calibration. In conclusion, this paper introduces a sensor and a calibration strategy to perform MAP measurements at the chest. The encouraging performance of the presented technique paves the way towards an ambulatory-compliant, continuous and non-occlusive BP monitoring system.

Esotropie précoce: résultats à long terme d'une série de 82 cas opérés par myopexie rétro-équatoriale et recul simultané des deux muscles droits médiaux avant l'âge de 24 mois [Early-onset esotropia operated before the age of 24 months: long-term results of Cüpper's retropexy combined with simultaneous recession of both medial recti]

BACKGROUND: When and how to operate an early-onset esotropia (onset before 6 months of age) is still controversial. We conducted a retrospective study of such patients operated before the age of 24 months. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 82 patients were operated by one surgeon (GK) and followed by the same team. At 5 years post-operation, evaluation criteria included the residual angle of deviation, visual acuity (Birkhäuser Nr 505, 5 m) and binocularity (Lang stereotest I, Bagolini glasses). RESULTS: At 5 years, the residual angle was excellent (0 degrees to + 5 degrees ) in 67 % good, (>+5 degrees to +10 degrees or 0 to -5 degrees ) in 23 %, and poor (>+10 degrees or <-5 degrees ) in 10 %. During the 5 years of follow-up the rate of reoperation was 9.7 %. Isoacuity was obtained in 62 %, slight amblyopia (2 lines of interocular difference) was present in 32 %, and average amblyopia (> 3 lines of interocular difference) was noted in 6 %. Simultaneous perception was present in 53 %, whereas one eye was suppressed or results were undetermined in 47 %. No patient demonstrated stereoscopy using the Lang's stereotest I. CONCLUSION: The results from our study demonstrate that early surgery of early-onset esotropia has a favourable outcome on both visual acuity and the residual angle of strabismus. Simultaneous perception was achieved in 53 %. These figures are comparable to the results of the ELISSS multicentric study.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia: current status and review of the literature.

Treatment of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) challenges obstetricians, pediatric surgeons, and neonatologists. Persistent pulmonary hypertension (PPHT) associated with lung hypoplasia in CDH leads to a high mortality rate at birth. PPHT is principally due to an increased muscularization of the arterioles. Management of CDH has been greatly improved by the introduction of prenatal surgical intervention with tracheal obstruction (TO) and by more appropriate postnatal care. TO appears to accelerate fetal lung growth and to increase the number of capillary vessels and alveoli. Improvement of postnatal care over the last years is mainly due to the avoidance of lung injury by applying low peak inflation pressure during ventilation. The benefits of other drugs or technical improvements such as the use of inhaled nitric oxide or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) are still being debated and no single strategy is accepted worldwide. Despite intensive clinical and experimental research, the treatment of newborn with CDH remains difficult.

Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Igneous layering, fractional crystallization and growth of granitic plutons: The Dolbel batholith in SW Niger

This study reassesses the development of compositional layering during the growth of granitic plutons, with emphasis on fractional crystallization and its interaction with both injection and inflation-related deformation. The Dolbel batholith (SW Niger) consists of 14, kilometre-sized plutons emplaced by pulsed magma inputs. Each pluton has a coarse-grained core and a peripheral layered series. Rocks consist of albite (An(<= 11)), K-feldspar (Or(96 99), Ab(1) (4)), quartz, edenite (X(Mg)=0337-0.55), augite (X(Mg)=0.65-0.72) and accessories (apatite, titanite and Fe-Ti-oxides). Whole-rock compositions are metaluminous, sodic (K(2)O/Na(2)O=0.49-0.62) and iron-rich [FeO(tot)/(FeO(tot)+MgO)=0.65-0.82]. The layering is present as size-graded and modally graded, sub-vertical, rhythmic units. Each unit is composed of three layers, which are, towards the interior: edenite +/- plagioclase (C(a/p)), edenite+plagioclase+augite+quartz (C(q)), and edenite+plagioclase+augite+quartz+K-feldspar (C(k)). All phases except quartz show zoned microstructures consisting of external intercumulus overgrowths, a central section showing oscillatory zoning and, in the case of amphibole and titanite, complexly zoned cores. Ba and Sr contents of feldspars decrease towards the rims. Plagioclase crystal size distributions are similar in all units, suggesting that each unit experienced a similar thermal history. Edenite, characteristic of the basal C(a/p) layer, is the earliest phase to crystallize. Microtextures and phase diagrams suggest that edenite cores may have been brought up with magma batches at the site of emplacement and mechanically segregated along the crystallized wall, whereas outer zones of the same crystals formed in situ. The subsequent C(q) layers correspond to cotectic compositions in the Qz-Ab-Or phase diagram at P(H2O)=5 kbar. Each rhythmic unit may therefore correspond to a magma batch and their repetition to crystallization of recurrent magma recharges. Microtextures and chemical variations in major phases allow four main crystallization stages to be distinguished: (1) open-system crystallization in a stirred magma during magma emplacement, involving dissolution and overgrowth (core of edenite and titanite crystals); (2) in situ fractional crystallization in boundary layers (C(a/p) and C(q) layers); (3) equilibrium `en masse' eutectic crystallization (C(k) layers); (4) compaction and crystallization of the interstitial liquid in a highly crystallized mush (e. g. feldspar intercumulus overgrowths). It is concluded that the formation of the layered series in the Dolbel plutons corresponds principally to in situ differentiation of successive magma batches. The variable thickness of the Ck layers and the microtextures show that crystallization of a rhythmic unit stops and it is compacted when a new magma batch is injected into the chamber. Therefore, assembly of pulsed magma injections and fractional crystallization are independent, but complementary, processes during pluton construction.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Reactive rise in blood pressure upon cuff inflation: cuff inflation at the arm causes a greater rise in pressure than at the wrist in hypertensive patients.

OBJECTIVE: Cuff inflation at the arm is known to cause an instantaneous rise in blood pressure, which might be due to the discomfort of the procedure and might interfere with the precision of the blood pressure measurement. In this study, we compared the reactive rise in blood pressure induced by cuff inflation when the cuff was placed at the upper arm level and at the wrist. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: The reactive rise in systolic and diastolic blood pressure to cuff inflation was measured in 34 normotensive participants and 34 hypertensive patients. Each participant was equipped with two cuffs, one around the right upper arm (OMRON HEM-CR19, 22-32 cm) and one around the right wrist (OMRON HEM-CS 19, 17-22 cm; Omron Health Care Europe BV, Hoofddorp, The Netherlands). The cuffs were inflated in a double random order (maximal cuff pressure and position of the cuff) with two maximal cuff pressures: 180 and 240 mmHg. The cuffs were linked to an oscillometric device (OMRON HEM 907; Omron Health Care). Simultaneously, blood pressure was measured continuously at the middle finger of the left hand using photoplethysmography. Three measurements were made at each level of blood pressure at the arm and at the wrist, and the sequence of measurements was randomized. RESULTS: In normotensive participants, no significant difference was observed in the reactive rise in blood pressure when the cuff was inflated either at the arm or at the wrist irrespective of the level of cuff inflation. Inflating a cuff at the arm, however, induced a significantly greater rise in blood pressure than inflating it at the wrist in hypertensive participants for both systolic and diastolic pressures (P<0.01), and at both levels of cuff inflation. The blood pressure response to cuff inflation was independent of baseline blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that in hypertensive patients, cuff inflation at the wrist produces a smaller reactive rise in blood pressure. The difference between the arm and the wrist is independent of the patient's level of blood pressure.

Répercussions de l'agression sur le métabolisme et la composition corporelle chez l'individu obèse : Nutrition de l'obèse agressé. [Repercussions of injury on metabolic and body composition factors in obese individuals : Nutrition and obese critical patients]

La réponse métabolique de l'obèse apparemment « sainen situation d'agression aiguë (polytraumatisés, traumatisés crâniens, patients chirurgicaux, grands brûlés, opérations électives) ne se distingue pas ou peu de celle de l'individu non-obèse. Cependant, les complications médicales liées à l'agression (insuffisances respiratoire et cardiaque, bronchopneumonie, infections de plaies, thrombophlébites et embolies) demeurent plus importantes chez l'obèse morbide que chez l'individu de poids normal. Grâce à l'inflation de ses réserves énergétiques, l'obèse apparemment sain est avantagé, par rapport au sujet mince, au cours d'une agression nutritionnelle chronique telle que le jeûne prolongé. Le facteur fonctionnel limitant la survie dépend avant tout de la composition corporelle initiale et du degré d'adaptation métabolique (et comportementale) en particulier du degré de conservation de la masse maigre par rapport à la masse grasse. La mobilisation accrue de la masse grasse associée à la perte de poids chez l'obèse (par rapport à son homologue non-obèse) est favorable à une prolongation de la vie, car, en brûlant davantage de graisse corporelle, la part des protéines corporelles endogènes utilisée à des fins énergétiques est plus faible. Il s'ensuit chez l'obèse qu'un niveau de masse maigre critique pour la survie n'est atteint qu'après une réduction très marquée de ses réserves énergétiques. En revanche, le sujet mince perd davantage de masse maigre lors de l'amaigrissement et, par conséquent, son métabolisme de repos diminuera plus rapidement que celui du sujet obèse. Cela peut constituer un avantage énergétique évident en termes d'économie d'énergie consécutive à l'adaptation métabolique, mais un inconvénient majeur quant à la durée de la survie. The metabolic response of « apparently healthyobese individuals following acute injury (multiple trauma, head injury and surgical patients, extended burns, elective surgery) is not dramatically different from that of a non-obese individuals. However, the medical complications following the injury (respiratory and cardiac insufficiency, broncho-pneumonia, infections of wounds, trombophlebitis and embolism) are more prevalent in morbid obese patients than in individuals of normal body weight. Because of a large increase in their individuals energy store, "apparently healthy" obese individuals have an advantage over very lean subjects when exposed to a chronic nutritional aggression such as total fasting. The functional limiting factor for survival depends primarily on initial body composition and the magnitude of metabolic adaptation (including behavioral adaptation). The key factor is the extent to which the fat-free mass is maintained (versus to the fat mass) during weight loss. The increased proportion of body fat mobilized during weight loss in obese patients, compared with their non-obese counterparts, favors prolonged survival, because more adipose tissue is burned off, the fraction of body protein endogenously utilized for energy purpose individuals, is smaller. This implies that obese individuals do not reach a fat-free mass "critical" for their survival until their energy stores reach very low values. In contrast, lean subject tend to lose more fat-free mass during weight loss than obese subjects and, as a result, their energy expenditure drops more rapidly. This may offer a potential advantage in terms of energy economy (more energy saving) but a major disadvantage in terms of duration of survival.