The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Disease-causing mutations improving the branch site and polypyrimidine tract: pseudoexon activation of LINE-2 and antisense Alu lacking the poly(T)-tail.

Cryptic exons or pseudoexons are typically activated by point mutations that create GT or AG dinucleotides of new 5' or 3' splice sites in introns, often in repetitive elements. Here we describe two cases of tetrahydrobiopterin deficiency caused by mutations improving the branch point sequence and polypyrimidine tracts of repeat-containing pseudoexons in the PTS gene. In the first case, we demonstrate a novel pathway of antisense Alu exonization, resulting from an intronic deletion that removed the poly(T)-tail of antisense AluSq. The deletion brought a favorable branch point sequence within proximity of the pseudoexon 3' splice site and removed an upstream AG dinucleotide required for the 3' splice site repression on normal alleles. New Alu exons can thus arise in the absence of poly(T)-tails that facilitated inclusion of most transposed elements in mRNAs by serving as polypyrimidine tracts, highlighting extraordinary flexibility of Alu repeats in shaping intron-exon structure. In the other case, a PTS pseudoexon was activated by an A>T substitution 9 nt upstream of its 3' splice site in a LINE-2 sequence, providing the first example of a disease-causing exonization of the most ancient interspersed repeat. These observations expand the spectrum of mutational mechanisms that introduce repetitive sequences in mature transcripts and illustrate the importance of intronic mutations in alternative splicing and phenotypic variability of hereditary disorders.

Improving the performance of positive selection inference by filtering unreliable alignment regions.

Errors in the inferred multiple sequence alignment may lead to false prediction of positive selection. Recently, methods for detecting unreliable alignment regions were developed and were shown to accurately identify incorrectly aligned regions. While removing unreliable alignment regions is expected to increase the accuracy of positive selection inference, such filtering may also significantly decrease the power of the test, as positively selected regions are fast evolving, and those same regions are often those that are difficult to align. Here, we used realistic simulations that mimic sequence evolution of HIV-1 genes to test the hypothesis that the performance of positive selection inference using codon models can be improved by removing unreliable alignment regions. Our study shows that the benefit of removing unreliable regions exceeds the loss of power due to the removal of some of the true positively selected sites.

Improving appropriateness of antibiotic therapy: randomized trial of an intervention to foster reassessment of prescription after 3 days.

OBJECTIVES: Reassessment of ongoing antibiotic therapy is an important step towards appropriate use of antibiotics. This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of a short questionnaire designed to encourage reassessment of intravenous antibiotic therapy after 3 days. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients hospitalized on the surgical and medical wards of a university hospital and treated with an intravenous antibiotic for 3-4 days were randomly allocated to either an intervention or control group. The intervention consisted of mailing to the physician in charge of the patient a three-item questionnaire referring to possible adaptation of the antibiotic therapy. The primary outcome was the time elapsed from randomization until a first modification of the initial intravenous antibiotic therapy. It was compared within both groups using Cox proportional-hazard modelling. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-six eligible patients were randomized in the intervention group and 125 in the control group. Time to modification of intravenous antibiotic therapy was 14% shorter in the intervention group (adjusted hazard ratio for modification 1.28, 95% CI 0.99-1.67, P = 0.06). It was significantly shorter in the intervention group compared with a similar group of 151 patients observed during a 2 month period preceding the study (adjusted hazard ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.03-1.32, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: The results suggest that a short questionnaire, easily adaptable to automatization, has the potential to foster reassessment of antibiotic therapy.

Improving binding affinity and stability of peptide ligands by substituting glycines with D-amino acids.

Improving the binding affinity and/or stability of peptide ligands often requires testing of large numbers of variants to identify beneficial mutations. Herein we propose a type of mutation that promises a high success rate. In a bicyclic peptide inhibitor of the cancer-related protease urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA), we observed a glycine residue that has a positive ϕ dihedral angle when bound to the target. We hypothesized that replacing it with a D-amino acid, which favors positive ϕ angles, could enhance the binding affinity and/or proteolytic resistance. Mutation of this specific glycine to D-serine in the bicyclic peptide indeed improved inhibitory activity (1.75-fold) and stability (fourfold). X-ray-structure analysis of the inhibitors in complex with uPA showed that the peptide backbone conformation was conserved. Analysis of known cyclic peptide ligands showed that glycine is one of the most frequent amino acids, and that glycines with positive ϕ angles are found in many protein-bound peptides. These results suggest that the glycine-to-D-amino acid mutagenesis strategy could be broadly applied.

Improving prediction of recanalization in acute large-vessel occlusive stroke.

BACKGROUND: Recanalization in acute ischemic stroke with large-vessel occlusion is a potent indicator of good clinical outcome. OBJECTIVE: To identify easily available clinical and radiologic variables predicting recanalization at various occlusion sites. METHODS: All consecutive, acute stroke patients from the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (2003-2011) who had a large-vessel occlusion on computed tomographic angiography (CTA) (< 12 h) were included. Recanalization status was assessed at 24 h (range: 12-48 h) with CTA, magnetic resonance angiography, or ultrasonography. Complete and partial recanalization (corresponding to the modified Treatment in Cerebral Ischemia scale 2-3) were grouped together. Patients were categorized according to occlusion site and treatment modality. RESULTS: Among 439 patients, 51% (224) showed complete or partial recanalization. In multivariate analysis, recanalization of any occlusion site was most strongly associated with endovascular treatment, including bridging therapy (odds ratio [OR] 7.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-23.2), and less so with intravenous thrombolysis (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.6) and recanalization treatments performed beyond guidelines (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.7). Clot location (large vs. intermediate) and tandem pathology (the combination of intracranial occlusion and symptomatic extracranial stenosis) were other variables discriminating between recanalizers and non-recanalizers. For patients with intracranial occlusions, the variables significantly associated with recanalization after 24 h were: baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.1), Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) on initial computed tomography (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3), and an altered level of consciousness (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Acute endovascular treatment is the single most important factor promoting recanalization in acute ischemic stroke. The presence of extracranial vessel stenosis or occlusion decreases recanalization rates. In patients with intracranial occlusions, higher NIHSS score and ASPECTS and normal vigilance facilitate recanalization. Clinical use of these predictors could influence recanalization strategies in individual patients.

Improving influenza vaccination rates in the elderly.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination coverage for influenza in the elderly remains low when the physician is the only person responsible for immunization. Integration of other health care workers may improve the coverage rate of at-risk groups. OBJECTIVES: To estimate vaccination coverage rate by using a strategy based on the systematic intervention of a health care professional proposing vaccination before the doctor's consultation, to evaluate the changes in coverage rates before and after introduction of this strategy, and to assess the feasibility of this intervention and the achieved coverage rate in family physician offices. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study in a medical outpatient clinic and 5 family physician practices in Switzerland. POPULATION: Participants consisted of all patients 65 years or older attending a medical outpatient clinic during the vaccination period in 1999 (n = 401), patients 65 years or older regularly followed at a medical outpatient clinic in 1998 and 1999 (n = 195), and patients 65 years or older presenting to 5 family physician offices in 1999 (n = 598). OUTCOME MEASURED: Rates of vaccination coverage. RESULTS: Among all participants, vaccination coverage rates in 1999 were 85% at the medical outpatient clinic and 83% in family physician offices. Among participants regularly followed at the medical outpatient clinic, vaccination coverage increased from 48% in 1998 to 76% in 1999. Rates of refusal were 9% at the medical outpatient clinic and 14% in the family physician offices. CONCLUSIONS: The systematic intervention of a health care professional to suggest vaccination before the doctor's visit is an effective measure to achieve high coverage rate. Such a strategy also improves outpatient clinic or private practice efficiency by reducing pressures on physicians.

Improving anemia management with less frequently dosed erythropoiesis stimulating agents

Introduction and Aims: The process of delivering erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs) to hemodialysis patients (HD) is complex. Many European countries are requiring centers to document this process. To date, there has not been any comprehensive description of the operational aspects of ESA delivery in Europe. The objective of the Mercurius study was to describe the entire process of ESA delivery in dialysis centers. In addition, we explored the benefits of less frequent dosing. Methods: A conceptual model was developed to classify the sub-processes in the pharmacy, dialysis unit, waste unit, and back office. Within each dialysis unit activities associated with dose determination, ordering procedures, receipt and storage of ESAs, and ESA administration were measured. Within the pharmacy, ordering from supplier, receiving and storing, and delivering ESA to the dialysis unit were measured. The amount of time and materials associated with waste disposal and back office activities were also observed. We also evaluated the impact of less frequent dosing on the resources required to perform anemia management for HD patients. Structured interviews with staff were used to develop a comprehensive list of processes, sub-processes, and activities that are routinely followed to order, register, administer, and dispose of waste associated with ESAs. Each activity was evaluated to determine if less frequent dosing influenced the amount of resources required. A model was developed to estimate the change in resources consumed using less frequent dosing regimens. Results: Eight centers from 5 European countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Sweden, and Switzerland) participated in the study. The number of HD patients in each center ranged from 42 to 707 (mean=175). Across all of the centers, patients received a variety of dosing regimens (eg, TIW, BIW, QW and Q2W). The mean (±SD) time spent for the pharmacy to order an ESA from the supplier was 6.1 (±8.7) minutes; time spent in the dialysis unit and pharmacy for receiving and storing ESPs was 5.3 (±5.3) and 10.0 (±10.9) minutes, respectively; and time spent administering each injection was 6.4 (±6.5) minutes. Switching from current dosing practices to Q2W could decrease the mean number of syringes used from 12,420 to 5,085 per year. We estimate a reduction in the number of disinfective tissues and liquids of 58% and 71%, respectively by switching from current practice to dosing ESAs Q2W. Conclusions: There was significant variation in the time that it takes to perform routine ESA activities. We estimate that a reduction in resources required to manage anemia can be obtained by reducing the frequency of administration from the current mix of ESAs. These resources could be redeployed for patient care.

A Note on improving Contact Times in Panel Surveys

With increasing costs for conducting surveys, many survey agencies resort to implementing call strategies. Obtaining contact in panel surveys as early as possible, without annoying people by contacting them at undesired times and ultimately causing them to refuse, requires using efficient call time strategies. In this research, the author uses call data from the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), a centralized Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) survey with a randomized (experimental) call-household assignment. Using random effects models, the author analyzes the efficiency gains of obtaining initial contact by assigning optimal times to first calls, and times and spacing to second and later calls depending on household sociodemography and prior call patterns. The author concludes with some recommendations for making early and successful contact during fieldwork.

The required beta cell research for improving treatment of type 2 diabetes.

In healthy individuals, insulin resistance is associated with physiological conditions such as pregnancy or body weight gain and triggers an increase in beta cell number and insulin secretion capacity to preserve normoglycaemia. Failure of this beta cell compensation capacity is a fundamental cause of diabetic hyperglycaemia. Incomplete understanding of the molecular mechanisms controlling the plasticity of adult beta cells mechanisms and how these cells fail during the pathogenesis of diabetes strongly limits the ability to develop new beta cell-specific therapies. Here, current knowledge of the signalling pathways controlling beta cell plasticity is reviewed, and possible directions for future research are discussed.

Improving blood pressure control through pharmacist interventions: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Control of blood pressure (BP) remains a major challenge in primary care. Innovative interventions to improve BP control are therefore needed. By updating and combining data from 2 previous systematic reviews, we assess the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP and identify potential determinants of heterogeneity. METHODS AND RESULTS: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP among outpatients with or without diabetes were identified from MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. Weighted mean differences in BP were estimated using random effect models. Prediction intervals (PI) were computed to better express uncertainties in the effect estimates. Thirty-nine RCTs were included with 14 224 patients. Pharmacist interventions mainly included patient education, feedback to physician, and medication management. Compared with usual care, pharmacist interventions showed greater reduction in systolic BP (-7.6 mm Hg, 95% CI: -9.0 to -6.3; I(2)=67%) and diastolic BP (-3.9 mm Hg, 95% CI: -5.1 to -2.8; I(2)=83%). The 95% PI ranged from -13.9 to -1.4 mm Hg for systolic BP and from -9.9 to +2.0 mm Hg for diastolic BP. The effect tended to be larger if the intervention was led by the pharmacist and was done at least monthly. CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacist interventions - alone or in collaboration with other healthcare professionals - improved BP management. Nevertheless, pharmacist interventions had differential effects on BP, from very large to modest or no effect; and determinants of heterogeneity could not be identified. Determining the most efficient, cost-effective, and least time-consuming intervention should be addressed with further research.

Improving the implementation of evidence-based knowledge in healthcare

The pace of development of new healthcare technologies and related knowledge is very fast. Implementation of high quality evidence-based knowledge is thus mandatory to warrant an effective healthcare system and patient safety. However, even though only a small fraction of the approximate 2500 scientific publication indexed daily in Medline is actually useful to clinical practice, the amountof the new information is much too large to allow busy healthcare professionals to stay aware of possibly important evidence-based information.

Transhepatic ipsilateral right portal vein embolization extended to segment IV: improving hypertrophy and resection outcomes with spherical particles and coils.

PURPOSE: To analyze outcomes after right portal vein embolization extended to segment IV (right PVE + IV) before extended right hepatectomy, including liver hypertrophy, resection rates, and complications after embolization and resection, and to assess differences in outcomes with two different particulate embolic agents. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 1998 and 2004, transhepatic ipsilateral right PVE + IV with particles and coils was performed in 44 patients with malignant hepatobiliary disease, including metastases (n = 24), biliary cancer (n = 14), and hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 6). Right PVE + IV was considered if the future liver remnant (FLR; segments II/III with or without I) was less than 25% of the total estimated liver volume (TELV). Tris-acryl microspheres (100-700 microm; n = 21) or polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) particles (355-1,000 microm; n = 23) were administered in a stepwise fashion. Smaller particles were used to occlude distal branches, followed by larger particles to occlude proximal branches until near-complete stasis. Coils were then placed in secondary portal branches. Computed tomographic volumetry was performed before and 3-4 weeks after right PVE + IV to assess FLR hypertrophy. Liver volumes and postembolization and postoperative outcomes were measured. RESULTS: After right PVE + IV with PVA particles, FLR volume increased 45.5% +/- 40.9% and FLR/TELV ratio increased 6.9% +/- 5.6%. After right PVE + IV with tris-acryl microspheres, FLR volume increased 69.0% +/- 30.7% and FLR/TELV ratio increased 9.7% +/- 3.3%. Differences in FLR volume (P = .0011), FLR/TELV ratio (P = .027), and resection rates (P = .02) were statistically significant. Seventy-one percent of patients underwent extended right hepatectomy (86% after receiving tris-acryl microspheres, 57% after receiving PVA). Thirteen patients (29%) did not undergo resection (extrahepatic spread [n = 9], inadequate hypertrophy [n = 3], other reasons [n = 1]). No patient developed postembolization syndrome or progressive liver insufficiency after embolization or resection. One death after resection occurred as a result of sepsis and hemorrhage. Median hospital stays were 1 day after right PVE + IV and 7 days after resection. CONCLUSION: Transhepatic ipsilateral right PVE + IV with use of particles and coils is a safe, effective method for inducing contralateral hypertrophy before extended right hepatectomy. Embolization with small spherical particles provides improved hypertrophy and resection rates compared with larger, nonspherical particles.