Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

The evolution of helping and harming on graphs: the return of the inclusive fitness effect.

Evolutionary graph theory has been proposed as providing new fundamental rules for the evolution of co-operation and altruism. But how do these results relate to those of inclusive fitness theory? Here, we carry out a retrospective analysis of the models for the evolution of helping on graphs of Ohtsuki et al. [Nature (2006) 441, 502] and Ohtsuki & Nowak [Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B Biol. Sci (2006) 273, 2249]. We show that it is possible to translate evolutionary graph theory models into classical kin selection models without disturbing at all the mathematics describing the net effect of selection on helping. Model analysis further demonstrates that costly helping evolves on graphs through limited dispersal and overlapping generations. These two factors are well known to promote relatedness between interacting individuals in spatially structured populations. By allowing more than one individual to live at each node of the graph and by allowing interactions to vary with the distance between nodes, our inclusive fitness model allows us to consider a wider range of biological scenarios leading to the evolution of both helping and harming behaviours on graphs.

Les méthodes d'ajustement dans les modèles d'évaluation de la mortalité hospitalière. Partie 1, Etude descriptive : document de travail

Suite à la demande du Président de la République de disposer d'indicateurs de mortalité en établissements de santé » (discours du 18 septembre 2008 sur le thème de la politique de la santé et de la réforme du système de soins), la Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques (DREES) a piloté en 2009, en lien avec la Direction générale de l'offre de soins (DGOS) et la Haute autorité de santé (HAS), l'instruction des aspects méthodologiques relatifs à la construction de ces indicateurs de mortalité. Cette revue de littérature portant sur les différentes méthodes d'ajustement a été réalisée dans ce cadre, à la demande conjointe de la DREES et de la HAS.Ce rapport décrit les méthodes et modèles d'estimation et d'ajustement de la mortalité hospitalière identifiées dans la littérature.Il ressort de cette revue, que d'une manière générale, trois questions méthodologiques majeures préoccupent les épidémiologistes, les chercheurs et les décideurs s'intéressant à l'indicateur de la mortalité hospitalière : i) premièrement, sur l'opportunité d'établir l'indicateur de mortalité hospitalière à partir de groupes de population de patients homogènes définis par des pathologies et/ou des procédures médicales/chirurgicales cibles ; ii) deuxièmement, sur le type d'approche analytique et de l'intérêt de prendre en compte plusieurs niveaux dans l'analyse statistique ; iii) enfin troisièmement, sur le choix des variables d'ajustement permettant de contrôler les différences de case-mix entre plusieurs établissements ou groupes de patients pour réaliser des comparaisons. [Ed.]

The contribution of individual and professional characteristics to general and work-related well-being

Cette thèse porte sur la contribution des caractéristiques individuelles et des situations professionnelles au bien-être. En combinant différentes perspectives théoriques, notamment la théorie de la construction de la carrière, la théorie de la justice organisationnelle, les modèles du bien-être au travail, et les conceptualisations de l'incivilité au travail, un certain nombre d'hypothèses sont proposées concernant le lien entre certaines caractéristiques individuelles et situationnelles et le bien-être général et professionnel. Les deux premières études se focalisent sur la validation d'une échelle d'adaptabilités de carrière et sur le rôle médiateur de cette adaptabilité dans la relation entre des dispositions et le bien-être. La troisième étude évolue l'hypothèse d'un possible effet de médiation de l'adaptabilité mais cette fois de la relation entre insécurité professionnelle et charge de travail d'une part et le bien-être d'autre part. La quatrième étude adopte une perspective longitudinale et analyse les associations entre les dimensions de la personnalité, l'adaptabilité de carrière et le bien-être dans quatre parcours professionnels différents. La cinquième étude porte sur une autre caractéristique individuelle, à savoir la croyance en un monde juste. Cette étude illustre comment la croyance en un monde juste influence les perceptions de justice organisationnelle une année après, qui ont une incidence importante sur le bien-être. Enfin, la dernière étude se concentre sur une population spécifique, les immigrants en Suisse, et souligne qu'être la cible d'incivilité sur le lieu de travail est généralement liée au pays d'origine. Globalement, cette thèse met en évidence que les caractéristiques individuelles ont des effets tant directs qu'indirects sur le bien-être et que ces mêmes caractéristiques explique en partie, les relations entre la situation professionnelle et le bien-être. Plus spécifiquement, des situations professionnelles peuvent influencer l'expression de certaines caractéristiques individuelles, soit en contribuant à leurs activations ou à leurs inhibitions. De plus, l'impact des caractéristiques individuelles sur le bien-être semble dépendre de la situation professionnelle. Il est donc important de considérer les influences simultanées et réciproques des caractéristiques individuelles et de la situation contextuelle et professionnelle pour rendre compte du bien-être général et professionnel. -- This thesis explores how individual characteristics and professional situations correspond to well-being. Drawing from various theoretical backgrounds, such as career construction theory, justice theory, models of job strain, and theories on subtle discrimination, a number of specific hypotheses are put forward pertaining to a selection of individual and professional aspects as well as general and work-related well-being. The six studies presented in this thesis focus on specific aspects and adopt different methodological and theoretical approaches. The first two studies concern the validation of the career adapt-abilities scale and test the potential of career adapt-abilities to mediate the relationship between dispositions and outcomes. The third study extends the hypothesis of career adapt-abilities as a mediator and finds that it mediates the effects of job insecurity and job strain on general and professional well-being. The fourth study adopts a longitudinal approach and tests the associations between personality traits and career adaptability and well-being in four different professional situations. Study five concerns another individual characteristic, belief in a just world, and illustrates how justice beliefs drive perceptions of organizational justice, which in turn impact, on well-being outcomes one year later. The final study focuses on the professional experiences of a specific population, immigrants in Switzerland, and confirms that being a target of incivilities is related to national origin. Globally, this thesis finds that individual characteristics have direct and indirect influences on well-being and that these characteristics may also mediate the associations between professional situations and outcomes. In particular, the professional situation may alter the display of individual characteristics, either by contributing to their activation or their depletion, and the ways in which individual factors influence well-being does seem to depend on the professional situation. It is thus necessary to adopt a "both...and" perspective when studying the impact of individual and professional characteristics as these factors mutually influence each other.

Ispol'zovanie metodov teorii vosstanovleniia v modeliakh optimal'nogo dobyvaniia pishchi [Restoration theory in models of optimal feeding behavior]

The method of stochastic dynamic programming is widely used in ecology of behavior, but has some imperfections because of use of temporal limits. The authors presented an alternative approach based on the methods of the theory of restoration. Suggested method uses cumulative energy reserves per time unit as a criterium, that leads to stationary cycles in the area of states. This approach allows to study the optimal feeding by analytic methods.

Processes models, environmental analyses, and cognitive architectures: Quo vadis quantum probability theory? (Commentary on Pothos and Busemeyer)

A lot of research in cognition and decision making suffers from a lack of formalism. The quantum probability program could help to improve this situation, but we wonder whether it would provide even more added value if its presumed focus on outcome models were complemented by process models that are, ideally, informed by ecological analyses and integrated into cognitive architectures.

The French adaptation of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents Self-Rated Form (F-HoNOSCA-SR): Validation and clinical routine use.

The current study aimed to explore the validity of an adaptation into French of the self-rated form of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales for Children and Adolescents (F-HoNOSCA-SR) and to test its usefulness in a clinical routine use. One hundred and twenty nine patients, admitted into two inpatient units, were asked to participate in the study. One hundred and seven patients filled out the F-HoNOSCA-SR (for a subsample (N=17): at two occasions, one week apart) and the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ). In addition, the clinician rated the clinician-rated form of the HoNOSCA (HoNOSCA-CR, N=82). The reliability (assessed with split-half coefficient, item response theory (IRT) models and intraclass correlations (ICC) between the two occasions) revealed that the F-HoNSOCA-SR provides reliable measures. The concurrent validity assessed by correlating the F-HoNOSCA-SR and the SDQ revealed a good convergent validity of the instrument. The relationship analyses between the F-HoNOSCA-SR and the HoNOSCA-CR revealed weak but significant correlations. The comparison between the F-HoNOSCA-SR and the HoNOSCA-CR with paired sample t-tests revealed a higher score for the self-rated version. The F-HoNSOCA-SR was reported to provide reliable measures. In addition, it allows us to measure complementary information when used together with the HoNOSCA-CR.

Developing a theoretical framework using a nursing perspective to investigate perceived health in the "Sandwich Generation" group

Coexisting workloads from professional, household and family, and caregiving activities for frail parents expose middle-aged individuals, the so-called "Sandwich Generation", to potential health risks. Current trends suggest that this situation will continue or increase. Thus SG health promotion has become a nursing concern. Most existing research considers coexisting workloads a priori pathogenic. Most studies have examined the association of one, versus two, of these three activities with health. Few studies have used a nursing perspective. This article presents the development of a framework based on a nursing model. We integrated Siegrist's Effort-Reward Imbalance middle-range theory into "Neuman Systems Model". The latter was chosen for its salutogenic orientation, its attention to preventive nursing interventions and the opportunity it provides to simultaneously consider positive and negative perceptions of SG health and SG coexisting workloads. Finally, it facilitated a theoretical identification of health protective factors.

Theory of mind impairment in patients with behavioural variant fronto-temporal dementia (bv-FTD) increases caregiver burden.

BACKGROUND: Theory of mind (ToM), the capacity to infer the intention, beliefs and emotional states of others, is frequently impaired in behavioural variant fronto-temporal dementia patients (bv-FTDp); however, its impact on caregiver burden is unexplored. SETTING: National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Institutes of Health. SUBJECTS: bv-FTDp (n = 28), a subgroup of their caregivers (n = 20) and healthy controls (n = 32). METHODS: we applied a faux-pas (FP) task as a ToM measure in bv-FTDp and healthy controls and the Zarit Burden Interview as a measure of burden in patients' caregivers. Patients underwent structural MRI; we used voxel-based morphometry to examine relationships between regional atrophy and ToM impairment and caregiver burden. RESULTS: FP task performance was impaired in bv-FTDp and negatively associated with caregiver burden. Atrophy was found in areas involved in ToM. Caregiver burden increased with greater atrophy in left lateral premotor cortex, a region associated in animal models with the presence of mirror neurons, possibly involved in empathy. CONCLUSION: ToM impairment in bv-FTDp is associated with increased caregiver burden.

Physiotherapy practice in the private sector: organizational characteristics and models.

BACKGROUND: Even if a large proportion of physiotherapists work in the private sector worldwide, very little is known of the organizations within which they practice. Such knowledge is important to help understand contexts of practice and how they influence the quality of services and patient outcomes. The purpose of this study was to: 1) describe characteristics of organizations where physiotherapists practice in the private sector, and 2) explore the existence of a taxonomy of organizational models. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional quantitative survey of 236 randomly-selected physiotherapists. Participants completed a purpose-designed questionnaire online or by telephone, covering organizational vision, resources, structures and practices. Organizational characteristics were analyzed descriptively, while organizational models were identified by multiple correspondence analyses. RESULTS: Most organizations were for-profit (93.2%), located in urban areas (91.5%), and within buildings containing multiple businesses/organizations (76.7%). The majority included multiple providers (89.8%) from diverse professions, mainly physiotherapy assistants (68.7%), massage therapists (67.3%) and osteopaths (50.2%). Four organizational models were identified: 1) solo practice, 2) middle-scale multiprovider, 3) large-scale multiprovider and 4) mixed. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study provide a detailed description of the organizations where physiotherapists practice, and highlight the importance of human resources in differentiating organizational models. Further research examining the influences of these organizational characteristics and models on outcomes such as physiotherapists' professional practices and patient outcomes are needed.

Women's decision making and experience of subsequent pregnancy following stillbirth.

INTRODUCTION: This study sought to increase understanding of women's thoughts and feelings about decision making and the experience of subsequent pregnancy following stillbirth (intrauterine death after 24 weeks' gestation). METHODS: Eleven women were interviewed, 8 of whom were pregnant at the time of the interview. Modified grounded theory was used to guide the research methodology and to analyze the data. RESULTS: A model was developed to illustrate women's experiences of decision making in relation to subsequent pregnancy and of subsequent pregnancy itself. DISCUSSION: The results of the current study have significant implications for women who have experienced stillbirth and the health professionals who work with them. Based on the model, women may find it helpful to discuss their beliefs in relation to healing and health professionals to provide support with this in mind. Women and their partners may also benefit from explanations and support about the potentially conflicting emotions they may experience during this time.

Serum Leptin Concentration, Body Mass Index and Incident Heart Failure: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Leptin is produced primarily by adipocytes. Although originally associated with the central regulation of satiety and energy metabolism, increasing evidence indicates that leptin may be an important factor for congestive heart faire (CHF). In the study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that leptin may influence CHF pathophysiology via a pathway of increasing body mass index (BMI). Methods: We studied 2,389 elderly participants aged 70 and older (M; 1161, F: 1228) without CHF and with serum leptin measures at the Health Aging, and Body Composition study. We analyzed the association between serum leptin level and risk of incident CHF using Cox hazard proportional regression models. Elevated leptin level was defined as more than the highest quartile (Q4) of leptin distribution in the total sample for each gender. Adjusted-covariates included demographic, behavior, lipid and inflammation variables (partially-adjusted models), and further included BMI (fully-adjusted models). Results: In a mean 9-year follow-up, 316 participants (13.2%) developed CHF. The partially-adjusted models indicated that men and women with elevated serum leptin levels (>=9.89 ng/ml in men and >=25 ng/ml in women) had significantly higher risks of developing CHF than those with leptin level of less than Q4. The adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident CHF was 1.49 (1.04 -2.13) in men and 1.71 (1.12 -2.58) in women. However, these associations became non-significant after adjustment for including BMI for each gender. The fully-adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) were 1.43 (0.94 -2.18) in men and 1.24 (0.77-1.99) in women. Conclusion: Subjects with elevated leptin levels have a higher risk of CHF. The study supports the hypothesis that the influence of leptin level on risk of CHF may be through a pathway related to increasing BMI.