Three essays on major trends in a slow clockspeed industry : the case of industrial automation

The motivation for this research initiated from the abrupt rise and fall of minicomputers which were initially used both for industrial automation and business applications due to their significantly lower cost than their predecessors, the mainframes. Later industrial automation developed its own vertically integrated hardware and software to address the application needs of uninterrupted operations, real-time control and resilience to harsh environmental conditions. This has led to the creation of an independent industry, namely industrial automation used in PLC, DCS, SCADA and robot control systems. This industry employs today over 200'000 people in a profitable slow clockspeed context in contrast to the two mainstream computing industries of information technology (IT) focused on business applications and telecommunications focused on communications networks and hand-held devices. Already in 1990s it was foreseen that IT and communication would merge into one Information and communication industry (ICT). The fundamental question of the thesis is: Could industrial automation leverage a common technology platform with the newly formed ICT industry? Computer systems dominated by complex instruction set computers (CISC) were challenged during 1990s with higher performance reduced instruction set computers (RISC). RISC started to evolve parallel to the constant advancement of Moore's law. These developments created the high performance and low energy consumption System-on-Chip architecture (SoC). Unlike to the CISC processors RISC processor architecture is a separate industry from the RISC chip manufacturing industry. It also has several hardware independent software platforms consisting of integrated operating system, development environment, user interface and application market which enables customers to have more choices due to hardware independent real time capable software applications. An architecture disruption merged and the smartphone and tablet market were formed with new rules and new key players in the ICT industry. Today there are more RISC computer systems running Linux (or other Unix variants) than any other computer system. The astonishing rise of SoC based technologies and related software platforms in smartphones created in unit terms the largest installed base ever seen in the history of computers and is now being further extended by tablets. An underlying additional element of this transition is the increasing role of open source technologies both in software and hardware. This has driven the microprocessor based personal computer industry with few dominating closed operating system platforms into a steep decline. A significant factor in this process has been the separation of processor architecture and processor chip production and operating systems and application development platforms merger into integrated software platforms with proprietary application markets. Furthermore the pay-by-click marketing has changed the way applications development is compensated: Three essays on major trends in a slow clockspeed industry: The case of industrial automation 2014 freeware, ad based or licensed - all at a lower price and used by a wider customer base than ever before. Moreover, the concept of software maintenance contract is very remote in the app world. However, as a slow clockspeed industry, industrial automation has remained intact during the disruptions based on SoC and related software platforms in the ICT industries. Industrial automation incumbents continue to supply systems based on vertically integrated systems consisting of proprietary software and proprietary mainly microprocessor based hardware. They enjoy admirable profitability levels on a very narrow customer base due to strong technology-enabled customer lock-in and customers' high risk leverage as their production is dependent on fault-free operation of the industrial automation systems. When will this balance of power be disrupted? The thesis suggests how industrial automation could join the mainstream ICT industry and create an information, communication and automation (ICAT) industry. Lately the Internet of Things (loT) and weightless networks, a new standard leveraging frequency channels earlier occupied by TV broadcasting, have gradually started to change the rigid world of Machine to Machine (M2M) interaction. It is foreseeable that enough momentum will be created that the industrial automation market will in due course face an architecture disruption empowered by these new trends. This thesis examines the current state of industrial automation subject to the competition between the incumbents firstly through a research on cost competitiveness efforts in captive outsourcing of engineering, research and development and secondly researching process re- engineering in the case of complex system global software support. Thirdly we investigate the industry actors', namely customers, incumbents and newcomers, views on the future direction of industrial automation and conclude with our assessments of the possible routes industrial automation could advance taking into account the looming rise of the Internet of Things (loT) and weightless networks. Industrial automation is an industry dominated by a handful of global players each of them focusing on maintaining their own proprietary solutions. The rise of de facto standards like IBM PC, Unix and Linux and SoC leveraged by IBM, Compaq, Dell, HP, ARM, Apple, Google, Samsung and others have created new markets of personal computers, smartphone and tablets and will eventually also impact industrial automation through game changing commoditization and related control point and business model changes. This trend will inevitably continue, but the transition to a commoditized industrial automation will not happen in the near future.

Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

Detection of nandrolone metabolites in urine after a football game in professional and amateur players: a Bayesian comparison.

Nandrolone (19-nortestosterone) is a widely used anabolic steroid in sports where strength plays an essential role. Once nandrolone has been metabolised, two major metabolites are excreted in urine, 19-norandrosterone (NA) and 19-noretiocholanolone (NE). In 1997, in France, quite a few sportsmen had concentrations of 19-norandrosterone very close to the IOC cut off limit (2ng/ml). At that time, a debate took place about the capability of the human male body to produce by itself these metabolites without any intake of nandrolone or related compounds. The International Football Federation (FIFA) was very concerned with this problematic, especially because the World Cup was about to start in France. In this respect, a statistical study was held with all football players from the first and second divisions of the Swiss Football National League. All players gave a urine sample after effort and around 6% of them showed traces of 19-norandrosterone. These results were compared with amateur football players (control group) and around 6% of them had very small amounts of 19-norandrosterone and/or 19-noretiocholanolone in urine after effort, whereas none of them had detectable traces of one or the other metabolite before effort. The origin of these compounds in urine after a strenuous physical activity is still unknown, but three hypotheses can be put forward. First, an endogenous production of nandrolone metabolites takes place. Second, nandrolone metabolites are released from the fatty tissues after an intake of nandrolone, some related compounds or some contaminated nutritive supplements. Finally, the sportsmen may have taken something during or just before the football game.

"Michael's Game," a card game for the treatment of psychotic symptoms.

Objective: "Michael's Game" is a card game which aims at familiarizing healthcare professionals and patients with cognitive therapy of psychotic symptoms. The present study tests the feasibility and the impact of the intervention in naturalistic settings.Methods: 135 patients were recruited in 11 centres. They were assessed pre- and post-tests with the Beck Cognitive Insight Scale (BCIS) and the Peters Delusion Inventory-21 items (PDI-21).Results: Data about 107 patients were included in the entire analyses. Significant improvements were observed on BCIS subscales as well as a reduction of severity of conviction and preoccupation scores on the PDI-21. The intervention has a moderate effect on the PDI-21 preoccupation and conviction as well as the BCIS subscales. Patients who benefit the most from the program are patients who have a low degree of self-reflectiveness and patients who are concomitantly preoccupied by their symptoms.Conclusion: The present study supports the feasibility and effectiveness of "Michael's Game" in naturalistic settings.Practical implications: The game seems to be a useful tool for patients with psychotic disorders. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Une nouvelle situation pour évaluer le fonctionnement familial: le jeu du pique-nique = A new situation to evaluate a family system's fuctioning: the picnic game.

Cet article présente une nouvelle situation, le Jeu du Pique-Nique, qui permet l'évaluation du fonctionnement familial, pris dans son ensemble, quel que soit le nombre d'enfants, âgés de quelques semaines à une douzaine d'années. L'évaluation est macroscopique, selon différentes dimensions comme le coparentage, la chaleur familiale, la dimension ludique, l'autonomie des enfants, etc. Pour illustrer la richesse des observations qu'offre cette situation, les jeux de trois familles contrastées sont présentés ainsi que leur codage. L'utilité en recherche ainsi qu'en clinique, et en particulier l'apport de la vision du film avec la famille, est discutée.

The tobacco industry's past role in weight control related to smoking.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is thought to produce an appetite-suppressing effect by many smokers. Thus, the fear of body weight gain often outweighs the perception of health benefits associated with smoking cessation, particularly in adolescents. We examined whether the tobacco industry played a role in appetite and body weight control related to smoking and smoking cessation. METHODS: We performed a systematic search within the archives of six major US and UK tobacco companies (American Tobacco, Philip Morris, RJ Reynolds, Lorillard, Brown & Williamson and British American Tobacco) that were Defendants in tobacco litigation settled in 1998. Findings are dated from 1949 to 1999. RESULTS: The documents revealed the strategies planned and used by the industry to enhance effects of smoking on weight and appetite, mostly by chemical modifications of cigarettes contents. Appetite-suppressant molecules, such as tartaric acid and 2-acetylpyridine were added to some cigarettes. CONCLUSION: These tobacco companies played an active and not disclaimed role in the anti-appetite effects of smoking, at least in the past, by adding appetite-suppressant molecules into their cigarettes.

The tobacco industry's past role in weight control related to smoking

Résumé (français)ContexteLe tabagisme est connu pour produire un effet coupe-faim chez la plupart des fumeurs. La crainte de la prise de poids à l'arrêt de la cigarette l'emporte souvent sur la perception des bénéfices sur la santé associés à l'abandon du tabac, particulièrement chez les adolescents. Nous avons examiné quel a été le rôle de l'industrie du tabac dans cet effet de la fumée sur l'appétit et sur le contrôle du poids.MéthodesNous avons réalisé une recherche systématique dans les archives de six grandes compagnies de tabac américaines et du Royaume-Uni (American Tobacco, Philip Morris, RJ Reynolds, Lorillard, Brown & Williamson et British American Tobacco) qui avaient été mises en cause dans les procès du tabac en 1998 aux Etats-Unis. Les résultats concernent les années 1949 à 1999.RésultatsLes archives de ces industries montrent qu'elles ont mis au point et ont utilisé diverses stratégies pour améliorer les effets du tabagisme sur le poids et l'appétit, la plupart du temps en réalisant des modifications chimiques des cigarettes. Des substances coupe-faim, telles que l'acide tartrique et le 2-acétylpyridine ont notamment été ajoutées aux cigarettes.ConclusionEn tout cas par le passé, ces compagnies de tabac ont activement modifié leurs cigarettes afin d'en augmenter l'effet de diminution de l'appétit, notamment en y ajoutant des substances coupe-faim.

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.