Les coûts des dommages éléments naturels aux bâtiments et l'influence des facteurs du risque dans un contexte d'assurance immobilière : analyse de cas des innondations et de la grêle en Suisse

In Switzerland, the annual cost of damage by natural elements has been increasing for several years despite the introduction of protective measures. Mainly induced by material destruction building insurance companies have to pay the majority of this cost. In many European countries, governments and insurance companies consider prevention strategies to reduce vulnerability. In Switzerland, since 2004, the cost of damage due to natural hazards has surpassed the cost of damage due to fire; a traditional activity of the Cantonal Insurance company (EGA). Therefore, the strategy for efficient fire prevention incorporates a reduction of the vulnerability of buildings. The thesis seeks to illustrate the relevance of such an approach when applied to the damage caused by natural hazards. It examines the role of insurance place and its involvement in targeted prevention of natural disasters. Integrated risk management involves a faultless comprehension of all risk parameters The first part of the thesis is devoted to the theoretical development of the key concepts that influence risk management, such as: hazard, vulnerability, exposure or damage. The literature on this subject, very prolific in recent years, was taken into account and put in perspective in the context of this study. Among the risk parameters, it is shown in the thesis that vulnerability is a factor that we can influence efficiently in order to limit the cost of damage to buildings. This is confirmed through the development of an analysis method. This method has led to the development of a tool to assess damage to buildings by flooding. The tool, designed for the property insurer or owner, proposes several steps, namely: - Vulnerability and damage potential assessment; - Proposals for remedial measures and risk reduction from an analysis of the costs of a potential flood; - Adaptation of a global strategy in high-risk areas based on the elements at risk. The final part of the thesis is devoted to the study of a hail event in order to provide a better understanding of damage to buildings. For this, two samples from the available claims data were selected and analysed in the study. The results allow the identification of new trends A second objective of the study was to develop a hail model based on the available data The model simulates a random distribution of intensities and coupled with a risk model, proposes a simulation of damage costs for the determined study area. Le coût annuel des dommages provoqués par les éléments naturels en Suisse est conséquent et sa tendance est en augmentation depuis plusieurs années, malgré la mise en place d'ouvrages de protection et la mise en oeuvre de moyens importants. Majoritairement induit par des dégâts matériels, le coût est supporté en partie par les assurances immobilières en ce qui concerne les dommages aux bâtiments. Dans de nombreux pays européens, les gouvernements et les compagnies d'assurance se sont mis à concevoir leur stratégie de prévention en termes de réduction de la vulnérabilité. Depuis 2004, en Suisse, ce coût a dépassé celui des dommages dus à l'incendie, activité traditionnelle des établissements cantonaux d'assurance (ECA). Ce fait, aux implications stratégiques nombreuses dans le domaine public de la gestion des risques, résulte en particulier d'une politique de prévention des incendies menée efficacement depuis plusieurs années, notamment par le biais de la diminution de la vulnérabilité des bâtiments. La thèse, par la mise en valeur de données actuarielles ainsi que par le développement d'outils d'analyse, cherche à illustrer la pertinence d'une telle approche appliquée aux dommages induits par les phénomènes naturels. Elle s'interroge sur la place de l'assurance et son implication dans une prévention ciblée des catastrophes naturelles. La gestion intégrale des risques passe par une juste maîtrise de ses paramètres et de leur compréhension. La première partie de la thèse est ainsi consacrée au développement théorique des concepts clés ayant une influence sur la gestion des risques, comme l'aléa, la vulnérabilité, l'exposition ou le dommage. La littérature à ce sujet, très prolifique ces dernières années, a été repnse et mise en perspective dans le contexte de l'étude, à savoir l'assurance immobilière. Parmi les paramètres du risque, il est démontré dans la thèse que la vulnérabilité est un facteur sur lequel il est possible d'influer de manière efficace dans le but de limiter les coûts des dommages aux bâtiments. Ce raisonnement est confirmé dans un premier temps dans le cadre de l'élaboration d'une méthode d'analyse ayant débouché sur le développement d'un outil d'estimation des dommages aux bâtiments dus aux inondations. L'outil, destiné aux assurances immobilières, et le cas échéant aux propriétaires, offre plusieurs étapes, à savoir : - l'analyse de la vulnérabilité et le potentiel de dommages ; - des propositions de mesures de remédiation et de réduction du risque issues d'une analyse des coûts engendrés par une inondation potentielle; - l'adaptation d'une stratégie globale dans les zones à risque en fonction des éléments à risque. La dernière partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude d'un événement de grêle dans le but de fournir une meilleure compréhension des dommages aux bâtiments et de leur structure. Pour cela, deux échantillons ont été sélectionnés et analysés parmi les données de sinistres à disposition de l'étude. Les résultats obtenus, tant au niveau du portefeuille assuré que de l'analyse individuelle, permettent de dégager des tendances nouvelles. Un deuxième objectif de l'étude a consisté à élaborer une modélisation d'événements de grêle basée sur les données à disposition. Le modèle permet de simuler une distribution aléatoire des intensités et, couplé à un modèle d'estimation des risques, offre une simulation des coûts de dommages envisagés pour une zone d'étude déterminée. Les perspectives de ce travail permettent une meilleure focalisation du rôle de l'assurance et de ses besoins en matière de prévention.

Pulmonary artery rupture during Swan-Ganz catheterisation: a case report

Catheter-induced pulmonary artery rupture is an infrequent complication that may occur during invasive cardiopulmonary monitoring. Fatal cases are uncommon and result from hemoptysis and flooding of the opposite lung with resulting hypoyxia. Alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency is a rare genetic disorder characterised by low serum levels of alpha-1-antitrypsin, critical in maintaining connective tissue integrity. Besides pulmonary emphysema, recent observations suggest that alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency may also be involved in vascular wall weakening, thereby predisposing arteries to dissection and aneurysm formation. In this article, we describe an autopsy case of pulmonary artery iatrogenic rupture due to insertion of a Swan-Ganz catheter in an 82-year-old woman suffering from pulmonary hypertension and alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency. The exact source of bleeding could not be precisely identified during autopsy due to the extent of tissue hemorrhage, though postmortem angiography revealed a contrast medium extravasation from a branch of the left pulmonary lower lobar artery. The case herein emphasises the importance of postmortem angiography in facilitating the detection of vascular injuries, the importance of familiarity with intensive care techniques and procedures on behalf of forensic pathologists as well as in-depth knowledge of all possible contributing conditions and predisposing disorders in the pathogenesis of death.

Cenomanian (early Late Cretaceous) ammonoid faunas of Western Europe - Part II: Diversity patterns and the end-Cenomanian anoxic event

Diversity patterns of ammonoids are analyzed and compared with the timing of anoxic deposits around the Cenomanian/Turonian (C/T) boundary in the Vocontian, Anglo-Paris, and Monster basins of Western Europe. Differing from most previous studies, which concentrate on a narrow time span bracketing the C/T boundary, the present analysis covers the latest Albian to Early Turonian interval for which a high resolution, ammonoid-based biochronology, including 34 Unitary Associations zones, is now available. During the latest Albian-Middle Cenomanian interval, species richness of ammonoids reveals a dynamical equilibrium oscillating around an average of 20 species, whereas the Late Cenomanian-Early Turonian interval displays an equilibrium centered on an average value of 6 species. The abrupt transition between these two successive equilibria lasted no longer than two Unitary Associations. The onset of the decline of species richness thus largely predates the spread of oxygen-poor water masses onto the shelves, while minimal values of species richness coincide with the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary only. The decline of species richness during the entire Late Cenomanian seems to result from lower origination percentages rather than from higher extinction percentages. This result is also supported by the absence of statistically significant changes in the extinction probabilities of the poly-cohorts. Separate analyses of species richness for acanthoceratids and heteromorphs, the two essential components of the Cenomanian ammonoid community, reveal that heteromorphs declined sooner than acanthoceratids. Moreover, acanthoceratids showed a later decline at the genus level than at the species level. Such a decoupling is accompanied by a significant increase in morphological disparity of acanthoceratids, which is expressed by the appearance of new genera. Last, during the Late Cenomanian, paedomorphic processes, juvenile innovations and reductions of adult size dominated the evolutionary radiation of acanthoceratids. Hence, the decrease in ammonoid species richness and their major evolutionary changes significantly predates the spread of anoxic deposits. Other environmental constraints such as global flooding of platforms, warmer and more equable climate, as well as productivity changes better correlate with the timing of diversity changes and evolutionary patterns of ammonoids and therefore, provide more likely causative mechanisms than anoxia alone.

New insights in the pathogenesis of high-altitude pulmonary edema.

High-altitude pulmonary edema is a life-threatening condition occurring in predisposed but otherwise healthy individuals. It therefore permits the study of underlying mechanisms of pulmonary edema in the absence of confounding factors such as coexisting cardiovascular or pulmonary disease, and/or drug therapy. There is evidence that some degree of asymptomatic alveolar fluid accumulation may represent a normal phenomenon in healthy humans shortly after arrival at high altitude. Two fundamental mechanisms then determine whether this fluid accumulation is cleared or whether it progresses to HAPE: the quantity of liquid escaping from the pulmonary vasculature and the rate of its clearance by the alveolar respiratory epithelium. The former is directly related to the degree of hypoxia-induced pulmonary hypertension, whereas the latter is determined by the alveolar epithelial sodium transport. Here, we will review evidence that, in HAPE-prone subjects, impaired pulmonary endothelial and epithelial NO synthesis and/or bioavailability may represent a central underlying defect predisposing to exaggerated hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction and, in turn, capillary stress failure and alveolar fluid flooding. We will then demonstrate that exaggerated pulmonary hypertension, although possibly a conditio sine qua non, may not always be sufficient to induce HAPE and how defective alveolar fluid clearance may represent a second important pathogenic mechanism.

The lower Triassic anachronistic carbonate facies in space and time

The end-Permian mass extinction greatly affected the sedimentary record, but the sedimentary response was not limited to the Permian-Triassic boundary interval. This transformation extended to sedimentation that spanned the entire Early Triassic. Calcimicrobialites play an important role throughout this time interval, and at least four main events of anomalous carbonate deposition can be shown. A post-extinction calcimicrobial unit occurs above the extensive Permian skeletal carbonate platform exposed in the Taurus Mountains (southern Turkey), in south Armenia, north-west north and Central Iran along the Zagros Mountains. The calcimicrobial unit formed during the flooding of the platform that took place during the earliest Triassic. A similar calcimicrobialite formed during late Griesbachian to Dienerian time atop the shallow Permian skeletal carbonate platform largely exposed in south China. A third event occurred during the Early Olenekian on the first Mesozoic isolated pelagic plateau (Baid seamount, Oman Mountains). Here the change in carbonate sedimentation is reflected in the occurrence of thrombolites and carbonate seafloor fans. Near the end of Early Triassic time, unusual carbonate deposition is recorded both on an isolated pelagic plateau of the Western Tethys (Halstatt limestone of Dobrogea, Romania) and on the eastern Panthalassa margin of the western United States. In the western United States, the event is represented by stromatolites and thrombolites in the Virgin Limestone of the Moenkopi Formation and by seafloor fans in the middle and upper members of the Union Wash Formation. These unusual episodes of anomalous carbonate deposition illustrate a fundamental change in sedimentation that occurred in the aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction.

3D crosshole ERT for aquifer characterization and monitoring of infiltrating river water

The hydrogeological properties and responses of a productive aquifer in northeastern Switzerland are investigated. For this purpose, 3D crosshole electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is used to define the main lithological structures within the aquifer (through static inversion) and to monitor the water infiltration from an adjacent river. During precipitation events and subsequent river flooding, the river water resistivity increases. As a consequence, the electrical characteristics of the infiltrating water can be used as a natural tracer to delineate preferential flow paths and flow velocities. The focus is primarily on the experiment installation, data collection strategy, and the structural characterization of the site and a brief overview of the ERT monitoring results. The monitoring system comprises 18 boreholes each equipped with 10 electrodes straddling the entire thickness of the gravel aquifer. A multi-channel resistivity system programmed to cycle through various four-point electrode configurations of the 180 electrodes in a rolling sequence allows for the measurement of approximately 15,500 apparent resistivity values every 7 h on a continuous basis. The 3D static ERT inversion of data acquired under stable hydrological conditions provides a base model for future time-lapse inversion studies and the means to investigate the resolving capability of our acquisition scheme. In particular, it enables definition of the main lithological structures within the aquifer. The final ERT static model delineates a relatively high-resistivity, low-porosity, intermediate-depth layer throughout the investigated aquifer volume that is consistent with results from well logging and seismic and radar tomography models. The next step will be to define and implement an appropriate time-lapse ERT inversion scheme using the river water as a natural tracer. The main challenge will be to separate the superposed time-varying effects of water table height, temperature, and salinity variations associated with the infiltrating water.

Growth and demise of Permian biogenic chert along northwest Pangea: evidence for end-Permian collapse of thermohaline circulation

The Permian Chert Event (PCE) was a 30 Ma long episode of unusual chert accumulation along the northwest margin of Pangea, and possibly worldwide. The onset of the PCE occurred at about the Sakmarian-Artinskian boundary in the Sverdrup Basin, Canadian Arctic, where it coincides with a maximum flooding event, the ending of high-frequency/high-amplitude shelf cyclicity, the onset of massive biogenic chert deposition in deep-water distal areas, and a long-term shift from warm- to cool-water carbonate sedimentation in shallow-water proximal areas. A similar and coeval shift is observed from the Barents Sea to the northwestern USA. A landward and southward expansion of silica factories occurred during the Middle and Late Permian at which time warm-water carbonate producers disappeared completely from the northwest margin of Pangea. Biotically impoverished and increasingly narrow cold-water carbonate factories (characterised by non-cemented bioclasts of sponges, bryozoans, echinoderms and brachiopods) were then progressively replaced by silica factories. By Late Permian time, little carbonate sediments accumulated in the Barents Sea and in the Sverdrup Basin. where the deep- to shallow-water sedimentary spectrum was occupied by siliceous sponge spicules. By that time, biogenic silica sedimentation was common throughout the world. Silica factories collapsed in the Late Permian, abruptly bringing the PCE to an end. In northwest Pangea, the end- Permian collapse of the PCE was associated with a major transgression and with a return to much warmer oceanic and continental climatic conditions. Chert deposition resumed in the distal oceanic areas during the early Middle Triassic (Anisian) after a 8-10 Ma interruption (Early Triassic Chert Gap). The conditions necessary for the onset, expansion and zenith of the PCE were provided by the thermohaline circulation of nutrient-rich cold waters along the northwestern and western margin of Pangea, and possibly throughout the world oceans. These conditions provided an efficient transportation mechanism that constantly replenished the supply of silica in the area, created a nutrient- and oxygen-rich environment favouring siliceous biogenic productivity. established cold sea-floor conditions, hindering silica dissolution, while increasing calcium carbonate solubility, and provided conditions adverse to organic and inorganic carbonate production, The northwest margin of Pangea was, for nearly 30 Ma. bathed by cold waters presumably derived from the seasonal melting of northern sea ice, the assumed engine for thermohaline circulation. This process started near the Sakmarian-Artinskian boundary. intensified throughout Middle and Late Permian time and ceased suddenly in latest Permian time, It led to oceanic conditions much colder than normally expected from the palaeolatitudes. and the influence of cold northerly-derived water was felt as far south southern Nevada. The demise of silica factories was caused by the rapid breakdown of these conditions and the establishment of a much warmer marine environment accompanied by sluggish circulation and perhaps a reduced input of dissolved silica to the ocean. Complete thawing of northern sea ice would have ended thermohaline circulation and led to warm and sluggish oceanic conditions inimical to the production. accumulation and preservation of biogenic silica.

Learning through Computer Model Improvisations

It has been convincingly argued that computer simulation modeling differs from traditional science. If we understand simulation modeling as a new way of doing science, the manner in which scientists learn about the world through models must also be considered differently. This article examines how researchers learn about environmental processes through computer simulation modeling. Suggesting a conceptual framework anchored in a performative philosophical approach, we examine two modeling projects undertaken by research teams in England, both aiming to inform flood risk management. One of the modeling teams operated in the research wing of a consultancy firm, the other were university scientists taking part in an interdisciplinary project experimenting with public engagement. We found that in the first context the use of standardized software was critical to the process of improvisation, the obstacles emerging in the process concerned data and were resolved through exploiting affordances for generating, organizing, and combining scientific information in new ways. In the second context, an environmental competency group, obstacles were related to the computer program and affordances emerged in the combination of experience-based knowledge with the scientists' skill enabling a reconfiguration of the mathematical structure of the model, allowing the group to learn about local flooding.

Evolution of the Helvetic shelf (Switzerland) during the Barremian-early Aptian : paleoenvironmental, paleogeographic and paleoceanographic controlling factors

The Early Cretaceous has experienced the development of large shallow-water carbonate platform in tropical and subtropical regions, favoured by exceptionally warm climatic conditions, optimal trophic conditions and a suitable tectonic and paleogeographic context. This period was also characterized by shorter intervals, in which the widespread deposition of marine sediments enriched in organic matter occurred ("oceanic anoxic episodes": OAE). This study focuses on the Barremian- Aptian interval, during which the Urgonian platform developed throughout the northern Tethyan passive margin. Due to the Alpine orogeny, sediments belonging to this platform - named locally Schrattenkalk Formation, are presently outcropping in the Helvetic Alps. This study aims to reconstruct the paleogeographic evolution of the Helvetic platform, and to define the environmental and oceanographic factors, which influenced its development. Several key episodes in the life of this platform have been identified: - The installation of the platform, covering hemipelagic sediments of the Drusberg Member, near the limit between the early and late Barremian. - The temporary change of carbonate production type during the basal Aptian, with the deposition of the Rawil Member. - And finally the definitive interruption of photozoan carbonate platform sedimentation in the study area, during the early Aptian. The sedimentological, biostratigraphical and chemostratigraphic (8I3C) data lead to the sequential subdivision of eleven sections and one core, located throughout the different Helvetic nappes of Switzerland. The sequence stratigraphie framework, initially defined for the Urgonian carbonate platform of the Vercors area (SE France), is confirmed in the Helvetic nappes, where the same number of sequences was observed. Many similarities between these two areas are put forward in this work. The sequence stratigraphie framework helped to highlight the installation of a bioclastic body, included in the Schrattenkalk Formation, since the middle Early Barremian (sequence B2). The age of the installation of the rudist-rich limestone, which corresponds to the Urgonian facies sensu stricto, is attributed to the late Barremian (maximum flooding surface of the sequence B3). This age coincides with the one determined in other northern Tethyan areas for the installation of the Urgonian platform. The results of this study show a strong tectonic control of the platform architecture, with the presence of syn-sedimentary faults in a perpendicular position to the progradation direction of the platform. The presence of these faults was highlighted by the study of the evolution of the microfacies distribution and by thickness variations in different areas. Sea level fluctuations also played an important role in the various life phases of the platform. Three major falls in sea level have been identified. A significant emersion of the proximal domain has been observed, involving an important drop of the relative sea level, leading to the exposure of the Drusberg Member hemipelagic series. A second major drop in sea level is identified near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, and a third is registered on the top of the Upper Schrattenkalk Member on the whole platform; it is associated with a karst affecting the underlying limestones to a depth of over 20 meters. This observation sheds new light on the conditions linked to the demise of Urgonian platform, which was strongly influenced by this phase of emersion.