The development of decision limits for the GH-2000 detection methodology using additional insulin-like growth factor-I and amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen assays.

The GH-2000 and GH-2004 projects have developed a method for detecting GH misuse based on measuring insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and the amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen (P-III-NP). The objectives were to analyze more samples from elite athletes to improve the reliability of the decision limit estimates, to evaluate whether the existing decision limits needed revision, and to validate further non-radioisotopic assays for these markers. The study included 998 male and 931 female elite athletes. Blood samples were collected according to World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) guidelines at various sporting events including the 2011 International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) World Athletics Championships in Daegu, South Korea. IGF-I was measured by the Immunotech A15729 IGF-I IRMA, the Immunodiagnostic Systems iSYS IGF-I assay and a recently developed mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method. P-III-NP was measured by the Cisbio RIA-gnost P-III-P, Orion UniQ? PIIINP RIA and Siemens ADVIA Centaur P-III-NP assays. The GH-2000 score decision limits were developed using existing statistical techniques. Decision limits were determined using a specificity of 99.99% and an allowance for uncertainty because of the finite sample size. The revised Immunotech IGF-I - Orion P-III-NP assay combination decision limit did not change significantly following the addition of the new samples. The new decision limits are applied to currently available non-radioisotopic assays to measure IGF-I and P-III-NP in elite athletes, which should allow wider flexibility to implement the GH-2000 marker test for GH misuse while providing some resilience against manufacturer withdrawal or change of assays. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

European collaborative study of early-onset bipolar disorder: Evidence for genetic heterogeneity on 2q14 according to age at onset.

Bipolar disorder has a genetic component, but the mode of inheritance remains unclear. A previous genome scan conducted in 70 European families led to detect eight regions linked to bipolar disease. Here, we present an investigation of whether the phenotypic heterogeneity of the disorder corresponds to genetic heterogeneity in these regions using additional markers and an extended sample of families. The MLS statistic was used for linkage analyses. The predivided sample test and the maximum likelihood binomial methods were used to test genetic homogeneity between early-onset bipolar type I (cut-off of 22 years) and other types of the disorder (later onset of bipolar type I and early-onset bipolar type II), using a total of 138 independent bipolar-affected sib-pairs. Analysis of the extended sample of families supports linkage in four regions (2q14, 3p14, 16p23, and 20p12) of the eight regions of linkage suggested by our previous genome scan. Heterogeneity testing revealed genetic heterogeneity between early and late-onset bipolar type I in the 2q14 region (P = 0.0001). Only the early form of the bipolar disorder but not the late form appeared to be linked to this region. This region may therefore include a genetic factor either specifically involved in the early-onset bipolar type I or only influencing the age at onset (AAO). Our findings illustrate that stratification according to AAO may be valuable for the identification of genetic vulnerability polymorphisms.

Adaptively weighted maximum likelihood estimation of discrete distributions

SummaryDiscrete data arise in various research fields, typically when the observations are count data.I propose a robust and efficient parametric procedure for estimation of discrete distributions. The estimation is done in two phases. First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed and used to indentify outliers. Then the outliers are either removed from the sample or given low weights, and a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WML) is computed.The weights are determined via an adaptive process such that if the data follow the model, then asymptotically no observation is downweighted.I prove that the final estimator inherits the breakdown point of the initial one, and that its influence function at the model is the same as the influence function of the maximum likelihood estimator, which strongly suggests that it is asymptotically fully efficient.The initial estimator is a minimum disparity estimator (MDE). MDEs can be shown to have full asymptotic efficiency, and some MDEs have very high breakdown points and very low bias under contamination. Several initial estimators are considered, and the performances of the WMLs based on each of them are studied.It results that in a great variety of situations the WML substantially improves the initial estimator, both in terms of finite sample mean square error and in terms of bias under contamination. Besides, the performances of the WML are rather stable under a change of the MDE even if the MDEs have very different behaviors.Two examples of application of the WML to real data are considered. In both of them, the necessity for a robust estimator is clear: the maximum likelihood estimator is badly corrupted by the presence of a few outliers.This procedure is particularly natural in the discrete distribution setting, but could be extended to the continuous case, for which a possible procedure is sketched.RésuméLes données discrètes sont présentes dans différents domaines de recherche, en particulier lorsque les observations sont des comptages.Je propose une méthode paramétrique robuste et efficace pour l'estimation de distributions discrètes. L'estimation est faite en deux phases. Tout d'abord, un estimateur très robuste des paramètres du modèle est calculé, et utilisé pour la détection des données aberrantes (outliers). Cet estimateur n'est pas nécessairement efficace. Ensuite, soit les outliers sont retirés de l'échantillon, soit des faibles poids leur sont attribués, et un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance pondéré (WML) est calculé.Les poids sont déterminés via un processus adaptif, tel qu'asymptotiquement, si les données suivent le modèle, aucune observation n'est dépondérée.Je prouve que le point de rupture de l'estimateur final est au moins aussi élevé que celui de l'estimateur initial, et que sa fonction d'influence au modèle est la même que celle du maximum de vraisemblance, ce qui suggère que cet estimateur est pleinement efficace asymptotiquement.L'estimateur initial est un estimateur de disparité minimale (MDE). Les MDE sont asymptotiquement pleinement efficaces, et certains d'entre eux ont un point de rupture très élevé et un très faible biais sous contamination. J'étudie les performances du WML basé sur différents MDEs.Le résultat est que dans une grande variété de situations le WML améliore largement les performances de l'estimateur initial, autant en terme du carré moyen de l'erreur que du biais sous contamination. De plus, les performances du WML restent assez stables lorsqu'on change l'estimateur initial, même si les différents MDEs ont des comportements très différents.Je considère deux exemples d'application du WML à des données réelles, où la nécessité d'un estimateur robuste est manifeste : l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance est fortement corrompu par la présence de quelques outliers.La méthode proposée est particulièrement naturelle dans le cadre des distributions discrètes, mais pourrait être étendue au cas continu.

Cytogenetic response to imatinib in chronic myeloid leukaemia patients: concentration dependency and associated influences under field-conditions

Introduction: Imatinib, a first-line drug for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), has been increasingly proposed for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as trough concentrations >=1000 ng/ml (Cmin) have been associated with improved molecular and complete cytogenetic response (CCyR). The pharmacological monitoring project of EUTOS (European Treatment and Outcome Study) was launched to validate retrospectively the correlation between Cmin and response in a large population of patients followed by central TDM in Bordeaux.¦Methods: 1898 CML patients with first TDM 0-9 years after imatinib initiation, providing cytogenetic data along with demographic and comedication (37%) information, were included. Individual Cmin, estimated by non-linear regression (NONMEM), was adjusted to initial standard dose (400 mg/day) and stratified at 1000 ng/ml. Kaplan-Meier estimates of overall cumulative CCyR rates (stratified by sex, age, comedication and Cmin) were compared using asymptotic logrank k-sample test for interval-censored data. Differences in Cmin were assessed by Wilcoxon test.¦Results: There were no significant differences in overall cumulative CCyR rates between Cmin strata, sex and comedication with P-glycoprotein inhibitors/inducers or CYP3A4 inhibitors (p >0.05). Lower rates were observed in 113 young patients <30 years (p = 0.037; 1-year rates: 43% vs 60% in older patients), as well as in 29 patients with CYP3A4 inducers (p = 0.001, 1-year rates: 40% vs 66% without). Higher rates were observed in 108 patients on organic-cation-transporter-1 (hOCT-1) inhibitors (p = 0.034, 1-year rates: 83% vs 56% without). Considering 1-year CCyR rates, a trend towards better response for Cmin above 1000 ng/ml was observed: 64% (95%CI: 60-69%) vs 59% (95%CI: 56-61%). Median Cmin (400 mg/day) was significantly reduced in male patients (732 vs 899ng/ml, p <0.001), young patients <30 years (734 vs 802 ng/ml, p = 0.037) and under CYP3A4 inducers (758 vs 859 ng/ml, p = 0.022). Under hOCT-1 inhibitors, Cmin was increased (939 vs 827 ng/ml, p = 0.038).¦Conclusion: Based on observational TDM data, the impact of imatinib Cmin >1000 ng/ml on CCyR was not salient. Young CML patients (<30 years) and patients taking CYP3A4 inducers probably need close monitoring and possibly higher imatinib doses, due to lower Cmin along with lower CCyR rates. Patients taking hOCT-1 inhibitors seem in contrast to have improved CCyR response rates. The precise role for imatinib TDM remains to be established prospectively.

Robust response transformations based on optimal prediction

Nonlinear regression problems can often be reduced to linearity by transforming the response variable (e.g., using the Box-Cox family of transformations). The classic estimates of the parameter defining the transformation as well as of the regression coefficients are based on the maximum likelihood criterion, assuming homoscedastic normal errors for the transformed response. These estimates are nonrobust in the presence of outliers and can be inconsistent when the errors are nonnormal or heteroscedastic. This article proposes new robust estimates that are consistent and asymptotically normal for any unimodal and homoscedastic error distribution. For this purpose, a robust version of conditional expectation is introduced for which the prediction mean squared error is replaced with an M scale. This concept is then used to develop a nonparametric criterion to estimate the transformation parameter as well as the regression coefficients. A finite sample estimate of this criterion based on a robust version of smearing is also proposed. Monte Carlo experiments show that the new estimates compare favorably with respect to the available competitors.

Partial cricotracheal resection for congenital subglottic stenosis in children: the effect of concomitant anomalies.

OBJECTIVE: To review the surgical outcomes of partial cricotracheal resection in children with severe congenital subglottic stenosis and define the effect of concomitant anomalies or syndromes affecting outcome. METHODS: Forty-one children with subglottic stenosis of congenital and mixed (acquired on congenital) etiologies who underwent partial cricotracheal resection were identified from a prospectively collected database. Children with congenital subglottic stenosis and concomitant anomalies/syndromes were compared to children with congenital subglottic stenosis with no syndromes or concomitant anomalies. Operation-specific decannulation rates and complication rates were the primary outcome measures. We performed a two-sample test of proportion using the STATA-10 software for categorical variables to detect differences in proportions. Significance was set at p value<0.05. RESULTS: Twenty-seven (66%) of 41 children had concomitant anomalies/syndromes and 14 (34%) had congenital subglottic stenosis without concomitant anomalies/syndromes. Four patients needed revision surgery in the concomitant anomaly group and two patients needed revision surgery in the non concomitant anomaly group before achieving decannulation. The operation-specific decannulation rate in the concomitant anomaly group was 85% and 86% in the non anomaly group. When compared to children without concomitant anomaly, children with concomitant anomalies were more likely to have delayed decannulation following partial cricotracheal resection. However, this difference was not found to be statistically significant. The complication and operation-specific decannulation rates after partial cricotracheal resection were comparable to children without concomitant anomalies. Mortality rate was 11% (three of 27 patients) in the group with associated congenital anomalies or syndromes. Two patients succumbed to the primary pathology and one patient died due to tracheostomy-tube obstruction. There was no post-operative death in the non anomaly group. CONCLUSION: Partial cricotracheal resection can be done safely and effectively in children with concomitant anomalies/syndromes to achieve decannulation. The post-operative course may be prolonged but the decannulation and the complication rates are comparable to those children with congenital subglottic stenosis without concomitant anomalies.

Robust Estimates of the Negative Binomial Model

We consider robust parametric procedures for univariate discrete distributions, focusing on the negative binomial model. The procedures are based on three steps: ?First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed. ?Second, this initial model is used to identify outliers, which are then removed from the sample. ?Third, a corrected maximum likelihood estimator is computed with the remaining observations. The final estimate inherits the breakdown point (bdp) of the initial one and its efficiency can be significantly higher. Analogous procedures were proposed in [1], [2], [5] for the continuous case. A comparison of the asymptotic bias of various estimates under point contamination points out the minimum Neyman's chi-squared disparity estimate as a good choice for the initial step. Various minimum disparity estimators were explored by Lindsay [4], who showed that the minimum Neyman's chi-squared estimate has a 50% bdp under point contamination; in addition, it is asymptotically fully efficient at the model. However, the finite sample efficiency of this estimate under the uncontaminated negative binomial model is usually much lower than 100% and the bias can be strong. We show that its performance can then be greatly improved using the three step procedure outlined above. In addition, we compare the final estimate with the procedure described in

Swain: Stata module to correct the SEM chi-square overidentification test in small sample sizes or complex models. Statistical Software Components S457617, Boston College Department of Economics.

Swain corrects the chi-square overidentification test (i.e., likelihood ratio test of fit) for structural equation models whethr with or without latent variables. The chi-square statistic is asymptotically correct; however, it does not behave as expected in small samples and/or when the model is complex (cf. Herzog, Boomsma, & Reinecke, 2007). Thus, particularly in situations where the ratio of sample size (n) to the number of parameters estimated (p) is relatively small (i.e., the p to n ratio is large), the chi-square test will tend to overreject correctly specified models. To obtain a closer approximation to the distribution of the chi-square statistic, Swain (1975) developed a correction; this scaling factor, which converges to 1 asymptotically, is multiplied with the chi-square statistic. The correction better approximates the chi-square distribution resulting in more appropriate Type 1 reject error rates (see Herzog & Boomsma, 2009; Herzog, et al., 2007).

How to screen for problematic cannabis use in population surveys: an evaluation of the Cannabis Use Disorders Identification Test (CUDIT) in a Swiss sample of adolescents and young adults.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Cannabis use is a growing challenge for public health, calling for adequate instruments to identify problematic consumption patterns. The Cannabis Use Disorders Identification Test (CUDIT) is a 10-item questionnaire used for screening cannabis abuse and dependency. The present study evaluated that screening instrument. METHODS: In a representative population sample of 5,025 Swiss adolescents and young adults, 593 current cannabis users replied to the CUDIT. Internal consistency was examined by means of Cronbach's alpha and confirmatory factor analysis. In addition, the CUDIT was compared to accepted concepts of problematic cannabis use (e.g. using cannabis and driving). ROC analyses were used to test the CUDIT's discriminative ability and to determine an appropriate cut-off. RESULTS: Two items ('injuries' and 'hours being stoned') had loadings below 0.5 on the unidimensional construct and correlated lower than 0.4 with the total CUDIT score. All concepts of problematic cannabis use were related to CUDIT scores. An ideal cut-off between six and eight points was found. CONCLUSIONS: Although the CUDIT seems to be a promising instrument to identify problematic cannabis use, there is a need to revise some of its items.

Diagnostic interview for genetic studies (DIGS): inter-rater and test-retest reliability of the French version.

The National Institute of Mental Health developed the semi-structured Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies (DIGS) for the assessment of major mood and psychotic disorders and their spectrum conditions. The DIGS was translated into French in a collaborative effort of investigators from sites in France and Switzerland. Inter-rater and test-retest reliability of the French version have been established in a clinical sample in Lausanne. Excellent inter-rater reliability was found for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depression, and unipolar schizoaffective disorder while fair inter-rater reliability was demonstrated for bipolar schizoaffective disorder. Using a six-week test-retest interval, reliability for all diagnoses was found to be fair to good with the exception of bipolar schizoaffective disorder. The lower test-retest reliability was the result of a relatively long test-retest interval that favored incomplete symptom recall. In order to increase reliability for lifetime diagnoses in persons not currently affected, best-estimate procedures using additional sources of diagnostic information such as medical records and reports from relatives should supplement DIGS information in family-genetic studies. Within such a procedure, the DIGS appears to be a useful part of data collection for genetic studies on major mood disorders and schizophrenia in French-speaking populations.

Consommation d'alcool à risque dans un collectif de patients de la Policlinique médicale universitaire de Lausanne [High risk alcohol consumption in a sample of patients of the Lausanne University Medical Polyclinic].

OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: This study indicates the prevalence, the characteristics, and the screening methods of patients with at risk alcohol drinking at the University Medical Clinic of Lausanne. RESULTS: The results reported demonstrate that one patient out of six is a drinker at risk without criteria for alcohol-dependance. The questionnaire AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) with a cut-off of five points seems to be the best screening test for at risk alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of at risk drinking in this study, combined with scientific evidence of the efficiency of brief interventions in changing drinking habits, emphasises the importance of alcohol screening for all patients attending outpatient medical settings.

Association between circulating cytokine levels, diabetes and insulin resistance in a population-based sample (CoLaus study).

OBJECTIVE: The associations between inflammation, diabetes and insulin resistance remain controversial. Hence, we assessed the associations between diabetes, insulin resistance (using HOMA-IR) and metabolic syndrome with the inflammatory markers high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand eight hundred and eighty-four men and 3201 women, aged 35-75, participated in this study. METHODS: C-reactive protein was assessed by immunoassay and cytokines by multiplexed flow cytometric assay. In a subgroup of 532 participants, an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed to screen for impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). RESULTS: IL-6, TNF-α and hs-CRP were significantly and positively correlated with fasting plasma glucose (FPG), insulin and HOMA-IR. Participants with diabetes had higher IL-6, TNF-α and hs-CRP levels than participants without diabetes; this difference persisted for hs-CRP after multivariate adjustment. Participants with metabolic syndrome had increased IL-6, TNF-α and hs-CRP levels; these differences persisted after multivariate adjustment. Participants in the highest quartile of HOMA-IR had increased IL-6, TNF-α and hs-CRP levels; these differences persisted for TNF-α and hs-CRP after multivariate adjustment. No association was found between IL-1β levels and all diabetes and insulin resistance markers studied. Finally, participants with IGT had higher hs-CRP levels than participants with a normal OGTT, but this difference disappeared after controlling for body mass index (BMI). CONCLUSION: We found that subjects with diabetes, metabolic syndrome and increased insulin resistance had increased levels of IL6, TNF-α and hs-CRP, while no association was found with IL-1β. The increased inflammatory state of subjects with IGT is partially explained by increased BMI.

Test methods: anabolics.

In the International Olympic Committee (IOC) accredited laboratories, specific methods have been developed to detect anabolic steroids in athletes' urine. The technique of choice to achieve this is gas-chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). In order to improve the efficiency of anti-doping programmes, the laboratories have defined new analytical strategies. The final sensitivity of the analytical procedure can be improved by choosing new technologies for use in detection, such as tandem mass spectrometry (MS-MS) or high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS). A better sample preparation using immuno-affinity chromatography (IAC) is also a good tool for improving sensitivity. These techniques are suitable for the detection of synthetic anabolic steroids whose structure is not found naturally in the human body. The more and more evident use, on a large scale, of substances chemically similar to the endogenous steroids obliges both the laboratory and the sports authorities to use the steroid profile of the athlete in comparison with reference ranges from a population or with intraindividual reference values.

Predictors of HIV-protection behaviour in HIV-positive men who have sex with casual male partners: a test of the explanatory power of an extended Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills model.

This prospective study applies an extended Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills (IMB) model to establish predictors of HIV-protection behaviour among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) during sex with casual partners. Data have been collected from anonymous, self-administered questionnaires and analysed by using descriptive and backward elimination regression analyses. In a sample of 165 HIV-positive MSM, 82 participants between the ages of 23 and 78 (M=46.4, SD=9.0) had sex with casual partners during the three-month period under investigation. About 62% (n=51) have always used a condom when having sex with casual partners. From the original IMB model, only subjective norm predicted condom use. More important predictors that increased condom use were low consumption of psychotropics, high satisfaction with sexuality, numerous changes in sexual behaviour after diagnosis, low social support from friends, alcohol use before sex and habitualised condom use with casual partner(s). The explanatory power of the calculated regression model was 49% (p<0.001). The study reveals the importance of personal and social resources and of routines for condom use, and provides information for the research-based conceptualisation of prevention offers addressing especially people living with HIV ("positive prevention").

Comparison of the clientele of an anonymous HIV test centre and persons tested in the general population.

This study compares the clientele of a Swiss anonymous test centre with the general population tested. Information was obtained through similar questionnaires submitted to two samples of HIV-tested people aged from 17 to 45 years: the first administered in the context of a general population telephone survey (n = 245) and the second completed during face-to-face interviews of the clientele of an anonymous test centre (n = 250). The test centre sample has higher proportions of younger and single people. Attenders for anonymous testing were more likely to have acquired a new regular partner during the year preceding the interview (48.0% versus 14.4%). These differences remain when controlling for age and gender. Decision to test comes mostly from the respondent's own initiative, but suggestion from a doctor is more frequent in the general population (23.8% versus 0.8%), whereas suggestion from partner or friends is more frequent in the anonymous centre (44.4% versus 3.0%). The anonymous test centre clientele is not different from the general population tested except for the relational situation and origin of decision for testing. The test centre has become a place where the general population finds a response to a situation-specific need for HIV testing.