BME-based uncertainty assessment of the Chernobyl fallout

The vast territories that have been radioactively contaminated during the 1986 Chernobyl accident provide a substantial data set of radioactive monitoring data, which can be used for the verification and testing of the different spatial estimation (prediction) methods involved in risk assessment studies. Using the Chernobyl data set for such a purpose is motivated by its heterogeneous spatial structure (the data are characterized by large-scale correlations, short-scale variability, spotty features, etc.). The present work is concerned with the application of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method to estimate the extent and the magnitude of the radioactive soil contamination by 137Cs due to the Chernobyl fallout. The powerful BME method allows rigorous incorporation of a wide variety of knowledge bases into the spatial estimation procedure leading to informative contamination maps. Exact measurements (?hard? data) are combined with secondary information on local uncertainties (treated as ?soft? data) to generate science-based uncertainty assessment of soil contamination estimates at unsampled locations. BME describes uncertainty in terms of the posterior probability distributions generated across space, whereas no assumption about the underlying distribution is made and non-linear estimators are automatically incorporated. Traditional estimation variances based on the assumption of an underlying Gaussian distribution (analogous, e.g., to the kriging variance) can be derived as a special case of the BME uncertainty analysis. The BME estimates obtained using hard and soft data are compared with the BME estimates obtained using only hard data. The comparison involves both the accuracy of the estimation maps using the exact data and the assessment of the associated uncertainty using repeated measurements. Furthermore, a comparison of the spatial estimation accuracy obtained by the two methods was carried out using a validation data set of hard data. Finally, a separate uncertainty analysis was conducted that evaluated the ability of the posterior probabilities to reproduce the distribution of the raw repeated measurements available in certain populated sites. The analysis provides an illustration of the improvement in mapping accuracy obtained by adding soft data to the existing hard data and, in general, demonstrates that the BME method performs well both in terms of estimation accuracy as well as in terms estimation error assessment, which are both useful features for the Chernobyl fallout study.

Long-term and long-range migration of radioactive fallout in a Karst system.

Mountainous areas are often covered by little evolved soils from which deposited radionuclides can potentially leak into the vadose zone. In the Swiss Jura mountains, we observed unusual isotopic ratios of nuclear weapon test (NWTs) fallout with an apparent loss of NWTs plutonium relative to &supl;³⁷Cs of Chernobyl origin in thinner soils. Here, we studied the karstic watershed of a vauclusian spring to determine the residence times of plutonium, ²⁴&supl;Am, and ⁹⁰Sr deposited by global fallout and their respective mobility in carbonaceous soils. The results show that ⁹⁰Sr is washed most efficiently from the watershed with a residence time of several hundred years. The estimated plutonium residence time is more than 10 times higher (in the range of 5000-10,000 years), and the ²⁴&supl;Am residence time is double that of plutonium. The spring water ²⁴&supl;Am/²³⁹+²⁴⁰Pu isotopic ratio is lower (0.12 - 0.28) than found in watershed soils (0.382 ± 0.077). Similar differences are found in aquatic mosses (²⁴&supl;Am/²³⁹+²⁴⁰Pu isotopic ratio 0.05-0.12), which are permanently submerged in spring waters. In contrast to plutonium, ⁹⁰Sr is leached from these mosses with 0.5M HCl, demonstrating that strontium is probably associated with calcium carbonate precipitations on the mosses. The higher plutonium to americium isotopic ratio found in the samples of spring water and mosses at the outlet of the karst shows that plutonium mobility is enhanced.

Plutonium from above-ground nuclear tests in milk teeth: investigation of placental transfer in children born between 1951 and 1995 in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Occupational risks, the present nuclear threat, and the potential danger associated with nuclear power have raised concerns regarding the metabolism of plutonium in pregnant women. OBJECTIVE: We measured plutonium levels in the milk teeth of children born between 1951 and 1995 to assess the potential risk that plutonium incorporated by pregnant women might pose to the radiosensitive tissues of the fetus through placenta transfer. METHODS: We used milk teeth, whose enamel is formed during pregnancy, to investigate the transfer of plutonium from the mother's blood plasma to the fetus. We measured plutonium using sensitive sector field inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry techniques. We compared our results with those of a previous study on strontium-90 ((90)Sr) released into the atmosphere after nuclear bomb tests. RESULTS: Results show that plutonium activity peaks in the milk teeth of children born about 10 years before the highest recorded levels of plutonium fallout. By contrast, (90)Sr, which is known to cross the placenta barrier, manifests differently in milk teeth, in accordance with (90)Sr fallout deposition as a function of time. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that plutonium found in milk teeth is caused by fallout that was inhaled around the time the milk teeth were shed and not from any accumulation during pregnancy through placenta transfer. Thus, plutonium may not represent a radiologic risk for the radiosensitive tissues of the fetus.

Binding of ²³⁹Pu and ⁹⁰Sr to organic colloids in soil solutions: evidence from a field experiment.

Colloidal transport has been shown to enhance the migration of plutonium in groundwater downstream from contaminated sites, but little is known about the adsorption of ⁹⁰Sr and plutonium onto colloids in the soil solution of natural soils. We sampled soil solutions using suction cups, and separated colloids using ultrafiltration to determine the distribution of ²³⁹Pu and ⁹⁰Sr between the truly dissolved fraction and the colloidal fraction of the solutions of three Alpine soils contaminated only by global fallout from the nuclear weapon tests. Plutonium was essentially found in the colloidal fraction (>80%) and probably associated with organic matter. A significant amount of colloidal ⁹⁰Sr was detected in organic-rich soil solutions. Our results suggest that binding to organic colloids in the soil solutions plays a key role with respect to the mobility of plutonium in natural alpine soils and, to a lesser extent, to the mobility of ⁹⁰Sr.

Determining 241Pu in environmental samples: case studies in alpine soils.

A procedure was developed for determining 241Pu activity in environmental samples. This beta emitter isotope of plutonium was measured by ultra low level liquid scintillation, after several separation and purification steps that involved the use of a highly selective extraction chromatographic resin (Eichrom-TEVA). Due to the lack of reference material for 241Pu, the method was nevertheless validated using four IAEA reference sediments with information values for 241Pu. Next, the method was used to determine the 241Pu activity in alpine soils of Switzerland and France. The 241Pu/239,240Pu and 238Pu/239,240Pu activity ratios confirmed that Pu contamination in the tested alpine soils originated mainly from global fallout from nuclear weapon tests conducted in the fifties and sixties. Estimation of the date of the contamination, using the 241Pu/241Am age-dating method, further confirmed this origin. However, the 241Pu/241Am dating method was limited to samples where Pu-Am fractionation was insignificant. If any, the contribution of the Chernobyl accident is negligible.

Reconstruction of metal pollution and recent sedimentation processes in Havana Bay (Cuba): A tool for coastal ecosystem management.

Since 1998 the highly polluted Havana Bay ecosystem has been the subject of a mitigation program. In order to determine whether pollution-reduction strategies were effective, we have evaluated the historical trends of pollution recorded in sediments of the Bay. A sediment core was dated radiometrically using natural and artificial fallout radionuclides. An irregularity in the (210)Pb record was caused by an episode of accelerated sedimentation. This episode was dated to occur in 1982, a year coincident with the heaviest rains reported in Havana over the XX century. Peaks of mass accumulation rates (MAR) were associated with hurricanes and intensive rains. In the past 60 years, these maxima are related to strong El Niño periods, which are known to increase rainfall in the north Caribbean region. We observed a steady increase of pollution (mainly Pb, Zn, Sn, and Hg) since the beginning of the century to the mid 90s, with enrichment factors as high as 6. MAR and pollution decreased rapidly after the mid 90s, although some trace metal levels remain high. This reduction was due to the integrated coastal zone management program introduced in the late 90s, which dismissed catchment erosion and pollution.

Retention half times in the skeleton of plutonium and 90Sr from above-ground nuclear tests: a retrospective study of the Swiss population.

Plutonium and (90)Sr are considered to be among the most radiotoxic nuclides produced by the nuclear fission process. In spite of numerous studies on mammals and humans there is still no general agreement on the retention half time of both radionuclides in the skeleton in the general population. Here we determined plutonium and (90)Sr in human vertebrae in individuals deceased between 1960 and 2004 in Switzerland. Plutonium was measured by sensitive SF-ICP-MS techniques and (90)Sr by radiometric methods. We compared our results to the ones obtained for other environmental compartments to reveal the retention half time of NBT fallout (239)Pu and (90)Sr in trabecular bones of the Swiss population. Results show that plutonium has a retention half time of 40+/-14 years. In contrast (90)Sr has a shorter retention half time of 13.5+/-1.0 years. Moreover (90)Sr retention half time in vertebrae is shown to be linked to the retention half time in food and other environmental compartments. These findings demonstrate that the renewal of the vertebrae through calcium homeostatic control is faster for (90)Sr excretion than for plutonium excretion. The precise determination of the retention half time of plutonium in the skeleton will improve the biokinetic model of plutonium metabolism in humans.

Retention half times in the skeleton of plutonium and Sr-90 from above-ground nuclear tests: A retrospective study of the Swiss population

Plutonium and Sr-90 are considered to be among the most radiotoxic nuclides produced by the nuclear fission process. In spite of numerous studies on mammals and humans there is still no general agreement on the retention half time of both radionuclides in the skeleton in the general population. Here we determined plutonium and Sr-90 in human vertebrae in individuals deceased between 1960 and 2004 in Switzerland. Plutonium was measured by sensitive SF-ICP-MS techniques and Sr-90 by radiometric methods. We compared our results to the ones obtained for other environmental compartments to reveal the retention half time of NBT fallout Pu-239 and Sr-90 in trabecular bones of the Swiss population. Results show that plutonium has a retention half time of 40 +/- 14 years. In contrast Sr-90 has a shorter retention half time of 13.5 +/- 1.0 years. Moreover Sr-90 retention half time in vertebrae is shown to be linked to the retention half time in food and other environmental compartments. These findings demonstrate that the renewal of the vertebrae through calcium homeostatic control is faster for Sr-90 excretion than for plutonium excretion. The precise determination of the retention half time of plutonium in the skeleton will improve the biokinetic model of plutonium metabolism in humans. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous determination of Pu and Am radioisotopes in environmental samples: a tool for determining origin and release date

A radiochemical procedure was developed for the sequential determination of Pu and Am radioisotopes in environmental samples. The radioisotope activities were then used to assess the origin and release date of the environmental plutonium. The radioanalytical procedure is based on the separation of Pu and Am on selective extraction chromatographic resins (Eichrom TEVA and DGA). Alpha sources were prepared by electrodeposition on stainless steel discs, and the alpha emitting radionuclides (238Pu, 239,240Pu and 241Am) were measured by alpha spectrometry. For the determination of the beta emitting 241Pu, the Pu alpha source was leached in hot concentrated nitric acid and the Pu fraction further purified by extraction chromatography on a small column of TEVA resin (100 μg of resin in a pipette tip). 241Pu is then measured by ultra low level liquid scintillation counting. Due to the lack of reference material for 241Pu, the proposed radiochemical method was nevertheless validated using four IAEA reference sediments with information values of 241Pu. The proposed method was then used to determine the 238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Pu and 241Am activity concentrations in alpine soils of France and Switzerland. The soil is the primary receptor of the atmospheric radioactive fallout and, because of the strong binding interaction with soils particles, the isotopes are little fractionated. Therefore, the activity ratios 241Pu/239+240Pu and 238Pu/239,240Pu in soil samples were used to determine the origin (source) and date of the Pu contamination in the investigated alpine sites. The 241Pu/239,240Pu and 238Pu/239,240Pu activity ratios confirmed that the main origin of Pu in the alpine soils was the global fallout from the nuclear bomb tests (NBT) in the fifties and sixties. Furthermore, the 241Pu/241Am activity ratios were used to determine the age of the Pu contamination, which is also an important data for distinguishing the Pu sources. The estimation of the date of the contamination, by the 241Pu/241Am age-dating method, further confirmed the NBT as the Pu source. However, the 241Pu/241Am dating method was limited to samples where Pu-Am fractionation was insignificant. If any, the contribution of the Chernobyl accident in the studied sites is negligible.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Determining Pu-241 in environmental samples: case studies in alpine soils

A procedure was developed for determining Pu-241 activity in environmental samples. This beta emitter isotope of plutonium was measured by ultra low level liquid scintillation, after several separation and purification steps that involved the use of a highly selective extraction chromatographic resin (Eichrom-TEVA). Due to the lack of reference material for Pu-241, the method was nevertheless validated using four IAEA reference sediments with information values for Pu-241. Next, the method was used to determine the Pu-241 activity in alpine soils of Switzerland and France. The Pu-241/Pu-239,Pu-240 and Pu-238/Pu-239,Pu-240 activity ratios confirmed that Pu contamination in the tested alpine soils originated mainly from global fallout from nuclear weapon tests conducted in the fifties and sixties. Estimation of the date of the contamination, using the Pu-241/Am-241 age-dating method, further confirmed this origin. However, the Pu-241/Am-241 dating method was limited to samples where Pu-Am fractionation was insignificant. If any, the contribution of the Chernobyl accident is negligible.

Plutonium and americium isotopes as alternative chronostratigraphic markers in tropical regions: An application in the Havana Bay (Cuba)

The low 137Cs activity observed in marine sediments of tropical regions often precludes its use as chronostratigraphic marker. Here we present a study on the use of Pu and Am radioisotopes as alternative markers to constrain the 210Pb ages in a sediment core of the Havana Bay (Cuba). Mean activity ratios of 238Pu/239,240Pu, 241Am/239,240Pu and 241Pu/239,240Pu indicated that the nuclear weapon tests fallout is the main source of the anthropogenic radionuclides. While the inventory of 137Cs in the sediments is lower than the expected fallout inventory, 239,240Pu accumulates in the sediments with inventories higher than the expected fallout inventory. The high fluxes of 239,240Pu are nevertheless corroborated here through use of 210Pb, and confirm that focusing of solid particles is of great importance in the investigated site. 239,240Pu showed to be a useful time tracer in marine sites where the 137Cs signal is very low.

Historical trends of organochlorine pesticides in a sediment core from the Gulf of Batabanó, Cuba.

Sediments can be natural archives to reconstruct the history of pollutant inputs into coastal areas. This is important to improve management strategies and evaluate the success of pollution control measurements. In this work, the vertical distribution of organochlorine pesticides (DDTs, Lindane, HCB, Heptachlor, Aldrin and Mirex) was determined in a sediment core collected from the Gulf of Batabanó, Cuba, which was dated by using the (210)Pb dating method and validated with the (239,240)Pu fallout peak. Results showed significant changes in sediment accumulation during the last 40 years: recent mass accumulation rates (0.321 g cm(-2) yr(-1)) double those estimated before 1970 (0.15 g cm(-2) yr(-1)). This change matches closely land use change in the region (intense deforestation and regulation of the Colon River in the late 1970s). Among pesticides, only DDTs isomers, Lindane and HCB were detected, and ranged from 0.029 to 0.374 ng g(-1) dw for DDTs, from<0.006 to 0.05 ng g(-1) dw for Lindane and from<0.04 to 0.134 ng g(-1) dw for HCB. Heptachlor, Aldrin and Mirex were below the detection limits (∼0.003 ng g(-1)), indicating that these compounds had a limited application in the Coloma watershed. Pesticide contamination was evident since the 1970s. DDTs and HCB records showed that management strategies, namely the banning the use of organochlorine contaminants, led to a concentration decline. However, Lindane, which was restricted in 1990, can still be found in the watershed. According to NOAA guidelines, pesticides concentrations encountered in these sediments are low and probably not having an adverse effect on sediment dwelling organisms.

La mise en oeuvre et les mutations d'un problème public : les violences faites aux femmes dans le canton de Genève

Violence against women (VAW) has become an issue for public action and a subject of controversy and debate in the public arena. The occurrences of VAW are - at least in part - reported by public authorities and public policies are designed to combat it, by means of prevention campaigns, setting up of shelters or counselling services. All these measures bring together a range of institutional and non-institutional actors. VAW is furthermore the focus of specific laws, but we know little about the emergence of the regulation of VAW in Switzerland. In this article, we will present preliminary results of the developpment of policies adressing domestic violence in the canton of Geneva, focusing on the political arena and analysing the definitional work done by two associations. These case studies show that the concept of gender violence has been marginalized and replaced by a new understanding of the phenomenon of gender violence, which is presented most often in a symmetrical, psychological and racialized way. Les violences faites aux femmes font l'objet de débats et de controverses et sont désormais un problème public qui réunit une pluralité d'acteurs institutionnels et non institutionnels. Outre diverses législations en la matière, de multiples actions et politiques publiques ont été élaborées dans des contextes variés, sous forme de campagnes de prévention, de création de refuges et de centres de conseils. Dans ce contexte, on ne sait que peu de choses de l'émergence de la régulation de ces violences en Suisse et des diverses formes qu'elle a prises. Cet article présente des résultats provisoires concernant la prise en charge des violences domestiques dans le canton de Genève, en se centrant sur la scène politique et en analysant le travail définitionnel effectué par deux associations hégémoniques dans le domaine. Ces études de cas permettent d'affirmer que le concept de violence de genre a été marginalisé et remplacé par une nouvelle compréhension du phénomène, présentée le plus souvent de façon symétrique, psychologique et racialisée.