Frequency and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-infected persons: the Swiss HIV cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Access to antiretroviral therapy may have changed condom use behavior. In January 2008, recommendations on condom use for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons were published in Switzerland, which allowed for unprotected sex under well-defined circumstances ("Swiss statement"). We studied the frequency, changes over time, and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-positive persons. METHODS: Self-reported information on sexual preference, sexual partners, and condom use was collected at semi-annual visits in all participants of the prospective Swiss HIV Cohort Study from April 2007 through March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations to investigate associations between characteristics of cohort participants and condom use. FINDINGS: A total of 7309 participants contributed to 21,978 visits. A total of 4291 persons (80%) reported sexual contacts with stable partners, 1646 (30%) with occasional partners, and 557 (10%) with stable and occasional partners. Of the study participants, 5838 (79.9%) of 7309 were receiving antiretroviral therapy, and of these, 4816 patients (82%) had a suppressed viral load. Condom use varied widely and differed by type of partner (visits with stable partners, 10,368 [80%] of 12,983; visits with occasional partners, 4300 [88%] of 4880) and by serostatus of stable partner (visits with HIV-negative partners, 7105 [89%] of 8174; visits with HIV-positive partners, 1453 [48%] of 2999). Participants were more likely to report unprotected sex with stable partners if they were receiving antiretroviral therapy, if HIV replication was suppressed, and after the publication of the "Swiss statement." Noninjection drug use and moderate or severe alcohol use were associated with unprotected sex. CONCLUSIONS: Antiretroviral treatment and plasma HIV RNA titers influence sexual behavior of HIV-positive persons. Noninjection illicit drug and alcohol use are important risk factors for unprotected sexual contacts.

Do socioeconomic factors shape weight and obesity trajectories over the transition from midlife to old age? Results from the French GAZEL cohort study

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a contemporary epidemic that does not affect all age groups and sections of society equally. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to examine socioeconomic differences in trajectories of body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) and obesity between the ages of 45 and 65 y. DESIGN: A total of 13,297 men and 4532 women from the French GAZEL (Gaz de France Electricité de France) cohort study reported their height in 1990 and their weight annually over the subsequent 18 y. Changes in BMI and obesity between ages 45 and 49 y, 50 and 54 y, 55 and 59 y, and 60 and 65 y as a function of education and occupational position (at age 35 y) were modeled by using linear mixed models and generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: BMI and obesity rates increased between the ages of 45 and 65 y. In men, BMI was higher in unskilled workers than in managers at age 45 y; this difference in BMI increased from 0.82 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.99) at 45 y to 1.06 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.27) at 65 y. Men with a primary school education compared with those with a high school degree at age 45 y had a 0.75 (95% CI: 0.51, 1.00) higher BMI, and this difference increased to 1.32 (95% CI: 1.03,1.62) at age 65 y. Obesity rates were 3.35% and 7.68% at age 45 y and 9.52% and 18.10% at age 65 y in managers and unskilled workers, respectively; the difference in obesity increased by 4.25% (95% CI: 1.87, 6.52). A similar trend was observed in women. Conclusions: Weight continues to increase in the transition between midlife and old age; this increase is greater in lower socioeconomic groups.

Age above 60 years is not a negative predictive factor for combined antiviral therapy with pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin in hepatitis C patients

Background: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral hepatitis C therapy. However, elderly patients often show relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis which is a known negative predictive factor, making it difficult to interpret age as an independent predictive factor. Methods: From the framework of the Swiss hepatitis C cohort (SCCS), we collected data from 545 antiviral hepatitis C therapies, including data from 67 hepatitis C patients ≥ 60 y who had been treated with PEG-interferon and ribavirin. We analyzed host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, depression, earlier hepatitis C treatment), viral factors (genotype, viral load) and treatment course (early virological response, end of treatment response, SVR). Generalised estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling was used for the primary end point (SVR), with age ≥ 60 y and < 60 y as independent variable and gender, presence of cirrhosis, genotype, earlier treatment and viral load as confounders. SVR was analysed in young and elderly patients after matching for these confounders. Additionally, classification tree analysis was done in elderly patients using these confounders. Results: SVR analyzed in 545 patients was 55%. In genotype 1/4, SVR was 42.9% in 259 patients < 60 y and 26.1% in 46 patients ≥ 60 y. In genotype 2/3, SVR was 74.4% in 215 patients < 60 y and 84% in 25 patients ≥ 60 y. However, GEE model showed that age had no influence on achieving SVR (Odds ratio 0.91). Confounders influenced SVR as known from previous studies (cirrhosis, genotype 1/4, previous treatment and viral load >600'000 IE/ml as negative predictive factors). When young and elderly patients were matched (analysis in 59 elderly patients), SVR was not different in these patient groups (54.2% and 55.9%, resp.; p=0.795 in binomial test). The classification tree-derived best criterion for SVR in elderly patients was genotype, with no further criteria relevant for predicting SVR in genotype 2/3. In patients with genotype 1/4, further criteria were presence of cirrhosis and low viral load <600'000 IE/ml in non-cirrhotic patients. Conclusions: Age is not a relevant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when confounders were taken into account. In terms of effectiveness of antiviral therapy, age does not play a major role and should not be regarded as relevant negative predictive factor. Since life expectancy in Switzerland at age 60 is more than 22 y, hepatitis C therapy is reasonable in elderly patients with known relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis, because interferon-based hepatitis C therapy improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Association between white-coat effect and blunted dipping of nocturnal blood pressure.

In this study, we assessed whether the white-coat effect (difference between office and daytime blood pressure (BP)) is associated with nondipping (absence of BP decrease at night). Data were available in 371 individuals of African descent from 74 families selected from a population-based hypertension register in the Seychelles Islands and in 295 Caucasian individuals randomly selected from a population-based study in Switzerland. We used standard multiple linear regression in the Swiss data and generalized estimating equations to account for familial correlations in the Seychelles data. The prevalence of systolic and diastolic nondipping (<10% nocturnal BP decrease) and white-coat hypertension (WCH) was respectively 51, 46, and 4% in blacks and 33, 37, and 7% in whites. When white coat effect and nocturnal dipping were taken as continuous variables (mm Hg), systolic (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) dipping were associated inversely and independently with white-coat effect (P < 0.05) in both populations. Analogously, the difference between office and daytime heart rate was inversely associated with the difference between daytime and night-time heart rate in the two populations. These results did not change after adjustment for potential confounders. The white-coat effect is associated with BP nondipping. The similar associations between office-daytime values and daytime-night-time values for both BP and heart rate suggest that the sympathetic nervous system might play a role. Our findings also further stress the interest, for clinicians, of assessing the presence of a white-coat effect as a means to further identify patients at increased cardiovascular risk and guide treatment accordingly.

Elderly age is not a negative predictive factor for virological response to therapy with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C virus patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C. However, elderly patients often show advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis as known negative predictive factor. The aim of this study was to assess age as an independent predictive factor during antiviral therapy. METHODS: Overall, 516 hepatitis C patients were treated with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin, thereof 66 patients ≥60 years. We analysed the impact of host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, previous hepatitis C treatment) and viral factors (genotype, viral load) on SVR per therapy course by performing a generalized estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling, a matched pair analysis and a classification tree analysis. RESULTS: Overall, SVR per therapy course was 42.9 and 26.1%, respectively, in young and elderly patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes 1/4/6. The corresponding figures for HCV genotypes 2/3 were 74.4 and 84%. In the GEE model, age had no significant influence on achieving SVR. In matched pair analysis, SVR was not different in young and elderly patients (54.2 and 55.9% respectively; P = 0.795 in binominal test). In classification tree analysis, age was not a relevant splitting variable. CONCLUSIONS: Age is not a significant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when relevant confounders are taken into account. As life expectancy in Western Europe at age 60 is more than 20 years, it is reasonable to treat chronic hepatitis C in selected elderly patients with relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis but without major concomitant diseases, as SVR improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

How reliable is an undetectable viral load?

OBJECTIVES: An article by the Swiss AIDS Commission states that patients with stably suppressed viraemia [i.e. several successive HIV-1 RNA plasma concentrations (viral loads, VL) below the limits of detection during 6 months or more of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)] are unlikely to be infectious. Questions then arise: how reliable is the undetectability of the VL, given the history of measures? What factors determine reliability? METHODS: We assessed the probability (henceforth termed reliability) that the n+1 VL would exceed 50 or 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL when the nth one had been <50 copies/mL in 6168 patients of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who were continuing to take HAART between 2003 and 2007. General estimating equations were used to analyse potential factors of reliability. RESULTS: With a cut-off at 50 copies/mL, reliability was 84.5% (n=1), increasing to 94.5% (n=5). Compliance, the current type of HAART and the first antiretroviral therapy (ART) received (HAART or not) were predictive factors of reliability. With a cut-off at 1000 copies/mL, reliability was 97.5% (n=1), increasing to 99.1% (n=4). Chart review revealed that patients had stopped their treatment, admitted to major problems with compliance or were taking non-HAART ART in 72.2% of these cases. Viral escape caused by resistance was found in 5.6%. No explanation was found in the charts of 22.2% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: After several successive VLs at <50 copies/mL, reliability reaches approximately 94% with a cut-off of 50 copies/mL and approximately 99% with a cut-off at 1000 copies/mL. Compliance is the most important factor predicting reliability.

Low adiponectin is associated with increased ambulatory pulse pressure and activation of the renin-angiotensin system in subjects of African descent

Purpose: Adiponectin, arterial stiffness, as well components of the renin-angiotensin system are associated with cardiovascular risk. This study was aimed to investigate whether plasma adiponectin was directly linked with pulse pressure (PP), as a marker for arterial stiffness, and the renin-angiotensin system (RAS). Methods and materials: A family-based study in subjects of African descent enriched with hypertensive patients was carried out in the Seychelles. Fasting plasma adiponectin was determined by ELISA, plasma renin activity according to the antibody-trapping principle and plasma aldosterone by radioimmunoassay. Daytime ambulatory blood pressure (BP) was measured using Diasys Integra devices. PP was calculated as the difference between systolic and diastolic BP. The association of adiponectin with PP, plasma renin activity and plasma aldosterone were analyzed using generalized estimating equations with a gaussian family link and an exchangeable correlation structure to account for familial aggregation. Results: Data from 335 subjects from 73 families (152 men, 183 women) were available. Men and women had mean (SD) age of 45.4 ± 11.1 and 47.3 ± 12.4 years, BMI of 26.3 ± 4.4 and 27.8 ± 5.1 kg/m2, daytime systolic/diastolic BP of 132.6 ± 15.4 / 86.1 ± 10.9 and 130 ± 17.6 / 83.4 ± 11.1 mmHg, and daytime PP of 46.5 ± 9.9 and 46.7 ± 10.7 mmHg, respectively. Plasma adiponectin was 4.4± 3.04 ng/ml in men and 7.39 ± 5.44 ng/ml in women (P <0.001). After adjustment for age, sex and BMI, log-transformed adiponectin was negatively associated with daytime PP (-0.009 ± 0.003, P = 0.004), plasma renin activity (-0.248 ± 0.080, P = 0.002) and plasma aldosterone (-0.004 ± 0.002, P = 0.014). Conclusion: Low adiponectin is associated with increased ambulatory PP and RAS activation in subjects of African descent. Our data are consistent with the observation that angiotensin II receptor blockers increase adiponectin in humans.

Trends over time of virological and immunological characteristics in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcome of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not assessed in controlled trials. We aimed to analyse trends in the population effectiveness of ART in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study over the last decade. METHODS: We analysed the odds of stably suppressed viral load (ssVL: three consecutive values <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) and of CD4 cell count exceeding 500 cells/μL for each year between 2000 and 2008 in three scenarios: an open cohort; a closed cohort ignoring the influx of new participants after 2000; and a worst-case closed cohort retaining lost or dead patients as virological failures in subsequent years. We used generalized estimating equations with sex, age, risk, non-White ethnicity and era of starting combination ART (cART) as fixed co-factors. Time-updated co-factors included type of ART regimen, number of new drugs and adherence to therapy. RESULTS: The open cohort included 9802 individuals (median age 38 years; 31% female). From 2000 to 2008, the proportion of participants with ssVL increased from 37 to 64% [adjusted odds ratio (OR) per year 1.16 (95% CI 1.15-1.17)] and the proportion with CD4 count >500 cells/μL increased from 40 to >50% [OR 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.07)]. Similar trends were seen in the two closed cohorts. Adjustment did not substantially affect time trends. CONCLUSIONS: There was no relevant dilution effect through new participants entering the open clinical cohort, and the increase in virological/immunological success over time was not an artefact of the study design of open cohorts. This can partly be explained by new treatment options and other improvements in medical care.

Effect of n-3 fatty acids on markers of brain injury and incidence of sepsis-associated delirium in septic patients.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding immunomodulatory effects of parenteral n-3 fatty acids in sepsis are conflicting. In this study, the effect of administration of parenteral n-3 fatty acids on markers of brain injury, incidence of sepsis-associated delirium, and inflammatory mediators in septic patients was investigated. METHODS: Fifty patients with sepsis were randomized to receive either 2 ml/kg/day of a lipid emulsion containing highly refined fish oil (equivalent to n-3 fatty acids 0.12 mg/kg/day) during 7 days after admission to the intensive care unit or standard treatment. Markers of brain injury and inflammatory mediators were measured on days 1, 2, 3 and 7. Assessment for sepsis-associated delirium was performed daily. The primary outcome was the difference in S-100β from baseline to peak level between both the intervention and the control group, compared by t-test. Changes of all markers over time were explored in both groups, fitting a generalized estimating equations model. RESULTS: Mean difference in change of S-100β from baseline to peak level was 0.34 (95% CI: -0.18-0.85) between the intervention and control group, respectively (P = 0.19). We found no difference in plasma levels of S-100β, neuron-specific enolase, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, and C-reactive protein between groups over time. Incidence of sepsis-associated delirium was 75% in the intervention and 71% in the control groups (risk difference 4%, 95% CI -24-31%, P = 0.796). CONCLUSION: Administration of n-3 fatty acids did not affect markers of brain injury, incidence of sepsis-associated delirium, and inflammatory mediators in septic patients.

Prevalence of cerebral amyloid pathology in persons without dementia: a meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Cerebral amyloid-β aggregation is an early pathological event in Alzheimer disease (AD), starting decades before dementia onset. Estimates of the prevalence of amyloid pathology in persons without dementia are needed to understand the development of AD and to design prevention studies. OBJECTIVE: To use individual participant data meta-analysis to estimate the prevalence of amyloid pathology as measured with biomarkers in participants with normal cognition, subjective cognitive impairment (SCI), or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). DATA SOURCES: Relevant biomarker studies identified by searching studies published before April 2015 using the MEDLINE and Web of Science databases and through personal communication with investigators. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were included if they provided individual participant data for participants without dementia and used an a priori defined cutoff for amyloid positivity. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Individual records were provided for 2914 participants with normal cognition, 697 with SCI, and 3972 with MCI aged 18 to 100 years from 55 studies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Prevalence of amyloid pathology on positron emission tomography or in cerebrospinal fluid according to AD risk factors (age, apolipoprotein E [APOE] genotype, sex, and education) estimated by generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: The prevalence of amyloid pathology increased from age 50 to 90 years from 10% (95% CI, 8%-13%) to 44% (95% CI, 37%-51%) among participants with normal cognition; from 12% (95% CI, 8%-18%) to 43% (95% CI, 32%-55%) among patients with SCI; and from 27% (95% CI, 23%-32%) to 71% (95% CI, 66%-76%) among patients with MCI. APOE-ε4 carriers had 2 to 3 times higher prevalence estimates than noncarriers. The age at which 15% of the participants with normal cognition were amyloid positive was approximately 40 years for APOE ε4ε4 carriers, 50 years for ε2ε4 carriers, 55 years for ε3ε4 carriers, 65 years for ε3ε3 carriers, and 95 years for ε2ε3 carriers. Amyloid positivity was more common in highly educated participants but not associated with sex or biomarker modality. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among persons without dementia, the prevalence of cerebral amyloid pathology as determined by positron emission tomography or cerebrospinal fluid findings was associated with age, APOE genotype, and presence of cognitive impairment. These findings suggest a 20- to 30-year interval between first development of amyloid positivity and onset of dementia.

Assessment of skinfold thickness equations in estimating body composition in children with inflammatory bowel

Introduction: Growth is a central process in paediatrics. Weight and height evaluation are therefore routine exams for every child but in some situation, particularly inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), a wider evaluation of nutritional status needs to be performed. The assessment of body composition is essential in order to maintain acceptable growth using the following techniques: Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), bio-impedance-analysis (BIA) and anthropometric measurements (skinfold thickness skin), the latter being most easily available and most cost effective. Objectives: To assess the accuracy of skinfold equations in estimating percentage body fat (%BF) in children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), compared with assessment of body fat dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). Methods: Twenty-one patients (11 females, 10 males; mean age: 14.3 years, range 12 - 16 years) with IBD (Crohn's disease n = 15, ulcerative colitis n = 6)). Estimated%BF was computed using 6 established equations based on the triceps, biceps, subscapular and suprailiac skinfolds (Deurenberg, Weststrate, Slaughter, Durnin & Rahaman, Johnston, Brook) and compared to DEXA. Concordance analysis was performed using Lin's concordance correlation and the Bland-Altman limits of agreement method. Results: Durnin & Rahaman's equation shows a higher Lin's concordance coefficient with a small difference amongst raw values for skinfolds and DEXA compared to the other equations. Correlation coefficient between mean and difference is close to zero with a non-significant Bradley-Blackwood test. Conclusion: Body composition in paediatric IBD patients using the Durnin & Rahaman skinfold-equation adequately reflects values obtained by DEXA.

Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models using constraint propagation.

As modern molecular biology moves towards the analysis of biological systems as opposed to their individual components, the need for appropriate mathematical and computational techniques for understanding the dynamics and structure of such systems is becoming more pressing. For example, the modeling of biochemical systems using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on high-throughput, time-dense profiles is becoming more common-place, which is necessitating the development of improved techniques to estimate model parameters from such data. Due to the high dimensionality of this estimation problem, straight-forward optimization strategies rarely produce correct parameter values, and hence current methods tend to utilize genetic/evolutionary algorithms to perform non-linear parameter fitting. Here, we describe a completely deterministic approach, which is based on interval analysis. This allows us to examine entire sets of parameters, and thus to exhaust the global search within a finite number of steps. In particular, we show how our method may be applied to a generic class of ODEs used for modeling biochemical systems called Generalized Mass Action Models (GMAs). In addition, we show that for GMAs our method is amenable to the technique in interval arithmetic called constraint propagation, which allows great improvement of its efficiency. To illustrate the applicability of our method we apply it to some networks of biochemical reactions appearing in the literature, showing in particular that, in addition to estimating system parameters in the absence of noise, our method may also be used to recover the topology of these networks.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.