How reliable is the monitoring of permanent vegetation plots? A test with multiple observers

Questions: A multiple plot design was developed for permanent vegetation plots. How reliable are the different methods used in this design and which changes can we measure? Location: Alpine meadows (2430 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Alps. Methods: Four inventories were obtained from 40 m(2) plots: four subplots (0.4 m(2)) with a list of species, two 10m transects with the point method (50 points on each), one subplot (4 m2) with a list of species and visual cover estimates as a percentage and the complete plot (40 m(2)) with a list of species and visual estimates in classes. This design was tested by five to seven experienced botanists in three plots. Results: Whatever the sampling size, only 45-63% of the species were seen by all the observers. However, the majority of the overlooked species had cover < 0.1%. Pairs of observers overlooked 10-20% less species than single observers. The point method was the best method for cover estimate, but it took much longer than visual cover estimates, and 100 points allowed for the monitoring of only a very limited number of species. The visual estimate as a percentage was more precise than classes. Working in pairs did not improve the estimates, but one botanist repeating the survey is more reliable than a succession of different observers. Conclusion: Lists of species are insufficient for monitoring. It is necessary to add cover estimates to allow for subsequent interpretations in spite of the overlooked species. The choice of the method depends on the available resources: the point method is time consuming but gives precise data for a limited number of species, while visual estimates are quick but allow for recording only large changes in cover. Constant pairs of observers improve the reliability of the records.

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

The cognitive errors and coping patterns of child molesters as assessed by external observers: a pilot study

Cognitive errors (CE) and coping strategies (CS) are the focus of most cognitive-behavioral treatments for incarcerated child molesters. Several studies have reported differences in CEs and CSs between child molesters and controls. However, the vast majority of these studies assessed cognitive errors and coping using questionnaires, which are known to present a number of important limitations. This pilot study aimed to compare the CEs and CSs of N = 17 incarcerated child abusers and N = 12 controls using observer-rated methods, namely the Cognitive Error Rating Scale (CERS; Drapeau et al., 2005) and the Coping Action Pattern Rating Scale (CAPRS; Perry, Drapeau, & Dunkley, 2005). Results showed that child molesters presented more cognitive errors, in particular positive selective abstraction, and lower coping functioning, such as escape strategies. Treatment and research implications, including the use of observer-rated methods, are discussed.

Biased thinking assessed by external observers in borderline personality disorder

Objectives. Biased thinking (to some extent overlapping with the concepts of cognitive distortions and cognitive errors) is a key concept in cognitive therapy of Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD). Specific contents and cognitive processes related to BPD functioning are known. However, most studies are based on self-report measures which present a number of important limitations, in particular the difficulty in assessing non-conscious processes infused by affect. So far, no studies were conducted using valid observer-rated methodology addressing the question of biased thinking in BPD as it unfolds spontaneously in session. Design. This is a controlled interview study comparing two matched groups, BPD patients and healthy controls. Methods. A total of N= 25 clinical dynamic interviews with patients presenting with BPD were transcribed and rated using the Cognitive Errors Rating Scale (Drapeau, Perry, & Dunkley, 2008); their cognitive profiles were compared to those of N= 25 healthy controls who underwent the same procedure. Results. Overall, results indicated that no between-group difference in the frequency of specific biases was found. However, heightened levels of negative cognitive biases, in particular over-generalizing and fortune-telling, were associated with BPD. Furthermore, negative over-generalizing was associated with the number of BPD symptoms. Conclusions. These results have high levels of ecological validity and are promising for the refinement of cognitive theory of BPD. Clinical implications for assessment and intervention are discussed.

Mass detection on mammograms: influence of signal shape uncertainty on human and model observers.

We studied the influence of signal variability on human and model observers for detection tasks with realistic simulated masses superimposed on real patient mammographic backgrounds and synthesized mammographic backgrounds (clustered lumpy backgrounds, CLB). Results under the signal-known-exactly (SKE) paradigm were compared with signal-known-statistically (SKS) tasks for which the observers did not have prior knowledge of the shape or size of the signal. Human observers' performance did not vary significantly when benign masses were superimposed on real images or on CLB. Uncertainty and variability in signal shape did not degrade human performance significantly compared with the SKE task, while variability in signal size did. Implementation of appropriate internal noise components allowed the fit of model observers to human performance.

Development of model observers applied to 3D breast tomosynthesis microcalcifications and masses

The development of model observers for mimicking human detection strategies has followed from symmetric signals in simple noise to increasingly complex backgrounds. In this study we implement different model observers for the complex task of detecting a signal in a 3D image stack. The backgrounds come from real breast tomosynthesis acquisitions and the signals were simulated and reconstructed within the volume. Two different tasks relevant to the early detection of breast cancer were considered: detecting an 8 mm mass and detecting a cluster of microcalcifications. The model observers were calculated using a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) with dense difference-of-Gaussian channels, and a modified (Partial prewhitening [PPW]) observer which was adapted to realistic signals which are not circularly symmetric. The sustained temporal sensitivity function was used to filter the images before applying the spatial templates. For a frame rate of five frames per second, the only CHO that we calculated performed worse than the humans in a 4-AFC experiment. The other observers were variations of PPW and outperformed human observers in every single case. This initial frame rate was a rather low speed and the temporal filtering did not affect the results compared to a data set with no human temporal effects taken into account. We subsequently investigated two higher speeds at 5, 15 and 30 frames per second. We observed that for large masses, the two types of model observers investigated outperformed the human observers and would be suitable with the appropriate addition of internal noise. However, for microcalcifications both only the PPW observer consistently outperformed the humans. The study demonstrated the possibility of using a model observer which takes into account the temporal effects of scrolling through an image stack while being able to effectively detect a range of mass sizes and distributions.

Diagnostic value of MRI for the detection of suspected placental invasion: Does it depend on observers' experience?

Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic value of specific MR features for detection of suspected placental invasion according to observers' experience.Methods and Materials: Our study population included 25 pregnant women (mean age 35.16) investigated by prenatal MRI. In twelve out of them placental invasion was histopathologically proven, the 13 other women (52%) without placental invasion served as control group. Multiplanar T1- and T2-weighted sequences had been performed mostly without IV contrast injection (1.5 T). MR examinations of the two groups were rendered anonymous, mixed, then independently and retrospectively reviewed by two senior and two junior radiologists in view of 8 MR features indicating placentar invasion including the degree. Results were compared with surgical diagnosis (placenta normal/increta/accreta/percreta). Interobserver agrement between senior and junior readers were calculated. Stepwise logistic regression and receiver operating (ROC) curvers were performed.Results: Demographics between the two groups were not statistically different. Overall sensitivity and specificity for detecting placentar invasion was 90.9% and 75.0% for senior readers, and 81.8% and 61.8% for junior readers respectively. The most significant MR features indicating placentar invasion were T2 hypointense placental bands, followed by placenta praevia, focally interrupted myometrial border, posterior placental insertion, and heterogeneous placental signal. For each of the evaluated MR features the interobserver agreement kappa between the two senior readers was superior than that between the junior readers, ranging from bad (<0.4) to good (0.4-0.75).Conclusions: MRI can be a reliable and reproducible tool for detection of suspected placentar invasion, however very variable according to the observers' experience.

Understanding Political Knowledge and Its Influence on Voting Preferences in the 2007 Federal Election

In this article we propose a model to explain how voters' perceptions of their ideological proximity to a party affect their propensity to vote for that party. We argue that political knowledge plays a crucial moderating role in the relationship between party proximity and voting propensity. It is necessary, however, to distinguish between institutional knowledge (information about the political system) and party knowledge (information about the parties' left-right positions). An analysis of survey data from the 2007 Swiss federal elections supports our main hypothesis that party knowledge enhances the link between party proximity and voting propensity. Institutional knowledge may have additional influence, but clear evidence for this effect was obtained only for propensities to vote for the Swiss People's Party (SVP). Overall, the impact of political knowledge was found to be substantial, even after controlling for the outstanding influence of party identification and other predictors of voting propensities

E-tools for civic education : experiences from the election campaign in Switzerland 2007

Political participation is often very low in Switzerland especially among students and young citizens. In the run-up to the Swiss parliamentary election in October 2007 several online tools and campaigns were developed with the aim to increase not only the level of information about the political programs of parties and candidates, but also the electoral participation of younger citizens. From a practical point of view this paper will describe the development, marketing efforts and the distribution as well as the use of two of these tools : the so-called "Parteienkompass" (party compass) and the "myVote"-tool - an online voting assistance tool based on an issue-matching system comparing policy preferences between voters and candidates on an individual level. We also havea look at similar tools stemming from Voting Advice Applications (VAA) in other countries in Western Europe. The paper closes with the results of an evaluation and an outlook to further developments and on-going projects in the near future in Switzerland.

The Half-Life of Election Pledges : What makes MPs change their positions?

"Thou shalt not bear false witness," as we all know. Yet changing one's mind in case of respectable reasons seems to be allowed. Which is good news for politicians, but reduces the effectiveness of prospective voting, i.e. the focus on "the commitments of candidates to take actions that citizens desire to be taken" (Powell 2000: 9). This may be bad news for voters. By comparing pre-election commitments of Swiss members of parliament (MPs) with actual voting behaviour in the lower house of parliament, the following article explores the question how much confidence voters can have in prospective voting and what factors explain (non-)fulfilment of election pledges.