Accurate and efficient simulation of multiphase flow in a heterogeneous reservoir by using error estimate and control in the multiscale finite-volume framework

The multiscale finite-volume (MSFV) method is designed to reduce the computational cost of elliptic and parabolic problems with highly heterogeneous anisotropic coefficients. The reduction is achieved by splitting the original global problem into a set of local problems (with approximate local boundary conditions) coupled by a coarse global problem. It has been shown recently that the numerical errors in MSFV results can be reduced systematically with an iterative procedure that provides a conservative velocity field after any iteration step. The iterative MSFV (i-MSFV) method can be obtained with an improved (smoothed) multiscale solution to enhance the localization conditions, with a Krylov subspace method [e.g., the generalized-minimal-residual (GMRES) algorithm] preconditioned by the MSFV system, or with a combination of both. In a multiphase-flow system, a balance between accuracy and computational efficiency should be achieved by finding a minimum number of i-MSFV iterations (on pressure), which is necessary to achieve the desired accuracy in the saturation solution. In this work, we extend the i-MSFV method to sequential implicit simulation of time-dependent problems. To control the error of the coupled saturation/pressure system, we analyze the transport error caused by an approximate velocity field. We then propose an error-control strategy on the basis of the residual of the pressure equation. At the beginning of simulation, the pressure solution is iterated until a specified accuracy is achieved. To minimize the number of iterations in a multiphase-flow problem, the solution at the previous timestep is used to improve the localization assumption at the current timestep. Additional iterations are used only when the residual becomes larger than a specified threshold value. Numerical results show that only a few iterations on average are necessary to improve the MSFV results significantly, even for very challenging problems. Therefore, the proposed adaptive strategy yields efficient and accurate simulation of multiphase flow in heterogeneous porous media.

Error estimate and control in the MSFV method for multiphase flow in porous media

n this paper the iterative MSFV method is extended to include the sequential implicit simulation of time dependent problems involving the solution of a system of pressure-saturation equations. To control numerical errors in simulation results, an error estimate, based on the residual of the MSFV approximate pressure field, is introduced. In the initial time steps in simulation iterations are employed until a specified accuracy in pressure is achieved. This initial solution is then used to improve the localization assumption at later time steps. Additional iterations in pressure solution are employed only when the pressure residual becomes larger than a specified threshold value. Efficiency of the strategy and the error control criteria are numerically investigated. This paper also shows that it is possible to derive an a-priori estimate and control based on the allowed pressure-equation residual to guarantee the desired accuracy in saturation calculation.

An iterative Multiscale Finite-Volume algorithm converging to the exact solution

The multiscale finite volume (MsFV) method has been developed to efficiently solve large heterogeneous problems (elliptic or parabolic); it is usually employed for pressure equations and delivers conservative flux fields to be used in transport problems. The method essentially relies on the hypothesis that the (fine-scale) problem can be reasonably described by a set of local solutions coupled by a conservative global (coarse-scale) problem. In most cases, the boundary conditions assigned for the local problems are satisfactory and the approximate conservative fluxes provided by the method are accurate. In numerically challenging cases, however, a more accurate localization is required to obtain a good approximation of the fine-scale solution. In this paper we develop a procedure to iteratively improve the boundary conditions of the local problems. The algorithm relies on the data structure of the MsFV method and employs a Krylov-subspace projection method to obtain an unconditionally stable scheme and accelerate convergence. Two variants are considered: in the first, only the MsFV operator is used; in the second, the MsFV operator is combined in a two-step method with an operator derived from the problem solved to construct the conservative flux field. The resulting iterative MsFV algorithms allow arbitrary reduction of the solution error without compromising the construction of a conservative flux field, which is guaranteed at any iteration. Since it converges to the exact solution, the method can be regarded as a linear solver. In this context, the schemes proposed here can be viewed as preconditioned versions of the Generalized Minimal Residual method (GMRES), with a very peculiar characteristic that the residual on the coarse grid is zero at any iteration (thus conservative fluxes can be obtained).

On the use of spatially discrete data to compute energy and mass balance

In many practical applications the state of field soils is monitored by recording the evolution of temperature and soil moisture at discrete depths. We theoretically investigate the systematic errors that arise when mass and energy balances are computed directly from these measurements. We show that, even with no measurement or model errors, large residuals might result when finite difference approximations are used to compute fluxes and storage term. To calculate the limits set by the use of spatially discrete measurements on the accuracy of balance closure, we derive an analytical solution to estimate the residual on the basis of the two key parameters: the penetration depth and the distance between the measurements. When the thickness of the control layer for which the balance is computed is comparable to the penetration depth of the forcing (which depends on the thermal diffusivity and on the forcing period) large residuals arise. The residual is also very sensitive to the distance between the measurements, which requires accurately controlling the position of the sensors in field experiments. We also demonstrate that, for the same experimental setup, mass residuals are sensitively larger than the energy residuals due to the nonlinearity of the moisture transport equation. Our analysis suggests that a careful assessment of the systematic mass error introduced by the use of spatially discrete data is required before using fluxes and residuals computed directly from field measurements.

Analysis of a finite volume method for a cross-diffusion model in population dynamics

The main goal of this paper is to propose a convergent finite volume method for a reactionâeuro"diffusion system with cross-diffusion. First, we sketch an existence proof for a class of cross-diffusion systems. Then the standard two-point finite volume fluxes are used in combination with a nonlinear positivity-preserving approximation of the cross-diffusion coefficients. Existence and uniqueness of the approximate solution are addressed, and it is also shown that the scheme converges to the corresponding weak solution for the studied model. Furthermore, we provide a stability analysis to study pattern-formation phenomena, and we perform two-dimensional numerical examples which exhibit formation of nonuniform spatial patterns. From the simulations it is also found that experimental rates of convergence are slightly below second order. The convergence proof uses two ingredients of interest for various applications, namely the discrete Sobolev embedding inequalities with general boundary conditions and a space-time $L^1$ compactness argument that mimics the compactness lemma due to Kruzhkov. The proofs of these results are given in the Appendix.

Towards the validation of "in silico" models and physicochemical filters to identify and characterize new chemical entities

Summary: Lipophilicity plays an important role in the determination and the comprehension of the pharmacokinetic behavior of drugs. It is usually expressed by the partition coefficient (log P) in the n-octanol/water system. The use of an additional solvent system (1,2-dichlorethane/water) is necessary to obtain complementary information, as the log Poct values alone are not sufficient to explain ail biological properties. The aim of this thesis is to develop tools allowing to predict lipophilicity of new drugs and to analyze the information yielded by those log P values. Part I presents the development of theoretical models used to predict lipophilicity. Chapter 2 shows the necessity to extend the existing solvatochromic analyses in order to predict correctly the lipophilicity of new and complex neutral compounds. In Chapter 3, solvatochromic analyses are used to develop a model for the prediction of the lipophilicity of ions. A global model was obtained allowing to estimate the lipophilicity of neutral, anionic and cationic solutes. Part II presents the detailed study of two physicochemical filters. Chapter 4 shows that the Discovery RP Amide C16 stationary phase allows to estimate lipophilicity of the neutral form of basic and acidic solutes, except of lipophilic acidic solutes. Those solutes present additional interactions with this particular stationary phase. In Chapter 5, 4 different IANI stationary phases are investigated. For neutral solutes, linear data are obtained whatever the IANI column used. For the ionized solutes, their retention is due to a balance of electrostatic and hydrophobie interactions. Thus no discrimination is observed between different series of solutes bearing the same charge, from one column to an other. Part III presents two examples illustrating the information obtained thanks to Structure-Properties Relationships (SPR). Comparing graphically lipophilicity values obtained in two different solvent systems allows to reveal the presence of intramolecular effects .such as internai H-bond (Chapter 6). SPR is used to study the partitioning of ionizable groups encountered in Medicinal Chemistry (Chapter7). Résumé La lipophilie joue un .rôle important dans la détermination et la compréhension du comportement pharmacocinétique des médicaments. Elle est généralement exprimée par le coefficient de partage (log P) d'un composé dans le système de solvants n-octanol/eau. L'utilisation d'un deuxième système de solvants (1,2-dichloroéthane/eau) s'est avérée nécessaire afin d'obtenir des informations complémentaires, les valeurs de log Poct seules n'étant pas suffisantes pour expliquer toutes les propriétés biologiques. Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils permettant de prédire la lipophilie de nouveaux candidats médicaments et d'analyser l'information fournie par les valeurs de log P. La Partie I présente le développement de modèles théoriques utilisés pour prédire la lipophilie. Le chapitre 2 montre la nécessité de mettre à jour les analyses solvatochromiques existantes mais inadaptées à la prédiction de la lipophilie de nouveaux composés neutres. Dans le chapitre 3, la même méthodologie des analyses solvatochromiques est utilisée pour développer un modèle permettant de prédire la lipophilie des ions. Le modèle global obtenu permet la prédiction de la lipophilie de composés neutres, anioniques et cationiques. La Partie II présente l'étude approfondie de deux filtres physicochimiques. Le Chapitre 4 montre que la phase stationnaire Discovery RP Amide C16 permet la détermination de la lipophilie de la forme neutre de composés basiques et acides, à l'exception des acides très lipophiles. Ces derniers présentent des interactions supplémentaires avec cette phase stationnaire. Dans le Chapitre 5, 4 phases stationnaires IAM sont étudiées. Pour les composés neutres étudiés, des valeurs de rétention linéaires sont obtenues, quelque que soit la colonne IAM utilisée. Pour les composés ionisables, leur rétention est due à une balance entre des interactions électrostatiques et hydrophobes. Donc aucune discrimination n'est observée entre les différentes séries de composés portant la même charge d'une colonne à l'autre. La Partie III présente deux exemples illustrant les informations obtenues par l'utilisation des relations structures-propriétés. Comparer graphiquement la lipophilie mesurée dans deux différents systèmes de solvants permet de mettre en évidence la présence d'effets intramoléculaires tels que les liaisons hydrogène intramoléculaires (Chapitre 6). Cette approche des relations structures-propriétés est aussi appliquée à l'étude du partage de fonctions ionisables rencontrées en Chimie Thérapeutique (Chapitre 7) Résumé large public Pour exercer son effet thérapeutique, un médicament doit atteindre son site d'action en quantité suffisante. La quantité effective de médicament atteignant le site d'action dépend du nombre d'interactions entre le médicament et de nombreux constituants de l'organisme comme, par exemple, les enzymes du métabolisme ou les membranes biologiques. Le passage du médicament à travers ces membranes, appelé perméation, est un paramètre important à optimiser pour développer des médicaments plus puissants. La lipophilie joue un rôle clé dans la compréhension de la perméation passive des médicaments. La lipophilie est généralement exprimée par le coefficient de partage (log P) dans le système de solvants (non miscibles) n-octanol/eau. Les valeurs de log Poct seules se sont avérées insuffisantes pour expliquer la perméation à travers toutes les différentes membranes biologiques du corps humain. L'utilisation d'un système de solvants additionnel (le système 1,2-dichloroéthane/eau) a permis d'obtenir les informations complémentaires indispensables à une bonne compréhension du processus de perméation. Un grand nombre d'outils expérimentaux et théoriques sont à disposition pour étudier la lipophilie. Ce travail de thèse se focalise principalement sur le développement ou l'amélioration de certains de ces outils pour permettre leur application à un champ plus large de composés. Voici une brève description de deux de ces outils: 1)La factorisation de la lipophilie en fonction de certaines propriétés structurelles (telle que le volume) propres aux composés permet de développer des modèles théoriques utilisables pour la prédiction de la lipophilie de nouveaux composés ou médicaments. Cette approche est appliquée à l'analyse de la lipophilie de composés neutres ainsi qu'à la lipophilie de composés chargés. 2)La chromatographie liquide à haute pression sur phase inverse (RP-HPLC) est une méthode couramment utilisée pour la détermination expérimentale des valeurs de log Poct.

Nonclassical measurement error with applications to labor and development issues

Zero correlation between measurement error and model error has been assumed in existing panel data models dealing specifically with measurement error. We extend this literature and propose a simple model where one regressor is mismeasured, allowing the measurement error to correlate with model error. Zero correlation between measurement error and model error is a special case in our model where correlated measurement error equals zero. We ask two research questions. First, we wonder if the correlated measurement error can be identified in the context of panel data. Second, we wonder if classical instrumental variables in panel data need to be adjusted when correlation between measurement error and model error cannot be ignored. Under some regularity conditions the answer is yes to both questions. We then propose a two-step estimation corresponding to the two questions. The first step estimates correlated measurement error from a reverse regression; and the second step estimates usual coefficients of interest using adjusted instruments.

Simulit, un modèle de simulation pour la planification hospitalière. [Simulit, a simulation model for hospital planning].

The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

Seismic characterization of heterogeneous sedimentary and fractured rocks based on Biot's theory of poroelasticity

Understanding and quantifying seismic energy dissipation, which manifests itself in terms of velocity dispersion and attenuation, in fluid-saturated porous rocks is of considerable interest, since it offers the perspective of extracting information with regard to the elastic and hydraulic rock properties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that wave-induced fluid flow, or simply WIFF, is the dominant underlying physical mechanism governing these phenomena throughout the seismic, sonic, and ultrasonic frequency ranges. This mechanism, which can prevail at the microscopic, mesoscopic, and macroscopic scale ranges, operates through viscous energy dissipation in response to fluid pressure gradients and inertial effects induced by the passing wavefield. In the first part of this thesis, we present an analysis of broad-band multi-frequency sonic log data from a borehole penetrating water-saturated unconsolidated glacio-fluvial sediments. An inherent complication arising in the interpretation of the observed P-wave attenuation and velocity dispersion is, however, that the relative importance of WIFF at the various scales is unknown and difficult to unravel. An important generic result of our work is that the levels of attenuation and velocity dispersion due to the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities in water-saturated unconsolidated clastic sediments are expected to be largely negligible. Conversely, WIFF at the macroscopic scale allows for explaining most of the considered data while refinements provided by including WIFF at the microscopic scale in the analysis are locally meaningful. Using a Monte-Carlo-type inversion approach, we compare the capability of the different models describing WIFF at the macroscopic and microscopic scales with regard to their ability to constrain the dry frame elastic moduli and the permeability as well as their local probability distribution. In the second part of this thesis, we explore the issue of determining the size of a representative elementary volume (REV) arising in the numerical upscaling procedures of effective seismic velocity dispersion and attenuation of heterogeneous media. To this end, we focus on a set of idealized synthetic rock samples characterized by the presence of layers, fractures or patchy saturation in the mesocopic scale range. These scenarios are highly pertinent because they tend to be associated with very high levels of velocity dispersion and attenuation caused by WIFF in the mesoscopic scale range. The problem of determining the REV size for generic heterogeneous rocks is extremely complex and entirely unexplored in the given context. In this pilot study, we have therefore focused on periodic media, which assures the inherent self- similarity of the considered samples regardless of their size and thus simplifies the problem to a systematic analysis of the dependence of the REV size on the applied boundary conditions in the numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that boundary condition effects are absent for layered media and negligible in the presence of patchy saturation, thus resulting in minimum REV sizes. Conversely, strong boundary condition effects arise in the presence of a periodic distribution of finite-length fractures, thus leading to large REV sizes. In the third part of the thesis, we propose a novel effective poroelastic model for periodic media characterized by mesoscopic layering, which accounts for WIFF at both the macroscopic and mesoscopic scales as well as for the anisotropy associated with the layering. Correspondingly, this model correctly predicts the existence of the fast and slow P-waves as well as quasi and pure S-waves for any direction of wave propagation as long as the corresponding wavelengths are much larger than the layer thicknesses. The primary motivation for this work is that, for formations of intermediate to high permeability, such as, for example, unconsolidated sediments, clean sandstones, or fractured rocks, these two WIFF mechanisms may prevail at similar frequencies. This scenario, which can be expected rather common, cannot be accounted for by existing models for layered porous media. Comparisons of analytical solutions of the P- and S-wave phase velocities and inverse quality factors for wave propagation perpendicular to the layering with those obtained from numerical simulations based on a ID finite-element solution of the poroelastic equations of motion show very good agreement as long as the assumption of long wavelengths remains valid. A limitation of the proposed model is its inability to account for inertial effects in mesoscopic WIFF when both WIFF mechanisms prevail at similar frequencies. Our results do, however, also indicate that the associated error is likely to be relatively small, as, even at frequencies at which both inertial and scattering effects are expected to be at play, the proposed model provides a solution that is remarkably close to its numerical benchmark. -- Comprendre et pouvoir quantifier la dissipation d'énergie sismique qui se traduit par la dispersion et l'atténuation des vitesses dans les roches poreuses et saturées en fluide est un intérêt primordial pour obtenir des informations à propos des propriétés élastique et hydraulique des roches en question. De plus en plus d'études montrent que le déplacement relatif du fluide par rapport au solide induit par le passage de l'onde (wave induced fluid flow en anglais, dont on gardera ici l'abréviation largement utilisée, WIFF), représente le principal mécanisme physique qui régit ces phénomènes, pour la gamme des fréquences sismiques, sonique et jusqu'à l'ultrasonique. Ce mécanisme, qui prédomine aux échelles microscopique, mésoscopique et macroscopique, est lié à la dissipation d'énergie visqueuse résultant des gradients de pression de fluide et des effets inertiels induits par le passage du champ d'onde. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous présentons une analyse de données de diagraphie acoustique à large bande et multifréquences, issues d'un forage réalisé dans des sédiments glaciaux-fluviaux, non-consolidés et saturés en eau. La difficulté inhérente à l'interprétation de l'atténuation et de la dispersion des vitesses des ondes P observées, est que l'importance des WIFF aux différentes échelles est inconnue et difficile à quantifier. Notre étude montre que l'on peut négliger le taux d'atténuation et de dispersion des vitesses dû à la présence d'hétérogénéités à l'échelle mésoscopique dans des sédiments clastiques, non- consolidés et saturés en eau. A l'inverse, les WIFF à l'échelle macroscopique expliquent la plupart des données, tandis que les précisions apportées par les WIFF à l'échelle microscopique sont localement significatives. En utilisant une méthode d'inversion du type Monte-Carlo, nous avons comparé, pour les deux modèles WIFF aux échelles macroscopique et microscopique, leur capacité à contraindre les modules élastiques de la matrice sèche et la perméabilité ainsi que leur distribution de probabilité locale. Dans une seconde partie de cette thèse, nous cherchons une solution pour déterminer la dimension d'un volume élémentaire représentatif (noté VER). Cette problématique se pose dans les procédures numériques de changement d'échelle pour déterminer l'atténuation effective et la dispersion effective de la vitesse sismique dans un milieu hétérogène. Pour ce faire, nous nous concentrons sur un ensemble d'échantillons de roches synthétiques idéalisés incluant des strates, des fissures, ou une saturation partielle à l'échelle mésoscopique. Ces scénarios sont hautement pertinents, car ils sont associés à un taux très élevé d'atténuation et de dispersion des vitesses causé par les WIFF à l'échelle mésoscopique. L'enjeu de déterminer la dimension d'un VER pour une roche hétérogène est très complexe et encore inexploré dans le contexte actuel. Dans cette étude-pilote, nous nous focalisons sur des milieux périodiques, qui assurent l'autosimilarité des échantillons considérés indépendamment de leur taille. Ainsi, nous simplifions le problème à une analyse systématique de la dépendance de la dimension des VER aux conditions aux limites appliquées. Nos résultats indiquent que les effets des conditions aux limites sont absents pour un milieu stratifié, et négligeables pour un milieu à saturation partielle : cela résultant à des dimensions petites des VER. Au contraire, de forts effets des conditions aux limites apparaissent dans les milieux présentant une distribution périodique de fissures de taille finie : cela conduisant à de grandes dimensions des VER. Dans la troisième partie de cette thèse, nous proposons un nouveau modèle poro- élastique effectif, pour les milieux périodiques caractérisés par une stratification mésoscopique, qui prendra en compte les WIFF à la fois aux échelles mésoscopique et macroscopique, ainsi que l'anisotropie associée à ces strates. Ce modèle prédit alors avec exactitude l'existence des ondes P rapides et lentes ainsi que les quasis et pures ondes S, pour toutes les directions de propagation de l'onde, tant que la longueur d'onde correspondante est bien plus grande que l'épaisseur de la strate. L'intérêt principal de ce travail est que, pour les formations à perméabilité moyenne à élevée, comme, par exemple, les sédiments non- consolidés, les grès ou encore les roches fissurées, ces deux mécanismes d'WIFF peuvent avoir lieu à des fréquences similaires. Or, ce scénario, qui est assez commun, n'est pas décrit par les modèles existants pour les milieux poreux stratifiés. Les comparaisons des solutions analytiques des vitesses des ondes P et S et de l'atténuation de la propagation des ondes perpendiculaires à la stratification, avec les solutions obtenues à partir de simulations numériques en éléments finis, fondées sur une solution obtenue en 1D des équations poro- élastiques, montrent un très bon accord, tant que l'hypothèse des grandes longueurs d'onde reste valable. Il y a cependant une limitation de ce modèle qui est liée à son incapacité à prendre en compte les effets inertiels dans les WIFF mésoscopiques quand les deux mécanismes d'WIFF prédominent à des fréquences similaires. Néanmoins, nos résultats montrent aussi que l'erreur associée est relativement faible, même à des fréquences à laquelle sont attendus les deux effets d'inertie et de diffusion, indiquant que le modèle proposé fournit une solution qui est remarquablement proche de sa référence numérique.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women. INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

Increasing prevalence of gastroschisis in Europe 1980-2002: a phenomenon restricted to younger mothers?

Gastroschisis is an abdominal wall defect more prevalent in offspring of young mothers. It is known to be increasing in prevalence despite the general decrease in the proportion of births to young European women. We investigated whether the increase in prevalence was restricted to the high-risk younger mothers. We analysed 936 cases of gastroschisis from 25 population-based registries in 15 European countries, 1980-2002. We fitted a Bayesian Hierarchical Model which allowed us to estimate trend, to estimate which registries were significantly different from the common distribution, and to adjust simultaneously for maternal age, time (in grouped years) and the random variation between registries. The maternal age-standardised prevalence (standardised to the year 2000 European maternal age structure) increased almost fourfold from 0.54 [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 0.37, 0.75] per 10,000 births in 1980-84 to 2.12 [95% CrI 1.85, 2.40] per 10,000 births in 2000-02. The relative risk of gastroschisis for mothers <20 years of age in 1995-2002 was 7.0 [95% CrI 5.6, 8.7]. There were geographical differences within Europe, with higher rates of gastroschisis in the UK, and lower rates in Italy after adjusting for maternal age. After standardising for regional variation, our results showed that the increase in risk over time was the same for mothers of all ages--the increase for mothers <20 years was 3.96-fold compared with an increase of 3.95-fold for mothers in the other age groups. These findings indicate that the phenomenon of increasing gastroschisis prevalence is not restricted to younger mothers only.

Brain energy metabolism measured by (13) C magnetic resonance spectroscopy in vivo upon infusion of [3-(13) C]lactate.

The brain uses lactate produced by glycolysis as an energy source. How lactate originated from the blood stream is used to fuel brain metabolism is not clear. The current study measures brain metabolic fluxes and estimates the amount of pyruvate that becomes labeled in glial and neuronal compartments upon infusion of [3-(13) C]lactate. For that, labeling incorporation into carbons of glutamate and glutamine was measured by (13) C magnetic resonance spectroscopy at 14.1 T and analyzed with a two-compartment model of brain metabolism to estimate rates of mitochondrial oxidation, glial pyruvate carboxylation, and the glutamate-glutamine cycle as well as pyruvate fractional enrichments. Extracerebral lactate at supraphysiological levels contributes at least two-fold more to replenish the neuronal than the glial pyruvate pools. The rates of mitochondrial oxidation in neurons and glia, pyruvate carboxylase, and glutamate-glutamine cycles were similar to those estimated by administration of (13) C-enriched glucose, the main fuel of brain energy metabolism. These results are in agreement with primary utilization of exogenous lactate in neurons rather than astrocytes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multidimensional Deprivation in Contemporary Switzerland Across Social Groups and Time

We have investigated the phenomenon of deprivation in contemporary Switzerland through the adoption of a multidimensional, dynamic approach. By applying Self Organizing Maps (SOM) to a set of 33 non-monetary indicators from the 2009 wave of the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), we identified 13 prototypical forms (or clusters) of well-being, financial vulnerability, psycho-physiological fragility and deprivation within a topological dimensional space. Then new data from the previous waves (2003 to 2008) were classified by the SOM model, making it possible to estimate the weight of the different clusters in time and reconstruct the dynamics of stability and mobility of individuals within the map. Looking at the transition probabilities between year t and year t+1, we observed that the paths of mobility which catalyze the largest number of observations are those connecting clusters that are adjacent on the topological space.

Local and global error models to improve uncertainty quantification

In groundwater applications, Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the uncertainty on geological parameters. However, their brute-force application becomes computationally prohibitive for highly detailed geological descriptions, complex physical processes, and a large number of realizations. The Distance Kernel Method (DKM) overcomes this issue by clustering the realizations in a multidimensional space based on the flow responses obtained by means of an approximate (computationally cheaper) model; then, the uncertainty is estimated from the exact responses that are computed only for one representative realization per cluster (the medoid). Usually, DKM is employed to decrease the size of the sample of realizations that are considered to estimate the uncertainty. We propose to use the information from the approximate responses for uncertainty quantification. The subset of exact solutions provided by DKM is then employed to construct an error model and correct the potential bias of the approximate model. Two error models are devised that both employ the difference between approximate and exact medoid solutions, but differ in the way medoid errors are interpolated to correct the whole set of realizations. The Local Error Model rests upon the clustering defined by DKM and can be seen as a natural way to account for intra-cluster variability; the Global Error Model employs a linear interpolation of all medoid errors regardless of the cluster to which the single realization belongs. These error models are evaluated for an idealized pollution problem in which the uncertainty of the breakthrough curve needs to be estimated. For this numerical test case, we demonstrate that the error models improve the uncertainty quantification provided by the DKM algorithm and are effective in correcting the bias of the estimate computed solely from the MsFV results. The framework presented here is not specific to the methods considered and can be applied to other combinations of approximate models and techniques to select a subset of realizations

A general model to predict individual exposure to solar UV by using ambient irradiance data

Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.