Geological transect across the Northwestern Himalaya in eastern Ladakh and Lahul (A model for the continental collision of India and Asia)

The detailed geological mapping and structural study of a complete transect across the northwestern Himalaya allow to describe the tectonic evolution of the north Indian continental margin during the Tethys ocean opening and the Himalayan Orogeny. The Late Paleozoic Tethys rifting is associated with several tectonomagmatic events. In Upper Lahul and SE Zanskar, this extensional phase is recorded by Lower Carboniferous synsedimentary transtensional faults, a Lower Permian stratigraphic unconformity, a Lower Permian granitic intrusion and middle Permian basaltic extrusions (Panjal Traps). In eastern Ladakh, a Permian listric normal fault is also related to this phase. The scarcity of synsedimentary faults and the gradual increase of the Permian syn-rift sediment thickness towards the NE suggest a flexural type margin. The collision of India and Asia is characterized by a succession of contrasting orogenic phases. South of the Suture Zone, the initiation of the SW vergent Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe corresponds to an early phase of continental underthrusting. To the S, in Lahul, an opposite underthrusting within the Indian plate is recorded by the NE vergent Tandi Syncline. This structure is associated with the newly defined Shikar Beh Nappe, now partly eroded, which is responsible for the high grade (amphibolite facies) regional metamorphism of South Lahul. The main thrusting of the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe followed the formation of the Shikar Beh Nappe. The Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe developed by ductile shear of the upper part of the subducted Indian continental margin and is responsible for the progressive regional metamorphism of SE Zanskar, reaching amphibolite facies below the frontal part of the nappe, near Sarchu. In Upper Lahul, the frontal parts of the Nyimaling-Tsarap and Shikar Beh nappes are separated by a zone of low grade metamorphic rocks (pumpellyite-actinolite facies to lower greenschist facies). At high structural level, the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe is characterized by imbricate structures, which grade into a large ductile shear zone with depth. The related crustal shortening is about 87 km. The root zone and the frontal part of this nappe have been subsequently affected by two zones of dextral transpression and underthrusting: the Nyimaling Shear Zone and the Sarchu Shear Zone. These shear zones are interpreted as consequences of the counterclockwise rotation of the continental underthrusting direction of India relative to Asia, which occurred some 45 and 36 Ma ago, according to plate tectonic models. Later, a phase of NE vergent `'backfolding'' developed on these two zones of dextral transpression, creating isoclinal folds in SE Zanskar and more open folds in the Nyimaling Dome and in the Indus Molasse sediments. During a late stage of the Himalayan Orogeny, the frontal part of the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe underwent an extension of about 15 km. This phase is represented by two types of structures, responsible for the tectonic unroofing of the amphibolite facies rocks of the Sarchu area: the Sarchu high angle Normal Fault, cutting a first set of low angle normal faults, which have been created by reactivation of older thrust planes related to the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe.

Simulation of stromatolite growth using diffusion-limited aggregation and a discrete model of biogeochemical exchanges in microbial mat

Resume : Mieux comprendre les stromatolithes et les tapis microbiens est un sujet important en biogéosciences puisque cela aide à l'étude des premières formes de vie sur Terre, a mieux cerner l'écologie des communautés microbiennes et la contribution des microorganismes a la biominéralisation, et même à poser certains fondements dans les recherches en exobiologie. D'autre part, la modélisation est un outil puissant utilisé dans les sciences naturelles pour appréhender différents phénomènes de façon théorique. Les modèles sont généralement construits sur un système d'équations différentielles et les résultats sont obtenus en résolvant ce système. Les logiciels disponibles pour implémenter les modèles incluent les logiciels mathématiques et les logiciels généraux de simulation. L'objectif principal de cette thèse est de développer des modèles et des logiciels pour aider a comprendre, via la simulation, le fonctionnement des stromatolithes et des tapis microbiens. Ces logiciels ont été développés en C++ en ne partant d'aucun pré-requis de façon a privilégier performance et flexibilité maximales. Cette démarche permet de construire des modèles bien plus spécifiques et plus appropriés aux phénomènes a modéliser. Premièrement, nous avons étudié la croissance et la morphologie des stromatolithes. Nous avons construit un modèle tridimensionnel fondé sur l'agrégation par diffusion limitée. Le modèle a été implémenté en deux applications C++: un moteur de simulation capable d'exécuter un batch de simulations et de produire des fichiers de résultats, et un outil de visualisation qui permet d'analyser les résultats en trois dimensions. Après avoir vérifié que ce modèle peut en effet reproduire la croissance et la morphologie de plusieurs types de stromatolithes, nous avons introduit un processus de sédimentation comme facteur externe. Ceci nous a mené a des résultats intéressants, et permis de soutenir l'hypothèse que la morphologie des stromatolithes pourrait être le résultat de facteurs externes autant que de facteurs internes. Ceci est important car la classification des stromatolithes est généralement fondée sur leur morphologie, imposant que la forme d'un stromatolithe est dépendante de facteurs internes uniquement (c'est-à-dire les tapis microbiens). Les résultats avancés dans ce mémoire contredisent donc ces assertions communément admises. Ensuite, nous avons décidé de mener des recherches plus en profondeur sur les aspects fonctionnels des tapis microbiens. Nous avons construit un modèle bidimensionnel de réaction-diffusion fondé sur la simulation discrète. Ce modèle a été implémenté dans une application C++ qui permet de paramétrer et exécuter des simulations. Nous avons ensuite pu comparer les résultats de simulation avec des données du monde réel et vérifier que le modèle peut en effet imiter le comportement de certains tapis microbiens. Ainsi, nous avons pu émettre et vérifier des hypothèses sur le fonctionnement de certains tapis microbiens pour nous aider à mieux en comprendre certains aspects, comme la dynamique des éléments, en particulier le soufre et l'oxygène. En conclusion, ce travail a abouti à l'écriture de logiciels dédiés à la simulation de tapis microbiens d'un point de vue tant morphologique que fonctionnel, suivant deux approches différentes, l'une holistique, l'autre plus analytique. Ces logiciels sont gratuits et diffusés sous licence GPL (General Public License). Abstract : Better understanding of stromatolites and microbial mats is an important topic in biogeosciences as it helps studying the early forms of life on Earth, provides clues re- garding the ecology of microbial ecosystems and their contribution to biomineralization, and gives basis to a new science, exobiology. On the other hand, modelling is a powerful tool used in natural sciences for the theoretical approach of various phenomena. Models are usually built on a system of differential equations and results are obtained by solving that system. Available software to implement models includes mathematical solvers and general simulation software. The main objective of this thesis is to develop models and software able to help to understand the functioning of stromatolites and microbial mats. Software was developed in C++ from scratch for maximum performance and flexibility. This allows to build models much more specific to a phenomenon rather than general software. First, we studied stromatolite growth and morphology. We built a three-dimensional model based on diffusion-limited aggregation. The model was implemented in two C++ applications: a simulator engine, which can run a batch of simulations and produce result files, and a Visualization tool, which allows results to be analysed in three dimensions. After verifying that our model can indeed reproduce the growth and morphology of several types of stromatolites, we introduced a sedimentation process as an external factor. This lead to interesting results, and allowed to emit the hypothesis that stromatolite morphology may be the result of external factors as much as internal factors. This is important as stromatolite classification is usually based on their morphology, imposing that a stromatolite shape is dependant on internal factors only (i.e. the microbial mat). This statement is contradicted by our findings, Second, we decided to investigate deeper the functioning of microbial mats, We built a two-dimensional reaction-diffusion model based on discrete simulation, The model was implemented in a C++ application that allows setting and running simulations. We could then compare simulation results with real world data and verify that our model can indeed mimic the behaviour of some microbial mats. Thus, we have proposed and verified hypotheses regarding microbial mats functioning in order to help to better understand them, e.g. the cycle of some elements such as oxygen or sulfur. ln conclusion, this PhD provides a simulation software, dealing with two different approaches. This software is free and available under a GPL licence.

Single breath-hold 3D measurement of left atrial volume using compressed sensing cardiovascular magnetic resonance and a non-model-based reconstruction approach.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial (LA) dilatation is associated with a large variety of cardiac diseases. Current cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) strategies to measure LA volumes are based on multi-breath-hold multi-slice acquisitions, which are time-consuming and susceptible to misregistration. AIM: To develop a time-efficient single breath-hold 3D CMR acquisition and reconstruction method to precisely measure LA volumes and function. METHODS: A highly accelerated compressed-sensing multi-slice cine sequence (CS-cineCMR) was combined with a non-model-based 3D reconstruction method to measure LA volumes with high temporal and spatial resolution during a single breath-hold. This approach was validated in LA phantoms of different shapes and applied in 3 patients. In addition, the influence of slice orientations on accuracy was evaluated in the LA phantoms for the new approach in comparison with a conventional model-based biplane area-length reconstruction. As a reference in patients, a self-navigated high-resolution whole-heart 3D dataset (3D-HR-CMR) was acquired during mid-diastole to yield accurate LA volumes. RESULTS: Phantom studies. LA volumes were accurately measured by CS-cineCMR with a mean difference of -4.73 ± 1.75 ml (-8.67 ± 3.54%, r2 = 0.94). For the new method the calculated volumes were not significantly different when different orientations of the CS-cineCMR slices were applied to cover the LA phantoms. Long-axis "aligned" vs "not aligned" with the phantom long-axis yielded similar differences vs the reference volume (-4.87 ± 1.73 ml vs. -4.45 ± 1.97 ml, p = 0.67) and short-axis "perpendicular" vs. "not-perpendicular" with the LA long-axis (-4.72 ± 1.66 ml vs. -4.75 ± 2.13 ml; p = 0.98). The conventional bi-plane area-length method was susceptible for slice orientations (p = 0.0085 for the interaction of "slice orientation" and "reconstruction technique", 2-way ANOVA for repeated measures). To use the 3D-HR-CMR as the reference for LA volumes in patients, it was validated in the LA phantoms (mean difference: -1.37 ± 1.35 ml, -2.38 ± 2.44%, r2 = 0.97). Patient study: The CS-cineCMR LA volumes of the mid-diastolic frame matched closely with the reference LA volume (measured by 3D-HR-CMR) with a difference of -2.66 ± 6.5 ml (3.0% underestimation; true LA volumes: 63 ml, 62 ml, and 395 ml). Finally, a high intra- and inter-observer agreement for maximal and minimal LA volume measurement is also shown. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method combines a highly accelerated single-breathhold compressed-sensing multi-slice CMR technique with a non-model-based 3D reconstruction to accurately and reproducibly measure LA volumes and function.

Development of model observers applied to 3D breast tomosynthesis microcalcifications and masses

The development of model observers for mimicking human detection strategies has followed from symmetric signals in simple noise to increasingly complex backgrounds. In this study we implement different model observers for the complex task of detecting a signal in a 3D image stack. The backgrounds come from real breast tomosynthesis acquisitions and the signals were simulated and reconstructed within the volume. Two different tasks relevant to the early detection of breast cancer were considered: detecting an 8 mm mass and detecting a cluster of microcalcifications. The model observers were calculated using a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) with dense difference-of-Gaussian channels, and a modified (Partial prewhitening [PPW]) observer which was adapted to realistic signals which are not circularly symmetric. The sustained temporal sensitivity function was used to filter the images before applying the spatial templates. For a frame rate of five frames per second, the only CHO that we calculated performed worse than the humans in a 4-AFC experiment. The other observers were variations of PPW and outperformed human observers in every single case. This initial frame rate was a rather low speed and the temporal filtering did not affect the results compared to a data set with no human temporal effects taken into account. We subsequently investigated two higher speeds at 5, 15 and 30 frames per second. We observed that for large masses, the two types of model observers investigated outperformed the human observers and would be suitable with the appropriate addition of internal noise. However, for microcalcifications both only the PPW observer consistently outperformed the humans. The study demonstrated the possibility of using a model observer which takes into account the temporal effects of scrolling through an image stack while being able to effectively detect a range of mass sizes and distributions.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

The baby and the couple : understanding and treating young families

The Baby and the Couple provides an insider's view on how infant communication develops in the context of the family and how parents either work together as a team or struggle in the process. The authors present vignettes from everyday life as well as case studies from a longitudinal research project of infants and their parents interacting together in the Lausanne Trilogue Play (LTP), an assessment tool for very young families. Divided into three parts, the book focuses not only on the parents, but also on the infant's contribution to the family. Part 1 presents a case study of Lucas and his family, from infancy to age 5. With each chapter we see how, in the context of their families, infants learn to communicate with more than one person at a time. Part 2 explores how infants cope when their parents struggle to work together - excluding, competing or only connecting through their child. The authors follow several case examples from infancy through to early childhood to illustrate various forms of problematic co-parenting, along with the infant's derailed trajectory at different ages and stages. In Part 3, prevention and intervention models based on the LTP are presented. In addition to an overview of these programs, chapters are devoted to the Developmental Systems Consultation, which combines use of the LTP and video feedback, and a new model, Reflective Family Play, which allows whole families to engage in treatment. The Baby and the Couple is a vital resource for professionals working in the fields of infant and preschool mental health including psychiatrists, psychologists, social workers, family therapists and educators, as well as researchers.

Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE: An objective and simple prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism could be helpful in guiding initial intensity of treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction rule that accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 inpatient discharges with pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our prediction rule using logistic regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome, and patient demographic and clinical data routinely available at presentation as potential predictor variables. We externally validated the rule in 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism from Switzerland and France. MEASUREMENTS: We compared mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. MAIN RESULTS: The prediction rule is based on 11 simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with mortality and stratifies patients with pulmonary embolism into five severity classes, with 30-day mortality rates of 0-1.6% in class I, 1.7-3.5% in class II, 3.2-7.1% in class III, 4.0-11.4% in class IV, and 10.0-24.5% in class V across the derivation and validation samples. Inpatient death and nonfatal complications were <or= 1.1% among patients in class I and <or= 1.9% among patients in class II. CONCLUSIONS: Our rule accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into classes of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Further validation of the rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid to guide the initial management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

Forensic intelligence framework-Part I: induction of a transversal model by comparing illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring

Forensic intelligence is a distinct dimension of forensic science. Forensic intelligence processes have mostly been developed to address either a specific type of trace or a specific problem. Even though these empirical developments have led to successes, they are trace-specific in nature and contribute to the generation of silos which hamper the establishment of a more general and transversal model. Forensic intelligence has shown some important perspectives but more general developments are required to address persistent challenges. This will ensure the progress of the discipline as well as its widespread implementation in the future. This paper demonstrates that the description of forensic intelligence processes, their architectures, and the methods for building them can, at a certain level, be abstracted from the type of traces considered. A comparative analysis is made between two forensic intelligence approaches developed independently in Australia and in Europe regarding the monitoring of apparently very different kind of problems: illicit drugs and false identity documents. An inductive effort is pursued to identify similarities and to outline a general model. Besides breaking barriers between apparently separate fields of study in forensic science and intelligence, this transversal model would assist in defining forensic intelligence, its role and place in policing, and in identifying its contributions and limitations. The model will facilitate the paradigm shift from the current case-by-case reactive attitude towards a proactive approach by serving as a guideline for the use of forensic case data in an intelligence-led perspective. A follow-up article will specifically address issues related to comparison processes, decision points and organisational issues regarding forensic intelligence (part II).

A model of gender prejudice, power, and discrimination: How hierarchy-enhancing factors predominate over hierarchy-attenuating factors

Gender inequalities remain an issue in our society and particularly in the workplace. Several factors can explain this gender difference in top-level managerial positions such as career ambitions but also biases against women. In our chapter, we propose a model explaining why gender inequalities and particularly discrimination against women is still present in our societies despite social norms and existing legislation on gender equality. To this purpose, we review research on discrimination through two different approaches, (a) a prejudice approach through the justification-suppression model developed by Crandall and Eshleman (2003) and (b) a power approach through the social dominance theory (Pratto, Sidanius, Stallworth, & Malle, 1994; Sidanius & Pratto, 1999). In our work, we integrate these two approaches and propose a model of gender prejudice, power and discrimination. The integration of these two approaches contributes to a better understanding of how discrimination against women is formed and maintained over time.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Interleukin-28B polymorphisms, IP-10, viral load and age predict the outcome of therapy in genotype 1 hepatitis C virus under real-life conditions

Background and Aims: IL28B polymorphisms, interferon (IFN)-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score have been reported to predict rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), but it is not known whether these factors represent independent, clinically useful predictors. The aim of the study was to assess factors (including IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 levels and HOMA-IR score) independently predicting response to therapy in CHC under real life conditions.Methods: Multivariate analysis of factors predicting RVR and SVR in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with pegylated IFN alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicenter study.Results: Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (vs. AG/GG) (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age < 40 yrs (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age < 40 yrs (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (32 of 33, 97%; OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99; p=0.009) or 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67; p=0.01).Conclusions: In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pretreatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

Defining the site of light perception and initiation of phototropism in Arabidopsis.

Phototropism is an adaptive response allowing plants to optimize photosynthetic light capture. This is achieved by asymmetric growth between the shaded and lit sides of the stimulated organ. In grass seedlings, the site of phototropin-mediated light perception is distinct from the site of bending; however, in dicotyledonous plants (e.g., Arabidopsis), spatial aspects of perception remain debatable. We use morphological studies and genetics to show that phototropism can occur in the absence of the root, lower hypocotyl, hypocotyl apex, and cotyledons. Tissue-specific expression of the phototropin1 (phot1) photoreceptor demonstrates that light sensing occurs in the upper hypocotyl and that expression of phot1 in the hypocotyl elongation zone is sufficient to enable a normal phototropic response. Moreover, we show that efficient phototropism occurs when phot1 is expressed from endodermal, cortical, or epidermal cells and that its local activation rapidly leads to a global response throughout the seedling. We propose that spatial aspects in the steps leading from light perception to growth reorientation during phototropism differ between grasses and dicots. These results are important to properly interpret genetic experiments and establish a model connecting light perception to the growth response, including cellular and morphological aspects.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Time-Course In Vivo Trafficking Pattern and Effector Function of Donor-Specific Regulatory T Cells in Response to an Allograft.

Background: Experimental data have suggested that adoptive transfer of CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs), capable of controlling immune responses to specifi c auto- or alloantigens, could be used as a therapeutic strategy to promote specifi c tolerance in T-cell mediated diseases and in organ transplantation (Tx). However, before advocating the application of immunotherapy with Tregs in Tx, we need to improve our understanding of their in vivo homeostasis, traffi cking pattern and effector function in response to alloantigens. Methods : Donor-antigen specifi c murine Tregs were generated and characterized in vitro following our described protocols. Using an adoptive transfer and skin allotransplantation model, we have analyzed the in vivo expansion and homing of fl uorescent-labeled effector T cells (Teff) and Tregs, at different time-points after Tx, using fl ow-cytometry as well as fl uorescence microscopy techniques. Results: Tregs expressed CD62L, CCR7 and CD103 allowing their homing into lymphoid and non-lymphoid tissues (gut, skin) after intravenous injection. While hyporesponsive to TCR stimulation in vitro, transferred Tregs survived, migrated to secondary lymphoid organs and preferentially expanded within the allograft draining lymph nodes. Furthermore, Foxp3+ cells could be detected inside the allograft as early as day 3-5 after Tx. At a much later time-point (day 60 after Tx), graft-infi ltrating Foxp3+ cells were also detectable in tolerant recipients. When transferred alone, CD4+CD25- Teff cells expanded within secondary lymphoid organs and infi ltrated the allograft by day 3-5 after Tx. The co-transfer of Tregs limited the expansion of alloreactive Teff cells as well as their recruitment into the allograft. The promotion of graft survival observed in the presence of Tregs was in part mediated by the inhibition of the production of effector cytokines by CD4+CD25- T cells. Conclusion: Taken together, our results suggest that the suppression of allograft rejection and the induction of Tx tolerance are in part dependant on the alloantigendriven homing and expansion of Tregs. Thus, the appropriate localization of Tregs may be critical for their suppressive function in vivo.