Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Subplate subpopulations in the hypoxic-ischemic neonatal rat brain

Subplate neurons are among the earliest born cells of the neocortex and play a fundamental role in cortical development, in particular in the formation of thalamocortical connections. Subplate abnormalities have been described in several neuropathological disorders including schizophrenia, autism and periventricular eukomalacia (Eastwood and Harrison, Schizophr Res, 79, 2005; McQuillen and Ferriero, Brain Pathol, 15, 2005). We have identified and confirmed a range of specific markers for murine subplate using a microarray based approach and found that different subplate subpopulations are characterized by distinct expression patterns of these genes (Hoerder-Suabedissen et al., Cereb Cortex, 19, 2009). In this current study, we are making use of these markers to investigate neuropathological changes of the subplate after cerebral hypoxia-ischemia (HI) in the neonatal rat. First, we characterized the expression of a number of murine subplate markers in the postnatal rat using immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization. While several genes (Nurr1, Cplx3, Ctgf and Tmem163) presented very similar expression patterns as in the mouse, others (Ddc, MoxD1 and TRH) were completely absent in the rat cortex. This finding suggests important differences in the subplate populations of these two rodent species. In a neonatal rat model of HI, selective vulnerability of subplate has been suggested using BrdU birthdating methods (McQuillen et al., J Neurosci, 15, 2003). We hypothesized that certain subplate subpopulations could be more susceptible than others and analyzed the above subplate markers in a similar yet slightly milder HI model. Two-day old male rat pups underwent permanent occlusion of the right common carotid artery followed by a period of hypoxia (6% O2, 1.5h or 2h) and were analyzed six days later. Preliminary counts on three subplate subpopulations (Nurr1+, Cplx3+ and Ctgf+ cells, respectively) showed similar reductions in cell numbers for all three groups. In addition, we found that the majority of cases which show changes in the subplate also exhibit lesions in the deep cortical layers VI (identified by FoxP2 expression) and sometimes even layer V (revealed by Er81 immunoreactivity), which questions the selective susceptibility of subplate over other cortical layers under the conditions we used in our model. Supported by MRC, FMO holds a Berrow Scholarship, Lincoln College, Oxford.