Ambient seismic noise monitoring of a clay landslide: Toward failure prediction

Given that clay-rich landslides may become mobilized, leading to rapid mass movements (earthflows and debris flows), they pose critical problems in risk management worldwide. The most widely proposed mechanism leading to such flow-like movements is the increase in water pore pressure in the sliding mass, generating partial or complete liquefaction. This solid-to-liquid transition results in a dramatic reduction of mechanical rigidity in the liquefied zones, which could be detected by monitoring shear wave velocity variations. With this purpose in mind, the ambient seismic noise correlation technique has been applied to measure the variation in the seismic surface wave velocity in the Pont Bourquin landslide (Swiss Alps). This small but active composite earthslide-earthflow was equipped with continuously recording seismic sensors during spring and summer 2010. An earthslide of a few thousand cubic meters was triggered in mid-August 2010, after a rainy period. This article shows that the seismic velocity of the sliding material, measured from daily noise correlograms, decreased continuously and rapidly for several days prior to the catastrophic event. From a spectral analysis of the velocity decrease, it was possible to determine the location of the change at the base of the sliding layer. These results demonstrate that ambient seismic noise can be used to detect rigidity variations before failure and could potentially be used to predict landslides.

Advanced age increases the failure rate of non-operative management of blunt splenic injuries

Introduction: Non-operative management (NOM) of blunt splenic injuries in hemodynamically stable patients is nowadays considered the standard treatment. Material and Methods: The aim was to clarify the criteria used for primary operative management (OM) and planned NOM. Furthermore, the study aimed to identify risk factors for failure of NOM. All adult patients with blunt splenic injuries treated from 2000-2008 were reviewed and a logistic regression analysis employed. Results: There were 206 patients (146 men, 70.9%). Mean age was 38.2 ± 19.1 years. The mean Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 30.9 ± 11.6. The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) classification of the splenic injury was: grade I, n = 43 (20.9%); grade II, n = 52 (25.2%); grade III, n = 60 (29.1%), grade IV, n = 42 (20.4%) and grade V, n = 9 (4.4%). 47 patients (22.8%) required immediate surgery (OM). More than 5 units of red cell transfusions (odds ratio [OR] 13.72, P < 0.001), a Glasgow Coma Scale < 11 (OR 9.88, P = 0.009) and age ? 55 years (OR 3.29, P = 0.038) were associated with primary OM. 159 patients (77.2%) qualified for a non-surgical approach (NOM), which was successful in 89.9% (143/159). The overall splenic salvage rate amounted to 69.4% (143/206). Multiple logistic regression analysis found age ? 40 years to be the only factor significantly and independently related to the failure of NOM (OR 13.58, P = 0.001). Conclusion: Advanced age is associated with an increased failure rate of NOM in patients with blunt splenic injuries.

Robust accelerated failure time regression

Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

Functional and histopathological identification of the respiratory failure in a DMSXL transgenic mouse model of myotonic dystrophy.

Acute and chronic respiratory failure is one of the major and potentially life-threatening features in individuals with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1). Despite several clinical demonstrations showing respiratory problems in DM1 patients, the mechanisms are still not completely understood. This study was designed to investigate whether the DMSXL transgenic mouse model for DM1 exhibits respiratory disorders and, if so, to identify the pathological changes underlying these respiratory problems. Using pressure plethysmography, we assessed the breathing function in control mice and DMSXL mice generated after large expansions of the CTG repeat in successive generations of DM1 transgenic mice. Statistical analysis of breathing function measurements revealed a significant decrease in the most relevant respiratory parameters in DMSXL mice, indicating impaired respiratory function. Histological and morphometric analysis showed pathological changes in diaphragmatic muscle of DMSXL mice, characterized by an increase in the percentage of type I muscle fibers, the presence of central nuclei, partial denervation of end-plates (EPs) and a significant reduction in their size, shape complexity and density of acetylcholine receptors, all of which reflect a possible breakdown in communication between the diaphragmatic muscles fibers and the nerve terminals. Diaphragm muscle abnormalities were accompanied by an accumulation of mutant DMPK RNA foci in muscle fiber nuclei. Moreover, in DMSXL mice, the unmyelinated phrenic afferents are significantly lower. Also in these mice, significant neuronopathy was not detected in either cervical phrenic motor neurons or brainstem respiratory neurons. Because EPs are involved in the transmission of action potentials and the unmyelinated phrenic afferents exert a modulating influence on the respiratory drive, the pathological alterations affecting these structures might underlie the respiratory impairment detected in DMSXL mice. Understanding mechanisms of respiratory deficiency should guide pharmaceutical and clinical research towards better therapy for the respiratory deficits associated with DM1.

Renal transplantation following aorto-iliac reconstruction is a safe a strategy

Introduction: Renal transplantation is considered the treatment of choice for end-stage renal disease. However, the association of occlusive aorto-iliac disease and chronic renal failure is frequent and aorto-iliac reconstruction may be necessary prior to renal transplantation. This retrospective study reviews the results of this operative strategy.Material and Methods: Between January 2001 and June 2010, 309 patients underwent renal transplantation at our institution and 8 patients had prior aorto-iliac reconstruction using prosthetic material. There were 6 men and 2 women with a median age of 62 years (range 51-70). Five aorto-bifemoral and 2 aorto-bi-iliac bypasses were performed for stage II (n=5), stage IV (n=1) and aortic aneurysm (n=1). In one patient, iliac kissing stents and an ilio-femoral bypass were implanted. 4 cadaveric and 4 living donor renal transplantations were performed with an interval of 2 months to 10 years after revascularization.The results were analysed with respect of graft and patients survival. Differences between groups were tested by the log rank method.Results: No complications and no death occurred in the post-operative period. All bypasses remained patent during follow-up. The median time of post transplantation follow-up was 46 months for all patients and 27 months for patients with prior revascularization. In the revascularized group and control group, the graft and patient survival at 1 year were respectively 100%/96%, 100%/99% and at 5 years 86%/86%, 86%/94%, without significant differences between both groups.Discussion: Our results suggest that renal transplantation following prior aorto-iliac revascularisation with prosthetic material is safe and effective. Patients with end-stage renal disease and concomitant aorto-iliac disease should therefore be considered for renal transplantation. However, caution in the interpretation of the results is indicated due to the small sample size of our study.

Genetic variation in IL28B is associated with chronic hepatitis C and treatment failure: a genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) induces chronic infection in 50% to 80% of infected persons; approximately 50% of these do not respond to therapy. We performed a genome-wide association study to screen for host genetic determinants of HCV persistence and response to therapy. METHODS: The analysis included 1362 individuals: 1015 with chronic hepatitis C and 347 who spontaneously cleared the virus (448 were coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]). Responses to pegylated interferon alfa and ribavirin were assessed in 465 individuals. Associations between more than 500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and outcomes were assessed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Chronic hepatitis C was associated with SNPs in the IL28B locus, which encodes the antiviral cytokine interferon lambda. The rs8099917 minor allele was associated with progression to chronic HCV infection (odds ratio [OR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74-3.06; P = 6.07 x 10(-9)). The association was observed in HCV mono-infected (OR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.64-3.79; P = 1.96 x 10(-5)) and HCV/HIV coinfected individuals (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.47-3.18; P = 8.24 x 10(-5)). rs8099917 was also associated with failure to respond to therapy (OR, 5.19; 95% CI, 2.90-9.30; P = 3.11 x 10(-8)), with the strongest effects in patients with HCV genotype 1 or 4. This risk allele was identified in 24% of individuals with spontaneous HCV clearance, 32% of chronically infected patients who responded to therapy, and 58% who did not respond (P = 3.2 x 10(-10)). Resequencing of IL28B identified distinct haplotypes that were associated with the clinical phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: The association of the IL28B locus with natural and treatment-associated control of HCV indicates the importance of innate immunity and interferon lambda in the pathogenesis of HCV infection.

Angiotensin II favors progression to heart failure in diabetic hearts: role of myocardial fatty acid oxidation downregulation

Purpose: Diabetic myocardium is particularly vulnerable to develop heart failure in response to chronic stress conditions including hypertension or myocardial infarction. We have recently observed that angiotensin II (Ang II)-mediated downregulation of the fatty acid oxidation pathway favors occurrence of heart failure by myocardial accumulation of lipids (lipotoxicity). Because diabetic heart is exposed to high levels of circulating fatty acid, we determined whether insulin resistance favors development of heart failure in mice with Ang II-mediated myocardial remodeling.Methods: To study the combined effect of diabetes and Ang II-induced heart remodeling, we generated leptin-deficient/insulin resistant (Lepob/ob) mice with cardiac targeted overexpression of angiotensinogen (TGAOGN). Left ventricular (LV) failure was indicated by pulmonary congestion (lung weight/tibial length>+2SD of wild-type mice). Myocardial metabolism and function were assessed during in vitro isolated working heart perfusion.Results: Forty-eight percent of TGAOGN mice without insulin resistance exhibited pulmonary congestion at the age of 6 months associated with increased myocardial BNP expression (+375% compared with WT) and reduced LV power (developed pressure x cardiac output; -15%). The proportion of mice presenting heart failure was markedly increased to 71% in TGAOGN mice with insulin resistance (TGAOGN/Lepob/ob). TGAOGN/Lepob/ob mice with heart failure exhibited further increase of BNP compared with failing non-diabetic TGAOGN mice (+146%) and further reduction of cardiac power (-59%). Mice with insulin resistance alone (Lepob/ob) did not exhibit signs of heart failure or LV dysfunction. Myocardial fatty acid oxidation measured during in vitro perfusion was markedly increased in non-failing hearts from Lepob/ob mice (+380% compared with WT) and glucose oxidation decreased (-72%). In contrast, fatty acid and glucose oxidation did not differ from Lepob/ob mice in hearts from TGAOGN/Lepob/ob mice without heart failure. However, both fatty acid and glucose oxidation were markedly decreased (-47% and -48%, respectively, compared with WT/Lepob/+) in failing hearts from TGAOGN/Lepob/ob mice. Reduction of fatty acid oxidation was associated with marked reduction of protein expression of a number of regulatory enzymes implied in fatty acid oxidation.Conclusions: Insulin resistance favors the progression to heart failure during chronic exposure of the myocardium to Ang II. Our results are compatible with a role of Ang II-mediated downregulation of fatty acid oxidation, potentially promoting lipotoxicity.

Structural analysis of Turtle mountain (Alberta) using digital elevation model: Toward a progressive failure

In 1903, the eastern slope of Turtle Mountain (Alberta) was affected by a 30 M m3-rockslide named Frank Slide that resulted in more than 70 casualties. Assuming that the main discontinuity sets, including bedding, control part of the slope morphology, the structural features of Turtle Mountain were investigated using a digital elevation model (DEM). Using new landscape analysis techniques, we have identified three main joint and fault sets. These results are in agreement with those sets identified through field observations. Landscape analysis techniques, using a DEM, confirm and refine the most recent geology model of the Frank Slide. The rockslide was initiated along bedding and a fault at the base of the slope and propagated up slope by a regressive process following a surface composed of pre-existing discontinuities. The DEM analysis also permits the identification of important geological structures along the 1903 slide scar. Based on the so called Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) an estimation was made of the present unstable volumes in the main scar delimited by the cracks, and around the south area of the scar (South Peak). The SLBL is a method permitting a geometric interpretation of the failure surface based on a DEM. Finally we propose a failure mechanism permitting the progressive failure of the rock mass that considers gentle dipping wedges (30°). The prisms or wedges defined by two discontinuity sets permit the creation of a failure surface by progressive failure. Such structures are more commonly observed in recent rockslides. This method is efficient and is recommended as a preliminary analysis prior to field investigation.

Optimized venous return with a self-expanding cannula: from computational fluid dynamics to clinical application.

The Smart canula concept allows for collapsed cannula insertion, and self-expansion within a vein of the body. (A) Computational fluid dynamics, and (B) bovine experiments (76+/-3.8 kg) were performed for comparative analyses, prior to (C) the first clinical application. For an 18F access, a given flow of 4 l/min (A) resulted in a pressure drop of 49 mmHg for smart cannula versus 140 mmHg for control. The corresponding Reynolds numbers are 680 versus 1170, respectively. (B) For an access of 28F, the maximal flow for smart cannula was 5.8+/-0.5 l/min versus 4.0+/-0.1 l/min for standard (P<0.0001), for 24F 5.5+/-0.6 l/min versus 3.2+/-0.4 l/min (P<0.0001), and for 20F 4.1+/-0.3 l/min versus 1.6+/-0.3 l/min (P<0.0001). The flow obtained with the smart cannula was 270+/-45% (20F), 172+/-26% (24F), and 134+/-13% (28F) of standard (one-way ANOVA, P=0.014). (C) First clinical application (1.42 m2) with a smart cannula showed 3.55 l/min (100% predicted) without additional fluids. All three assessment steps confirm the superior performance of the smart cannula design.

Serum Leptin Concentration, Body Mass Index and Incident Heart Failure: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Leptin is produced primarily by adipocytes. Although originally associated with the central regulation of satiety and energy metabolism, increasing evidence indicates that leptin may be an important factor for congestive heart faire (CHF). In the study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that leptin may influence CHF pathophysiology via a pathway of increasing body mass index (BMI). Methods: We studied 2,389 elderly participants aged 70 and older (M; 1161, F: 1228) without CHF and with serum leptin measures at the Health Aging, and Body Composition study. We analyzed the association between serum leptin level and risk of incident CHF using Cox hazard proportional regression models. Elevated leptin level was defined as more than the highest quartile (Q4) of leptin distribution in the total sample for each gender. Adjusted-covariates included demographic, behavior, lipid and inflammation variables (partially-adjusted models), and further included BMI (fully-adjusted models). Results: In a mean 9-year follow-up, 316 participants (13.2%) developed CHF. The partially-adjusted models indicated that men and women with elevated serum leptin levels (>=9.89 ng/ml in men and >=25 ng/ml in women) had significantly higher risks of developing CHF than those with leptin level of less than Q4. The adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident CHF was 1.49 (1.04 -2.13) in men and 1.71 (1.12 -2.58) in women. However, these associations became non-significant after adjustment for including BMI for each gender. The fully-adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) were 1.43 (0.94 -2.18) in men and 1.24 (0.77-1.99) in women. Conclusion: Subjects with elevated leptin levels have a higher risk of CHF. The study supports the hypothesis that the influence of leptin level on risk of CHF may be through a pathway related to increasing BMI.

Options chirurgicates pour l'insuffisance cardiaque terminale [Surgical options for terminal heart failure]

Terminal heart failure can be the cause or the result of major dysfunctions of the organisms. Although, the outcome of the natural history is the same in both situations, it is of prime importance to differentiate the two, as only heart failure as the primary cause allows for successful mechanical circulatory support as bridge to transplantation or towards recovery. Various objective parameters allow for the establishment of the diagnosis of terminal heart failure despite optimal medical treatment. A cardiac index <2.0 l/min, and a mixed venous oxygen saturation <60%, in combination with progressive renal failure, should trigger a diagnostic work-up in order to identify cardiac defects that can be corrected or to list the patient for transplantation with/without mechanical circulatory support.

Transcriptional response to cardiac injury in the zebrafish: systematic identification of genes with highly concordant activity across in vivo models.

BACKGROUND: Zebrafish is a clinically-relevant model of heart regeneration. Unlike mammals, it has a remarkable heart repair capacity after injury, and promises novel translational applications. Amputation and cryoinjury models are key research tools for understanding injury response and regeneration in vivo. An understanding of the transcriptional responses following injury is needed to identify key players of heart tissue repair, as well as potential targets for boosting this property in humans. RESULTS: We investigated amputation and cryoinjury in vivo models of heart damage in the zebrafish through unbiased, integrative analyses of independent molecular datasets. To detect genes with potential biological roles, we derived computational prediction models with microarray data from heart amputation experiments. We focused on a top-ranked set of genes highly activated in the early post-injury stage, whose activity was further verified in independent microarray datasets. Next, we performed independent validations of expression responses with qPCR in a cryoinjury model. Across in vivo models, the top candidates showed highly concordant responses at 1 and 3 days post-injury, which highlights the predictive power of our analysis strategies and the possible biological relevance of these genes. Top candidates are significantly involved in cell fate specification and differentiation, and include heart failure markers such as periostin, as well as potential new targets for heart regeneration. For example, ptgis and ca2 were overexpressed, while usp2a, a regulator of the p53 pathway, was down-regulated in our in vivo models. Interestingly, a high activity of ptgis and ca2 has been previously observed in failing hearts from rats and humans. CONCLUSIONS: We identified genes with potential critical roles in the response to cardiac damage in the zebrafish. Their transcriptional activities are reproducible in different in vivo models of cardiac injury.

Which subgroup of patients with rheumatoid arthritis benefits from switching to rituximab versus alternative anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents after previous failure of an anti-TNF agent?

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with an inadequate response to TNF antagonists (aTNFs) may switch to an alternative aTNF or start treatment from a different class of drugs, such as rituximab (RTX). It remains unclear in which clinical settings these therapeutic strategies offer most benefit. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the effectiveness of RTX versus alternative aTNFs on RA disease activity in different subgroups of patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of patients with RA who discontinued at least one aTNF and subsequently received either RTX or an alternative aTNF, nested within the Swiss RA registry (SCQM-RA) was carried out. The primary outcome, longitudinal improvement in 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28), was analysed using multivariate regression models for longitudinal data and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 318 patients with RA included; 155 received RTX and 163 received an alternative aTNF. The relative benefit of RTX varied with the type of prior aTNF failure: when the motive for switching was ineffectiveness to previous aTNFs, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was significantly better with RTX than with an alternative aTNF (p = 0.03; at 6 months, -1.34 (95% CI -1.54 to -1.15) vs -0.93 (95% CI -1.28 to -0.59), respectively). When the motive for switching was other causes, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was similar for RTX and alternative aTNFs (p = 0.40). These results were not significantly modified by the number of previous aTNF failures, the type of aTNF switches, or the presence of co-treatment with a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. CONCLUSION: This observational study suggests that in patients with RA who have stopped a previous aTNF treatment because of ineffectiveness changing to RTX is more effective than switching to an alternative aTNF.

Low-frequency drug-resistant HIV-1 and risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART: a multicohort European case-control study using centralized ultrasensitive 454 pyrosequencing.

OBJECTIVES: It is still debated if pre-existing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (MVs) affect the virological outcomes of first-line NNRTI-containing ART. METHODS: This Europe-wide case-control study included ART-naive subjects infected with drug-susceptible HIV-1 as revealed by population sequencing, who achieved virological suppression on first-line ART including one NNRTI. Cases experienced virological failure and controls were subjects from the same cohort whose viraemia remained suppressed at a matched time since initiation of ART. Blinded, centralized 454 pyrosequencing with parallel bioinformatic analysis in two laboratories was used to identify MVs in the 1%-25% frequency range. ORs of virological failure according to MV detection were estimated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty samples (76 cases and 184 controls), mostly subtype B (73.5%), were used for the analysis. Identical MVs were detected in the two laboratories. 31.6% of cases and 16.8% of controls harboured pre-existing MVs. Detection of at least one MV versus no MVs was associated with an increased risk of virological failure (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.35-5.60, P = 0.005); similar associations were observed for at least one MV versus no NRTI MVs (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 0.76-6.77, P = 0.140) and at least one MV versus no NNRTI MVs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12-5.18, P = 0.024). A dose-effect relationship between virological failure and mutational load was found. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing MVs more than double the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART.