War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Validation study of the French version of the observer-rater scales measuring coping and cognitive errors (CE-CAP) on a non-clinical population

This study examined the validity and reliability of the French version of two observer-rated measures developed to assess cognitive errors (cognitive errors rating system [CERS]) [6] and coping action patterns (coping action patterns rating system [CAPRS]) [22,24]. The CE measures 14 cognitive errors, broken down according to their valence positive or negative (see the definitions by A.T. Beck), and the CAP measures 12 coping categories, based on an comprehensive review literature, each broken down into three levels of action (affective, behavioural, cognitive). Thirty (N = 30) subjects recruited in a community sample participated in the study. They were interviewed according to a standardized clinical protocol: these interviews were transcribed and analysed with both observer-rated systems. Results showed that the inter-rater reliability of the two measures is good and that their internal validity is satisfactory, due to a non-significant canonical correlation between CAP and CE. With regard to discriminant validity, we found a non-significant canonical correlation between CAPRS and CISS, one of most widely used self-report questionnaire measuring coping. The same can be said for the correlation with a self-report questionnaire measuring symptoms (SCL-90-R). These results confirm the absence of confounds in the assessment of cognitive errors and of coping as assessed by these observer-rated scales and add an argument in favour of the French validation of the CE-CAP rating scales. (C) 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Reproductive allocation strategies: a long-term study on proximate factors and temporal adjustments in a viviparous lizard.

Optimisation of reproductive investment is crucial for Darwinian fitness, and detailed long-term studies are especially suited to unravel reproductive allocation strategies. Allocation strategies depend on the timing of resource acquisition, the timing of resource allocation, and trade-offs between different life-history traits. A distinction can be made between capital breeders that fuel reproduction with stored resources and income breeders that use recently acquired resources. In capital breeders, but not in income breeders, energy allocation may be decoupled from energy acquisition. Here, we tested the influence of extrinsic (weather conditions) and intrinsic (female characteristics) factors during energy storage, vitellogenesis and early gestation on reproductive investment, including litter mass, litter size, offspring mass and the litter size and offspring mass trade-off. We used data from a long-term study of the viviparous lizard, Lacerta (Zootoca) vivipara. In terms of extrinsic factors, rainfall during vitellogenesis was positively correlated with litter size and mass, but temperature did not affect reproductive investment. With respect to intrinsic factors, litter size and mass were positively correlated with current body size and postpartum body condition of the previous year, but negatively with parturition date of the previous year. Offspring mass was negatively correlated with litter size, and the strength of this trade-off decreased with the degree of individual variation in resource acquisition, which confirms theoretical predictions. The combined effects of past intrinsic factors and current weather conditions suggest that common lizards combine both recently acquired and stored resources to fuel reproduction. The effect of past energy store points out a trade-off between current and future reproduction.

Simultaneous EEG-fMRI at ultra-high field: Artifact prevention and safety assessment.

The simultaneous recording of scalp electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can provide unique insights into the dynamics of human brain function, and the increased functional sensitivity offered by ultra-high field fMRI opens exciting perspectives for the future of this multimodal approach. However, simultaneous recordings are susceptible to various types of artifacts, many of which scale with magnetic field strength and can seriously compromise both EEG and fMRI data quality in recordings above 3T. The aim of the present study was to implement and characterize an optimized setup for simultaneous EEG-fMRI in humans at 7T. The effects of EEG cable length and geometry for signal transmission between the cap and amplifiers were assessed in a phantom model, with specific attention to noise contributions from the MR scanner coldheads. Cable shortening (down to 12cm from cap to amplifiers) and bundling effectively reduced environment noise by up to 84% in average power and 91% in inter-channel power variability. Subject safety was assessed and confirmed via numerical simulations of RF power distribution and temperature measurements on a phantom model, building on the limited existing literature at ultra-high field. MRI data degradation effects due to the EEG system were characterized via B0 and B1(+) field mapping on a human volunteer, demonstrating important, although not prohibitive, B1 disruption effects. With the optimized setup, simultaneous EEG-fMRI acquisitions were performed on 5 healthy volunteers undergoing two visual paradigms: an eyes-open/eyes-closed task, and a visual evoked potential (VEP) paradigm using reversing-checkerboard stimulation. EEG data exhibited clear occipital alpha modulation and average VEPs, respectively, with concomitant BOLD signal changes. On a single-trial level, alpha power variations could be observed with relative confidence on all trials; VEP detection was more limited, although statistically significant responses could be detected in more than 50% of trials for every subject. Overall, we conclude that the proposed setup is well suited for simultaneous EEG-fMRI at 7T.

Brain spectrin isoforms during development of chick dorsal root ganglion cells in vivo and in vitro

Brain spectrin is one of the major cytoskeletal proteins associated with the plasma membrane. In many tissues this protein occurs in a variety of isoforms, for which at least three have been described in the brain: i) brain spectrin 240/235 is localized in neurons most prominently in axons and is present early during brain development. ii) Brain spectrin 240/235E is immunologicaly related to erythrocyte spectrin and restricted to somato-dendritic regions in neurons and to glia. It appears late in brain development. iii) A third form, brain spectrin 240/ 235A, is found exclusively in astrocytes. In this study we have investigated the appearance and distribution of brain spectrins 240/235 and 240/235E during embryonic chick dorsal root ganglia development in vivo and in vitro. This system provides a unique model due to the lack of dendrites on developing sensory neurons. Both isoforms first appeared at embryonic day 6. Brain spectrin 240/235 increased transiently around embryonic day 10 and 14, and was first expressed in ventrolateral neurons. It was localized abundantly in perikarya and their axons. This somato-axonal distribution pattern found in situ was also observed in vitro. In contrast, brain spectrin 240/235E only slightly increased between E6 and E15 and remained unchanged thereafter. It was localized mainly in small neurons of the mediodorsal area, where it was found as punctate staining in the cytoplasm, forming first a nuclear cap and in subsequent stages becoming distributed evenly throughout cytoplasm. This brain spectrin isoform was absent from axons, both in situ and in vitro. In conclusion, this study suggests i) that brain spectrin 240/235 may contribute towards the outgrowth, elongation and possibly maintenance of axonal processes, ii) that brain spcctrin 240/235E could be involved in the stablization of the cytoarchilecture of cell bodies in a sclected population of ganglion cells, and iii) that isoform expression of brain spectrin 240/235E in DRG cells may depend on environmental factors.

The INTERNORM project : bridging two worlds of expert- and layknowledge in standardization

This paper presents a pilot project to reinforce participatory practices in standardization. The INTERNORM project is funded by the University of Lausanne, Switzerland. It aims to create an interactive knowledge center based on the sharing of academic skills and the experiences accumulated by the civil society, especially consumer associations, environmental associations and trade unions to strengthen the participatory process of standardization. The first objective of the project is action-oriented: INTERNORM provides a common knowledge pool supporting the participation of civil society actors to international standard-setting activities by bringing them together with academic experts in working groups and by providing logistic and financial support to their participation to meetings of national and international technical committees. The second objective of the project is analytical: the standardization action initiated through INTERNORM provides a research field for a better understanding of the participatory dynamics underpinning international standardization. The paper presents three incentives that explain civil society (non-)involvement in standardization that try to overcome conventional resource-based hypotheses: an operational incentive, related to the use of standards in the selective goods provided by associations to their membership; a thematic incentive, provided by the setting of priorities by strategic committees created in some standardization organization; a rhetorical incentive, related to the discursive resource that civil society concerns offers to the different stakeholders.

Comparative genomic and phylogeographic analysis of Mycobacterium leprae.

Reductive evolution and massive pseudogene formation have shaped the 3.31-Mb genome of Mycobacterium leprae, an unculturable obligate pathogen that causes leprosy in humans. The complete genome sequence of M. leprae strain Br4923 from Brazil was obtained by conventional methods (6x coverage), and Illumina resequencing technology was used to obtain the sequences of strains Thai53 (38x coverage) and NHDP63 (46x coverage) from Thailand and the United States, respectively. Whole-genome comparisons with the previously sequenced TN strain from India revealed that the four strains share 99.995% sequence identity and differ only in 215 polymorphic sites, mainly SNPs, and by 5 pseudogenes. Sixteen interrelated SNP subtypes were defined by genotyping both extant and extinct strains of M. leprae from around the world. The 16 SNP subtypes showed a strong geographical association that reflects the migration patterns of early humans and trade routes, with the Silk Road linking Europe to China having contributed to the spread of leprosy.

The INTERNORM Project: Bridging Two Worlds of Expert- and Lay-Knowledge in Standardization

This paper presents a pilot project to reinforce participatory practices in standardization. The INTERNORM project creates an interactive knowledge center based on the sharing of academic skills and experiences accumulated by the civil society, especially consumer associations, environmental associations and trade unions to strengthen the participatory process of standardization. The first objective of the project is action-oriented: INTERNORM provides a common knowledge pool supporting the participation of civil society actors to international standard-setting activities by bringing them together with academic experts in working groups and providing logistic and financial support to their participation in meetings of national and international technical committees. The second objective is analytical: the standardization action provides a research field for a better understanding of the participatory dynamics underpinning international standardization. This paper presents three incentives that explain civil society (non-)involvement in standardization that overcome conventional resource-based hypotheses: an operational incentive related to the use of standards in the selective goods provided by associations to their membership; a thematic incentive provided by the setting of priorities by strategic committees created in some standardization organization; and a rhetorical incentive related to the discursive resource that civil society concerns offers to the different stakeholders.

Conformity, upstream reciprocity and social diversity: secondary mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation

Cooperation is ubiquitous in nature: genes cooperate in genomes, cells in muti- cellular organims, and individuals in societies. In humans, division of labor and trade are key elements of most known societies, where social life is regulated by- moral systems specifying rights and duties often enforced by third party punish¬ment. Over the last decades, several primary mechanisms, such as kin selection, direct and indirect reciprocity, have been advanced to explain the evolution of cooperation from a naturalistic approach. In this thesis, I focus on the study of three secondary mechanisms which, although insufficient to allow for the evo¬lution of cooperation, have been hypothesized to further promote it when they are linked to proper primary mechanisms: conformity (the tendency to imitate common behaviors), upstream reciprocity (the tendency to help somebody once help has been received from somebody else) and social diversity (heterogeneous social contexts). I make use of mathematical and computational models in the formal framework of evolutionary game theory in order to investigate the theoret¬ical conditions under which conformity, upstream reciprocity and social diversity are able to raise the levels of cooperation attained in evolving populations. - La coopération est ubiquitaire dans la nature: les gènes coopèrent dans les génomes, les cellules dans les organismes muticellulaires, et les organismes dans les sociétés. Chez les humains, la division du travail et le commerce sont des éléments centraux de la plupart des sociétés connues, où la vie sociale est régie par des systèmes moraux établissant des droits et des devoirs, souvent renforcés par la punition. Au cours des dernières décennies, plusieurs mécanismes pri¬maires, tels que la sélection de parentèle et les réciprocités directe et indirecte, ont été avancés pour expliquer l'évolution de la coopération d'un point de vue nat¬uraliste. Dans cette thèse, nous nous concentrons sur l'étude de trois mécanismes secondaires qui, bien qu'insuffisants pour permettre l'évolution de la coopération, sont capables de la promouvoir davantage s'ils sont liés aux mécanismes primaires appropriés: la conformité (tendance à imiter des comportements en commun), la 'réciprocité en amont' (tendance à aider quelqu'un après avoir reçu l'aide de quelqu'un d'autre) et la diversité sociale (contextes sociaux hétérogènes). Nous faisons usage de modèles mathématiques et informatiques dans le cadre formel de la théorie des jeux évolutionnaires afin d'examiner les conditions théoriques dans lesquelles la conformité, la 'réciprocité en amont' et la diversité sociale sont capables d'élever le niveau de coopération des populations en évolution.

Morph-specific genetic and environmental variation in innate and acquired immune response in a color polymorphic raptor.

Genetic color polymorphism is widespread in nature. There is an increasing interest in understanding the adaptive value of heritable color variation and trade-off resolution by differently colored individuals. Melanin-based pigmentation is often associated with variation in many different life history traits. These associations have recently been suggested to be the outcome of pleiotropic effects of the melanocortin system. Although pharmacological research supports that MC1R, a gene with a major role in vertebrate pigmentation, has important immunomodulatory effects, evidence regarding pleiotropy at MC1R in natural populations is still under debate. We experimentally assessed whether MC1R-based pigmentation covaries with both inflammatory and humoral immune responses in the color polymorphic Eleonora's falcon. By means of a cross-fostering experiment, we disentangled potential genetic effects from environmental effects on the covariation between coloration and immunity. Variation in both immune responses was primarily due to genetic factors via the nestlings' MC1R-related color genotype/phenotype, although environmental effects via the color morph of the foster father also had an influence. Overall, dark nestlings had lower immune responses than pale ones. The effect of the color morph of the foster father was also high, but in the opposite direction, and nestlings raised by dark eumelanic foster fathers had higher immune responses than those raised by pale foster fathers. Although we cannot completely discard alternative explanations, our results suggest that MC1R might influence immunity in this species. Morph-specific variation in immunity as well as pathogen pressure may therefore contribute to the long-term maintenance of genetic color polymorphism in natural populations.

Nasopharyngeal carriage of individual Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes during pediatric radiologically confirmed community acquired pneumonia following PCV7 introduction in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a serious cause of morbidity among children in developed countries. The real impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal pneumonia is difficult to assess accurately. METHODS: Children aged ≤16 years with clinical and radiological pneumonia were enrolled in a multicenter prospective study. Children aged ≤16 years admitted for a minor elective surgery was recruited as controls. Nasopharyngeal samples for PCR serotyping of S. pneumoniae were obtained in both groups. Informations on age, gender, PCV7 vaccination status, day care/school attendance, siblings, tobacco exposure were collected. RESULTS: In children with CAP (n=236), 54% of the nasopharyngeal swabs were PCR-positive for S. pneumoniae compared to 32% in controls (n=105) (p=0.003). Serotype 19A was the most common pneumococcal serotype carried in children with CAP (13%) and in controls (15%). Most common serotypes were non-vaccine types (39.4% for CAP and 47.1% for controls) and serotypes included only in PCV13 (32.3% for CAP and 23.5% for controls). There was no significant difference in vaccine serotype distribution between the two groups. In fully vaccinated children with CAP, the proportion of serotypes carried only in PCV13 was higher (51.4%) than in partially vaccinated or non vaccinated children (27.6% and 28.6% respectively, p=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Two to 4 years following introduction of PCV7, predominant S. pneumoniae serotypes carried in children with CAP were non PCV7 serotypes, and the 6 new serotypes included in PCV13 accounted for 51.4% of carried serotypes in fully vaccinated children.

Chronic malnutrition favours smaller critical size for metamorphosis initiation in Drosophila melanogaster.

Critical size at which metamorphosis is initiated represents an important checkpoint in insect development. Here, we use experimental evolution in Drosophila melanogaster to test the long-standing hypothesis that larval malnutrition should favour a smaller critical size. We report that six fly populations subject to 112 generations of laboratory natural selection on an extremely poor larval food evolved an 18% smaller critical size (compared to six unselected control populations). Thus, even though critical size is not plastic with respect to nutrition, smaller critical size can evolve as an adaptation to nutritional stress. We also demonstrate that this reduction in critical size (rather than differences in growth rate) mediates a trade-off in body weight that the selected populations experience on standard food, on which they show a 15-17% smaller adult body weight. This illustrates how developmental mechanisms that control life history may shape constraints and trade-offs in life history evolution.

Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change

Climate change affects the rate of insect invasions as well as the abundance, distribution and impacts of such invasions on a global scale. Among the principal analytical approaches to predicting and understanding future impacts of biological invasions are Species Distribution Models (SDMs), typically in the form of correlative Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). An underlying assumption of ENMs is that species-environment relationships remain preserved during extrapolations in space and time, although this is widely criticised. The semi-mechanistic modelling platform, CLIMEX, employs a top-down approach using species ecophysiological traits and is able to avoid some of the issues of extrapolation, making it highly applicable to investigating biological invasions in the context of climate change. The tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) comprise some of the most successful invasive species and serious economic pests around the world. Here we project 12 tephritid species CLIMEX models into future climate scenarios to examine overall patterns of climate suitability and forecast potential distributional changes for this group. We further compare the aggregate response of the group against species-specific responses. We then consider additional drivers of biological invasions to examine how invasion potential is influenced by climate, fruit production and trade indices. Considering the group of tephritid species examined here, climate change is predicted to decrease global climate suitability and to shift the cumulative distribution poleward. However, when examining species-level patterns, the predominant directionality of range shifts for 11 of the 12 species is eastward. Most notably, management will need to consider regional changes in fruit fly species invasion potential where high fruit production, trade indices and predicted distributions of these flies overlap.