Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Secondary effects of catalytic diesel particulate filters: copper-induced formation of PCDD/Fs.

Potential risks of a secondary formation of polychlorinated dibenzodioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs) were assessed for two cordierite-based, wall-through diesel particulate filters (DPFs) for which soot combustion was either catalyzed with an iron- or a copper-based fuel additive. A heavy duty diesel engine was used as test platform, applying the eight-stage ISO 8178/4 C1 cycle. DPF applications neither affected the engine performance, nor did they increase NO, NO2, CO, and CO2 emissions. The latter is a metric for fuel consumption. THC emissions decreased by about 40% when deploying DPFs. PCDD/F emissions, with a focus on tetra- to octachlorinated congeners, were compared under standard and worst case conditions (enhanced chlorine uptake). The iron-catalyzed DPF neither increased PCDD/F emissions, nor did it change the congener pattern, even when traces of chlorine became available. In case of copper, PCDD/F emissions increased by up to 3 orders of magnitude from 22 to 200 to 12 700 pg I-TEQ/L with fuels of < 2, 14, and 110 microg/g chlorine, respectively. Mainly lower chlorinated DD/Fs were formed. Based on these substantial effects on PCDD/F emissions, the copper-catalyzed DPF system was not approved for workplace applications, whereas the iron system fulfilled all the specifications of the Swiss procedures for DPF approval (VERT).

Wireless GPS-based phase-locked synchronization system for outdoor environment.

Synchronization of data coming from different sources is of high importance in biomechanics to ensure reliable analyses. This synchronization can either be performed through hardware to obtain perfect matching of data, or post-processed digitally. Hardware synchronization can be achieved using trigger cables connecting different devices in many situations; however, this is often impractical, and sometimes impossible in outdoors situations. The aim of this paper is to describe a wireless system for outdoor use, allowing synchronization of different types of - potentially embedded and moving - devices. In this system, each synchronization device is composed of: (i) a GPS receiver (used as time reference), (ii) a radio transmitter, and (iii) a microcontroller. These components are used to provide synchronized trigger signals at the desired frequency to the measurement device connected. The synchronization devices communicate wirelessly, are very lightweight, battery-operated and thus very easy to set up. They are adaptable to every measurement device equipped with either trigger input or recording channel. The accuracy of the system was validated using an oscilloscope. The mean synchronization error was found to be 0.39 μs and pulses are generated with an accuracy of <2 μs. The system provides synchronization accuracy about two orders of magnitude better than commonly used post-processing methods, and does not suffer from any drift in trigger generation.

Early Tithonian Saturnalidae (Radiolaria) from the Solnhofen area (Southern Franconian Alb, Southern Germany)

In order to complete the study of the very rich early Tithonian (Hybonoticeras hybonotum Zone) radiolarian fauna from the Muhlheim Member of the Mornsheim Formation outcropping in the Solnhofen area, the taxa of the family Saturnalidae are described. Although rather rare, the Saturnalidae of this member contain 14 species, ten of which are new. These species belong to four genera, one of which is new (Moebicircus n. gen.), and two subfamilies (Hexasaturnalinae and Saturnalinae). The taxonomy at generic level of these late Jurassic radiolarians is founded on the basis of the position of the blades along the ring and number and morphology of the spines. Type of spines (simple or forked) has either species level value or none, depending on species. Special attention was given to anomalies, which sometimes are rather frequent, since they can give information of paleobiological and paleoecological orders. Among them frequent cases of open ring and additional spines with Dicerosaturnalis and Siamese twins skeletons with Spongosaturninus and Dicerosaturnalis are to be noted. The authors hope that this new taxonomy will give a better image of the evolution and radiation of the Saturnalidae during the Tithonian.

On the fate of sexual traits under asexuality.

Environmental shifts and life-history changes may result in formerly adaptive traits becoming non-functional or maladaptive. In the absence of pleiotropy and other constraints, such traits may decay as a consequence of neutral mutation accumulation or selective processes, highlighting the importance of natural selection for adaptations. A suite of traits are expected to lose their adaptive function in asexual organisms derived from sexual ancestors, and the many independent transitions to asexuality allow for comparative studies of parallel trait maintenance versus decay. In addition, because certain traits, notably male-specific traits, are usually not exposed to selection under asexuality, their decay would have to occur as a consequence of drift. Selective processes could drive the decay of traits associated with costs, which may be the case for the majority of sexual traits expressed in females. We review the fate of male and female sexual traits in 93 animal lineages characterized by asexual reproduction, covering a broad taxon range including molluscs, arachnids, diplopods, crustaceans and eleven different hexapod orders. Many asexual lineages are still able occasionally to produce males. These asexually produced males are often largely or even fully functional, revealing that major developmental pathways can remain quiescent and functional over extended time periods. By contrast, for asexual females, there is a parallel and rapid decay of sexual traits, especially of traits related to mate attraction and location, as expected given the considerable costs often associated with the expression of these traits. The level of decay of female sexual traits, in addition to asexual females being unable to fertilize their eggs, would severely impede reversals to sexual reproduction, even in recently derived asexual lineages. More generally, the parallel maintenance versus decay of different trait types across diverse asexual lineages suggests that neutral traits display little or no decay even after extended periods under relaxed selection, while extensive decay for selected traits occurs extremely quickly. These patterns also highlight that adaptations can fix rapidly in natural populations of asexual organisms, in spite of their mode of reproduction.

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.

Derivation of soil-specific streaming potential electrical parameters from hydrodynamic characteristics of partially saturated soils

Water movement in unsaturated soils gives rise to measurable electrical potential differences that are related to the flow direction and volumetric fluxes, as well as to the soil properties themselves. Laboratory and field data suggest that these so-called streaming potentials may be several orders of magnitudes larger than theoretical predictions that only consider the influence of the relative permeability and electrical conductivity on the self potential (SP) data. Recent work has improved predictions somewhat by considering how the volumetric excess charge in the pore space scales with the inverse of water saturation. We present a new theoretical approach that uses the flux-averaged excess charge, not the volumetric excess charge, to predict streaming potentials. We present relationships for how this effective excess charge varies with water saturation for typical soil properties using either the water retention or the relative permeability function. We find large differences between soil types and the predictions based on the relative permeability function display the best agreement with field data. The new relationships better explain laboratory data than previous work and allow us to predict the recorded magnitudes of the streaming potentials following a rainfall event in sandy loam, whereas previous models predict values that are three orders of magnitude too small. We suggest that the strong signals in unsaturated media can be used to gain information about fluxes (including very small ones related to film flow), but also to constrain the relative permeability function, the water retention curve, and the relative electrical conductivity function.

Immunoglobulin classes in aquatic mammals. Characterization by serologic cross-reactivity, molecular size and binding of human free secretory component.

On the basis of serologic cross-reactivity, three immunoglobulin classes homologous to human IgG, IgM and IgA were identified in two species of acquatic mammal representing the orders Cetacea (dolphin) and Pinnipedea (sea lion). Molecular size was estimated by sucrose density gradient ultracentrifugation and Sephadex G-200 chromatography, indicating a 7S IgG, 19S IgM and heterogeneous serum IgA. Human secretory component was readily bound to the IgM of both species and to an apparently lesser extent to the larger molecular size populations of IgA. No binding was observed with IgG. Several antisera specific for human γ-chains gave a single precipitin line with the sea lion IgG but when made to react with dolphin serum produced two lines, suggesting the presence of two different subclasses of IgG in this species.

Sleep structure and cardiometabolic disorders in the general population : the Hypnolaus study

Objectives: Previous studies using subjective assessments have reported associations between sleep quantity and quality and cardiometabolic disorders, but little is known regarding the associ-ations with objective sleep characteristics. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between objective sleep measure sand metabolic syndrome (MS), hypertension, diabetes and obesity. Methods: 2162 subjects (51.2% women, mean age 58,11.1) from the general population were evaluated for hypertension,diabetes, overweight/obesity and MS, and underwent a full polysom-nography (PSG). PSG measured variables included: Total sleep time(TST), percentage and time spent in slow wave sleep (SWS) and in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, sleep efficiency and arousal index(ArI) Results: In univariate analyses, MS was associated with decreased TST, SWS, REM sleep, sleep efficiency and increased ArI. After adjustment for age, gender, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, drugsthat affect sleep and depression, the ArI remained significantly higher, but the difference disappeared in subjects without significant sleep disordered breathing (SDB). Differences in sleep structure were also found according to the presence or absence of hypertension, diabetes and overweight/obesity in univariate analysis. However, these differences were attenuated after multivariate adjustment and after excluding subjects with significant SDB. Conclusions: In this population-based sample we found significant associations between sleep structure and MS, hypertension, diabetes and obesity. However, these associations were cancelled after multivariate adjustment. We conclude that normal variations in sleep contribute little if any to MS and associated disorders.

In vivo measurement of tissue oxygenation by time-resolved luminescence spectroscopy: advantageous properties of dichlorotris(1, 10-phenanthroline)-ruthenium(II) hydrate.

Measuring tissue oxygenation in vivo is of interest in fundamental biological as well as medical applications. One minimally invasive approach to assess the oxygen partial pressure in tissue (pO2) is to measure the oxygen-dependent luminescence lifetime of molecular probes. The relation between tissue pO2 and the probes' luminescence lifetime is governed by the Stern-Volmer equation. Unfortunately, virtually all oxygen-sensitive probes based on this principle induce some degree of phototoxicity. For that reason, we studied the oxygen sensitivity and phototoxicity of dichlorotris(1, 10-phenanthroline)-ruthenium(II) hydrate [Ru(Phen)] using a dedicated optical fiber-based, time-resolved spectrometer in the chicken embryo chorioallantoic membrane. We demonstrated that, after intravenous injection, Ru(Phen)'s luminescence lifetime presents an easily detectable pO2 dependence at a low drug dose (1 mg∕kg) and low fluence (120 mJ∕cm2 at 470 nm). The phototoxic threshold was found to be at 10 J∕cm2 with the same wavelength and drug dose, i.e., about two orders of magnitude larger than the fluence necessary to perform a pO2 measurement. Finally, an illustrative application of this pO2 measurement approach in a hypoxic tumor environment is presented.

Questioning the utility of RNA-DNA chimera in gene repair.

In principle, we should be glad that Eric Kmiec and his colleagues published in Science's STKE (1) a detailed experimental protocol of their gene repair method (2, 3). However, a careful reading of their contribution raises more doubts about the method. The research published in Science five years ago by Kmiec and his colleagues was said to demonstrate that chimeric RNA-DNA oligonucleotides could correct the mutation responsible for sickle cell anemia with 50% efficiency (4). Such a remarkable result prompted many laboratories to attempt to replicate the research or utilize the method on their own systems. However, if the method worked at all, which it rarely did, the achieved efficiency was usually lower by several orders of magnitude. Now, in the Science's STKE protocol, we are given crucial information about the method and why it is so important to utilize these expensive chimeric RNA-DNA constructs. In the introduction we are told that the RNA-DNA duplex is more stable than a DNA-DNA duplex and so extends the half-life of the complexes formed between the targeted DNA and the chimeric RNA-DNA oligonucleotides. This logical explanation, however, conflicts with the statement in the section entitled "Transfection with Oligonucleotides and Plasmid DNA" that Kmiec and colleagues have recently demonstrated that classical single-stranded DNA oligonucleotides with a few protective phosphothioate linkages have a "gene repair conversion frequency rivaling that of the RNA/DNA chimera". Indeed, the research cited for that result actually states that single-stranded DNA oligonucleotides are in fact several-fold more efficient (3.7-fold) than the RNA-DNA chimeric constructs (5). If that is the case, it raises the question of why Kmiec and colleagues emphasize the importance of the RNA in their original chimeric constructs. Their own new results show that modified single-stranded DNA oligonucleotides are more effective than the expensive RNA-DNA hybrids. Moreover, the current efficiency of the gene repair by RNA-DNA hybrids, according to Kmiec and colleagues in their recent paper is only 4×10-4 even after several hours of pre-selection permitting multiplification of bacterial cells with the corrected plasmid (5). This efficiency is much lower than the 50% value reported five years ago, but is assuredly much closer to the reality.

One-year survival and neurological outcome after pediatric cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

OBJECTIVE: Reported survival after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in children varies considerably. We aimed to identify predictors of 1-year survival and to assess long-term neurological status after in- or outpatient CPR. DESIGN: Retrospective review of the medical records and prospective follow-up of CPR survivors. SETTING: Tertiary care pediatric university hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS: During a 30-month period, 89 in- and outpatients received advanced CPR. Survivors of CPR were prospectively followed-up for 1 year. Neurological outcome was assessed by the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category scale (PCPC). Variables predicting 1-year survival were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. INTERVENTIONS: None. RESULTS: Seventy-one of the 89 patients were successfully resuscitated. During subsequent hospitalization do-not-resuscitate orders were issued in 25 patients. At 1 year, 48 (54%) were alive, including two of the 25 patients with out-of-hospital CPR. All patients died, who required CPR after trauma or near drowning, when CPR began >10 min after arrest or with CPR duration >60 min. Prolonged CPR (21-60 min) was compatible with survival (five of 19). At 1 year, 77% of the survivors had the same PCPC score as prior to CPR. Predictors of survival were location of resuscitation, CPR during peri- or postoperative care, and duration of resuscitation. A clinical score (0-15 points) based on these three items yielded an area under the ROC of 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: Independent determinants of long-term survival of pediatric resuscitation are location of arrest, underlying cause, and duration of CPR. Long-term survivors have little or no change in neurological status.

Insight into cross-talk between intra-amoebal pathogens.

Abstract: Background: Amoebae are phagocytic protists where genetic exchanges might take place between amoeba-resistant bacteria. These amoebal pathogens are able to escape the phagocytic behaviour of their host. They belong to different bacterial phyla and often show a larger genome size than human-infecting pathogens. This characteristic is proposed to be the result of frequent gene exchanges with other bacteria that share a sympatric lifestyle and contrasts with the genome reduction observed among strict human pathogens.Results: We sequenced the genome of a new amoebal pathogen, Legionella drancourtii, and compared its gene content to that of a Chlamydia-related bacterium, Parachlamydia acanthamoebae. Phylogenetic reconstructions identified seven potential horizontal gene transfers (HGTs) between the two amoeba-resistant bacteria, including a complete operon of four genes that encodes an ABC-type transporter. These comparisons pinpointed potential cases of gene exchange between P. acanthamoebae and Legionella pneumophila, as well as gene exchanges between other members of the Legionellales and Chlamydiales orders. Moreover, nine cases represent possible HGTs between representatives from the Legionellales or Chlamydiales and members of the Rickettsiales order.Conclusions: This study identifies numerous gene exchanges between intracellular Legionellales and Chlamydiales bacteria, which could preferentially occur within common inclusions in their amoebal hosts. Therefore it contributes to improve our knowledge on the intra-amoebal gene properties associated to their specific lifestyle.

Rapid and strong human CD8+ T cell responses to vaccination with peptide, IFA, and CpG oligodeoxynucleotide 7909.

The induction of potent CD8+ T cell responses by vaccines to fight microbes or tumors remains a major challenge, as many candidates for human vaccines have proved to be poorly immunogenic. Deoxycytidyl-deoxyguanosin oligodeoxynucleotides (CpG ODNs) trigger Toll-like receptor 9, resulting in dendritic cell maturation that can enhance immunogenicity of peptide-based vaccines in mice. We tested whether a synthetic ODN, CpG 7909, could improve human tumor antigen-specific CD8+ T cell responses. Eight HLA-A2+ melanoma patients received 4 monthly vaccinations of low-dose CpG 7909 mixed with melanoma antigen A (Melan-A; identical to MART-1) analog peptide and incomplete Freund's adjuvant. All patients exhibited rapid and strong antigen-specific T cell responses: the frequency of Melan-A-specific T cells reached over 3% of circulating CD8+ T cells. This was one order of magnitude higher than the frequency seen in 8 control patients treated similarly but without CpG and 1-3 orders of magnitude higher than that seen in previous studies with synthetic vaccines. The enhanced T cell populations consisted primarily of effector memory cells, which in part secreted IFN- and expressed granzyme B and perforin ex vivo. In vitro, T cell clones recognized and killed melanoma cells in an antigen-specific manner. Thus, CpG 7909 is an efficient vaccine adjuvant that promotes strong antigen-specific CD8+ T cell responses in humans.

Disobeying an Illegitimate Request in a Democratic or Authoritarian System

Crimes of obedience in the form of illegal or immoral acts committed in response to orders from authority occur in many contexts. In particular, under some circumstances of threats, people can easily accept restrictions upon democratic procedures. Recent studies have underlined the role of legitimacy in understanding the authority relationship and the importance of evaluating the legitimacy of the request rather than the legitimacy of the authority in preventing the rise of authoritarianism. The purpose of this study was to verify if people respond differently when an illegitimate request is put forward by a democratic or an authoritarian authority. The results on 224 subjects confirmed that people tend to be more obedient when they perceive authorities as democratic, notwithstanding the legitimacy of their requests.