The Rank Lecture: Has imaging told us anything new about human visual organisation?

The functional architecture of the occipital cortex is being studied with increasing detail. Functional and structural MR based imaging are altering views about the organisation of the human visual system. Recent advances have ranged from comparative studies with non-human primates to predictive scanning. The latter multivariate technique describes with sub-voxel resolution patterns of activity that are characteristic of specific visual experiences. One can deduce what a subject experienced visually from the pattern of cortical activity recorded. The challenge for the future is to understand visual functions in terms of cerebral computations at a mesoscopic level of description and to relate this information to electrophysiology. The principal medical application of this new knowledge has focused to a large extent on plasticity and the capacity for functional reorganisation. Crossmodality visual-sensory interactions and cross-correlations between visual and other cerebral areas in the resting state are areas of considerable current interest. The lecture will review findings over the last two decades and reflect on possible roles for imaging studies in the future.

Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the gulf region.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.

Characterization and application of two RANK-specific antibodies with different biological activities.

Antibodies play an important role in therapy and investigative biomedical research. The TNF-family member Receptor Activator of NF-κB (RANK) is known for its role in bone homeostasis and is increasingly recognized as a central player in immune regulation and epithelial cell activation. However, the study of RANK biology has been hampered by missing or insufficient characterization of high affinity tools that recognize RANK. Here, we present a careful description and comparison of two antibodies, RANK-02 obtained by phage display (Newa, 2014 [1]) and R12-31 generated by immunization (Kamijo, 2006 [2]). We found that both antibodies recognized mouse RANK with high affinity, while RANK-02 and R12-31 recognized human RANK with high and lower affinities, respectively. Using a cell apoptosis assay based on stimulation of a RANK:Fas fusion protein, and a cellular NF-κB signaling assay, we showed that R12-31 was agonist for both species. R12-31 interfered little or not at all with the binding of RANKL to RANK, in contrast to RANK-02 that efficiently prevented this interaction. Depending on the assay and species, RANK-02 was either a weak agonist or a partial antagonist of RANK. Both antibodies recognized human Langerhans cells, previously shown to express RANK, while dermal dendritic cells were poorly labeled. In vivo R12-31 agonist activity was demonstrated by its ability to induce the formation of intestinal villous microfold cells in mice. This characterization of two monoclonal antibodies should now allow better evaluation of their application as therapeutic reagents and investigative tools.

Renal transplantation following aorto-iliac reconstruction is a safe a strategy

Introduction: Renal transplantation is considered the treatment of choice for end-stage renal disease. However, the association of occlusive aorto-iliac disease and chronic renal failure is frequent and aorto-iliac reconstruction may be necessary prior to renal transplantation. This retrospective study reviews the results of this operative strategy.Material and Methods: Between January 2001 and June 2010, 309 patients underwent renal transplantation at our institution and 8 patients had prior aorto-iliac reconstruction using prosthetic material. There were 6 men and 2 women with a median age of 62 years (range 51-70). Five aorto-bifemoral and 2 aorto-bi-iliac bypasses were performed for stage II (n=5), stage IV (n=1) and aortic aneurysm (n=1). In one patient, iliac kissing stents and an ilio-femoral bypass were implanted. 4 cadaveric and 4 living donor renal transplantations were performed with an interval of 2 months to 10 years after revascularization.The results were analysed with respect of graft and patients survival. Differences between groups were tested by the log rank method.Results: No complications and no death occurred in the post-operative period. All bypasses remained patent during follow-up. The median time of post transplantation follow-up was 46 months for all patients and 27 months for patients with prior revascularization. In the revascularized group and control group, the graft and patient survival at 1 year were respectively 100%/96%, 100%/99% and at 5 years 86%/86%, 86%/94%, without significant differences between both groups.Discussion: Our results suggest that renal transplantation following prior aorto-iliac revascularisation with prosthetic material is safe and effective. Patients with end-stage renal disease and concomitant aorto-iliac disease should therefore be considered for renal transplantation. However, caution in the interpretation of the results is indicated due to the small sample size of our study.

Fecal calprotectin more accurately reflects endoscopic activity of ulcerative colitis than the Lichtiger Index, C-reactive protein, platelets, hemoglobin, and blood leukocytes.

BACKGROUND: The correlation between noninvasive markers with endoscopic activity according to the modified Baron Index in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between endoscopic activity and fecal calprotectin (FC), C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin, platelets, blood leukocytes, and the Lichtiger Index (clinical score). METHODS: UC patients undergoing complete colonoscopy were prospectively enrolled and scored clinically and endoscopically. Samples from feces and blood were analyzed in UC patients and controls. RESULTS: We enrolled 228 UC patients and 52 healthy controls. Endoscopic disease activity correlated best with FC (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient r = 0.821), followed by the Lichtiger Index (r = 0.682), CRP (r = 0.556), platelets (r = 0.488), blood leukocytes (r = 0.401), and hemoglobin (r = -0.388). FC was the only marker that could discriminate between different grades of endoscopic activity (grade 0, 16 [10-30] μg/g; grade 1, 35 [25-48] μg/g; grade 2, 102 [44-159] μg/g; grade 3, 235 [176-319] μg/g; grade 4, 611 [406-868] μg/g; P < 0.001 for discriminating the different grades). FC with a cutoff of 57 μg/g had a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 90% to detect endoscopically active disease (modified Baron Index ≥ 2). CONCLUSIONS: FC correlated better with endoscopic disease activity than clinical activity, CRP, platelets, hemoglobin, and blood leukocytes. The strong correlation with endoscopic disease activity suggests that FC represents a useful biomarker for noninvasive monitoring of disease activity in UC patients.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound after devascularisation of neuroendocrine liver metastases: functional and morphological evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate morphological and perfusion changes in liver metastases of neuroendocrine tumours by contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) after transarterial embolisation with bead block (TAE) or trans-arterial chemoembolisation with doxorubicin-eluting beads (DEB-TACE). METHODS: In this retrospective study, seven patients underwent TAE, and ten underwent DEB-TACE using beads of the same size. At 1 day before embolisation, 2 days, 1 month and 3 months after the procedure, a destruction-replenishment study using CEUS was performed with a microbubble-enhancing contrast material on a reference tumour. Relative blood flow (rBF) and relative blood volume (rBV) were obtained from the ratio of values obtained in the tumour and in adjacent liver parenchyma. Morphological parameters such as the tumour's major diameter and the viable tumour's major diameter were also measured. A parameter combining functional and morphological data, the tumour vitality index (TVI), was studied. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test and Fisher's test were used to compare treatment groups. RESULTS: At 3 months rBF, rBV and TVI were significantly lower (P = 0.005, P = 0.04 and P = 0.03) for the group with doxorubicin. No difference in morphological parameters was found throughout the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: One parameter, TVI, could evaluate the morphological and functional response to treatments.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria

Sociogenomics of Cooperation and Conflict during Colony Founding in the Fire Ant Solenopsis invicta.

One of the fundamental questions in biology is how cooperative and altruistic behaviors evolved. The majority of studies seeking to identify the genes regulating these behaviors have been performed in systems where behavioral and physiological differences are relatively fixed, such as in the honey bee. During colony founding in the monogyne (one queen per colony) social form of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta, newly-mated queens may start new colonies either individually (haplometrosis) or in groups (pleometrosis). However, only one queen (the "winner") in pleometrotic associations survives and takes the lead of the young colony while the others (the "losers") are executed. Thus, colony founding in fire ants provides an excellent system in which to examine the genes underpinning cooperative behavior and how the social environment shapes the expression of these genes. We developed a new whole genome microarray platform for S. invicta to characterize the gene expression patterns associated with colony founding behavior. First, we compared haplometrotic queens, pleometrotic winners and pleometrotic losers. Second, we manipulated pleometrotic couples in order to switch or maintain the social ranks of the two cofoundresses. Haplometrotic and pleometrotic queens differed in the expression of genes involved in stress response, aging, immunity, reproduction and lipid biosynthesis. Smaller sets of genes were differentially expressed between winners and losers. In the second experiment, switching social rank had a much greater impact on gene expression patterns than the initial/final rank. Expression differences for several candidate genes involved in key biological processes were confirmed using qRT-PCR. Our findings indicate that, in S. invicta, social environment plays a major role in the determination of the patterns of gene expression, while the queen's physiological state is secondary. These results highlight the powerful influence of social environment on regulation of the genomic state, physiology and ultimately, social behavior of animals.

Context-dependent interpretation of the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The mutation status of the BRAF and KRAS genes has been proposed as prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer. Of them, only the BRAF V600E mutation has been validated independently as prognostic for overall survival and survival after relapse, while the prognostic value of KRAS mutation is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in various contexts defined by stratifications of the patient population. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer from the PETACC-3 clinical trial (N = 1,423), by assessing the prognostic value of the BRAF and KRAS mutations in subpopulations defined by all possible combinations of the following clinico-pathological variables: T stage, N stage, tumor site, tumor grade and microsatellite instability status. In each such subpopulation, the prognostic value was assessed by log rank test for three endpoints: overall survival, relapse-free survival, and survival after relapse. The significance level was set to 0.01 for Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, and a second threshold for a trend towards statistical significance was set at 0.05 for unadjusted p-values. The significance of the interactions was tested by Wald test, with significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: In stage II-III colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation was confirmed a marker of poor survival only in subpopulations involving microsatellite stable and left-sided tumors, with higher effects than in the whole population. There was no evidence for prognostic value in microsatellite instable or right-sided tumor groups. We found that BRAF was also prognostic for relapse-free survival in some subpopulations. We found no evidence that KRAS mutations had prognostic value, although a trend was observed in some stratifications. We also show evidence of heterogeneity in survival of patients with BRAF V600E mutation. CONCLUSIONS: The BRAF mutation represents an additional risk factor only in some subpopulations of colorectal cancers, in others having limited prognostic value. However, in the subpopulations where it is prognostic, it represents a marker of much higher risk than previously considered. KRAS mutation status does not seem to represent a strong prognostic variable.

Dukes B colorectal cancer: distinct genetic categories and clinical outcome based on proximal or distal tumor location.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether tumor location proximal or distal to the splenic flexure is associated with distinct molecular patterns and can predict clinical outcome in a homogeneous group of patients with Dukes B (T3-T4, N0, M0) colorectal cancer. It has been hypothesized that proximal and distal colorectal cancer may arise through different pathogenetic mechanisms. Although p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations occur frequently in distal tumors, another form of genomic instability associated with defective DNA mismatch repair has been predominantly identified in the proximal colon. To date, however, the clinical usefulness of these molecular characteristics remains unproven. METHODS: A total of 126 patients with a lymph node-negative sporadic colon or rectum adenocarcinoma were prospectively assessed with the endpoint of death by cancer. No patient received either radiotherapy or chemotherapy. p53 protein was studied by immunohistochemistry using DO-7 monoclonal antibody, and p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations were detected by single strand conformation polymorphism assay. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 67 months, the overall five-year survival was 70 percent. Nuclear p53 staining was found in 57 tumors (47 percent), and was more frequent in distal than in proximal tumors (55 vs. 21 percent; chi-squared test, P < 0.001). For the whole group, p53 protein expression correlated with poor survival in univariate and multivariate analysis (log-rank test, P = 0.01; hazard ratio = 2.16; 95 percent confidence interval = 1.12-4.11, P = 0.02). Distal colon tumors and rectal tumors exhibited similar molecular patterns and showed no difference in clinical outcome. In comparison with distal colorectal cancer, proximal tumors were found to be statistically significantly different on the following factors: mucinous content (P = 0.008), degree of histologic differentiation (P = 0.012), p53 protein expression, and gene mutation (P = 0.001 and 0.01 respectively). Finally, patients with proximal tumors had a marginally better survival than those with distal colon or rectal cancers (log-rank test, P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: In this series of Dukes B colorectal cancers, p53 protein expression was an independent factor for survival, which also correlated with tumor location. Eighty-six percent of p53-positive tumors were located in the distal colon and rectum. Distal colon and rectum tumors had similar molecular and clinical characteristics. In contrast, proximal neoplasms seem to represent a distinct entity, with specific histopathologic characteristics, molecular patterns, and clinical outcome. Location of the neoplasm in reference to the splenic flexure should be considered before group stratification in future trials of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with Dukes B tumors.

Fecal calprotectin more accurately reflects endoscopic activity of ulcerative colitis than the Lichtiger Index, CRP, or blood leukocytes

Background: Mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported to be associated with favourable clinical outcomes such as reduced hospitalization and surgery rates. Activity monitoring by endoscopy has its shortcomings due to invasiveness, costs, and potential patient discomfort. Data on the correlation of noninvasive biomarkers with endoscopic severity in UC are scarce. Aim: to evaluate the correlation between endoscopic activity according to the modified Baron Index and fecal calprotectin, C-reactive protein (CRP), blood leukocytes, and the Lichtiger Index (clinical score). Methods: UC patients with leftsided and extensive colitis undergoing complete colonoscopy were prospectively enrolled and scored clinically and endoscopically. Fecal and blood samples were analyzed in UC patients (in a blinded fashion) and controls. The modified Baron score describes the following 5 endoscopic conditions: 0 = normal, 1 = granular mucosa, edema, 2 = friable mucosa but no spontaneous bleeding, 3 = microulcerations with spontaneous bleeding, 4 = gross ulceration, denuded mucosa. Results: We enrolled 228 UC patients (mean age 41 ± 13 years, 39 female) and 52 healthy controls. Disease was located in 40% in the left colon, 21% had an extensive and 39% a pancolitis. Endoscopic disease activity correlated best with fecal calprotectin (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient r = 0.821), followed by the Lichtiger Index (r = 0.682), CRP (r = 0.556), and blood leukocytes (r = 0.401). Fecal calprotectin was the only marker that could discriminate between different grades of endoscopic activity (grade 0, 25 ± 11 μg/g; grade 1, 44 ± 34 μg/g; grade 2, 111 ± 74 μg/g; grade 3, 330 ± 332 μg/g; grade 4, 659 ± 319 μg/g; P = 0.002 for discriminating grade 0 vs. 1, and P < 0.001 for discriminating grade 1 vs. 2, grade 2 vs. 3, and grade 3 vs. 4). Fecal calprotectin had the highest overall accuracy (91%) to detect endoscopically active disease (modified Baron Index ≥ 2), followed by the Lichtiger Index score of ≥ 4 (77%), CRP > 5 mg/L (69%) and blood leukocytosis (58%). Conclusions: Fecal calprotectin better correlated with endoscopic disease activity than clinical activity, CRP, and blood leukocytes. The strong correlation with endoscopic disease activity suggests that FC represents a useful biomarker for noninvasive monitoring of disease activity in UC patients.

Intra- and interindividual variation in flank gland secretions of free-ranging shrews Crocidura russula

Individual differences in Rank gland secretions were examined among males of the monogamous shrew Crocidura russula during the breeding and nonbreeding seasons. Gas chromatography was used to measure intra- and interindividual variation of flank gland secretions of free-ranging shrews from different populations. The number of compounds detected by gas chromatographic analyses was correlated with body mass, flank gland size, and the presence of blood parasites in individual shrews. Very few compounds were detected from the Bank gland area of juvenile males. After they reached sexual maturity, however, the number of compounds detected from the Rank gland secretions increased significantly. At the beginning of the reproductive season 48 different compounds were detected from male flank gland secretions. In the middle of the breeding season 70 compounds were detected, while only 11 compounds were detected during the nonbreeding season. Few compounds were common to all males. There were more volatile compounds in the Bank gland secretions of males in the beginning of the breeding season than later in the breeding season. Males from the same population had fewer differences in the elution profile of compounds than males from different populations indicating that individuals from a distinct population have similar elution profiles of compounds and that each population has its own type of elution profile. No correlations were found between the number of compounds detected by gas chromatography for each male and the male's body mass or flank gland size. Blood parasites (trypanosomes, Trypanosoma crocidurae) were found in only three of 30 males investigated.

Interactions of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and TNF receptor family members in the mouse and human.

Ligands of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily (TNFSF) (4-1BBL, APRIL, BAFF, CD27L, CD30L, CD40L, EDA1, EDA2, FasL, GITRL, LIGHT, lymphotoxin alpha, lymphotoxin alphabeta, OX40L, RANKL, TL1A, TNF, TWEAK, and TRAIL) bind members of the TNF receptor superfamily (TNFRSF). A comprehensive survey of ligand-receptor interactions was performed using a flow cytometry-based assay. All ligands engaged between one and five receptors, whereas most receptors only bound one to three ligands. The receptors DR6, RELT, TROY, NGFR, and mouse TNFRH3 did not interact with any of the known TNFSF ligands, suggesting that they either bind other types of ligands, function in a ligand-independent manner, or bind ligands that remain to be identified. The study revealed that ligand-receptor pairs are either cross-reactive between human and mouse (e.g. Tweak/Fn14, RANK/RANKL), strictly species-specific (GITR/GITRL), or partially species-specific (e.g. OX40/OX40L, CD40/CD40L). Interestingly, the receptor binding patterns of lymphotoxin alpha and alphabeta are redundant in the human but not in the mouse system. Ligand oligomerization allowed detection of weak interactions, such as that of human TNF with mouse TNFR2. In addition, mouse APRIL exists as two different splice variants differing by a single amino acid. Although human APRIL does not interact with BAFF-R, the shorter variant of mouse APRIL exhibits weak but detectable binding to mouse BAFF-R.

Multimodel inference and multimodel averaging in empirical modeling of occupational exposure levels.

Empirical modeling of exposure levels has been popular for identifying exposure determinants in occupational hygiene. Traditional data-driven methods used to choose a model on which to base inferences have typically not accounted for the uncertainty linked to the process of selecting the final model. Several new approaches propose making statistical inferences from a set of plausible models rather than from a single model regarded as 'best'. This paper introduces the multimodel averaging approach described in the monograph by Burnham and Anderson. In their approach, a set of plausible models are defined a priori by taking into account the sample size and previous knowledge of variables influent on exposure levels. The Akaike information criterion is then calculated to evaluate the relative support of the data for each model, expressed as Akaike weight, to be interpreted as the probability of the model being the best approximating model given the model set. The model weights can then be used to rank models, quantify the evidence favoring one over another, perform multimodel prediction, estimate the relative influence of the potential predictors and estimate multimodel-averaged effects of determinants. The whole approach is illustrated with the analysis of a data set of 1500 volatile organic compound exposure levels collected by the Institute for work and health (Lausanne, Switzerland) over 20 years, each concentration having been divided by the relevant Swiss occupational exposure limit and log-transformed before analysis. Multimodel inference represents a promising procedure for modeling exposure levels that incorporates the notion that several models can be supported by the data and permits to evaluate to a certain extent model selection uncertainty, which is seldom mentioned in current practice.

Denosumab for prevention of fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.

BACKGROUND: Denosumab is a fully human monoclonal antibody to the receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappaB ligand (RANKL) that blocks its binding to RANK, inhibiting the development and activity of osteoclasts, decreasing bone resorption, and increasing bone density. Given its unique actions, denosumab may be useful in the treatment of osteoporosis. METHODS: We enrolled 7868 women between the ages of 60 and 90 years who had a bone mineral density T score of less than -2.5 but not less than -4.0 at the lumbar spine or total hip. Subjects were randomly assigned to receive either 60 mg of denosumab or placebo subcutaneously every 6 months for 36 months. The primary end point was new vertebral fracture. Secondary end points included nonvertebral and hip fractures. RESULTS: As compared with placebo, denosumab reduced the risk of new radiographic vertebral fracture, with a cumulative incidence of 2.3% in the denosumab group, versus 7.2% in the placebo group (risk ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.41; P<0.001)--a relative decrease of 68%. Denosumab reduced the risk of hip fracture, with a cumulative incidence of 0.7% in the denosumab group, versus 1.2% in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.97; P=0.04)--a relative decrease of 40%. Denosumab also reduced the risk of nonvertebral fracture, with a cumulative incidence of 6.5% in the denosumab group, versus 8.0% in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01)--a relative decrease of 20%. There was no increase in the risk of cancer, infection, cardiovascular disease, delayed fracture healing, or hypocalcemia, and there were no cases of osteonecrosis of the jaw and no adverse reactions to the injection of denosumab. CONCLUSIONS: Denosumab given subcutaneously twice yearly for 36 months was associated with a reduction in the risk of vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip fractures in women with osteoporosis. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00089791.)