Generation and interconnection capacity expansion in cross-border electricity markets : the need for policy coordination

Electricity is a strategic service in modern societies. Thus, it is extremely important for governments to be able to guarantee an affordable and reliable supply, which depends to a great extent on an adequate expansion of the generation and transmission capacities. Cross- border integration of electricity markets creates new challenges for the regulators, since the evolution of the market is now influenced by the characteristics and policies of neighbouring countries. There is still no agreement on why and how regions should integrate their electricity markets. The aim of this thesis is to improve the understanding of integrated electricity markets and how their behaviour depends on the prevailing characteristics of the national markets and the policies implemented in each country. We developed a simulation model to analyse under what circumstances integration is desirable. This model is used to study three cases of interconnection between two countries. Several policies regarding interconnection expansion and operation, combined with different generation capacity adequacy mechanisms, are evaluated. The thesis is composed of three papers. The first paper presents a detailed description of the model and an analysis of the case of Colombia and Ecuador. It shows that market coupling can bring important benefits, but the relative size of the countries can lead to import dependency issues in the smaller country. The second paper compares the case of Colombia and Ecuador with the case of Great Britain and France. These countries are significantly different in terms of electricity sources, hydro- storage capacity, complementarity and demand growth. We show that complementarity is essential in order to obtain benefits from integration, while higher demand growth and hydro- storage capacity can lead to counterintuitive outcomes, thus complicating policy design. In the third paper, an extended version of the model presented in the first paper is used to analyse the case of Finland and its interconnection with Russia. Different trading arrangements are considered. We conclude that unless interconnection capacity is expanded, the current trading arrangement, where a single trader owns the transmission rights and limits the flow during peak hours, is beneficial for Finland. In case of interconnection expansion, market coupling would be preferable. We also show that the costs of maintaining a strategic reserve in Finland are justified in order to limit import dependency, while still reaping the benefits of interconnection. In general, we conclude that electricity market integration can bring benefits if the right policies are implemented. However, a large interconnection capacity is only desirable if the countries exhibit significant complementarity and trust each other. The outcomes of policies aimed at guaranteeing security of supply at a national level can be quite counterintuitive due to the interactions between neighbouring countries and their effects on interconnection and generation investments. Thus, it is important for regulators to understand these interactions and coordinate their decisions in order to take advantage of the interconnection without putting security of supply at risk. But it must be taken into account that even when integration brings benefits to the region, some market participants lose and might try to hinder the integration process. -- Dans les sociétés modernes, l'électricité est un service stratégique. Il est donc extrêmement important pour les gouvernements de pouvoir garantir la sécurité d'approvisionnement à des prix abordables. Ceci dépend en grande mesure d'une expansion adéquate des capacités de génération et de transmission. L'intégration des marchés électriques pose des nouveaux défis pour les régulateurs, puisque l'évolution du marché est maintenant influencée par les caractéristiques et les politiques des pays voisins. Il n'est pas encore claire pourquoi ni comment les marches électriques devraient s'intégrer. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'améliorer la compréhension des marchés intégrés d'électricité et de leur comportement en fonction des caractéristiques et politiques de chaque pays. Un modèle de simulation est proposé pour étudier les conditions dans lesquelles l'intégration est désirable. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier trois cas d'interconnexion entre deux pays. Plusieurs politiques concernant l'expansion et l'opération de l'interconnexion, combinées avec différents mécanismes de rémunération de la capacité, sont évalués. Cette thèse est compose de trois articles. Le premier présente une description détaillée du modèle et une analyse du cas de la Colombie et de l'Equateur. Il montre que le couplage de marchés peut amener des bénéfices importants ; cependant, la différence de taille entre pays peut créer des soucis de dépendance aux importations pour le pays le plus petit. Le second papier compare le cas de la Colombie et l'Equateur avec le cas de la Grande Bretagne et de la France. Ces pays sont très différents en termes de ressources, taille des réservoirs d'accumulation pour l'hydro, complémentarité et croissance de la demande. Nos résultats montrent que la complémentarité joue un rôle essentiel dans l'obtention des bénéfices potentiels de l'intégration, alors qu'un taux élevé de croissance de la demande, ainsi qu'une grande capacité de stockage, mènent à des résultats contre-intuitifs, ce qui complique les décisions des régulateurs. Dans le troisième article, une extension du modèle présenté dans le premier article est utilisée pour analyser le cas de la Finlande et de la Russie. Différentes règles pour les échanges internationaux d'électricité sont considérées. Nos résultats indiquent qu'à un faible niveau d'interconnexion, la situation actuelle, où un marchand unique possède les droits de transmission et limite le flux pendant les heures de pointe, est bénéfique pour la Finlande. Cependant, en cas d'expansion de la capacité d'interconnexion, «market coupling» est préférable. préférable. Dans tous les cas, la Finlande a intérêt à garder une réserve stratégique, car même si cette politique entraine des coûts, elle lui permet de profiter des avantages de l'intégration tout en limitant ca dépendance envers les importations. En général, nous concluons que si les politiques adéquates sont implémentées, l'intégration des marchés électriques peut amener des bénéfices. Cependant, une grande capacité d'interconnexion n'est désirable que si les pays ont une complémentarité importante et il existe une confiance mutuelle. Les résultats des politiques qui cherchent à préserver la sécurité d'approvisionnement au niveau national peuvent être très contre-intuitifs, étant données les interactions entre les pays voisins et leurs effets sur les investissements en génération et en interconnexion. Il est donc très important pour les régulateurs de comprendre ces interactions et de coordonner décisions à fin de pouvoir profiter de l'interconnexion sans mettre en danger la sécurité d'approvisionnement. Mais il faut être conscients que même quand l'intégration amène de bénéfices pour la région, certains participants au marché sont perdants et pourraient essayer de bloquer le processus d'intégration.

When nightclub security agents assault clients.

In 2006, a medico-legal consultation service devoted to adult victims of interpersonal violence was set up at the Lausanne University Hospital Centre, Switzerland: the Violence Medical Unit. Most patients are referred to the consultation by the Emergency Department. They are received by forensic nurses for support, forensic examination (in order to establish medical report) and community orientation. Between 2007 and 2009, among community violence, aggressions by security agents of nightclubs on clients have increased from 6% to 10%. Most of the victims are young men who had drunk alcohol before the assault. 25.7% presented one or several fractures, all of them in the head area. These findings raise questions about the ability of security agents of nightclubs to deal adequately with obviously risky situations and ensure client security.

Publicizing insecurity, privatizing security: Chinese wholesalers' surveillance cameras in a Paris suburb

Since the early nineties, several hundreds of Chinese immigrants have settled in what has become known as the 'Chinese wholesalers area'. For the past two years, Chinese wholesalers in Aubervilliers have been calling on public authorities to address the problem of street robberies and violent thefts, which they experience on a daily basis. Yet, they have been encouraged by the authorities to ensure their own protection, by - amongst other things - installing surveillance cameras to film the streets. This is illegal according to French legislation on camera surveillance. Knowing this, why have surveillance cameras been adopted as a solution? This question guides the ethnographic analysis presented here of a situation where the installation of surveillance cameras was locally negotiated by the main actors involved - namely, the wholesalers' representatives and the police.

Active screening for pulmonary tuberculosis by chest x-ray among immigrants at the Swiss border

Summary : Aim: To assess the number of immigrants with pulmonary tuberculosis detected by chest x-ray screening at the Swiss border. Method: All adult immigrants entering Switzerland in 2004 were screened by chest x-ray (CXR). The number of radiological abnormalities suggestive of pulmonary tuberculosis, and the proportion requiring treatment for tuberculosis, were assessed retrospectively. The frequency of symptoms among immigrants with documented TB was compared with a sample of immigrants with a normal CXR. Results: Among 8995 immigrants, 8240 had a normal CXR, 630 had some abnormality not suggestive of active TB and 125 (1.4%) had a CXR suggestive of pulmonary TB. A final diagnosis of tuberculosis requiring treatment was made in SO (1 l with positive smear and culture, 16 with positive culture and 23 with negative culture), 57 had fibrotic lesions and 18 had another disease or a normal x-ray on control. The prevalence of symptoms did not differ between 27 immigrants with documented TB (smear+/culture+: 82%, smear-/ culture+: 75%), and 23 with smear-/culturetuberculosis (91%), but lower in 57 immigrants with fibrotic lesions (60%). Cough was more frequent among the 27 immigrants with documented TB (70%) than among 198 smokers without TB (37%) and among 229 non-smokers without TB (15%) Conclusions: Only 22% (27/125) of immigrants with CXR abnormalities suggestive of pulrnonary tuberculosis were documented by smear and/or culture and 40% (50/125) needed antituberculous treatment. 2/11 smear-positive immigrants would not have been detected by a questionnaire on symptoms. Rapport de synthèse : Le but de l'étude est d'évaluer le rendement du dépistage radiologique de la tuberculose pulmonaire chez les immigrés à l'entrée en Suisse. Méthode: parmi les immigrés adultes entrés en Suisse en 2004, qui ont tous passé un contrôle radiologique, le nombre de porteurs de clichés thoraciques suspects de tuberculose et la proportion de cas chez lesquels un traitement antituberculeux a été prescrit ont été évalués rétrospectivement. La fréquence des symptômes chez les immigrés atteints de tuberculose a été comparée à celle d'un groupe contrôle sans tuberculose. Résultats: parmi 8995 immigrés, 8240 avaient un cliché thoracique normal, 630 étaient porteurs d'une anomalie non suspecte de tuberculose active et 125 (1.4%) montraient des signes radiologiques suspects de tuberculose. Un diagnostic final de tuberculose nécessitant un traitement a été posé dans 50 cas (11 cas à frottis et culture positifs, 16 cas à culture positive, 23 cas à culture négative), 57 présentaient des lésions cicatricielles compatibles avec une ancienne tuberculose et 18 avaient une autre affection pulmonaire ou un cliché normal au contrôle. La prévalence des plaintes n'était pas différente entre les 27 immigrés porteurs d'une tuberculose documentée (frottis+ /culture+: 82%, frottis-/culture+ : 75%) et les 23 immigrés atteints d'une tuberculose non documentée (frottis-/culture-: 91%), mais elle était plus élevée que chez les 57 immigrés porteurs de lésions cicatricielles (59%). La toux était plus fréquente chez les 27 tuberculeux documentés (70%) que chez 198 fumeurs sans tuberculose (37%) et chez 229 non fumeurs sans tuberculose (15%). Conclusions: seuls 22% (27/125) des immigrés dont le cliché thoracique est suspect de tuberculose sont porteurs d'une tuberculose documentée par examen direct ou culture et 40% (50/125) nécessitent un traitement antituberculeux. Deux immigrants sur les 11 cas frottis positifs n'auraient pas été dépistés par un questionnaire.

Format of medical order sheet improves security of antibiotics prescription: The experience of an intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether formatting the medical order sheet has an effect on the accuracy and security of antibiotics prescription. DESIGN: Prospective assessment of antibiotics prescription over time, before and after the intervention, in comparison with a control ward. SETTING: The medical and surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university hospital. PATIENTS: All patients hospitalized in the medical or surgical ICU between February 1 and April 30, 1997, and July 1 and August 31, 2000, for whom antibiotics were prescribed. INTERVENTION: Formatting of the medical order sheet in the surgical ICU in 1998. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Compliance with the American Society of Hospital Pharmacists' criteria for prescription safety was measured. The proportion of safe orders increased in both units, but the increase was 4.6 times greater in the surgical ICU (66% vs. 74% in the medical ICU and 48% vs. 74% in the surgical ICU). For unsafe orders, the proportion of ambiguous orders decreased by half in the medical ICU (9% vs. 17%) and nearly disappeared in the surgical ICU (1% vs. 30%). The only missing criterion remaining in the surgical ICU was the drug dose unit, which could not be preformatted. The aim of antibiotics prescription (either prophylactic or therapeutic) was indicated only in 51% of the order sheets. CONCLUSIONS: Formatting of the order sheet markedly increased security of antibiotics prescription. These findings must be confirmed in other settings and with different drug classes. Formatting the medical order sheet decreases the potential for prescribing errors before full computerized prescription is available.

Topics in public finance: social security and taxation

Summary The field of public finance focuses on the spending and taxing activities of governments and their influence on the allocation of resources and distribution of income. This work covers in three parts different topics related to public finance which are currently widely discussed in media and politics. The first two parts deal with issues on social security, which is in general one of the biggest spending shares of governments. The third part looks at the main income source of governments by analyzing the perceived value of tax competition. Part one deals with the current problem of increased early retirement by focusing on Switzerland as a special case. Early retirement is predominantly considered to be the result of incentives set by social security and the tax system. But the Swiss example demonstrates that the incidence of early retirement has dramatically increased even in the absence of institutional changes. We argue that the wealth effect also plays an important role in the retirement decision for middle and high income earners. An actuarially fair, but mandatory funded system with a relatively high replacement rate may thus contribute to a low labor market participation rate of elderly workers. We provide evidence using a unique dataset on individual retirement decisions in Swiss pension funds, allowing us to perfectly control for pension scheme details. Our findings suggest that affordability is a key determinant in the retirement decisions. The higher the accumulated pension capital, the earlier men, and to a smaller extent women, tend to leave the workforce. The fact that early retirement has become much more prevalent in the last 15 years is a further indicator of the importance of a wealth effect, as the maturing of the Swiss mandatory funded pension system over that period has led to an increase in the effective replacement rates for middle and high income earners. Part two covers the theoretical side of social security. Theories analyzing optimal social security benefits provide important qualitative results, by mainly using one general type of an economy. Economies are however very diverse concerning numerous aspects, one of the most important being the wealth level. This can lead to significant quantitative benefit differences that imply differences in replacement rates and levels of labor supply. We focus on several aspects related to this fact. In a within cohort social security model, we introduce disability insurance with an imperfect screening mechanism. We then vary the wealth level of the model economy and analyze how the optimal social security benefit structure or equivalently, the optimal replacement rates, changes depending on the wealth level of the economy, and if the introduction of disability insurance into a social security system is preferable for all economies. Second, the screening mechanism of disability insurance and the threshold level at which people are defined as disabled can differ. For economies with different wealth levels, we determine for different thresholds the screening level that maximizes social welfare. Finally, part three turns to the income of governments, by adding an element to the controversy on tax competition versus tax harmonization.2 Inter-jurisdictional tax competition can generate at least two potential benefits or costs: On a public level, tax competition may result in a lower or higher efficiency in the production of public services. But there is also a more private benefit in the form of an option for individuals to move to a community with a lower tax rate in the future. To explore the value citizens attach to tax competition we analyze a unique popular vote for a complete tax harmonization between communities in the third largest Swiss canton, Vaud. Although a majority of voters would have seemingly benefited from replacing the current tax rate by a revenue-neutral average tax rate, the proposal was rejected by a large margin. Our estimates suggest that the estimated combined perceived benefit from tax competition is in the range of 10%.

Applications of a transportable Raman spectrometer for the in situ detection of controlled substances at border controls

A transportable Raman spectrometer was tested for the detection of illicit drugs seized during border controls. In a first step, the analysis methodology was optimized using reference substances such as diacetylmorphine (heroin), cocaine and amphetamine (as powder or liquid forms). Adequate focalisation distance and times of analysis, influence of daylight and artificial light sources, repeatability and limits of detection were studied. In a second step the applications and limitations of the technique to detect the illicit substances in different mixtures and containers was evaluated. Transportable Raman spectroscopy was found to be adequate for a rapid screen of liquids and powders for the detection and identification of controlled substances. Additionally, it had the advantage over other portable techniques, such as ion mobility spectrometry, of being non-destructive and capable of rapid analysis of large quantities of substances through containers such as plastic bags and glass bottles.

False identity documents forensic profiling: study of known-sources and cross-border seizures

A forensic intelligence process was conducted over cross-border seizures of false identity documents whose sources were partly known to be the same. Visual features of 300 counterfeit Portuguese and French identity cards seized in France and Switzerland were observed and integrated in a structured database developed to detect and analyze forensic links. Based on a few batches of documents known to come from common sources, the forensic profiling method could be validated and its performance evaluated. The method also proved efficient and complementary to conventional means of detecting connections between cases. Cross-border links were detected, highlighting the need for more collaboration. Forensic intelligence could be produced, uncovering the structure of counterfeits' illegal trade, the concentration of their sources and the evolution of their quality over time. In addition, two case examples illustrated how forensic profiling may support specific investigations. The forensic intelligence process and its results will underline the need to develop such approaches to support the fight against fraudulent documents and organized crime.