Contact and communication with healthcare providers regarding influenza vaccination during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic.

Objective. The existence of two vaccines seasonal and pandemic-created the potential for confusion and misinformation among consumers during the 2009-2010 vaccination season. We measured the frequency and nature of influenza vaccination communication between healthcare providers and adults for both seasonal and 2009 influenza A(H1N1) vaccination and quantified its association with uptake of the two vaccines.Methods. We analyzed data from 4040 U.S. adult members of a nationally representative online panel surveyed between March 4th and March 24th, 2010. We estimated prevalence rates and adjusted associations between vaccine uptake and vaccination-related communication between patients and healthcare providers using bivariate probit models.Results. 64.1% (95%-CI: 61.5%-66.6%) of adults did not receive any provider-issued influenza vaccination recommendation. Adults who received a provider-issued vaccination recommendation were 14.1 (95%-CI: -2.4 to 30.6) to 32.1 (95%-CI: 24.3-39.8) percentage points more likely to be vaccinated for influenza than adults without a provider recommendation, after adjusting for other characteristics associated with vaccination.Conclusions. Influenza vaccination communication between healthcare providers and adults was relatively uncommon during the 2009-2010 pandemic. Increased communication could significantly enhance influenza vaccination rates. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extremal properties of certain risk models

Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.

The determinants of sport participation in Switzerland

This paper aims at investigating the socio-cultural factors that affect leisure-time sport participation in Switzerland. Data drawn from 8 waves of the Swiss Household Panel is used to evaluate a probit model with random effects, that takes into account the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the respondents. In line with existing literature, findings from the multivariate analysis show inequalities in sport involvement in Switzerland. These are significantly related to age, income, education, citizenship and cultural aspects. Appropriate and targeted policies promoting participation in sports among the community can be found on the basis of the critical modifiers in the model and their impact.

Automatic Comparison and Evaluation of Impressions Left by a Firearm on Fired Cartridge Cases

Recent years have been characterized by a series of publications in the field of firearms investigation questioning the reliability and objectivity of such examination. This research investigates new solutions to decrease the subjective component affecting the evaluation that follows the comparison of impressions left by a firearm on the surface of spent cartridge cases. An automatic comparison system based on 3D measurements has been developed and coupled to a bivariate evaluative model allowing assigning likelihood ratios. Based on a dataset of 79 pistols (all SIG Sauer 9 mm Luger caliber), the system shows a very high discriminating power and the LRs that it provides are very indicative of the true state under both the prosecution and the defense propositions. For example, likelihood ratios exceeding a billion are predominantly obtained when impressions originating from the same source are compared. The system is also characterized by relatively low rates (≤1%) of misleading evidence depending on the firearm considered.

Problems of allometric scaling analysis: examples from mammalian reproductive biology.

Biological scaling analyses employing the widely used bivariate allometric model are beset by at least four interacting problems: (1) choice of an appropriate best-fit line with due attention to the influence of outliers; (2) objective recognition of divergent subsets in the data (allometric grades); (3) potential restrictions on statistical independence resulting from phylogenetic inertia; and (4) the need for extreme caution in inferring causation from correlation. A new non-parametric line-fitting technique has been developed that eliminates requirements for normality of distribution, greatly reduces the influence of outliers and permits objective recognition of grade shifts in substantial datasets. This technique is applied in scaling analyses of mammalian gestation periods and of neonatal body mass in primates. These analyses feed into a re-examination, conducted with partial correlation analysis, of the maternal energy hypothesis relating to mammalian brain evolution, which suggests links between body size and brain size in neonates and adults, gestation period and basal metabolic rate. Much has been made of the potential problem of phylogenetic inertia as a confounding factor in scaling analyses. However, this problem may be less severe than suspected earlier because nested analyses of variance conducted on residual variation (rather than on raw values) reveals that there is considerable variance at low taxonomic levels. In fact, limited divergence in body size between closely related species is one of the prime examples of phylogenetic inertia. One common approach to eliminating perceived problems of phylogenetic inertia in allometric analyses has been calculation of 'independent contrast values'. It is demonstrated that the reasoning behind this approach is flawed in several ways. Calculation of contrast values for closely related species of similar body size is, in fact, highly questionable, particularly when there are major deviations from the best-fit line for the scaling relationship under scrutiny.