PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Evolutionary Games in Networked Populations: Models and Experiments

Cooperation and coordination are desirable behaviors that are fundamental for the harmonious development of society. People need to rely on cooperation with other individuals in many aspects of everyday life, such as teamwork and economic exchange in anonymous markets. However, cooperation may easily fall prey to exploitation by selfish individuals who only care about short- term gain. For cooperation to evolve, specific conditions and mechanisms are required, such as kinship, direct and indirect reciprocity through repeated interactions, or external interventions such as punishment. In this dissertation we investigate the effect of the network structure of the population on the evolution of cooperation and coordination. We consider several kinds of static and dynamical network topologies, such as Baraba´si-Albert, social network models and spatial networks. We perform numerical simulations and laboratory experiments using the Prisoner's Dilemma and co- ordination games in order to contrast human behavior with theoretical results. We show by numerical simulations that even a moderate amount of random noise on the Baraba´si-Albert scale-free network links causes a significant loss of cooperation, to the point that cooperation almost vanishes altogether in the Prisoner's Dilemma when the noise rate is high enough. Moreover, when we consider fixed social-like networks we find that current models of social networks may allow cooperation to emerge and to be robust at least as much as in scale-free networks. In the framework of spatial networks, we investigate whether cooperation can evolve and be stable when agents move randomly or performing Le´vy flights in a continuous space. We also consider discrete space adopting purposeful mobility and binary birth-death process to dis- cover emergent cooperative patterns. The fundamental result is that cooperation may be enhanced when this migration is opportunistic or even when agents follow very simple heuristics. In the experimental laboratory, we investigate the issue of social coordination between indi- viduals located on networks of contacts. In contrast to simulations, we find that human players dynamics do not converge to the efficient outcome more often in a social-like network than in a random network. In another experiment, we study the behavior of people who play a pure co- ordination game in a spatial environment in which they can move around and when changing convention is costly. We find that each convention forms homogeneous clusters and is adopted by approximately half of the individuals. When we provide them with global information, i.e., the number of subjects currently adopting one of the conventions, global consensus is reached in most, but not all, cases. Our results allow us to extract the heuristics used by the participants and to build a numerical simulation model that agrees very well with the experiments. Our findings have important implications for policymakers intending to promote specific, desired behaviors in a mobile population. Furthermore, we carry out an experiment with human subjects playing the Prisoner's Dilemma game in a diluted grid where people are able to move around. In contrast to previous results on purposeful rewiring in relational networks, we find no noticeable effect of mobility in space on the level of cooperation. Clusters of cooperators form momentarily but in a few rounds they dissolve as cooperators at the boundaries stop tolerating being cheated upon. Our results highlight the difficulties that mobile agents have to establish a cooperative environment in a spatial setting without a device such as reputation or the possibility of retaliation. i.e. punishment. Finally, we test experimentally the evolution of cooperation in social networks taking into ac- count a setting where we allow people to make or break links at their will. In this work we give particular attention to whether information on an individual's actions is freely available to poten- tial partners or not. Studying the role of information is relevant as information on other people's actions is often not available for free: a recruiting firm may need to call a job candidate's refer- ences, a bank may need to find out about the credit history of a new client, etc. We find that people cooperate almost fully when information on their actions is freely available to their potential part- ners. Cooperation is less likely, however, if people have to pay about half of what they gain from cooperating with a cooperator. Cooperation declines even further if people have to pay a cost that is almost equivalent to the gain from cooperating with a cooperator. Thus, costly information on potential neighbors' actions can undermine the incentive to cooperate in dynamical networks.

Usefulness of postmortem biochemistry in forensic pathology: illustrative case reports.

The aim of this work is to present some practical, postmortem biochemistry applications to illustrate the usefulness of this discipline and reassert the importance of carrying out biochemical investigations as an integral part of the autopsy process. Five case reports are presented pertaining to diabetic ketoacidosis in an adult who was not known to suffer from diabetes and in presence of multiple psychotropic substances; fatal flecainide intoxication in a poor metabolizer also presenting an impaired renal function; diabetic ketoacidosis showing severe postmortem changes; primary aldosteronism presented with intracranial hemorrhage and hypothermia showing severe postmortem changes. The cases herein presented can be considered representative examples of the importance of postmortem biochemistry investigations, which may provide significant information useful in determining the cause of death in routine forensic casework or contribute to understanding the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in the death process.

Biochemical markers of fatal hypothermia.

The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of postmortem biochemical investigations in the diagnosis of fatal hypothermia. 10 cases of fatal hypothermia and 30 control cases were selected. A series of biochemical parameters, such as glucose, acetone, 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate, isopropyl alcohol, free fatty acids, adrenaline, growth hormone, adrenocorticotropic hormone, thyroid-stimulating hormone, cortisol, calcium, magnesium, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin as well as markers of renal and cardiac functions were measured in blood, postmortem serum from femoral blood, urine, vitreous and pericardial fluid. The results suggested that deaths due to hypothermia, especially in free-ethanol cases, are characterized by increased ketone levels in blood and other biological fluids, increased adrenaline concentrations in urine, increased cortisol levels in postmortem serum from femoral blood and increased free cortisol values in urine. Increased or decreased levels of other biological parameters are either the result of terminal metabolic changes or the expression of preexisting diseases and may provide information to elucidate the death process on a case-by-case basis.

Survival response in the skin

Apoptosis is defined as a programmed cell death process operating in multicellular organisms in order to maintain proper homeostasis of tissues. Caspases are among the best characterized proteases to execute apoptosis although lately many studies have associated them with non-apoptotic functions. In the laboratory an antiapoptotic pathway relying on caspase-3 activation and RasGAP has been described in vitro. RasGAP bears two conserved caspase-3 cleavage sites. Under low stress conditions, RasGAP is first cleaved by low caspase-3 activity generating an N terminal fragment (fragment N) that induces a potent anti-apoptotic response mediated by the Ras/PI3K/Akt pathway. High levels of active caspase-3, associated with increased stress conditions, induce further cleavage of fragment N abrogating this anti-apoptotic response. In the present work I studied the functionality of fragment N-mediated protection in physiological conditions as well as the mechanism by which fragment N induces an anti-apoptotic response, with a focus on survivin, an inhibitor of apoptosis. During my work in the laboratory I found that mice lacking caspase-3 or unable to cleave RasGAP (KI mice) are deficient in Akt activation and more sensitive to apoptosis than wild-type mice in response to stress. This higher sensitivity to stress led to augmented tissue damage, highlighting the importance of this pathway in protection against low stress. In parallel I focused on the study of survivin expression in the skin in response to UV-B light and I found that survivin is induced in the cytoplasm of keratinocytes in response to stress where it may fulfill a cyto-protective role. However fragment N had no effect on survivin expression. In addition, cytoplasmic survivin was increased in keratinocytes exposed to UV-B light, whether RasGAP is cleaved (WT mice) or not (KI mice), indicating that survivin is not involved in fragment N mediated protection. Altogether these data indicate that fragment N is pivotal for cell protection against pathophysiologic damage and can encourage the development of therapies aimed to strengthen the resistance of cells against aggressive treatments. Importantly, this finding contributes to the characterization of how caspase-3 can be activated without inducing cell death, although further studies need to be conducted in order to completely characterize this pro-survival molecular mechanism.

Postmortem chemistry update part I.

Postmortem chemistry is becoming increasingly essential in the forensic pathology routine and considerable progress has been made over the past years. Biochemical analyses of vitreous humor, cerebrospinal fluid, blood and urine may provide significant information in determining the cause of death or in elucidating forensic cases. Postmortem chemistry may essentially contribute in the determination of the cause of death when the pathophysiological changes involved in the death process cannot be detected by morphological methods (e.g. diabetes mellitus, alcoholic ketoacidosis and electrolytic disorders). It can also provide significant information and useful support in other forensic situations, including anaphylaxis, hypothermia, sepsis and hormonal disturbances. In this article, we present a review of the literature that covers this vast topic and we report the results of our observations. We have focused our attention on glucose metabolism, renal function and electrolytic disorders.

Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data.

Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

Innate and adaptive effects of inflammasomes on T cell responses.

Inflammasomes are protein complexes that form in response to pathogen-derived or host-derived stress signals. Their activation leads to the production of inflammatory cytokines and promotes a pyrogenic cell death process. The massive release of inflammatory mediators that follows inflammasome activation is a key event in alarming innate immune cells. Growing evidence also highlights the role of inflammasome-dependent cytokines in shaping the adaptive immune response, as exemplified by the capacity of IL-1β to support Th17 responses, or by the finding that IL-18 evokes antigen-independent IFN-γ secretion by memory CD8(+) T cells. A deeper understanding of these mechanisms and on how to manipulate this powerful inflammatory system therefore represents an important step forward in the development of improved vaccine strategies.

Fatal metformin overdose: case report and postmortem biochemistry contribution.

Metformin is an oral antihyperglycemic agent used in the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Lactic acidosis from metformin overdose is a rare complication of metformin therapy and occurs infrequently with therapeutic use. Fatal cases, both accidental and intentional, are extremely rare in clinical practice. Metformin is eliminated by the kidneys, and impaired renal function can result in an increased plasma concentration of the drug. In this report, we describe an autopsy case involving a 70-year-old woman suffering from diabetes mellitus and impaired renal function who received metformin treatment. Metformin concentrations in the peripheral blood collected during hospitalization and femoral blood collected during autopsy were 42 and 47.3 µg/ml, respectively. Lactic acidosis (29.10 mmol/l) was objectified during hospitalization. Furthermore, postmortem biochemistry allowed ketoacidosis to be diagnosed (blood β-hydroxybutyrate, 10,500 µmol/l). Death was attributed to lactic acidosis due to metformin intoxication. Increased plasma concentrations of the drug were attributed to severely impaired renal function. The case emphasizes the usefulness of performing exhaustive toxicology and postmortem biochemistry towards the more complete understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms that may be involved in the death process.

Usefulness of postmortem biochemistry in forensic pathology: illustrative case reports.

The aim of this work is to present some practical, postmortem biochemistry applications to illustrate the usefulness of this discipline and reassert the importance of carrying out biochemical investigations as an integral part of the autopsy process. Five case reports are presented pertaining to diabetic ketoacidosis in an adult who was not known to suffer from diabetes and in presence of multiple psychotropic substances; fatal flecainide intoxication in a poor metabolizer also presenting an impaired renal function; diabetic ketoacidosis showing severe postmortem changes; primary aldosteronism presented with intracranial hemorrhage and hypothermia showing severe postmortem changes. The cases herein presented can be considered representative examples of the importance of postmortem biochemistry investigations, which may provide significant information useful in determining the cause of death in routine forensic casework or contribute to understanding the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in the death process.

Retinal degeneration depends on Bmi1 function and reactivation of cell cycle proteins.

The epigenetic regulator Bmi1 controls proliferation in many organs. Reexpression of cell cycle proteins such as cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) is a hallmark of neuronal apoptosis in neurodegenerative diseases. Here we address the potential role of Bmi1 as a key regulator of cell cycle proteins during neuronal apoptosis. We show that several cell cycle proteins are expressed in different models of retinal degeneration and required in the Rd1 photoreceptor death process. Deleting E2f1, a downstream target of CDKs, provided temporary protection in Rd1 mice. Most importantly, genetic ablation of Bmi1 provided extensive photoreceptor survival and improvement of retinal function in Rd1 mice, mediated by a decrease in cell cycle markers and regulators independent of p16(Ink4a) and p19(Arf). These data reveal that Bmi1 controls the cell cycle-related death process, highlighting this pathway as a promising therapeutic target for neuroprotection in retinal dystrophies.

Ketoacidosis and adrenocortical insufficiency.

We herein report an autopsy case involving a 27-year-old Caucasian woman suffering from chronic adrenocortical insufficiency with a background of a polyendocrine disorder. Postmortem biochemistry revealed pathologically decreased aldosterone, cortisol, and dehydroepiandrosterone levels in postmortem serum from femoral blood as well as decreased cortisol and 17-hydroxycorticosteroid in urine. Decreased vitreous sodium and increased 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate and C-reactive protein concentrations were observed. The cause of death was determined to be acute adrenocortical insufficiency. Fasting ketoacidosis was postulated to have precipitated the Addisonian crisis. Traumatic causes of death and third-party involvement were excluded. The case highlights the importance of systematically performing exhaustive postmortem biochemical investigations to formulate appropriate hypothesis regarding the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in the death process.

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.

Hour of birth as a prognostic factor for perinatal death.

The analysis of the 220,540 births and 2152 perinatal deaths recorded in Switzerland between 1979 and 1981 showed a variation of perinatal mortality rates (PMR) according to the hour of birth. The PMR for babies born between 4 pm and 2 am was 12 per 1000, contrasting with a figure of 8.4 per 1000 for babies born between 2 am and 4 pm. This pattern, which was fairly constant throughout the week, was characterised by a slow and steady increase from the very early morning, reaching a maximum in the late evening. There was also an hour-to-hour variation in the proportion of babies born weighing less than 2500 g, with a maximum in the evening and a less pronounced peak in the morning: the mortality rates by birthweight were raised only in the evening. Since the availability of hospital staff and equipment also follows a circadian rhythm, the variation in PMR may be related to a circadian rhythm of quality of care or possibly to chronobiological or selection factors.