Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Europe and other areas of the world: an update.

OBJECTIVE: To update trends in mortality from coronary heart diseases (CHD) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) over the period 1981-2004 in Europe, the USA, Latin America, Japan and other selected areas of the world. METHODS: Age-standardized mortality rates were derived from the World Health Organization database. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify significant changes in trends. RESULTS: In the European Union (27 countries), CHD mortality in men declined from 139/100,000 in 1985-1989 to 93/100,000 in 2000-2004 (-33%). In women, the fall was from 61/100,000 to 44/100,000 (-27%). In this area, a decline by over 30% was also registered in CVD mortality for both sexes. In the Russian Federation and other countries of the former Soviet Union, CHD rates in 2000-2004 were exceedingly high, around 380/100,000 men and 170/100,000 women in Russia, 430 for men and 240 for women in Ukraine, 420 and 200 in Belarus. For CVD, a similar situation was registered, with mortality rates of 226/100,000 for men and 159/100,000 for women in 2004 in the Russian Federation, and more than 24% increase since the late 1980s for men and 15% for women. CHD and CVD mortality continued to decline in most Latin American countries, Australia and other areas considered, including Asia (even if with marked differences). CONCLUSION: Although mortality from CHD and CVD continues to decline in several areas of the world including most countries of Europe and of the America providing data and Australia, unfavourable trends were still observed in the Russian Federation and other countries of the former Soviet Union, whose recent rates remain exceedingly high.

Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Anatomical distribution of areas of preserved cartilage in advanced femorotibial osteoarthritis using CT arthrography (Part 1).

OBJECTIVE: To determine subregions of normal and abnormal cartilage in advanced stages of femorotibial osteoarthritis (OA) by mapping the entire femorotibial joint in a cohort of pre-total knee replacement (TKR) OA knees. DESIGN: We defined an areal subdivision of the femorotibial articular cartilage surface on CT arthrography (CTA), allowing the division of the femorotibial articular surface into multiple (up to n = 204 per knee) subregions and the comparison of the same areas between different knees. Two readers independently classified each cartilage area as normal, abnormal or non-assessable in 41 consecutive pre-TKR OA knees. RESULTS: A total of 6447 cartilage areas (from 41 knees) were considered assessable by both readers. The average proportion of preserved cartilage was lower in the medial femorotibial joint than in the lateral femorotibial joint for both readers (32.0/69.8% and 33.9/68.5% (medial/lateral) for reader 1 and 2 respectively, all P < 0.001). High frequencies of normal cartilage were observed at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle (up to 89%), and the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment (up to 100%). The posterior aspect of the medial condyle was the area that most frequently exhibited preserved cartilage in the medial femorotibial joint, contrasting with the high frequency of cartilage lesions in the rest of that compartment. CONCLUSIONS: Cartilage at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle, and at the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment, may be frequently preserved in advanced grades of OA.

Areas of high conservation value in Georgia: present and future threats by invasive alien plants

Georgia is known for its extraordinary rich biodiversity of plants, which may now be threatened due to the spread of invasive alien plants (IAP). We aimed to identify (i) the most prominent IAP out of 9 selected potentially invasive and harmful IAP IAP by predicting thetheir distribution of 9 selected IAP under current and future climate conditions in Georgia as well as in its 43 Protected Areas, as a proxy for areas of high conservation value and (ii) the Protected Areas most at risk due to these IAP. We used species distribution models based on 6 climate variables and then filtered the obtained distributions based on maps of soil and vegetation types, and on recorded occurrences, resulting into the predicted ecological distribution of the 9 IAP's at a resolution of 1km2. We foundOur habitat suitability analysis showed that Ambrosia artemisiifolia, (24% and 40%) Robinia pseudoacaia (14% and 19%) and Ailanthus altissima (9% and 11%) have the largest potential distribution are the most abundant (predicted % area covered)d) IAP, with Ailanthus altissima the potentially most increasing one over the next fifty years (from 9% to 13% and from 11% to 25%), for Georgia and the Protected Areas, respectively. Furthermore, our results show indicate two areas in Georgia that are under specifically high threat, i.e. the area around Tbilisi and an area in the western part of Georgia (Adjara), both at lower altitudes. Our procedure to identify areas of high conservation value most at risk by IAP has been applied for the first time. It will help national authorities in prioritizing their measures to protect Georgia's outstanding biodiversity from the negative impact of IAP.

Antibody levels against GLURP R2, MSP1 block 2 hybrid and AS202.11 and the risk of malaria in children living in hyperendemic (Burkina Faso) and hypo-endemic (Ghana) areas.

Differences in parasite transmission intensity influence the process of acquisition of host immunity to Plasmodium falciparum malaria and ultimately, the rate of malaria related morbidity and mortality. Potential vaccines being designed to complement current intervention efforts therefore need to be evaluated against different malaria endemicity backgrounds. The associations between antibody responses to the chimeric merozoite surface protein 1 block 2 hybrid (MSP1 hybrid), glutamate-rich protein region 2 (GLURP R2) and the peptide AS202.11, and the risk of malaria were assessed in children living in malaria hyperendemic (Burkina Faso, n = 354) and hypo-endemic (Ghana, n = 209) areas. Using the same reagent lots and standardized protocols for both study sites, immunoglobulin (Ig) M, IgG and IgG sub-class levels to each antigen were measured by ELISA in plasma from the children (aged 6-72 months). Associations between antibody levels and risk of malaria were assessed using Cox regression models adjusting for covariates. There was a significant association between GLURP R2 IgG3 and reduced risk of malaria after adjusting age of children in both the Burkinabe (hazard ratio 0.82; 95 % CI 0.74-0.91, p < 0.0001) and the Ghanaian (HR 0.48; 95 % CI 0.25-0.91, p = 0.02) cohorts. MSP1 hybrid IgM was associated (HR 0.85; 95 % CI 0.73-0.98, p = 0.02) with reduced risk of malaria in Burkina Faso cohort while IgG against AS202.11 in the Ghanaian children was associated with increased risk of malaria (HR 1.29; 95 % CI 1.01-1.65, p = 0.04). These findings support further development of GLURP R2 and MSP1 block 2 hybrid, perhaps as a fusion vaccine antigen targeting malaria blood stage that can be deployed in areas of varying transmission intensity.

Wissensvermehrung durch Konzeptentwicklung? Das Beispiel Vergänglichkeit [The contibution of concept development to nursing knowledge? The example of Transitoriness].

To provide nursing practice with evidence, it is important to understand nursing phenomena in detail. Therefore, good descriptions including the identification of characteristics and attributes of nursing phenomena on various levels of abstraction, i. e., concepts, are needed. In this article the significance of concept development for nursing science will be demonstrated by drawing on the example of 'transitoriness'. The evolutionary concept analysis proposed by Rodgers (2000) is introduced in more detail. Drawing on transitoriness, the phenomenon is presented with the help of the evolutionary concept analysis by Rodgers (2000). The phenomenon's characteristics and attributes are identified, as well as potential areas of application. Moreover, areas are outlined, in which interventions for nursing practice can be developed, implemented and evaluated. Thus, nursing practice is updated to include new findings and innovation. Through concept analysis nursing phenomena can be described in more detail, enhanced or broadened for use in nursing practice. Such structured processes as concept analysis can be employed successfully for other nursing phenomena. Concept analyses can lead to the identification of tasks for the respective scientific discipline and professionals. Thus, concept analyses can lead to the concretisation of tasks in nursing.

Self-reported health needs and use of primary health care services by adolescents enrolled in post-mandatory schools or vocational training programmes in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: The second Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health (SMASH02) was conducted among a representative sample (n = 7428) of students and apprentices aged 16 to 20 from the three language areas of Switzerland during the year 2002. This paper reports on health needs expressed by adolescents and their use of health care services over the 12 months preceding the survey. METHODS: Nineteen cantons representing 80% of the resident population agreed to participate. A complex iterative random cluster sample of 600 classes was drawn with classes as primary sampling unit. The participation rate was 97.7% for the classes and 99.8% for the youths in attendance. The self-administered questionnaire included 565 items. The median rate of item non-response was 1.8%. Ethical and legal requirements applying to surveys of adolescent populations were respected. RESULTS: Overall more than 90% of adolescents felt in good to excellent health. Suffering often or very often from different physical complaints or pain was also reported such as headache (boys: 15.9%, girls: 37.4%), stomach-ache (boys: 9.7%, girls: 30.0%), joint pain (boys: 24.7%, girls: 29.5%) or back pain (boys: 24.3%, girls: 34.7%). Many adolescents reported a need for help on psychosocial and lifestyle issues, such as stress (boys: 28.5%, girls: 47.7%) or depression (boys: 18.9%, girls: 34.4%). Although about 75% of adolescents reported having consulted a general practitioner and about one-third having seen another specialist, reported reasons for visits do not correspond to the expressed needs. Less than 10% of adolescents had visited a psychiatrist, a family planning centre or a social worker. CONCLUSIONS: The reported rates of health services utilisation by adolescents does not match the substantial reported needs for help in various areas. This may indicate that the corresponding problems are not adequately detected and/or addressed by professionals from the health and social sectors.

Effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine during pregnancy on placental malaria, maternal anaemia and birthweight in areas with high and low malaria transmission intensity in Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of IPTp in two areas with different malaria transmission intensities. METHODS: Prospective observational study recruiting pregnant women in two health facilities in areas with high and low malaria transmission intensities. A structured questionnaire was used for interview. Maternal clinic cards and medical logs were assessed to determine drug intake. Placental parasitaemia was screened using both light microscopy and real-time quantitative PCR. RESULTS: Of 350 pregnant women were recruited and screened for placental parasitaemia, 175 from each area. Prevalence of placental parasitaemia was 16.6% (CI 11.4-22.9) in the high transmission area and 2.3% (CI 0.6-5.7) in the low transmission area. Being primigravida and residing in a high transmission area were significant risk factors for placental malaria (OR 2.4; CI 1.1-5.0; P = 0.025) and (OR 9.4; CI 3.2-27.7; P < 0.001), respectively. IPTp was associated with a lower risk of placental malaria (OR 0.3; CI 0.1-1.0; P = 0.044); the effect was more pronounced in the high transmission area (OR 0.2; CI 0.06-0.7; P = 0.015) than in the low transmission area (OR 0.4; CI 0.04-4.5; P = 0.478). IPTp use was not associated with reduced risk of maternal anaemia or low birthweight, regardless of transmission intensity. The number needed to treat (NNT) was four (CI 2-6) women in the high transmission area and 33 (20-50) in the low transmission area to prevent one case of placental malaria. CONCLUSION: IPTp may have an effect on lowering the risk of placental malaria in areas of high transmission, but this effect did not translate into a benefit on risks of maternal anaemia or low birthweight. The NNT needs to be considered, and weighted against that of other protective measures, eventually targeting areas which are above a certain threshold of malaria transmission to maximise the benefit.

Organization of pre-Variscan basement areas at the north-Gondwanan margin

Pre-Variscan basement elements of Central Europe appear in polymetamorphic domains juxtaposed through Variscan and/or Alpine tectonic events. Consequently, nomenclatures and zonations applied to Variscan and Alpine structures, respectively, cannot be valid for pre-Variscan structures. Comparing pre-Variscan relics hidden in the Variscan basement areas of Central Europe, the Alps included, large parallels between the evolution of basement areas of future Avalonia and its former peri-Gondwanan eastern prolongations (e.g. Cadomia, Intra-Alpine Terrane) become evident. Their plate-tectonic evolution from the Late Proterozoic to the Late Ordovician is interpreted as a continuous Gondwana-directed evolution. Cadomian basement, late Cadomian granitoids, late Proterozoic detrital sediments and active margin settings characterize the pre-Cambrian evolution of most of the Gondwana-derived microcontinental pieces. Also the Rheic ocean, separating Avalonia from Gondwana, should have had, at its early stages, a lateral continuation in the former eastern prolongation of peri-Gondwanan microcontinents (e.g. Cadomia, Intra-Alpine Terrane). Subduction of oceanic ridge (Proto-Tethys) triggered the break-off of Avalonia, whereas in the eastern prolongation, the presence of the ridge may have triggered the amalgamation of volcanic arcs and continental ribbons with Gondwana (Ordovician orogenic event). Renewed Gondwana-directed subduction led to the opening of Palaeo-Tethys.

Cyclododecane exposure in the field of conservation and restoration of art objects

PURPOSE: Recent work practices in the conservation and restoration involve the use of cyclododecane (CDD, CAS 294-62-2) to protect fragile artifacts during their handling or transportation. Little is known about its toxicity, and no previous exposure has been reported. A short field investigation was conducted to characterize the exposure conditions to both CDD vapors and aerosols.METHODS: Measurements were conducted in the laboratory of conservation and restoration of the archeological service in Bern (Switzerland). Three indoor and four outdoor typical work situations, either during brush or spray gun applications, were investigated. Measurements were performed on charcoal adsorbent tube and analyzed by a gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector.RESULTS: Measurements have been conducted during both brush and spray gun applications. Indoor exposures were of 0.75-15.5 mg/m(3), while outdoors exposures were 19.5-53.9 mg/m(3). Exposures appear to be extremely localized due to both physicochemical properties and application methods of the CDD. Vapor exposure increases dramatically with the confinement of the workplace.CONCLUSION: Preventive measures should be undertaken to limit as much as possible these exposures. Field work in confined areas (ditches, underground) is of particular concern. CDD-coated artifacts or materials should be stored in ventilated areas to avoid delayed exposures. [Authors]

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

Oxygen tension controls the expression of the monocarboxylate transporter MCT4 in cultured mouse cortical astrocytes via a hypoxia-inducible factor-1α-mediated transcriptional regulation.

The monocarboxylate transporter MCT4 is a high capacity carrier important for lactate release from highly glycolytic cells. In the central nervous system, MCT4 is predominantly expressed by astrocytes. Surprisingly, MCT4 expression in cultured astrocytes is low, suggesting that a physiological characteristic, not met in culture conditions, is necessary. Here we demonstrate that reducing oxygen concentration from 21% to either 1 or 0% restored in a concentration-dependent manner the expression of MCT4 at the mRNA and protein levels in cultured astrocytes. This effect was specific for MCT4 since the expression of MCT1, the other astrocytic monocarboxylate transporter present in vitro, was not altered in such conditions. MCT4 expression was shown to be controlled by the transcription factor hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) since under low oxygen levels, transfecting astrocyte cultures with a siRNA targeting HIF-1α largely prevented MCT4 induction. Moreover, the prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor dimethyloxalylglycine (DMOG) induced MCT4 expression in astrocytes cultured in presence of 21% oxygen. In parallel, glycolytic activity was enhanced by exposure to 1% oxygen as demonstrated by the increased lactate release, an effect dependent on MCT4 expression. Finally, MCT4 expression was found to be necessary for astrocyte survival when exposed for a prolonged period to 1% oxygen. These data suggest that a major determinant of astrocyte MCT4 expression in vivo is likely the oxygen tension. This could be relevant in areas of high neuronal activity and oxygen consumption, favouring astrocytic lactate supply to neurons. Moreover, it could also play an important role for neuronal recovery after an ischemic episode.