Subgroup analyses in randomised controlled trials: cohort study on trial protocols and journal publications

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the planning of subgroup analyses in protocols of randomised controlled trials and the agreement with corresponding full journal publications. DESIGN: Cohort of protocols of randomised controlled trial and subsequent full journal publications. SETTING: Six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. DATA SOURCES: 894 protocols of randomised controlled trial involving patients approved by participating research ethics committees between 2000 and 2003 and 515 subsequent full journal publications. RESULTS: Of 894 protocols of randomised controlled trials, 252 (28.2%) included one or more planned subgroup analyses. Of those, 17 (6.7%) provided a clear hypothesis for at least one subgroup analysis, 10 (4.0%) anticipated the direction of a subgroup effect, and 87 (34.5%) planned a statistical test for interaction. Industry sponsored trials more often planned subgroup analyses compared with investigator sponsored trials (195/551 (35.4%) v 57/343 (16.6%), P<0.001). Of 515 identified journal publications, 246 (47.8%) reported at least one subgroup analysis. In 81 (32.9%) of the 246 publications reporting subgroup analyses, authors stated that subgroup analyses were prespecified, but this was not supported by 28 (34.6%) corresponding protocols. In 86 publications, authors claimed a subgroup effect, but only 36 (41.9%) corresponding protocols reported a planned subgroup analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Subgroup analyses are insufficiently described in the protocols of randomised controlled trials submitted to research ethics committees, and investigators rarely specify the anticipated direction of subgroup effects. More than one third of statements in publications of randomised controlled trials about subgroup prespecification had no documentation in the corresponding protocols. Definitive judgments regarding credibility of claimed subgroup effects are not possible without access to protocols and analysis plans of randomised controlled trials.

The Enigma of the Silent Closing of Acts (28,16-31)

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) In the first volume of this long-anticipated collection by Moessner and Tiede, seventeen leading scholars of antiquity present an amazing "sea change" of opinion that Luke is indeed the interpreter of Israel. The book represents an unprecedented international consensus that the Hellenistic author Luke composed a carefully crafted narrative in two parts to claim Jesus of Nazareth as Israel's true heritage and enduring legacy to the world. Part One explores the nature of Luke's prologues and his intention to write a narrative of "events brought to fruition," using the narrative conventions and audience expectations of the Greco-Roman milieu. Part Two illuminates the relation of Luke's second "volume" to the first by inquiring about the consistency and coherence of his narrative-thematic strategies in retelling the story of Israel's legacy of "the Christ." Whether Luke completed Acts, the larger role of Paul and, most significantly, the meaning of Israel by the end of Acts are approached from new perspectives and charged with provocative insights. In addition to the volume editors, the contributors include L. Alexander, D. Schmidt, V. Robbins, C. Thornton, R. Pervo, W. Kurz, C. Holladay, G. Sterling, D. Balch, E. Plmacher, Charles H. Talbert, J.H. Hayes, D. Marguerat, M. Wolter, R. Tannehill, and I. H. Marshall.

Outcomes and reoperations after total correction of complete atrio-ventricular septal defect

BACKGROUND: Surgical correction of complete atrio-ventricular septal defect (AVSD) achieves satisfactory results with low morbidity and mortality, but may require reoperation. Our recent operative results at mid-term were followed-up. METHODS: From June 2000 to December 2007, 81 patients (Down syndrome; n=60), median age 4.0 months (range 0.7-118.6) and weight 4.7kg (range 2.2-33), underwent complete AVSD correction. Patch closure for the ventricular septal defect (VSD; n=69) and atrial septal defect (ASD; n=42) was performed with left atrio-ventricular valve (LAVV) cleft closure (n=76) and right atrio-ventricular valve (RAVV) repair (n=57). Mortality, morbidity, and indications for reoperation were retrospectively studied; the end point 'time to reoperation' was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Follow-up was complete except in two patients and spanned a median of 28 months (range 0.4-6.1 years). RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 3.7% (n=3) and one late death occurred. Reoperation was required in 7/79 patients (8.9%) for LAVV insufficiency (n=4), for a residual ASD (n=1), for right atrio-ventricular valve insufficiency (n=1), and for subaortic stenosis (n=1). At last follow-up, no or only mild LAVV and RAVV insufficiency was present in 81.3% and 92.1% of patients, respectively, and 2/3 of patients were medication-free. Risk factors for reoperation were younger age (<3 months; p=0.001) and lower weight (<4kg; p=0.003), and a trend towards less and later reoperations in Down syndrome (p<0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Surgical correction of AVSD can be achieved with low mortality and need for reoperation, regardless of Down syndrome or not. Immediate postoperative moderate or more residual atrio-ventricular valve insufficiency will eventually require a reoperation, and could be anticipated in patients younger than 3 months and weighing <4kg.

Differences in self-reported prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors in Switzerland, 2007

Purpose: To assess the prevalence of four self-reported cardiovascular risk factors (CV RFs: smoking, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes) and their reported management in seven Swiss regions (Léman, MiUelland, Zurich, North-West Switzerland, Oriental Switzerland, Central Switzerland and Tessin). Methods: National health interview survey conducted in 2007 in a representative sample of the Swiss population (17,879 subjects). Age-adjusted data on prevalence of self-reported CV RFs, treatment among participants reporting a RF, control of RFs among treated participants and CV RF screening in the last 12 months levels were computed after weighting. Results: The prevalence of hypertension was highest in North-West Switzerland (27.3%) and lowest in Central Switzerland (21.0%, p<0.001). Antihypertensive treatment was highest in Léman region (62.7%) and lowest in Oriental Switzerland (55.2%, p<0.001). Screening was higher in Tessin (89.3%) and lowest in Léman region (81.8%, p<0.001). Prevalence of dyslipidaemia was highest in Tessin and Léman region (20.7% and 20.1 %, respectively) and lowest in Oriental Switzerland (14.5%, p<0.001). Lipid-Iowering treatment was highest in Tessin and Léman region (44.3% each) and lowest in Central Switzerland (30.7%, p<0.001). Dyslipidaemia screening was highest in Tessin (76.6%) and lowest in Central Switzerland (58.6%, p<0.001). Prevalence of diabetes was highest in North-West Switzerland (5.4%) and lowest in Central Switzerland (3.3%, p<0.05). Diabetes screening was highest in Tessin (78.1%) and lowest in Oriental Switzerland (64.0%, p<0.001). Conversely, no between-region differences were found for hypertension or dyslipidaemia control (see table). Conclusion: there are significant differences between the Swiss regions in self-reported prevalence and management of CV RFs. Screening is beUer in Tessin than in the other regions.

The NLRP3 inflammasome in health and disease: the good, the bad and the ugly.

While interleukin (IL)-1β plays an important role in combating the invading pathogen as part of the innate immune response, its dysregulation is responsible for a number of autoinflammatory disorders. Large IL-1β activating platforms, known as inflammasomes, can assemble in response to the detection of endogenous host and pathogen-associated danger molecules. Formation of these protein complexes results in the autocatalysis and activation of caspase-1, which processes precursor IL-1β into its secreted biologically active form. Inflammasome and IL-1β activity is required to efficiently control viral, bacterial and fungal pathogen infections. Conversely, excess IL-1β activity contributes to human disease, and its inhibition has proved therapeutically beneficial in the treatment of a spectrum of serious, yet relatively rare, heritable inflammasomopathies. Recently, inflammasome function has been implicated in more common human conditions, such as gout, type II diabetes and cancer. This raises the possibility that anti-IL-1 therapeutics may have broader applications than anticipated previously, and may be utilized across diverse disease states that are linked insidiously through unwanted or heightened inflammasome activity.

Prognostic ability of practitioners of traditional arabic medicine: comparison with Western methods through a relative patient progress scale.

The ancient Greek medical theory based on balance or imbalance of humors disappeared in the western world, but does survive elsewhere. Is this survival related to a certain degree of health care efficiency? We explored this hypothesis through a study of classical Greco-Arab medicine in Mauritania. Modern general practitioners evaluated the safety and effectiveness of classical Arabic medicine in a Mauritanian traditional clinic, with a prognosis/follow-up method allowing the following comparisons: (i) actual patient progress (clinical outcome) compared with what the traditional 'tabib' had anticipated (= prognostic ability) and (ii) patient progress compared with what could be hoped for if the patient were treated by a modern physician in the same neighborhood. The practice appeared fairly safe and, on average, clinical outcome was similar to what could be expected with modern medicine. In some cases, patient progress was better than expected. The ability to correctly predict an individual's clinical outcome did not seem to be better along modern or Greco-Arab theories. Weekly joint meetings (modern and traditional practitioners) were spontaneously organized with a modern health centre in the neighborhood. Practitioners of a different medical system can predict patient progress. For the patient, avoiding false expectations with health care and ensuring appropriate referral may be the most important. Prognosis and outcome studies such as the one presented here may help to develop institutions where patients find support in making their choices, not only among several treatment options, but also among several medical systems.

Prevention du diabète de type 2: état des connaissances [Prevention of type 2 diabetes: where do we stand?]

It is anticipated that one out of 3 children born in the year 2000 in the United States may develop diabetes. In Switzerland, a population based study in the city of Lausanne (CoLaus) has shown that about 30% of the participants have abnormal glucose homeostasis, and that the prevalence of obesity in the younger age groups has doubled since 1992. In this review, we describe clinical and biological factors associated with an increased risk to develop diabetes and summarize the most important intervention studies that have shown a beneficial effect in the prevention of diabetes. While life style modifications should be recommended for everybody, the place of pharmacological interventions (oral hypoglycemic agents, blood pressure and cholesterol lowering agents) is more controversial.

Atrial arrhythmias in adults with congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Atrial arrhythmias increase disease burden in the general adult population. Adults with congenital heart lesions constitute a rapidly growing group of patients with cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that atrial arrhythmias increase with age and impair health outcomes in this population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a population-based analysis of prevalence, lifetime risk, mortality, and morbidity associated with atrial arrhythmias in adults with congenital heart disease from l983 to 2005. In 38 428 adults with congenital heart disease in 2005, 5812 had atrial arrhythmias. Overall, the 20-year risk of developing atrial arrhythmia was 7% in a 20-year-old subject and 38% in a 50-year-old subject. More than 50% of patients with severe congenital heart disease reaching age 18 years developed atrial arrhythmias by age 65 years. In patients with congenital heart disease, the hazard ratio of any adverse event in those with atrial arrhythmias compared with those without was 2.50 (95% confidence interval, 2.38 to 2.62; P<0.0001), with a near 50% increase in mortality (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.37 to 1.58; P<0.001), more than double the risk of morbidity (stroke or heart failure) (hazard ratio, 2.21; 95% confidence interval, 2.07 to 2.36; P<0.001), and 3 times the risk of cardiac interventions (hazard ratio, 3.00; 95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.20; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Atrial arrhythmias occurred in 15% of adults with congenital heart disease. The lifetime incidence increased steadily with age and was associated with a doubling of the risk of adverse events. An increase in resource allocation should be anticipated to deal with this increasing burden.

Paper money and national distress: William Huskisson and the early theories of credit, speculation and crises

This paper examines the explanation of commercial crises offered by William Huskisson in 1810 in the wake of the debate on the Bullion Report. Huskisson argued that the suspension of convertibility made it possible to extend issues of paper currency beyond its proper limits. Such an expansion, being in the interest of all parties concerned, would actually take place and stimulate excessive speculations, which would eventually prove unsustainable and bring generalized ruin and distress. Although some elements of this explanations were not new (having been anticipated by writers sucha as James Currie in 1793, William Roscoe in 1793, William Anderson in 1797 and an anonymous in 1796), Huskisson's explanation is more systematic and better organized, and his emphasis on the endogenous character of the crisis and on the instability of the dynamics of trade and credit makes it an interesting foreshadower of the theories of crises that were advanced half a century later.

Cerebellar transcranial direct current stimulation modulates verbal working memory.

BACKGROUND: Neuroimaging studies show cerebellar activations in a wide range of cognitive tasks and patients with cerebellar lesions often present cognitive deficits suggesting a cerebellar role in higher-order cognition. OBJECTIVE: We used cathodal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), known to inhibit neuronal excitability, over the cerebellum to investigate if cathodal tDCS impairs verbal working memory, an important higher-order cognitive faculty. METHOD: We tested verbal working memory as measured by forward and backward digit spans in 40 healthy young participants before and after applying cathodal tDCS (2 mA, stimulation duration 25 min) to the right cerebellum using a randomized, sham-controlled, double-blind, cross-over design. In addition, we tested the effect of cerebellar tDCS on word reading, finger tapping and a visually cued sensorimotor task. RESULTS: In line with lower digit spans in patients with cerebellar lesions, cerebellar tDCS reduced forward digit spans and blocked the practice dependent increase in backward digit spans. No effects of tDCS on word reading, finger tapping or the visually cued sensorimotor task were found. CONCLUSION: Our results support the view that the cerebellum contributes to verbal working memory as measured by forward and backward digit spans. Moreover, the induction of reversible "virtual cerebellar lesions" in healthy individuals by means of tDCS may improve our understanding of the mechanistic basis of verbal working memory deficits in patients with cerebellar lesions.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Y-688, a new quinolone active against quinolone-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: lack of in vivo efficacy in experimental endocarditis.

Y-688 is a new fluoroquinolone with increased activity against ciprofloxacin-resistant staphylococci. The MICs of Y-688 and other quinolones were determined for 58 isolates of ciprofloxacin-resistant and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). The MICs at which 50% and 90% of bacteria were inhibited were &gt;/=128 and &gt;/=128 mg/liter, respectively, for ciprofloxacin, 16 and 32 mg/liter, respectively, for sparfloxacin, and 0.25 and 1 mg/liter, respectively, for Y-688. This new quinolone was further tested in rats with experimental endocarditis due to either of two isolates of ciprofloxacin-resistant MRSA (namely, P8/128 and CR1). Infected animals were treated for 3 days with ciprofloxacin, vancomycin, or Y-688. Antibiotics were administered through a computerized pump to simulate human-like pharmacokinetics in the serum of rats. The anticipated peak and trough levels of Y-688 were 4 and 1 mg/liter at 0.5 and 12 h, respectively. Treatment with ciprofloxacin was ineffective. Vancomycin significantly decreased vegetation bacterial counts for both organisms (P less, similar 0.05). In contrast, Y-688 only marginally decreased vegetation bacterial counts (P greater, similar 0.05). Moreover, several vegetation that failed Y-688 treatment grew staphylococci for which the MICs of the test antibiotic were increased two to eight times. Y-688 also selected for resistance in vitro, and isolates for which the MICs were increased eight times emerged at a frequency of ca. 10(-8). Thus, in spite of its low MIC for ciprofloxacin-resistant MRSA, Y-688 failed in vivo and its use carried the risk of resistance selection. The fact that ciprofloxacin-resistant staphylococci became rapidly resistant to this potent new drug suggests that the treatment of ciprofloxacin-resistant MRSA with new quinolones might be more problematic than expected.

Trends in self-reported prevalence and management of hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes in adults in Switzerland, 1992-2007

Purpose: to assess the trends of self-reported prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CV RFs: hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes) and their management for period 1992 to 2007 in the Swiss population. Methods: four National health interview surveys conducted between 1992 and 2007 in representative samples of the Swiss population (63,782 subjects overall). Self-reported CV RFs prevalence, treatment and controllevels were computed after weighting. Weights were calculated by raking ratio such that the marginal distribution of the weighted totals conforms to the marginal distribution of the targeted population. Multivariate analysis adjusted on age, sex, education, nationality and SMI was conducted using logistic regression. Results: prevalence of ail CV RFs increased between 1992 and 2007, see table. Although the self-reported prevalence of treatment among subjects with CV RFs increased, and this was confirmed by multivariate analysis: OR for hypocholesterolaemic treatment relative to 1992: 0.64 [0.52-0.78]; 1.39 [1.18-1.65] and 2.00 [1.69-2.36] for 1997, 2002 and 2007, respectively. Still, in 2007, circa 40% of hypertensive, 60% of dyslipidaemic and 50% of diabetic subjects weren't treated. Conversely, an adequate control of CV RFs was reported by treated subjects, with an increase during the study period. This increase was confirmed by multivariate analysis (not shown). Conclusion: the self-reported prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes increased between 1992 and 2007 in the Swiss population. Despite a good control of treated subjects, still a significant percentage of subjects with CV RFs are not treated.