52 resultados para allocation of risks
em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
Resumo:
The emergence of powerful new technologies, the existence of large quantities of data, and increasing demands for the extraction of added value from these technologies and data have created a number of significant challenges for those charged with both corporate and information technology management. The possibilities are great, the expectations high, and the risks significant. Organisations seeking to employ cloud technologies and exploit the value of the data to which they have access, be this in the form of "Big Data" available from different external sources or data held within the organisation, in structured or unstructured formats, need to understand the risks involved in such activities. Data owners have responsibilities towards the subjects of the data and must also, frequently, demonstrate that they are in compliance with current standards, laws and regulations. This thesis sets out to explore the nature of the technologies that organisations might utilise, identify the most pertinent constraints and risks, and propose a framework for the management of data from discovery to external hosting that will allow the most significant risks to be managed through the definition, implementation, and performance of appropriate internal control activities.
Resumo:
This research examines the impacts of the Swiss reform of the allocation of tasks which was accepted in 2004 and implemented in 2008 to "re-assign" the responsibilities between the federal government and the cantons. The public tasks were redistributed, according to the leading and fundamental principle of subsidiarity. Seven tasks came under exclusive federal responsibility; ten came under the control of the cantons; and twenty-two "common tasks" were allocated to both the Confederation and the cantons. For these common tasks it wasn't possible to separate the management and the implementation. In order to deal with nineteen of them, the reform introduced the conventions-programs (CPs), which are public law contracts signed by the Confederation with each canton. These CPs are generally valid for periods of four years (2008-11, 2012-15 and 2016-19, respectively). The third period is currently being prepared. By using the principal-agent theory I examine how contracts can improve political relations between a principal (Confederation) and an agent (canton). I also provide a first qualitative analysis by examining the impacts of these contracts on the vertical cooperation and on the implication of different actors by focusing my study on five CPs - protection of cultural heritage and conservation of historic monuments, encouragement of the integration of foreigners, economic development, protection against noise and protection of the nature and landscape - applied in five cantons, which represents twenty-five cases studies.
Resumo:
The primary function of secondary plant metabolites is thought to be defence against herbivores. The frequent occurrence of these same noxious compounds in floral nectar, which functions primarily to attract pollinators, has been seen as paradoxical. Although these compounds may have an adaptive purpose in nectar, they may also occur as a nonadaptive consequence of chemical defence in other plant parts. If nectar chemistry reflects physiological constraints or passive leakage from other tissues, we expect that the identity and relative concentration of nectar cardenolides to be correlated with those of other plant parts; in contrast, discordant distributions of compounds in nectar and other tissues may suggest adaptive roles in nectar. We compared the concentrations and identities of cardenolides in the nectar, leaves and flowers of 12 species from a monophyletic clade of Asclepias. To measure putative toxicity of nectar cardenolides, we then examined the effects of a standard cardenolide (digoxin) on the behaviour of bumblebees, a common generalist pollinator of Asclepias. We found that the average cardenolide concentrations in nectar, leaves and flowers of the 12 Asclepias species were positively correlated as predicted by nonadaptive hypotheses. However, significant differences in the identities and concentrations of individual cardenolides between nectar and leaves suggest that the production or allocation of cardenolides may be independently regulated at each plant part. In addition, cardenolide concentrations in leaves and nectar exhibited no phylogenetic signal. Surprisingly, bumblebees did not demonstrate an aversion to digoxin-rich nectar, which may indicate that nectar cardenolides have little effect on pollination. Although the idea that discordant patterns of secondary metabolites across tissue types may signal adaptive functions is attractive, there is evidence to suggest constraint contributes to nectar secondary chemistry. Further work testing the ecological impacts of such patterns will be critical in determining the functional significance of nectar cardenolides
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To provide an update to the original Surviving Sepsis Campaign clinical management guidelines, "Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock," published in 2004. DESIGN: Modified Delphi method with a consensus conference of 55 international experts, several subsequent meetings of subgroups and key individuals, teleconferences, and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee. This process was conducted independently of any industry funding. METHODS: We used the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system to guide assessment of quality of evidence from high (A) to very low (D) and to determine the strength of recommendations. A strong recommendation (1) indicates that an intervention's desirable effects clearly outweigh its undesirable effects (risk, burden, cost) or clearly do not. Weak recommendations (2) indicate that the tradeoff between desirable and undesirable effects is less clear. The grade of strong or weak is considered of greater clinical importance than a difference in letter level of quality of evidence. In areas without complete agreement, a formal process of resolution was developed and applied. Recommendations are grouped into those directly targeting severe sepsis, recommendations targeting general care of the critically ill patient that are considered high priority in severe sepsis, and pediatric considerations. RESULTS: Key recommendations, listed by category, include early goal-directed resuscitation of the septic patient during the first 6 hrs after recognition (1C); blood cultures before antibiotic therapy (1C); imaging studies performed promptly to confirm potential source of infection (1C); administration of broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy within 1 hr of diagnosis of septic shock (1B) and severe sepsis without septic shock (1D); reassessment of antibiotic therapy with microbiology and clinical data to narrow coverage, when appropriate (1C); a usual 7-10 days of antibiotic therapy guided by clinical response (1D); source control with attention to the balance of risks and benefits of the chosen method (1C); administration of either crystalloid or colloid fluid resuscitation (1B); fluid challenge to restore mean circulating filling pressure (1C); reduction in rate of fluid administration with rising filing pressures and no improvement in tissue perfusion (1D); vasopressor preference for norepinephrine or dopamine to maintain an initial target of mean arterial pressure > or = 65 mm Hg (1C); dobutamine inotropic therapy when cardiac output remains low despite fluid resuscitation and combined inotropic/vasopressor therapy (1C); stress-dose steroid therapy given only in septic shock after blood pressure is identified to be poorly responsive to fluid and vasopressor therapy (2C); recombinant activated protein C in patients with severe sepsis and clinical assessment of high risk for death (2B except 2C for postoperative patients). In the absence of tissue hypoperfusion, coronary artery disease, or acute hemorrhage, target a hemoglobin of 7-9 g/dL (1B); a low tidal volume (1B) and limitation of inspiratory plateau pressure strategy (1C) for acute lung injury (ALI)/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); application of at least a minimal amount of positive end-expiratory pressure in acute lung injury (1C); head of bed elevation in mechanically ventilated patients unless contraindicated (1B); avoiding routine use of pulmonary artery catheters in ALI/ARDS (1A); to decrease days of mechanical ventilation and ICU length of stay, a conservative fluid strategy for patients with established ALI/ARDS who are not in shock (1C); protocols for weaning and sedation/analgesia (1B); using either intermittent bolus sedation or continuous infusion sedation with daily interruptions or lightening (1B); avoidance of neuromuscular blockers, if at all possible (1B); institution of glycemic control (1B), targeting a blood glucose < 150 mg/dL after initial stabilization (2C); equivalency of continuous veno-veno hemofiltration or intermittent hemodialysis (2B); prophylaxis for deep vein thrombosis (1A); use of stress ulcer prophylaxis to prevent upper gastrointestinal bleeding using H2 blockers (1A) or proton pump inhibitors (1B); and consideration of limitation of support where appropriate (1D). Recommendations specific to pediatric severe sepsis include greater use of physical examination therapeutic end points (2C); dopamine as the first drug of choice for hypotension (2C); steroids only in children with suspected or proven adrenal insufficiency (2C); and a recommendation against the use of recombinant activated protein C in children (1B). CONCLUSIONS: There was strong agreement among a large cohort of international experts regarding many level 1 recommendations for the best current care of patients with severe sepsis. Evidenced-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the first step toward improved outcomes for this important group of critically ill patients.
Resumo:
Syrian dry areas have been for several millennia a place of interaction between human populations and the environment. If environmental constraints and heterogeneity condition the human occupation and exploitation of resources, socio-political, economic and historical elements play a fundamental role. Since the late 1980s, Syrian dry areas are viewed as suffering a serious water crisis, due to groundwater overdraft. The Syrian administration and international development agencies believe that groundwater overexploitation is also leading to a decline of agricultural activities and to poverty increase. Action is thus required to address these problems.However, the overexploitation diagnosis needs to be reviewed. The overexploitation discourse appears in the context of Syria's opening to international organizations and to the market economy. It echoes the international discourse of "global water crisis". The diagnosis is based on national indicators recycling old Soviet data that has not been updated. In the post-Soviet era, the Syrian national water policy seems to abandon large surface water irrigation projects in favor of a strategy of water use rationalization and groundwater conservation in crisis regions, especially in the district of Salamieh.This groundwater conservation policy has a number of inconsistencies. It is justified for the administration and also probably for international donors, since it responds to an indisputable environmental emergency. However, efforts to conserve water are anecdotal or even counterproductive. The water conservation policy appears a posteriori as an extension of the national policy of food self-sufficiency. The dominant interpretation of overexploitation, and more generally of the water crisis, prevents any controversary approach of the status of resources and of the agricultural system in general and thus destroys any attempt to discuss alternatives with respect to groundwater management, allocation, and their inclusion in development programs.A revisited diagnosis of the situation needs to take into account spatial and temporal dimensions of the groundwater exploitation and to analyze the co-evolution of hydrogeological and agricultural systems. It should highlight the adjustments adopted to cope with environmental and economic variability, changes of water availability and regulatory measures enforcements. These elements play an important role for water availability and for the spatial, temporal, sectoral allocation of water resource. The groundwater exploitation in the last century has obviously had an impact on the environment, but the changes are not necessarily catastrophic.The current groundwater use in central Syria increases the uncertainty by reducing the ability of aquifers to buffer climatic changes. However, the climatic factor is not the only source of uncertainty. The high volatility of commodity prices, fuel, land and water, depending on the market but also on the will (and capacity) of the Syrian State to preserve social peace is a strong source of uncertainty. The research should consider the whole range of possibilities and propose alternatives that take into consideration the risks they imply for the water users, the political will to support or not the local access to water - thus involving a redefinition of the economic and social objectives - and finally the ability of international organizations to reconsider pre-established diagnoses.
Resumo:
Summary : Division of labour is one of the most fascinating aspects of social insects. The efficient allocation of individuals to a multitude of different tasks requires a dynamic adjustment in response to the demands of a changing environment. A considerable number of theoretical models have focussed on identifying the mechanisms allowing colonies to perform efficient task allocation. The large majority of these models are built on the observation that individuals in a colony vary in their propensity (response threshold) to perform different tasks. Since individuals with a low threshold for a given task stimulus are more likely to perform that task than individuals with a high threshold, infra-colony variation in individual thresholds results in colony division of labour. These theoretical models suggest that variation in individual thresholds is affected by the within-colony genetic diversity. However, the models have not considered the genetic architecture underlying the individual response thresholds. This is important because a better understanding of division of labour requires determining how genotypic variation relates to differences in infra-colony response threshold distributions. In this thesis, we investigated the combined influence on task allocation efficiency of both, the within-colony genetic variability (stemming from variation in the number of matings by queens) and the number of genes underlying the response thresholds. We used an agent-based simulator to model a situation where workers in a colony had to perform either a regulatory task (where the amount of a given food item in the colony had to be maintained within predefined bounds) or a foraging task (where the quantity of a second type of food item collected had to be the highest possible). The performance of colonies was a function of workers being able to perform both tasks efficiently. To study the effect of within-colony genetic diversity, we compared the performance of colonies with queens mated with varying number of males. On the other hand, the influence of genetic architecture was investigated by varying the number of loci underlying the response threshold of the foraging and regulatory tasks. Artificial evolution was used to evolve the allelic values underlying the tasks thresholds. The results revealed that multiple matings always translated into higher colony performance, whatever the number of loci encoding the thresholds of the regulatory and foraging tasks. However, the beneficial effect of additional matings was particularly important when the genetic architecture of queens comprised one or few genes for the foraging task's threshold. By contrast, higher number of genes encoding the foraging task reduced colony performance with the detrimental effect being stronger when queens had mated with several males. Finally, the number of genes determining the threshold for the regulatory task only had a minor but incremental effect on colony performance. Overall, our numerical experiments indicate the importance of considering the effects of queen mating frequency, genetic architecture underlying task thresholds and the type of task performed when investigating the factors regulating the efficiency of division of labour in social insects. In this thesis we also investigate the task allocation efficiency of response threshold models and compare them with neural networks. While response threshold models are widely used amongst theoretical biologists interested in division of labour in social insects, our simulation reveals that they perform poorly compared to a neural network model. A major shortcoming of response thresholds is that they fail at one of the most crucial requirement of division of labour, the ability of individuals in a colony to efficiently switch between tasks under varying environmental conditions. Moreover, the intrinsic properties of the threshold models are that they lead to a large proportion of idle workers. Our results highlight these limitations of the response threshold models and provide an adequate substitute. Altogether, the experiments presented in this thesis provide novel contributions to the understanding of how division of labour in social insects is influenced by queen mating frequency and genetic architecture underlying worker task thresholds. Moreover, the thesis also provides a novel model of the mechanisms underlying worker task allocation that maybe more generally applicable than the widely used response threshold models. Resumé : La répartition du travail est l'un des aspects les plus fascinants des insectes vivant en société. Une allocation efficace de la multitude de différentes tâches entre individus demande un ajustement dynamique afin de répondre aux exigences d'un environnement en constant changement. Un nombre considérable de modèles théoriques se sont attachés à identifier les mécanismes permettant aux colonies d'effectuer une allocation efficace des tâches. La grande majorité des ces modèles sont basés sur le constat que les individus d'une même colonie diffèrent dans leur propension (inclination à répondre) à effectuer différentes tâches. Etant donné que les individus possédant un faible seuil de réponse à un stimulus associé à une tâche donnée sont plus disposés à effectuer cette dernière que les individus possédant un seuil élevé, les différences de seuils parmi les individus vivant au sein d'une même colonie mènent à une certaine répartition du travail. Ces modèles théoriques suggèrent que la variation des seuils des individus est affectée par la diversité génétique propre à la colonie. Cependant, ces modèles ne considèrent pas la structure génétique qui est à la base des seuils de réponse individuels. Ceci est très important car une meilleure compréhension de la répartition du travail requière de déterminer de quelle manière les variations génotypiques sont associées aux différentes distributions de seuils de réponse à l'intérieur d'une même colonie. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous étudions l'influence combinée de la variabilité génétique d'une colonie (qui prend son origine dans la variation du nombre d'accouplements des reines) avec le nombre de gènes supportant les seuils de réponse, vis-à-vis de la performance de l'allocation des tâches. Nous avons utilisé un simulateur basé sur des agents pour modéliser une situation où les travailleurs d'une colonie devaient accomplir une tâche de régulation (1a quantité d'une nourriture donnée doit être maintenue à l'intérieur d'un certain intervalle) ou une tâche de recherche de nourriture (la quantité d'une certaine nourriture doit être accumulée autant que possible). Dans ce contexte, 'efficacité des colonies tient en partie des travailleurs qui sont capable d'effectuer les deux tâches de manière efficace. Pour étudier l'effet de la diversité génétique d'une colonie, nous comparons l'efficacité des colonies possédant des reines qui s'accouplent avec un nombre variant de mâles. D'autre part, l'influence de la structure génétique a été étudiée en variant le nombre de loci à la base du seuil de réponse des deux tâches de régulation et de recherche de nourriture. Une évolution artificielle a été réalisée pour évoluer les valeurs alléliques qui sont à l'origine de ces seuils de réponse. Les résultats ont révélé que de nombreux accouplements se traduisaient toujours en une plus grande performance de la colonie, quelque soit le nombre de loci encodant les seuils des tâches de régulation et de recherche de nourriture. Cependant, les effets bénéfiques d'accouplements additionnels ont été particulièrement important lorsque la structure génétique des reines comprenait un ou quelques gènes pour le seuil de réponse pour la tâche de recherche de nourriture. D'autre part, un nombre plus élevé de gènes encodant la tâche de recherche de nourriture a diminué la performance de la colonie avec un effet nuisible d'autant plus fort lorsque les reines s'accouplent avec plusieurs mâles. Finalement, le nombre de gènes déterminant le seuil pour la tâche de régulation eu seulement un effet mineur mais incrémental sur la performance de la colonie. Pour conclure, nos expériences numériques révèlent l'importance de considérer les effets associés à la fréquence d'accouplement des reines, à la structure génétique qui est à l'origine des seuils de réponse pour les tâches ainsi qu'au type de tâche effectué au moment d'étudier les facteurs qui régulent l'efficacité de la répartition du travail chez les insectes vivant en communauté. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'efficacité de l'allocation des tâches des modèles prenant en compte des seuils de réponses, et les comparons à des réseaux de neurones. Alors que les modèles basés sur des seuils de réponse sont couramment utilisés parmi les biologistes intéressés par la répartition des tâches chez les insectes vivant en société, notre simulation montre qu'ils se révèlent peu efficace comparé à un modèle faisant usage de réseaux de neurones. Un point faible majeur des seuils de réponse est qu'ils échouent sur un point crucial nécessaire à la répartition des tâches, la capacité des individus d'une colonie à commuter efficacement entre des tâches soumises à des conditions environnementales changeantes. De plus, les propriétés intrinsèques des modèles basés sur l'utilisation de seuils conduisent à de larges populations de travailleurs inactifs. Nos résultats mettent en évidence les limites de ces modèles basés sur l'utilisation de seuils et fournissent un substitut adéquat. Ensemble, les expériences présentées dans cette thèse fournissent de nouvelles contributions pour comprendre comment la répartition du travail chez les insectes vivant en société est influencée par la fréquence d'accouplements des reines ainsi que par la structure génétique qui est à l'origine, pour un travailleur, du seuil de réponse pour une tâche. De plus, cette thèse fournit également un nouveau modèle décrivant les mécanismes qui sont à l'origine de l'allocation des tâches entre travailleurs, mécanismes qui peuvent être appliqué de manière plus générale que ceux couramment utilisés et basés sur des seuils de réponse.
Resumo:
Mendelian randomization refers to the random allocation of alleles at the time of gamete formation. In observational epidemiology, this refers to the use of genetic variants to estimate a causal effect between a modifiable risk factor and an outcome of interest. In this review, we recall the principles of a "Mendelian randomization" approach in observational epidemiology, which is based on the technique of instrumental variables; we provide simulations and an example based on real data to demonstrate its implications; we present the results of a systematic search on original articles having used this approach; and we discuss some limitations of this approach in view of what has been found so far.
Resumo:
Division of labour is one of the most prominent features of social insects. The efficient allocation of individuals to different tasks requires dynamic adjustment in response to environmental perturbations. Theoretical models suggest that the colony-level flexibility in responding to external changes and internal perturbation may depend on the within-colony genetic diversity, which is affected by the number of breeding individuals. However, these models have not considered the genetic architecture underlying the propensity of workers to perform the various tasks. Here, we investigated how both within-colony genetic variability (stemming from variation in the number of matings by queens) and the number of genes influencing the stimulus (threshold) for a given task at which workers begin to perform that task jointly influence task allocation efficiency. We used a numerical agent-based model to investigate the situation where workers had to perform either a regulatory task or a foraging task. One hundred generations of artificial selection in populations consisting of 500 colonies revealed that an increased number of matings always improved colony performance, whatever the number of loci encoding the thresholds of the regulatory and foraging tasks. However, the beneficial effect of additional matings was particularly important when the genetic architecture of queens comprised one or a few genes for the foraging task's threshold. By contrast, a higher number of genes encoding the foraging task reduced colony performance with the detrimental effect being stronger when queens had mated with several males. Finally, the number of genes encoding the threshold for the regulatory task only had a minor effect on colony performance. Overall, our numerical experiments support the importance of mating frequency on efficiency of division of labour and also reveal complex interactions between the number of matings and genetic architecture.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To assess the post-ischemic skin blood flow response after withdrawal of antihypertensive therapy in hypertensive patients with normal blood pressure during treatment. DESIGN AND METHODS: Twenty hypertensive patients (group A) with a normal clinic blood pressure (<140/ 90 mmHg) receiving antihypertensive treatment (any monotherapy; one pill per day for at least 6 months) had their treatment discontinued. Before medication withdrawal and 2, 4, 12 and 24 weeks thereafter, the following measurements were made: clinic blood pressure, home blood pressure (three times per week, morning and evening) and skin blood flow response to a 5 min forearm arterial occlusion (using laser Doppler flowmetry). The patients were asked to perform an ambulatory blood pressure recording at any time if home blood pressure was > or =160/95 mmHg on two consecutive days, and treatment was initiated again, after determination of the skin hyperemic response, if daytime ambulatory blood pressure was > or =140/90 mmHg. The same studies were performed in 20 additional hypertensive individuals in whom antihypertensive treatment was not withdrawn (group B). The allocation of patients to groups A and B was random. RESULTS: The data fom 18 patients in group A who adhered strictly to the procedure were available for analysis. Seven of them had to start treatment again within the first 4 weeks of follow-up; four additional patients started treatment again during the next 8 weeks (group A1). The seven other patients remained untreated (group A2). The skin hyperemic response decreased significantly in patients in group A1 and returned to baseline values at the end of the study, when there were again receiving antihypertensive treatment. In patients in group A2 a significant attenuation of the hyperemic response was also observed. This impaired response was present even at the end of the 6 month follow-up, at which time the patients were still untreated but exhibited a significantly greater blood pressure than before drug discontinuation. The hyperemic response of patients who did not stop treatment (group B) did not change during the course of the study. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show a decrease in the postischemic skin blood flow response after withdrawal of antihypertensive treatment in hypertensive patients. This impaired response may be due to the development of endothelial dysfunction, vascular remodeling, or both, and might contribute to the return of blood pressure to hypertensive values after withdrawal of antihypertensive therapy.
Resumo:
Context: The debate about the balance of risks and benefits of mammography screening has prompted a comprehensive review by an independent panel in the UK. However, the panel's remit did not cover the important economic dimension of breast cancer screening. Methods: The life histories of two cohort studies of 50-year-old women, who would be eligible within the National Health Service (NHS) breast screening programme (NHSBSP), were simulated over 35 years, using a life table approach. One cohort participant was offered screening at age 50 and triennially thereafter until age 70, assuming 75% attendance, while the other received no screening. Based on the findings from the panel's report, the cost-effectiveness of the NHSBSP was assessed for various scenarios of screening effect on breast cancer incidence (base case scenario: screening advances diagnosis by 5 years; 10% incidence reduction after screening stops).
Resumo:
The age-dependent choice between expressing individual learning (IL) or social learning (SL) affects cumulative cultural evolution. A learning schedule in which SL precedes IL is supportive of cumulative culture because the amount of nongenetically encoded adaptive information acquired by previous generations can be absorbed by an individual and augmented. Devoting time and energy to learning, however, reduces the resources available for other life-history components. Learning schedules and life history thus coevolve. Here, we analyze a model where individuals may have up to three distinct life stages: "infants" using IL or oblique SL, "juveniles" implementing IL or horizontal SL, and adults obtaining material resources with learned information. We study the dynamic allocation of IL and SL within life stages and how this coevolves with the length of the learning stages. Although no learning may be evolutionary stable, we find conditions where cumulative cultural evolution can be selected for. In that case, the evolutionary stable learning schedule causes individuals to use oblique SL during infancy and a mixture between IL and horizontal SL when juvenile. We also find that the selected pattern of oblique SL increases the amount of information in the population, but horizontal SL does not do so.