Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences.

Models predicting species spatial distribution are increasingly applied to wildlife management issues, emphasising the need for reliable methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions. As many available datasets (e.g. museums, herbariums, atlas) do not provide reliable information about species absences, several presence-only based analyses have been developed. However, methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions are few and have never been validated. The aim of this paper is to compare existing and new presenceonly evaluators to usual presence/absence measures. We use a reliable, diverse, presence/absence dataset of 114 plant species to test how common presence/absence indices (Kappa, MaxKappa, AUC, adjusted D-2) compare to presenceonly measures (AVI, CVI, Boyce index) for evaluating generalised linear models (GLM). Moreover we propose a new, threshold-independent evaluator, which we call "continuous Boyce index". All indices were implemented in the B10MAPPER software. We show that the presence-only evaluators are fairly correlated (p > 0.7) to the presence/absence ones. The Boyce indices are closer to AUC than to MaxKappa and are fairly insensitive to species prevalence. In addition, the Boyce indices provide predicted-toexpected ratio curves that offer further insights into the model quality: robustness, habitat suitability resolution and deviation from randomness. This information helps reclassifying predicted maps into meaningful habitat suitability classes. The continuous Boyce index is thus both a complement to usual evaluation of presence/absence models and a reliable measure of presence-only based predictions.

Genetic structure of Gymnures (genus Hylomys; Erinaceidae) on continental islands of Southeast Asia: Historical effects of fragmentation

Eustatic sea level changes during Pleistocene climatic fluctuations produced several cycles of connection-isolation among continental islands of the Sunda shelf. To explore the potential effects of these fluctuations, we reconstructed a model of the vicariant events that separated these islands, based on bathymetric information. Among many possible scenarios, two opposite phylogenetic patterns of evolution were predicted for terrestrial organisms living in this region: one is based on the classical allopatric speciation mode of evolution, while the other is the outcome of a sequential dispersal colonization of the archipelago. We tested the applicability of these predictions with an analysis of sequence variation of the cytochrome b gene from several taxa of Hylomys. They were sampled throughout SE-Asia and the Sunda islands. High levels of haplotype differentiation characterize the different island taxa. Such levels of differentiation support the existence of several allopatric species, as was suggested by previous allozyme and morphological data. Also in accordance with previous results, the occurrence of two sympatric species from Sumatra is suggested by their strongly divergent haplotypes. One species, Hylomys suillus maxi, is found both on Sumatra and in Peninsular Malaysia, while the other, H. parvus, is endemic to Sumatra. Its closest relative is H. suillus dorsalis from Borneo. Phylogenetic reconstructions also demonstrate the existence of a Sundaic clade composed of all island taxa, as opposed to those from the continent. Although there is no statistical support for either proposed biogeographic model of evolution, we argue that the sequential dispersal scenario is more appropriate to describe the genetic variation found among the Hylomys taxa. However, despite strong differentiation among island haplotypes, the cladistic relationships between some island taxa could not be resolved. We argue that this is evidence of a rapid radiation, suggesting that the separation of the islands may have been perceived as a simultaneous event rather than as a succession of vicariant events. Furthermore, the estimates of divergence times between the haplotypes of these taxa suggest that this radiation may actually have predated the climatic fluctuations of the Pleistocene. Further refinement of the initial palaeogeographic models of evolution are therefore needed to account for these results.

Biochemical analysis of female mice urine with reference to endocrine function: a key tool for estrus detection.

Species-specific chemical signals released through urine, sweat, saliva and feces are involved in communication between animals. Urinary biochemical constituents along with pheromones may contribute to variation across reproductive cycles and facilitate to estrus detection. Hence, the present study was designed to analyze such biochemical profiles, such as proteins, carbohydrates, lipids, fatty acids, in response with steroid hormones such as estradiol and progesterone. The experimental groups were normal, prepubertal, ovariectomized, and ovariectomized with estrogentreated female mice. In normal mice, the protein and lipid concentrations in urine were significantly higher in proestrus and estrus phases and the quantity of fatty acids was also comparatively higher in estrus. Furthermore, certain fatty acids, namely tridecanoic, palmitic and oleic acids, were present during proestrus and estrus phases, but were exclusively absent in ovariectomized mice. However, the carbohydrate level was equally maintained throughout the four phases of estrous cycle. For successful communication, higher concentrations of protein and specific fatty acids in estrus are directly involved. The significant increase in estradiol at estrus and progesterone at metestrus seems to be of greater importance in the expression pattern of biochemical constituents and may play a notable role in estrous cycle regulation. Thus, we conclude that the variations observed in the concentration of the biochemical constituents depend on the phase of the reproductive cycle as well as hormonal status of animals. The appearance of protein and specific fatty acids during estrus phase raises the possibility to use these as a urinary indicators for estrus detection.

Modelling habitat-suitability using museum collections: an example with three sympatric Apodemus species from the Alps

Aim, Location Although the alpine mouse Apodemus alpicola has been given species status since 1989, no distribution map has ever been constructed for this endemic alpine rodent in Switzerland. Based on redetermined museum material and using the Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), habitat-suitability maps were computed for A. alpicola, and also for the co-occurring A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus. Methods In the particular case of habitat suitability models, classical approaches (GLMs, GAMs, discriminant analysis, etc.) generally require presence and absence data. The presence records provided by museums can clearly give useful information about species distribution and ecology and have already been used for knowledge-based mapping. In this paper, we apply the ENFA which requires only presence data, to build a habitat-suitability map of three species of Apodemus on the basis of museum skull collections. Results Interspecific niche comparisons showed that A. alpicola is very specialized concerning habitat selection, meaning that its habitat differs unequivocally from the average conditions in Switzerland, while both A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus could be considered as 'generalists' in the study area. Main conclusions Although an adequate sampling design is the best way to collect ecological data for predictive modelling, this is a time and money consuming process and there are cases where time is simply not available, as for instance with endangered species conservation. On the other hand, museums, herbariums and other similar institutions are treasuring huge presence data sets. By applying the ENFA to such data it is possible to rapidly construct a habitat suitability model. The ENFA method not only provides two key measurements regarding the niche of a species (i.e. marginality and specialization), but also has ecological meaning, and allows the scientist to compare directly the niches of different species.

Influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of Central Asian green toads with three ploidy levels.

We studied the distribution of Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup), an anuran species group with three ploidy levels, inhabiting the Central Asian Amudarya River drainage. Various approaches (one-way, multivariate, components variance analyses and maximum entropy modelling) were used to estimate the effect of altitude, precipitation, temperature and land vegetation covers on the distribution of toads. It is usually assumed that polyploid species occur in regions with harsher climatic conditions (higher latitudes, elevations, etc.), but for the green toads complex, we revealed a more intricate situation. The diploid species (Bufo shaartusiensis and Bufo turanensis) inhabit the arid lowlands (from 44 to 789 m a.s.l.), while tetraploid Bufo pewzowi were recorded in mountainous regions (340-3492 m a.s.l.) with usually lower temperatures and higher precipitation rates than in the region inhabited by diploid species. The triploid species Bufo baturae was found in the Pamirs (Tajikistan) at the highest altitudes (2503-3859 m a.s.l.) under the harshest climatic conditions.

Neue Nachweise der Rhinopoma hardwickei (Chiroptera) aus Westafrika

From Mali, the first record of the bat Rhinopoma hardwickei is communicated. From Niger, new data of the same bat actualise the problem of subspecific rank of older material from this country

Le regard d'un psychiatre sur les écrits de la folie : la carrière de Hans Steck à l'Asile psychiatrique de Cery (1920-1960)

Quelles représentations de la schizophrénie les psychiatres vont-ils construire à travers l'étude des écrits asilaires des patients et des scientifiques dans la première moitié du XXème siècle? Le psychiatre helvétique Hans Steck (1891-1980), qui a travaillé à l'Asile psychiatrique de Cery de 1920 à 1960 et qui s'est fait connaître du public grâce à l'oeuvre d'Aloïse Corbaz, reconnue comme auteure d'art brut par Jean Dubuffet en 1945, constitue le fil rouge de la thèse. Dans le contexte des mouvements tels que Γ "art psychopathologique" et Γ "art brut", Steck étudie les théories de "la mentalité primitive et les peintures magiques des schizophrènes". En 1927, il se tourne vers les théories évolutionnistes de la régression et les premières études de Lévy-Bruhl pour avancer l'idée qu'il existe un "parallélisme schizo-primitif'. Puis il développe des explications de la pensée délirante, à partir des théories exposées lors du Premier Congrès International de Psychiatrie en 1950. Enfin, adoptant la perspective phénoménologique, il explique que "la fonction de l'art et la fonction du délire visent à reconstituer un monde viable pour le malade". En ce sens, l'expression artistique, bien que n'entrant pas dans le champ de la psychothérapie, fournit des indicateurs de l'état psychique du malade en même temps qu'elle contribue à son bien-être. Sont abordés les problèmes concernant la reconnaissance de Γ "auteur" interné, dont les oeuvres appartiennent soit aux archives médicales, soit au musée. La pérennité des critères qui définissent les oeuvres d'"art psychopathologique" ou d'"art brut" est également mise en question. Enfin, le rôle essentiel de l'écriture à l'hôpital, tant pour les patients que pour les soignants, fait l'objet de nombreux développements. - What representations of schizophrenia have psychiatrists been constructing when studying writings by patients and scientists in mental asylums in the first half of the 20th century? The Swiss psychiatrist Hans Steck (1891-1980) is the protagonist of this dissertation. From 1920 to 1960, he has been working at the "Asile psychiatrique de Cery" near Lausanne. Steck is known thanks to the paintings of Aloïse Corbaz, an artist recognized by Jean Dubuffet as belonging to the "art brut" movement in 1945. In the context of movements like "art psychopathologique" and "art brut," Steck studies theories of "primitive character and magic paintings of schizophrenics." In 1927, Steck engages with theories of regression and Lévy-Bruhl's early studies in order to push the idea of a "parallelism schizo-primitif." On the occasion of the First International Congress of psychiatry held in Paris in 1950, Steck develops explanations for the "pensée délirante." Finally, turning to a phenomenological point of view, he explains, "the function of art and the function of the delusion help the patient to reconstruct a viable environment for the sick person." In this way, artistic expression is not thought of as a psychotherapeutical means, but provides insight into the state of mind of a mentally sick person at the same time as contributing to his well-being. The dissertation discusses whether the "author's" work belongs in medical archives or museums. The continuity of "psychopathological art" and "art brut" criteria will be discussed. Finally, the essential role that writing played in the hospital for the patients as well as for the medical staff is presented.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Spatial variation in the temporal change of male and female melanic ornamentation in the barn owl.

Because the magnitude of selection can vary between sexes and in space and time, sexually antagonistic selection is difficult to demonstrate. In a Swiss population of barn owls (Tyto alba), a heritable eumelanic colour trait (size of black spots on ventral feathers) was positively selected with respect to yearling survival only in females. It remains unclear whether the absence of negative selection in males is typical in this species. To tackle this issue indirectly, we measured the size of black spots in 1733 skin specimens collected by museums from 1816 to 2001 in seven European countries and in the Middle-East. The temporal change in spot size was sex- and country-specific. In males, spots became smaller particularly in three countries (Middle-East, Italy and Switzerland). In females, the size of spots increased significantly in two countries (UK and Spain) and decreased in two others (Germany and Switzerland). Because migration and phenotypic plasticity cannot explain these results, selection is the most likely cause. The weaker temporal change in spot size in females than males may be because of the combined effect of strong genetic correlation between the sexes and stronger negative selection in males than positive selection in females. We thus suggest that in the barn owl, spot size (or genetically correlated traits) is sexually antagonistically selected and that its pattern of selection may account for the maintenance of its variation and sexual dimorphism.