Regional-scale integration of multi-scale hydrological and geophysical data using a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying ?true? hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of solute transport over long, regional-scale distances.

Segmentation and grid generation for numerical simulations of vad connections with patient-specific data

Objectives: We are interested in the numerical simulation of the anastomotic region comprised between outflow canula of LVAD and the aorta. Segmenta¬tion, geometry reconstruction and grid generation from patient-specific data remain an issue because of the variable quality of DICOM images, in particular CT-scan (e.g. metallic noise of the device, non-aortic contrast phase). We pro¬pose a general framework to overcome this problem and create suitable grids for numerical simulations.Methods: Preliminary treatment of images is performed by reducing the level window and enhancing the contrast of the greyscale image using contrast-limited adaptive histogram equalization. A gradient anisotropic diffusion filter is applied to reduce the noise. Then, watershed segmentation algorithms and mathematical morphology filters allow reconstructing the patient geometry. This is done using the InsightToolKit library (www.itk.org). Finally the Vascular Model¬ing ToolKit (www.vmtk.org) and gmsh (www.geuz.org/gmsh) are used to create the meshes for the fluid (blood) and structure (arterial wall, outflow canula) and to a priori identify the boundary layers. The method is tested on five different patients with left ventricular assistance and who underwent a CT-scan exam.Results: This method produced good results in four patients. The anastomosis area is recovered and the generated grids are suitable for numerical simulations. In one patient the method failed to produce a good segmentation because of the small dimension of the aortic arch with respect to the image resolution.Conclusions: The described framework allows the use of data that could not be otherwise segmented by standard automatic segmentation tools. In particular the computational grids that have been generated are suitable for simulations that take into account fluid-structure interactions. Finally the presented method features a good reproducibility and fast application.

SwissParam: a fast force field generation tool for small organic molecules.

The drug discovery process has been deeply transformed recently by the use of computational ligand-based or structure-based methods, helping the lead compounds identification and optimization, and finally the delivery of new drug candidates more quickly and at lower cost. Structure-based computational methods for drug discovery mainly involve ligand-protein docking and rapid binding free energy estimation, both of which require force field parameterization for many drug candidates. Here, we present a fast force field generation tool, called SwissParam, able to generate, for arbitrary small organic molecule, topologies, and parameters based on the Merck molecular force field, but in a functional form that is compatible with the CHARMM force field. Output files can be used with CHARMM or GROMACS. The topologies and parameters generated by SwissParam are used by the docking software EADock2 and EADock DSS to describe the small molecules to be docked, whereas the protein is described by the CHARMM force field, and allow them to reach success rates ranging from 56 to 78%. We have also developed a rapid binding free energy estimation approach, using SwissParam for ligands and CHARMM22/27 for proteins, which requires only a short minimization to reproduce the experimental binding free energy of 214 ligand-protein complexes involving 62 different proteins, with a standard error of 2.0 kcal mol(-1), and a correlation coefficient of 0.74. Together, these results demonstrate the relevance of using SwissParam topologies and parameters to describe small organic molecules in computer-aided drug design applications, together with a CHARMM22/27 description of the target protein. SwissParam is available free of charge for academic users at www.swissparam.ch.

Generation and interconnection capacity expansion in cross-border electricity markets : the need for policy coordination

Electricity is a strategic service in modern societies. Thus, it is extremely important for governments to be able to guarantee an affordable and reliable supply, which depends to a great extent on an adequate expansion of the generation and transmission capacities. Cross- border integration of electricity markets creates new challenges for the regulators, since the evolution of the market is now influenced by the characteristics and policies of neighbouring countries. There is still no agreement on why and how regions should integrate their electricity markets. The aim of this thesis is to improve the understanding of integrated electricity markets and how their behaviour depends on the prevailing characteristics of the national markets and the policies implemented in each country. We developed a simulation model to analyse under what circumstances integration is desirable. This model is used to study three cases of interconnection between two countries. Several policies regarding interconnection expansion and operation, combined with different generation capacity adequacy mechanisms, are evaluated. The thesis is composed of three papers. The first paper presents a detailed description of the model and an analysis of the case of Colombia and Ecuador. It shows that market coupling can bring important benefits, but the relative size of the countries can lead to import dependency issues in the smaller country. The second paper compares the case of Colombia and Ecuador with the case of Great Britain and France. These countries are significantly different in terms of electricity sources, hydro- storage capacity, complementarity and demand growth. We show that complementarity is essential in order to obtain benefits from integration, while higher demand growth and hydro- storage capacity can lead to counterintuitive outcomes, thus complicating policy design. In the third paper, an extended version of the model presented in the first paper is used to analyse the case of Finland and its interconnection with Russia. Different trading arrangements are considered. We conclude that unless interconnection capacity is expanded, the current trading arrangement, where a single trader owns the transmission rights and limits the flow during peak hours, is beneficial for Finland. In case of interconnection expansion, market coupling would be preferable. We also show that the costs of maintaining a strategic reserve in Finland are justified in order to limit import dependency, while still reaping the benefits of interconnection. In general, we conclude that electricity market integration can bring benefits if the right policies are implemented. However, a large interconnection capacity is only desirable if the countries exhibit significant complementarity and trust each other. The outcomes of policies aimed at guaranteeing security of supply at a national level can be quite counterintuitive due to the interactions between neighbouring countries and their effects on interconnection and generation investments. Thus, it is important for regulators to understand these interactions and coordinate their decisions in order to take advantage of the interconnection without putting security of supply at risk. But it must be taken into account that even when integration brings benefits to the region, some market participants lose and might try to hinder the integration process. -- Dans les sociétés modernes, l'électricité est un service stratégique. Il est donc extrêmement important pour les gouvernements de pouvoir garantir la sécurité d'approvisionnement à des prix abordables. Ceci dépend en grande mesure d'une expansion adéquate des capacités de génération et de transmission. L'intégration des marchés électriques pose des nouveaux défis pour les régulateurs, puisque l'évolution du marché est maintenant influencée par les caractéristiques et les politiques des pays voisins. Il n'est pas encore claire pourquoi ni comment les marches électriques devraient s'intégrer. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'améliorer la compréhension des marchés intégrés d'électricité et de leur comportement en fonction des caractéristiques et politiques de chaque pays. Un modèle de simulation est proposé pour étudier les conditions dans lesquelles l'intégration est désirable. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier trois cas d'interconnexion entre deux pays. Plusieurs politiques concernant l'expansion et l'opération de l'interconnexion, combinées avec différents mécanismes de rémunération de la capacité, sont évalués. Cette thèse est compose de trois articles. Le premier présente une description détaillée du modèle et une analyse du cas de la Colombie et de l'Equateur. Il montre que le couplage de marchés peut amener des bénéfices importants ; cependant, la différence de taille entre pays peut créer des soucis de dépendance aux importations pour le pays le plus petit. Le second papier compare le cas de la Colombie et l'Equateur avec le cas de la Grande Bretagne et de la France. Ces pays sont très différents en termes de ressources, taille des réservoirs d'accumulation pour l'hydro, complémentarité et croissance de la demande. Nos résultats montrent que la complémentarité joue un rôle essentiel dans l'obtention des bénéfices potentiels de l'intégration, alors qu'un taux élevé de croissance de la demande, ainsi qu'une grande capacité de stockage, mènent à des résultats contre-intuitifs, ce qui complique les décisions des régulateurs. Dans le troisième article, une extension du modèle présenté dans le premier article est utilisée pour analyser le cas de la Finlande et de la Russie. Différentes règles pour les échanges internationaux d'électricité sont considérées. Nos résultats indiquent qu'à un faible niveau d'interconnexion, la situation actuelle, où un marchand unique possède les droits de transmission et limite le flux pendant les heures de pointe, est bénéfique pour la Finlande. Cependant, en cas d'expansion de la capacité d'interconnexion, «market coupling» est préférable. préférable. Dans tous les cas, la Finlande a intérêt à garder une réserve stratégique, car même si cette politique entraine des coûts, elle lui permet de profiter des avantages de l'intégration tout en limitant ca dépendance envers les importations. En général, nous concluons que si les politiques adéquates sont implémentées, l'intégration des marchés électriques peut amener des bénéfices. Cependant, une grande capacité d'interconnexion n'est désirable que si les pays ont une complémentarité importante et il existe une confiance mutuelle. Les résultats des politiques qui cherchent à préserver la sécurité d'approvisionnement au niveau national peuvent être très contre-intuitifs, étant données les interactions entre les pays voisins et leurs effets sur les investissements en génération et en interconnexion. Il est donc très important pour les régulateurs de comprendre ces interactions et de coordonner décisions à fin de pouvoir profiter de l'interconnexion sans mettre en danger la sécurité d'approvisionnement. Mais il faut être conscients que même quand l'intégration amène de bénéfices pour la région, certains participants au marché sont perdants et pourraient essayer de bloquer le processus d'intégration.

Constitutive activation of Wnt signaling favors generation of memory CD8 T cells.

T cell factor-1 (TCF-1) and lymphoid enhancer-binding factor 1, the effector transcription factors of the canonical Wnt pathway, are known to be critical for normal thymocyte development. However, it is largely unknown if it has a role in regulating mature T cell activation and T cell-mediated immune responses. In this study, we demonstrate that, like IL-7Ralpha and CD62L, TCF-1 and lymphoid enhancer-binding factor 1 exhibit dynamic expression changes during T cell responses, being highly expressed in naive T cells, downregulated in effector T cells, and upregulated again in memory T cells. Enforced expression of a p45 TCF-1 isoform limited the expansion of Ag-specific CD8 T cells in response to Listeria monocytogenes infection. However, when the p45 transgene was coupled with ectopic expression of stabilized beta-catenin, more Ag-specific memory CD8 T cells were generated, with enhanced ability to produce IL-2. Moreover, these memory CD8 T cells expanded to a larger number of secondary effectors and cleared bacteria faster when the immunized mice were rechallenged with virulent L. monocytogenes. Furthermore, in response to vaccinia virus or lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus infection, more Ag-specific memory CD8 T cells were generated in the presence of p45 and stabilized beta-catenin transgenes. Although activated Wnt signaling also resulted in larger numbers of Ag-specific memory CD4 T cells, their functional attributes and expansion after the secondary infection were not improved. Thus, constitutive activation of the canonical Wnt pathway favors memory CD8 T cell formation during initial immunization, resulting in enhanced immunity upon second encounter with the same pathogen.

Ab initio modeling and molecular dynamics simulation of the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor activation.

This work describes the ab initio procedure employed to build an activation model for the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor (alpha 1b-AR). The first version of the model was progressively modified and complicated by means of a many-step iterative procedure characterized by the employment of experimental validations of the model in each upgrading step. A combined simulated (molecular dynamics) and experimental mutagenesis approach was used to determine the structural and dynamic features characterizing the inactive and active states of alpha 1b-AR. The latest version of the model has been successfully challenged with respect to its ability to interpret and predict the functional properties of a large number of mutants. The iterative approach employed to describe alpha 1b-AR activation in terms of molecular structure and dynamics allows further complications of the model to allow prediction and interpretation of an ever-increasing number of experimental data.

B and T lymphocyte attenuator regulates CD8+ T cell-intrinsic homeostasis and memory cell generation.

B and T lymphocyte attenuator (BTLA) is a negative regulator of T cell activation, but its function in vivo is not well characterized. Here we show that mice deficient in full-length BTLA or its ligand, herpesvirus entry mediator, had increased number of memory CD8(+) T cells. The memory CD8(+) T cell phenotype resulted from a T cell-intrinsic perturbation of the CD8(+) T cell pool. Naive BTLA-deficient CD8(+) T cells were more efficient than wild-type cells at generating memory in a competitive antigen-specific system. This effect was independent of the initial expansion of the responding antigen-specific T cell population. In addition, BTLA negatively regulated antigen-independent homeostatic expansion of CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells. These results emphasize two central functions of BTLA in limiting T cell activity in vivo.

Hydrogeophysical data integration at larger scales: Application of Bayesian sequential simulation for the characterization of heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within an aquifer is critical for reliable predictions of solute transport and the development of effective groundwater management and/or remediation strategies. While core analyses and hydraulic logging can provide highly detailed information, such information is inherently localized around boreholes that tend to be sparsely distributed throughout the aquifer volume. Conversely, larger-scale hydraulic experiments like pumping and tracer tests provide relatively low-resolution estimates of K in the investigated subsurface region. As a result, traditional hydrogeological measurement techniques contain a gap in terms of spatial resolution and coverage, and they are often alone inadequate for characterizing heterogeneous aquifers. Geophysical methods have the potential to bridge this gap. The recent increased interest in the application of geophysical methods to hydrogeological problems is clearly evidenced by the formation and rapid growth of the domain of hydrogeophysics over the past decade (e.g., Rubin and Hubbard, 2005).

Using active learning for monitoring networks design: The example of wind power plants sites evaluation

Locating new wind farms is of crucial importance for energy policies of the next decade. To select the new location, an accurate picture of the wind fields is necessary. However, characterizing wind fields is a difficult task, since the phenomenon is highly nonlinear and related to complex topographical features. In this paper, we propose both a nonparametric model to estimate wind speed at different time instants and a procedure to discover underrepresented topographic conditions, where new measuring stations could be added. Compared to space filling techniques, this last approach privileges optimization of the output space, thus locating new potential measuring sites through the uncertainty of the model itself.

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]

Autofluorescence Findings Of A Novel Maculopathy In Patient With Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type 1 And Of A Cone - Rod Type Retinal Dysfunction In Three Generation Family With Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type 7

Purpose: To report a novel maculopathy in a patient with SCA1. To describe autofluorescence findings in family with SCA7 and associated cone-rod retinal dysfunction.Methods: 4 affected patients from two families were assessed to investigate a progressive loss of visual acuity (VA). Examinations included fundus photography, autofluorescence (AF) fundus fluorescein angiogragraphy (FFA) and optical coherence tomography. Electroretinogram (full-field) was performed in 2 affected patients. All patients had color vision testing using Ishihara pseudoisochromatic plates. Molecular analysis was performed in family 2.Results: The patient with known diagnosis of SCA1 had a visual acuity of 20/200 bilaterally and dyschromatopsia. He had saccadic pursuit. Fundus examination showed mild retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) changes at the macula. OCT showed bilateral macular serous detachment, which was not obvious at the FFA and explained his VA. AF imaging showed a central hyperfluorescence. The 45 year old proband from family 2 had a visual acuity of 200/20 and dyschromatopsia. ERG testing showed cone type dysfunction of photoreceptors. Her daughter affected at a younger age had the same ERGs findings. Fundus examination showed mild RPE changes in proband, normal findings in her daughter. AF imaging of both patients showed a ring of high density AF around the fovea. The ring was also obvious on near infrared AF. Later onset of gait imbalance led to the diagnosis of SCA7Conclusions: Within the group of spinocerebellar ataxias, only the type 7 is associated with retinal dysfunction. We present the first report of maculopathy associated with SCA1 causing severe vision loss. The ring of high density AF in SCA7 confirmed an early retinal photoreceptor dysfunction in patient with normal fundus.