Phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities of butterfly communities correlate with climate in the western Swiss Alps

The observation of non-random phylogenetic distribution of traits in communities provides evidence for niche-based community assembly. Environment may influence the phylogenetic structure of communities because traits determining how species respond to prevailing conditions can be phylogenetically conserved. In this study, we investigate the variation of butterfly species richness and of phylogenetic - and -diversities along temperature and plant species richness gradients. Our study indicates that butterfly richness is independently positively correlated to temperature and plant species richness in the study area. However, the variation of phylogenetic - and -diversities is only correlated to temperature. The significant phylogenetic clustering at high elevation suggests that cold temperature filters butterfly lineages, leading to communities mostly composed of closely related species adapted to those climatic conditions. These results suggest that in colder and more severe conditions at high elevations deterministic processes and not purely stochastic events drive the assemblage of butterfly communities.

Predicted effect of climate change on the invasibility and distribution of the Western corn root-worm

1 Insect pests, biological invasions and climate change are considered to representmajor threats to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, agriculture and forestry.Deriving hypothesis of contemporary and/or future potential distributions of insectpests and invasive species is becoming an important tool for predicting the spatialstructure of potential threats.2 The western corn rootworm (WCR) Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte is apest of maize in North America that has invaded Europe in recent years, resultingin economic costs in terms of maize yields in both continents. The present studyaimed to estimate the dynamics of potential areas of invasion by the WCR under aclimate change scenario in the Northern Hemisphere. The areas at risk under thisscenario were assessed by comparing, using complementary approaches, the spatialprojections of current and future areas of climatic favourability of the WCR. Spatialhypothesis were generated with respect to the presence records in the native rangeof the WCR and physiological thresholds from previous empirical studies.3 We used a previously developed protocol specifically designed to estimatethe climatic favourability of the WCR. We selected the most biologicallyrelevant climatic predictors and then used multidimensional envelope (MDE) andMahalanobis distances (MD) approaches to derive potential distributions for currentand future climatic conditions.4 The results obtained showed a northward advancement of the upper physiologicallimit as a result of climate change, which might increase the strength of outbreaksat higher latitudes. In addition, both MDE and MD outputs predict the stability ofclimatic favourability for the WCR in the core of the already invaded area in Europe,which suggests that this zone would continue to experience damage from this pestin Europe.

Plant functional and phylogenetic turnover correlate with climate and land use in the Western Swiss Alps

Understanding the relative importance of historical and environmental processes in the structure and composition of communities is one of the longest quests in ecological research. Increasingly, researchers are relying on the functional and phylogenetic β-diversity of natural communities to provide concise explanations on the mechanistic basis of community assembly and the drivers of trait variation among species. The present study investigated how plant functional and phylogenetic β-diversity change along key environmental and spatial gradients in the Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using the quadratic diversity measure based on six functional traits: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), plant height (H), leaf carbon content (C), leaf nitrogen content (N), and leaf carbon to nitrogen content (C/N) alongside a species-resolved phylogenetic tree, we relate variations in climate, spatial geographic, land use and soil gradients to plant functional and phylogenetic turnover in mountain communities of the Western Swiss Alps. Important findings Our study highlights two main points. First, climate and land use factors play an important role in mountain plant community turnover. Second, the overlap between plant functional and phylogenetic turnover along these gradients correlates with the low phylogenetic signal in traits, suggesting that in mountain landscapes, trait lability is likely an important factor in driving plant community assembly. Overall, we demonstrate the importance of climate and land use factors in plant functional and phylogenetic community turnover, and provide valuable complementary insights into understanding patterns of β-diversity along several ecological gradients.

Climate and vegetation history of western Portugal inferred from Albian near-shore deposits (Gale Formation, Lusitanian Basin)

The late Early Cretaceous greenhouse climate has been studied intensively based on proxy data derived essentially from open marine archives. In contrast, information on continental climatic conditions and on the accompanying response of vegetation is relatively scarce, most notably owing to the stratigraphic uncertainties associated with many Lower Cretaceous terrestrial deposits. Here, we present a palynological record from Albian near-shore deposits of the Lusitanian Basin of W Portugal, which have been independently dated using Sr-isotope signals derived from low-Mg oyster shell calcite. Sr-87/Sr-86 values fluctuate between 0.707373 +/- 0.00002 and 0.707456 +/- 0.00003; absolute values and the overall stratigraphic trend match well with the global open marine seawater signature during Albian times. Based on the new Sr-isotope data, existing biostratigraphic assignments of the succession are corroborated and partly revised. Spore-pollen data provide information on the vegetation community structure and are flanked by sedimentological and clay mineralogical data used to infer the overall climatic conditions prevailing on the adjacent continent. Variations in the distribution of climate-sensitive pollen and spores indicate distinct changes in moisture availability across the studied succession with a pronounced increase in hygrophilous spores in late Early Albian times. Comparison with time-equivalent palynofloras from the Algarve Basin of southern Portugal shows pronounced differences in the xerophyte/hygrophyte ratio, interpreted to reflect the effect of a broad arid climate belt covering southern and southeastern Iberia during Early Albian times.

Constraints on Miocene oceanography and climate in the Western and Central Paratethys: O-, Sr-, and Nd-isotope compositions of marine fish and mammal remains

The Paratethys evolved as a marginal sea during the Alpine-Himalayan orogeny in the Oligo-Miocene. Sediments from the northern Alpine Molasse Basin, the Vienna, and the Pannonian Basins located in the western and central part of the Paratethys thus provide unique information on regional changes in climate and oceanography during a period of active Alpine uplift Oxygen isotope compositions of well-preserved phosphatic fossils recovered from the sediments support deposition under sub-tropical to warm-temperate climate with water temperatures of 14 to 28 degrees C for the Miocene. delta(18)O values of fossil shark teeth are similar to those reported for other Miocene marine sections and, using the best available estimates of their biostratigraphic age, show a variation until the end of the Badenian similar to that reported for composite global record. The (87)Sr/(86)Sr isotope ratios of the fossils follow the global Miocene seawater trend, albeit with a much larger scatter. The deviations of (87)Sr/(86)Sr in the samples from the well-constrained seawater curve are interpreted as due to local input of terrestrially-derived Sr. Contribution of local sources is also reflected in the epsilon(Nd) values, consistent with input from ancient crystalline rocks (e.g., Bohemian Massif and/or Mesozoic sediments with epsilon(Nd) < -9. On the other hand, there is evidence for input from areas with Neogene volcanism as suggested by samples with elevated epsilon(Nd) values >-7. Excluding samples showing local influence on the water column, an average epsilon(Nd) value of -7.9 +/- 0.5 may be inferred for the Miocene Paratethys. This value is indistinguishable from the epsilon(Nd) value of the contemporaneous Indian Ocean, supporting a dominant role of this ocean in the Western and Central Paratethys. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogeographical footprints of the Strait of Gibraltar and Quaternary climatic fluctuations in the western Mediterranean: a case study with the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula (Mammalia: Soricidae).

We used mitochondrial cyt b sequences to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Crocidura russula (sensu lato) populations across the Strait of Gibraltar, western Europe, Maghreb, and the Mediterranean and Atlantic islands. This revealed very low genetic divergence between European and Moroccan populations. The application of a molecular clock previously calibrated for shrews suggested that the separation of European from Moroccan lineages occurred less than 60 000 bp, which is at least 5 million years (Myr) after the reopening of the Strait of Gibraltar. This means that an overwater dispersal event was responsible for the observed phylogeographical structure. In contrast, genetic analyses revealed that Moroccan populations were highly distinct from Tunisian ones. According to the molecular clock, these populations separated about 2.2 million years ago (Ma), a time marked by sharp alternations of dry and humid climates in the Maghreb. The populations of the Mediterranean islands Ibiza, Pantelleria, and Sardinia were founded from Tunisian populations by overwater dispersal. In conclusion, overwater dispersal across the Strait of Gibraltar, probably assisted by humans, is possible for small terrestrial vertebrates. Moreover, as in Europe, Quaternary climatic fluctuations had a major effect on the phylogeographical structure of the Maghreb biota.

Loss of interactions with ants under cold climate in a regional myrmecophilous butterfly fauna

Aim Specialized mutualistic clades may revert and thus increase their autonomy and generalist characteristics. However, our understanding of the drivers that trigger reductions in mutualistic traits and of the consequences for the tolerance of these species to various environmental conditions remains limited. This study investigates the relationship between the environmental niche and the degree of myrmecophily (i.e. the ability to interact with ants) among members of the Lycaenidae. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We measured the tolerance of Lycaenidae species to low temperatures by comparing observations from a random stratified field sampling with climatic maps. We then compared the species-specific degree of myrmecophily with the species range limits at colder temperatures while controlling for phylogenetic dependence. We further evaluated whether the community-averaged degree of myrmecophily increases with temperature, as would be expected in the case of environmental filters acting on myrmecophilous species. Results Twenty-nine Lycaenidae species were found during sampling. Ancestral state reconstruction indicated that the 24 species of Polyommatinae displayed both strong myrmecophily and secondary loss of mutualism; these species were used in the subsequent statistical analyses. Species with a higher degree of ant interaction were, on average, more likely to inhabit warmer sites. Species inhabiting the coldest environments displayed little or no interaction with ants. Main conclusions Colder climates at high elevations filter out species with a high degree of myrmecophily and may have been the direct evolutionary force that promoted the loss of mutualism. A larger taxon sampling across the Holarctic may help to distinguish between the ecological and evolutionary effects of climate.

Multiscale phylogeography: glacial history and autopolyploidy of Biscutella laevigata L. (Brassicaceae) in the Western Alps

Résumé Les changements climatiques du Quaternaire ont eu une influence majeure sur la distribution et l'évolution des biota septentrionaux. Les Alpes offrent un cadre spatio-temporel bien étudié pour comprendre la réactivité de la flore et le potentiel d'adaptation d'une espèce végétale face aux changements climatiques. Certaines hypothèses postulent une diversification des espèces en raison de la disparition complète de la flore des Alpes et d'un isolement important des espèces dans des refuges méridionaux durant les dernières glaciations (Tabula Rasa). Une autre hypothèse stipule le maintien de poches de résistance pour la végétation au coeur des Alpes (Nunataks). Comme de nombreuses espèces végétales présentant un grand succès écologique semblent avoir réagi aux glaciations par la multiplication de leur génome (autopolyploïdie), leur étude en milieu naturel devrait permettre de comprendre les avantages inhérents à la polyploïdie. Biscutella laevigata est un modèle emblématique de biogéographie historique, diverses études ayant montré que des populations diploïdes sont actuellement isolées dans les zones restées déglacées durant le dernier maximum glaciaire, alors que des tétraploïdes ont recolonisé l'ensemble des zones alpines mises à nu par le retrait des glaciers. Si le contexte périglaciaire semble avoir favorisé ce jeune complexe autopolyploïde, les circonstances et les avantages de cette mutation génomique ne sont pas encore clairs. Y a-t-il eu de multiples événements de polyploïdisation ? Dans quelle mesure affecte(nt)il(s) la diversité génétique et le potentiel évolutif des polyploïdes ? Les polyploïdes ont-ils une grande flexibilité génomique, favorisant une radiation adaptative, ou doivent-ils leur succès à une grande plasticité écologique ? Cette étude aborde ces questions à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. L'échelle régionale des Alpes occidentales permet d'aborder les facteurs distaux (aspects historiques), alors que l'échelle locale cherche à appréhender les facteurs proximaux (mécanismes évolutifs). Dans les Alpes occidentales, des populations ont été densément échantillonnées et étudiées grâce à (1) leur cytotype, (2) leur appartenance taxonomique, (3) leur habitat et (4) des marqueurs moléculaires de l'ADN chloroplastique, en vue d'établir leurs affinités évolutives. Á l'échelle locale, deux systèmes de population ont été étudiés : l'un où les populations persistent en périphérie de l'aire de distribution et l'autre au niveau du front actif de colonisation, en marge altitudinale. Les résultats à l'échelle des Alpes occidentales révèlent les sites d'intérêt (refuges glaciaires, principales barrières et voies de recolonisation) pour une espèce représentative des pelouses alpines, ainsi que pour la biodiversité régionale. Les Préalpes ont joué un rôle important dans le maintien de populations à proximité immédiate des Alpes centrales et dans l'évolution du taxon, voire de la végétation. Il est aussi démontré que l'époque glaciaire a favorisé l'autopolyploïdie polytopique et la recolonisation des Alpes occidentales par des lignées distinctes qui s'hybrident au centre des Alpes, influençant fortement leur diversité génétique et leur potentiel évolutif. L'analyse de populations locales en situations contrastées à l'aide de marqueurs AFLP montre qu'au sein d'une lignée présentant une grande expansion, la diversité génétique est façonnée par des forces évolutives différentes selon le contexte écologique et historique. Les populations persistant présentent une dispersion des gènes restreinte, engendrant une diversité génétique assez faible, mais semblent adaptées aux conditions locales de l'environnement. À l'inverse, les populations colonisant la marge altitudinale sont influencées par les effets de fondation conjugués à une importante dispersion des gènes et, si ces processus impliquent une grande diversité génétique, ils engendrent une répartition aléatoire des génotypes dans l'environnement. Les autopolyploïdes apparaissent ainsi comme capables de persister face aux changements climatiques grâce à certaines facultés d'adaptation locale et de grandes capacités à maintenir une importante diversité génétique lors de la recolonisation post-glaciaire. Summary The extreme climate changes of the Quaternary have had a major influence on species distribution and evolution. The European Alps offer a great framework to investigate flora reactivity and the adaptive potential of species under changing climate. Some hypotheses postulate diversification due to vegetation removal and important isolation in southern refugia (Tabula Rasa), while others explain phylogeographic patterns by the survival of species in favourable Nunataks within the Alps. Since numerous species have successfully reacted to past climate changes by genome multiplication (autopolyploidy), studies of such taxa in natural conditions is likely to explain the ecological success and the advantages of autopolyploidy. Early cytogeographical surveys of Biscutella laevigata have shed light on the links between autopolyploidy and glaciations by indicating that diploids are now spatially isolated in never-glaciated areas, while autotetraploids have recolonised the zones covered by glaciers- during the last glacial maximum. A periglacial context apparently favoured this young autopolyploid complex but the circumstances and the advantages of this genomic mutation remain unclear. What is the glacial history of the B. laevigata autopolyploid complex? Are there multiple events of polyploidisation? To what extent do they affect the genetic diversity and the evolutionary potential of polyploids? Is recolonisation associated with adaptive processes? How does long-term persistence affect genetic diversity? The present study addresses these questions at different spatiotemporal scales. A regional survey at the Western Alps-scale tackles distal factors (evolutionary history), while local-scale studies explore proximal factors (evolutionary mechanisms). In the Western Alps, populations have been densely sampled and studied from the (1) cytotypic, (2) morphotaxonomic, (3) habitat point of views, as well as (4) plastid DNA molecular markers, in order to infer their relationships and establish the maternal lineages phylogeography. At the local scale, populations persisting at the rear edge and populations recolonising the attitudinal margin at the leading edge have been studied by AFLPs to show how genetic diversity is shaped by different evolutionary forces across the species range. The results at the regional scale document the glacial history of a widespread species, representative of alpine meadows, in a regional area of main interest (glacial refugia, main barriers and recolonisation routes) and points out to sites of interest for regional biodiversity. The external Alps have played a major role in the maintenance of populations near the central Alps during the Last Glacial Maximum and influenced the evolution of the species, and of vegetation. Polytopic autopolyploidy in different biogeographic districts is also demonstrated. The species has had an important and rapid radiation because recolonisation took place from different refugia. The subsequent recolonisation of the Western Alps was achieved by independent lineages that are presently admixing in the central Alps. The role of the Pennic summit line is underlined as a great barrier that was permeable only through certain favourable high-altitude passes. The central Alps are thus viewed as an important crossroad where genomes with different evolutionary histories are meeting and admixing. The AFLP analysis and comparison of local populations growing in contrasted ecological and historical situations indicate that populations persisting in the external Alps present restricted gene dispersal and low genetic diversity but seem in equilibrium with their environment. On the contrary, populations colonising the attitudinal margin are mainly influenced by founder effects together with great gene dispersal and genotypes have a nearly random distribution, suggesting that recolonisation is not associated with adaptive processes. Autopolyploids that locally persist against climate changes thus seem to present adaptive ability, while those that actively recolonise the Alps are successful because of their great capacity to maintain a high genetic diversity against founder effects during recolonisation.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Cenomanian (early Late Cretaceous) ammonoid faunas of Western Europe - Part II: Diversity patterns and the end-Cenomanian anoxic event

Diversity patterns of ammonoids are analyzed and compared with the timing of anoxic deposits around the Cenomanian/Turonian (C/T) boundary in the Vocontian, Anglo-Paris, and Monster basins of Western Europe. Differing from most previous studies, which concentrate on a narrow time span bracketing the C/T boundary, the present analysis covers the latest Albian to Early Turonian interval for which a high resolution, ammonoid-based biochronology, including 34 Unitary Associations zones, is now available. During the latest Albian-Middle Cenomanian interval, species richness of ammonoids reveals a dynamical equilibrium oscillating around an average of 20 species, whereas the Late Cenomanian-Early Turonian interval displays an equilibrium centered on an average value of 6 species. The abrupt transition between these two successive equilibria lasted no longer than two Unitary Associations. The onset of the decline of species richness thus largely predates the spread of oxygen-poor water masses onto the shelves, while minimal values of species richness coincide with the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary only. The decline of species richness during the entire Late Cenomanian seems to result from lower origination percentages rather than from higher extinction percentages. This result is also supported by the absence of statistically significant changes in the extinction probabilities of the poly-cohorts. Separate analyses of species richness for acanthoceratids and heteromorphs, the two essential components of the Cenomanian ammonoid community, reveal that heteromorphs declined sooner than acanthoceratids. Moreover, acanthoceratids showed a later decline at the genus level than at the species level. Such a decoupling is accompanied by a significant increase in morphological disparity of acanthoceratids, which is expressed by the appearance of new genera. Last, during the Late Cenomanian, paedomorphic processes, juvenile innovations and reductions of adult size dominated the evolutionary radiation of acanthoceratids. Hence, the decrease in ammonoid species richness and their major evolutionary changes significantly predates the spread of anoxic deposits. Other environmental constraints such as global flooding of platforms, warmer and more equable climate, as well as productivity changes better correlate with the timing of diversity changes and evolutionary patterns of ammonoids and therefore, provide more likely causative mechanisms than anoxia alone.

Middle and late Cenomanian oceanic anoxic events in shallow and deeper shelf environments of western Morocco

The response of shallow-water sequences to oceanic anoxic event 2 and mid-Cenomanian events 1a and 1b was investigated along the west African margin of Morocco north of Agadir (Azazoul) and correlated with the deep-water sequence of the Tarfaya Basin (Mohammed Beach) based on biostratigraphy, mineralogy, phosphorus and stable isotopes. In the deeper Mohammed Beach section results show double peaks in delta 13C(org) for mid-Cenomanian events 1a and 1b (Rotalipora reicheli biozone, lower CC10a biozone), the characteristic oceanic anoxic event 2 delta 13C excursion (Rotalipora cushmani extinction, top of CC10a biozone) and laminated (anoxic) black shale. In the shallow environment north of Agadir, a fluctuating sea-level associated with dysoxic, brackish and mesotrophic conditions prevailed during the middle to late Cenomanian, as indicated by oyster biostromes, nannofossils, planktonic and benthonic foraminiferal assemblages. Anoxic conditions characteristic of oceanic anoxic event 2 (for example, laminated black shales) did not reach into shallow-water environments until the maximum transgression of the early Turonian. Climate conditions decoupled along the western margin of Morocco between mid-Cenomanian event 1b and the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary, as also observed in eastern Tethys. North of Agadir alternating humid and dry seasonal conditions prevailed, whereas in the Tarfaya Basin the climate was dry and seasonal. This climatic decoupling can be attributed to variations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and in the intensity of the north-east trade winds in tropical areas.

Organisational reforms in active welfare states: A comparative analysis of the turn to 'single gateways' in Western Europe

Based on the case of reforms aimed at integrating the provision of income protection and employment services for jobless people in Europe, this thesis seeks to understand the reasons which may prompt governments to engage in large-scale organisational reforms. Over the last 20 years, several European countries have indeed radically redesigned the organisational structure of their welfare state by merging or bundling existing front-line offices in charge of benefit payment and employment services together into 'one-stop' agencies. Whereas in academic and political debates, these reforms are generally presented as a necessary and rational response to the problems and inconsistencies induced by fragmentation in a context of the reorientation of welfare states towards labour market activation, this thesis shows that the agenda setting of these reforms is in fact the result of multidimensional political dynamics. More specifically, the main argument of this thesis is that these reforms are best understood not so such from the problems induced by organisational compartmentalism, whose political recognition is often controversial, but from the various goals that governments may simultaneously achieve by means of their adoption. This argument is tested by comparing agenda-setting processes of large-scale reforms of coordination in the United Kingdom (Jobcentre Plus), Germany (Hartz IV reform) and Denmark (2005 Jobcentre reform), and contrasting them with the Swiss case where the government has so far rejected any coordination initiative involving organisational redesign. This comparison brings to light the importance, for the rise of organisational reforms, of the possibility to couple them with the following three goals: first, goals related to the strengthening of activation policies; second, institutional goals seeking to redefine the balance of responsibilities between the central state and non-state actors, and finally electoral goals for governments eager to maintain political credibility. The decisive role of electoral goals in the three countries suggests that these reforms are less bound by partisan politics than by the particular pressures facing governments arrived in office after long periods in opposition.

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

Introduction of snow and geomorphic disturbance variables into predictive models of alpine plant distribution in the Western Swiss Alps

Indirect topographic variables have been used successfully as surrogates for disturbance processes in plant species distribution models (SDM) in mountain environments. However, no SDM studies have directly tested the performance of disturbance variables. In this study, we developed two disturbance variables: a geomorphic index (GEO) and an index of snow redistribution by wind (SNOW). These were developed in order to assess how they improved both the fit and predictive power of presenceabsence SDM based on commonly used topoclimatic (TC) variables for 91 plants in the Western Swiss Alps. The individual contribution of the disturbance variables was compared to TC variables. Maps of models were prepared to spatially test the effect of disturbance variables. On average, disturbance variables significantly improved the fit but not the predictive power of the TC models and their individual contribution was weak (5.6% for GEO and 3.3% for SNOW). However their maximum individual contribution was important (24.7% and 20.7%). Finally, maps including disturbance variables (i) were significantly divergent from TC models in terms of predicted suitable surfaces and connectivity between potential habitats, and (ii) were interpreted as more ecologically relevant. Disturbance variables did not improve the transferability of models at the local scale in a complex mountain system, and the performance and contribution of these variables were highly species-specific. However, improved spatial projections and change in connectivity are important issues when preparing projections under climate change because the future range size of the species will determine the sensitivity to changing conditions.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.