On the number of independent cultural traits carried by individuals and populations.

In species subject to individual and social learning, each individual is likely to express a certain number of different cultural traits acquired during its lifetime. If the process of trait innovation and transmission reaches a steady state in the population, the number of different cultural traits carried by an individual converges to some stationary distribution. We call this the trait-number distribution. In this paper, we derive the trait-number distributions for both individuals and populations when cultural traits are independent of each other. Our results suggest that as the number of cultural traits becomes large, the trait-number distributions approach Poisson distributions so that their means characterize cultural diversity in the population. We then analyse how the mean trait number varies at both the individual and population levels as a function of various demographic features, such as population size and subdivision, and social learning rules, such as conformism and anti-conformism. Diversity at the individual and population levels, as well as at the level of cultural homogeneity within groups, depends critically on the details of population demography and the individual and social learning rules.

Adaptively weighted maximum likelihood estimation of discrete distributions

SummaryDiscrete data arise in various research fields, typically when the observations are count data.I propose a robust and efficient parametric procedure for estimation of discrete distributions. The estimation is done in two phases. First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed and used to indentify outliers. Then the outliers are either removed from the sample or given low weights, and a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WML) is computed.The weights are determined via an adaptive process such that if the data follow the model, then asymptotically no observation is downweighted.I prove that the final estimator inherits the breakdown point of the initial one, and that its influence function at the model is the same as the influence function of the maximum likelihood estimator, which strongly suggests that it is asymptotically fully efficient.The initial estimator is a minimum disparity estimator (MDE). MDEs can be shown to have full asymptotic efficiency, and some MDEs have very high breakdown points and very low bias under contamination. Several initial estimators are considered, and the performances of the WMLs based on each of them are studied.It results that in a great variety of situations the WML substantially improves the initial estimator, both in terms of finite sample mean square error and in terms of bias under contamination. Besides, the performances of the WML are rather stable under a change of the MDE even if the MDEs have very different behaviors.Two examples of application of the WML to real data are considered. In both of them, the necessity for a robust estimator is clear: the maximum likelihood estimator is badly corrupted by the presence of a few outliers.This procedure is particularly natural in the discrete distribution setting, but could be extended to the continuous case, for which a possible procedure is sketched.RésuméLes données discrètes sont présentes dans différents domaines de recherche, en particulier lorsque les observations sont des comptages.Je propose une méthode paramétrique robuste et efficace pour l'estimation de distributions discrètes. L'estimation est faite en deux phases. Tout d'abord, un estimateur très robuste des paramètres du modèle est calculé, et utilisé pour la détection des données aberrantes (outliers). Cet estimateur n'est pas nécessairement efficace. Ensuite, soit les outliers sont retirés de l'échantillon, soit des faibles poids leur sont attribués, et un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance pondéré (WML) est calculé.Les poids sont déterminés via un processus adaptif, tel qu'asymptotiquement, si les données suivent le modèle, aucune observation n'est dépondérée.Je prouve que le point de rupture de l'estimateur final est au moins aussi élevé que celui de l'estimateur initial, et que sa fonction d'influence au modèle est la même que celle du maximum de vraisemblance, ce qui suggère que cet estimateur est pleinement efficace asymptotiquement.L'estimateur initial est un estimateur de disparité minimale (MDE). Les MDE sont asymptotiquement pleinement efficaces, et certains d'entre eux ont un point de rupture très élevé et un très faible biais sous contamination. J'étudie les performances du WML basé sur différents MDEs.Le résultat est que dans une grande variété de situations le WML améliore largement les performances de l'estimateur initial, autant en terme du carré moyen de l'erreur que du biais sous contamination. De plus, les performances du WML restent assez stables lorsqu'on change l'estimateur initial, même si les différents MDEs ont des comportements très différents.Je considère deux exemples d'application du WML à des données réelles, où la nécessité d'un estimateur robuste est manifeste : l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance est fortement corrompu par la présence de quelques outliers.La méthode proposée est particulièrement naturelle dans le cadre des distributions discrètes, mais pourrait être étendue au cas continu.

Quantitative analysis of crystal/grain sizes and their distributions in 2D and 3D

We review methods to estimate the average crystal (grain) size and the crystal (grain) size distribution in solid rocks. Average grain sizes often provide the base for stress estimates or rheological calculations requiring the quantification of grain sizes in a rock's microstructure. The primary data for grain size data are either 1D (i.e. line intercept methods), 2D (area analysis) or 3D (e.g., computed tomography, serial sectioning). These data have been used for different data treatments over the years, whereas several studies assume a certain probability function (e.g., logarithm, square root) to calculate statistical parameters as the mean, median, mode or the skewness of a crystal size distribution. The finally calculated average grain sizes have to be compatible between the different grain size estimation approaches in order to be properly applied, for example, in paleo-piezometers or grain size sensitive flow laws. Such compatibility is tested for different data treatments using one- and two-dimensional measurements. We propose an empirical conversion matrix for different datasets. These conversion factors provide the option to make different datasets compatible with each other, although the primary calculations were obtained in different ways. In order to present an average grain size, we propose to use the area-weighted and volume-weighted mean in the case of unimodal grain size distributions, respectively, for 2D and 3D measurements. The shape of the crystal size distribution is important for studies of nucleation and growth of minerals. The shape of the crystal size distribution of garnet populations is compared between different 2D and 3D measurements, which are serial sectioning and computed tomography. The comparison of different direct measured 3D data; stereological data and direct presented 20 data show the problems of the quality of the smallest grain sizes and the overestimation of small grain sizes in stereological tools, depending on the type of CSD. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Optimal dividend strategies for a compound Poisson risk process under transaction costs and power utility

We characterize the value function of maximizing the total discounted utility of dividend payments for a compound Poisson insurance risk model when strictly positive transaction costs are included, leading to an impulse control problem. We illustrate that well known simple strategies can be optimal in the case of exponential claim amounts. Finally we develop a numerical procedure to deal with general claim amount distributions.

Validation of tissue modelization and classification techniques in T1-weighted MR brain images

We propose a deep study on tissue modelization andclassification Techniques on T1-weighted MR images. Threeapproaches have been taken into account to perform thisvalidation study. Two of them are based on FiniteGaussian Mixture (FGM) model. The first one consists onlyin pure gaussian distributions (FGM-EM). The second oneuses a different model for partial volume (PV) (FGM-GA).The third one is based on a Hidden Markov Random Field(HMRF) model. All methods have been tested on a DigitalBrain Phantom image considered as the ground truth. Noiseand intensity non-uniformities have been added tosimulate real image conditions. Also the effect of ananisotropic filter is considered. Results demonstratethat methods relying in both intensity and spatialinformation are in general more robust to noise andinhomogeneities. However, in some cases there is nosignificant differences between all presented methods.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Risk prediction of prevalent diabetes in a Swiss population using a weighted genetic score--the CoLaus Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several susceptibility genes for type 2 diabetes have been discovered recently. Individually, these genes increase the disease risk only minimally. The goals of the present study were to determine, at the population level, the risk of diabetes in individuals who carry risk alleles within several susceptibility genes for the disease and the added value of this genetic information over the clinical predictors. METHODS: We constructed an additive genetic score using the most replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 15 type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes, weighting each SNP with its reported effect. We tested this score in the extensively phenotyped population-based cross-sectional CoLaus Study in Lausanne, Switzerland (n = 5,360), involving 356 diabetic individuals. RESULTS: The clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes were age, BMI, family history of diabetes, WHR, and triacylglycerol/HDL-cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for these variables, the risk of diabetes was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0, p = 0.000006) for individuals with a genetic score within the top quintile, compared with the bottom quintile. Adding the genetic score to the clinical covariates improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve slightly (from 0.86 to 0.87), yet significantly (p = 0.002). BMI was similar in these two extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this population, a simple weighted 15 SNP-based genetic score provides additional information over clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes. At this stage, however, the clinical benefit of this genetic information is limited.

Device-specific weighted T-score for two quantitative ultrasounds: operational propositions for the management of osteoporosis for 65 years and older women in Switzerland.

The World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for the diagnosis of osteoporosis are mainly applicable for dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements at the spine and hip levels. There is a growing demand for cheaper devices, free of ionizing radiation such as promising quantitative ultrasound (QUS). In common with many other countries, QUS measurements are increasingly used in Switzerland without adequate clinical guidelines. The T-score approach developed for DXA cannot be applied to QUS, although well-conducted prospective studies have shown that ultrasound could be a valuable predictor of fracture risk. As a consequence, an expert committee named the Swiss Quality Assurance Project (SQAP, for which the main mission is the establishment of quality assurance procedures for DXA and QUS in Switzerland) was mandated by the Swiss Association Against Osteoporosis (ASCO) in 2000 to propose operational clinical recommendations for the use of QUS in the management of osteoporosis for two QUS devices sold in Switzerland. Device-specific weighted "T-score" based on the risk of osteoporotic hip fractures as well as on the prediction of DXA osteoporosis at the hip, according to the WHO definition of osteoporosis, were calculated for the Achilles (Lunar, General Electric, Madison, Wis.) and Sahara (Hologic, Waltham, Mass.) ultrasound devices. Several studies (totaling a few thousand subjects) were used to calculate age-adjusted odd ratios (OR) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the prediction of osteoporotic fracture (taking into account a weighting score depending on the design of the study involved in the calculation). The ORs were 2.4 (1.9-3.2) and AUC 0.72 (0.66-0.77), respectively, for the Achilles, and 2.3 (1.7-3.1) and 0.75 (0.68-0.82), respectively, for the Sahara device. To translate risk estimates into thresholds for clinical application, 90% sensitivity was used to define low fracture and low osteoporosis risk, and a specificity of 80% was used to define subjects as being at high risk of fracture or having osteoporosis at the hip. From the combination of the fracture model with the hip DXA osteoporotic model, we found a T-score threshold of -1.2 and -2.5 for the stiffness (Achilles) determining, respectively, the low- and high-risk subjects. Similarly, we found a T-score at -1.0 and -2.2 for the QUI index (Sahara). Then a screening strategy combining QUS, DXA, and clinical factors for the identification of women needing treatment was proposed. The application of this approach will help to minimize the inappropriate use of QUS from which the whole field currently suffers.

Alveolar echinococcosis of the liver: Diffusion-weighted MRI findings and potential role in lesion characterisation

PURPOSE: To report the diffusion-weighted MRI findings in alveolar echinococcosis (AE) of the liver and evaluate the potential role of apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) in the characterisation of lesions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively included 22 patients with 63 AE liver lesions (≥1cm), examined with 3-T liver MRI, including a free-breathing diffusion-weighted single-shot echo-planar imaging sequence (b-values=50, 300 and 600s/mm(2)). Two radiologists jointly assessed the following lesion features: size, location, presence of cystic and/or solid components (according to Kodama's classification system), relative contrast enhancement, and calcifications (on CT). The ADCtotal, ADCmin and ADCmax were measured in each lesion and the surrounding liver parenchyma. RESULTS: Three type 1, 19 type 2, 17 type 3, three type 4 and 21 type 5 lesions were identified. The mean (±SD) ADCtotal, ADCmin and ADCmax for all lesions were 1.73±0.50, 0.76±0.38 and 2.63±0.76×10(-3)mm(2)/s, respectively. The mean ADCtotal for type 1, type 2, type 3, type 4 and type 5 lesions were 1.97±1.01, 1.76±0.53, 1.73±0.41, 1.15±0.42 and 1.76±0.44×10(-3)mm(2)/s, respectively. No significant differences were found between the five lesion types, except for type 4 (p=0.0363). There was a significant correlation between the presence of a solid component and low ADCmin (r=0.39, p=0.0016), whereas an inverse correlation was found between the relative contrast enhancement and ADCtotal (r=-0.34, p=0.0072). CONCLUSION: The ADCs of AE lesions are relatively low compared to other cystic liver lesions, which may help in the differential diagnosis. Although ADCs are of little use to distinguish between the five lesion types, their low value reflects the underlying solid component.

T1-weighted MRI as a substitute to CT for refocusing planning in MR-guided focused ultrasound.

Precise focusing is essential for transcranial MRI-guided focused ultrasound (TcMRgFUS) to minimize collateral damage to non-diseased tissues and to achieve temperatures capable of inducing coagulative necrosis at acceptable power deposition levels. CT is usually used for this refocusing but requires a separate study (CT) ahead of the TcMRgFUS procedure. The goal of this study was to determine whether MRI using an appropriate sequence would be a viable alternative to CT for planning ultrasound refocusing in TcMRgFUS. We tested three MRI pulse sequences (3D T1 weighted 3D volume interpolated breath hold examination (VIBE), proton density weighted 3D sampling perfection with applications optimized contrasts using different flip angle evolution and 3D true fast imaging with steady state precision T2-weighted imaging) on patients who have already had a CT scan performed. We made detailed measurements of the calvarial structure based on the MRI data and compared those so-called 'virtual CT' to detailed measurements of the calvarial structure based on the CT data, used as a reference standard. We then loaded both standard and virtual CT in a TcMRgFUS device and compared the calculated phase correction values, as well as the temperature elevation in a phantom. A series of Bland-Altman measurement agreement analyses showed T1 3D VIBE as the optimal MRI sequence, with respect to minimizing the measurement discrepancy between the MRI derived total skull thickness measurement and the CT derived total skull thickness measurement (mean measurement discrepancy: 0.025; 95% CL (-0.22-0.27); p = 0.825). The T1-weighted sequence was also optimal in estimating skull CT density and skull layer thickness. The mean difference between the phase shifts calculated with the standard CT and the virtual CT reconstructed from the T1 dataset was 0.08 ± 1.2 rad on patients and 0.1 ± 0.9 rad on phantom. Compared to the real CT, the MR-based correction showed a 1 °C drop on the maximum temperature elevation in the phantom (7% relative drop). Without any correction, the maximum temperature was down 6 °C (43% relative drop). We have developed an approach that allows for a reconstruction of a virtual CT dataset from MRI to perform phase correction in TcMRgFUS.

Investigation of field and diffusion time dependence of the diffusion-weighted signal at ultrahigh magnetic fields.

Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the number of high-magnetic-field MRI magnets. However, the exact effect of a high magnetic field strength (B0 ) on diffusion-weighted MR signals is not yet fully understood. The goal of this study was to investigate the influence of different high magnetic field strengths (9.4 T and 14.1 T) and diffusion times (9, 11, 13, 15, 17 and 24 ms) on the diffusion-weighted signal in rat brain white matter. At a short diffusion time (9 ms), fractional anisotropy values were found to be lower at 14.1 T than at 9.4 T, but this difference disappeared at longer diffusion times. A simple two-pool model was used to explain these findings. The model describes the white matter as a first hindered compartment (often associated with the extra-axonal space), characterized by a faster orthogonal diffusion and a lower fractional anisotropy, and a second restricted compartment (often associated with the intra-axonal space), characterized by a slower orthogonal diffusion (i.e. orthogonal to the axon direction) and a higher fractional anisotropy. Apparent T2 relaxation time measurements of the hindered and restricted pools were performed. The shortening of the pseudo-T2 value from the restricted compartment with B0 is likely to be more pronounced than the apparent T2 changes in the hindered compartment. This study suggests that the observed differences in diffusion tensor imaging parameters between the two magnetic field strengths at short diffusion time may be related to differences in the apparent T2 values between the pools. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the spine at 3-T: feasibility, optimization of b-value and utility to differentiate benign from pathological vertebral compression fractures

Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility, determine the optimal b-value, and assess the utility of 3-T diffusion-weighted MR imaging (DWI) of the spine in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.Methods and Materials: Twenty patients with 38 vertebral compression fractures (24 benign, 14 pathologic) and 20 controls (total: 23 men, 17 women, mean age 56.2years) were included from December 2010 to May 2011 in this IRB-approved prospective study. MR imaging of the spine was performed on a 3-T unit with T1-w, fat-suppressed T2-w, gadolinium-enhanced fat-suppressed T1-w and zoomed-EPI (2D RF excitation pulse combined with reduced field-of-view single-shot echo-planar readout) diffusion-w (b-values: 0, 300, 500 and 700s/mm2) sequences. Two radiologists independently assessed zoomed-EPI image quality in random order using a 4-point scale: 1=excellent to 4=poor. They subsequently measured apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) in normal vertebral bodies and compression fractures, in consensus.Results: Lower b-values correlated with better image quality scores, with significant differences between b=300 (mean±SD=2.6±0.8), b=500 (3.0±0.7) and b=700 (3.6±0.6) (all p<0.001). Mean ADCs of normal vertebral bodies (n=162) were 0.23, 0.17 and 0.11×10-3mm2/s with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. In contrast, mean ADCs were 0.89, 0.70 and 0.59×10-3mm2/s for benign vertebral compression fractures and 0.79, 0.66 and 0.51×10-3mm2/s for pathologic fractures with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. No significant difference was found between ADCs of benign and pathologic fractures.Conclusion: 3-T DWI of the spine is feasible and lower b-values (300s/mm2) are recommended. However, our preliminary results show no advantage of DWI in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.