Aspirin and statin use and the subsequent development of depression in men and women: Results from a longitudinal population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Low-grade chronic inflammation is one potential mechanism underlying the well-established association between major depressive disorder (MDD) and increased cardiovascular morbidity. Both aspirin and statins have anti-inflammatory properties, which may contribute to their preventive effect on cardiovascular diseases. Previous studies on the potentially preventive effect of these drugs on depression have provided inconsistent results. The aim of the present paper was to assess the prospective association between regular aspirin or statin use and the incidence of MDD. METHOD: This prospective cohort study included 1631 subjects (43.6% women, mean age 51.7 years), randomly selected from the general population of an urban area. Subjects underwent a thorough physical evaluation as well as semi-structured interviews investigating DSM-IV mental disorders at baseline and follow-up (mean duration 5.2 years). Analyses were adjusted for a wide array of potential confounders. RESULTS: Our main finding was that regular aspirin or statin use at baseline did not reduce the incidence of MDD during follow-up, regardless of sex or age (hazard ratios, aspirin: 1.19; 95%CI, 0.68-2.08; and statins: 1.25; 95%CI, 0.73-2.14; respectively). LIMITATIONS: Our study is not a randomized clinical trial and could not adjust for all potential confounding factors, information on aspirin or statin use was collected only for the 6 months prior to the evaluations, and the sample was restricted to subjects between 35 and 66 years of age. CONCLUSION: Our data do not support a large scale preventive treatment of depression using aspirin or statins in subjects aged from 35 to 66 years from the community.

Men perform comparably to women in a perspective taking task after administration of intranasal oxytocin but not after placebo

Oxytocin (OT) is thought to play an important role in human interpersonal information processing and behavior. By inference, OT should facilitate empathic responding, i.e. the ability to feel for others and to take their perspective. In two independent double-blind, placebo-controlled between-subjects studies, we assessed the effect of intranasally administered OT on affective empathy and perspective taking, whilst also examining potential sex differences (e.g., women being more empathic than men). In study 1, we provided 96 participants (48 men) with an empathy scenario and recorded self reports of empathic reactions to the scenario, while in study 2, a sample of 120 individuals (60 men) performed a computerized implicit perspective taking task. Whilst results from Study 1 showed no influence of OT on affective empathy, we found in Study 2 that OT exerted an effect on perspective taking ability in men. More specifically, men responded faster than women in the placebo group but they responded as slowly as women in the OT group. We conjecture that men in the OT group adopted a social perspective taking strategy, such as did women in both groups, but not men in the placebo group. On the basis of results across both studies, we suggest that self-report measures (such as used in Study 1) might be less sensitive to OT effects than more implicit measures of empathy such as that used in Study 2. If these assumptions are confirmed, one could infer that OT effects on empathic responses are more pronounced in men than women, and that any such effect is best studied using more implicit measures of empathy rather than explicit self-report measures.

Men and women differ in their cardiovascular responses to affective pictures

Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that emotional states might contribute to cardiovascular disease and health through multiple pathways. To the extent that the acute cardiovascular response to emotional events plays a role in cardiovascular health and disease, an essential step in order to understand this possible link is to define the hemodynamic response to affective challenges. This was the aim of the present study. We assessed blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), stroke volume (SV), cardiac output, and total peripheral resistance (TPR) in response to 13 picture series in 18 men and 19 women (mean age 26) in order to investigate their hemodynamic responses associated with activation of the appetitive and defensive motivational systems underlying emotional experience. The hemodynamic parameters were recorded by finger-cuff photoplethysmography with Finometer™ (FMS Finapres Medical Systems, Amsterdam) and electrocardiography with the Lifeshirt system (VivoMetrics Inc., Ventura, California). Participants rated self-perceived pleasantness and arousal for each series. In men, BP and SV, but not TPR, increased with increasing self-rated arousal both for appetitive and defensive activation, whereas in women these relationships were almost absent, especially, for defensive activation. HR decelerated more in response to negative than positive and neutral pictures, and more so in men than women. These findings indicate striking sex differences. In particular, it is suggested that the sympathetic inotropic effect to the heart increases with increasing self-rated arousal strongly in men but only weakly in women. Regardless of sex differences, the modulation of the cardiovascular response to affective pictures along the dimensions of pleasantness and arousal is primarily myocardial, and the pattern of cardiovascular response is consistent with a configuration of cardiac sympathetic-parasympathetic coactivation. One possible implication of the observed sex differences concerns the link between affective states and cardiovascular health and disease. Men have a higher incidence of cardiovascular diseases than premenopausal women, and exaggerated sympathetic reactivity to emotional events is a potential pathophysiological mechanism. These findings extend current knowledge showing that under several acute behavioral challenges men demonstrate stronger cardiovascular reactivity than women.

Changes of overweight and obesity in the adult Swiss population according to educational level, from 1992 to 2007.

In many high income developed countries, obesity is inversely associated with educational level. In some countries, a widening gap of obesity between educational groups has been reported. The aim of this study was to assess trends in body mass index (BMI) and in prevalence of overweight and obesity and their association with educational level in the adult Swiss population. Four cross-sectional National health interview surveys conducted in 1992/93 (n = 14,521), 1997 (n = 12,474), 2002 (n = 18,908) and 2007 (n = 17,879) using representative samples of the Swiss population (age range 18-102 years). BMI was derived from self-reported data. Overweight was defined as BMI > or = 25 and <30 kg/m(2), and obesity as BMI > or = 30 kg/m(2). Mean (+/- standard deviation) BMI increased from 24.7 +/- 3.6 in 1992/3 to 25.4 +/- 3.6 kg/m2 in 2007 in men and 22.8 +/- 3.8 to 23.7 +/- 4.3 kg/m(2) in women. Between 1992/3 and 2007, the prevalence of overweight + obesity increased from 40.4% to 49.5% in men and from 22.3% to 31.3% in women, while the prevalence of obesity increased from 6.3% to 9.4% in men and from 4.9% to 8.5% in women. The rate of increase in the prevalence of obesity was greater between 1992/3 and 2002 (men: +0.26%/year; women: +0.31%/year) than between 2002 and 2007 (men: +0.10%/year; women: +0.10%/year). A sizable fraction (approximately 25%) of the increasing mean BMI was due to increasing age of the participants over time. The increase was larger in low than high education strata of the population. BMI was strongly associated with low educational level among women and this gradient remained fairly constant over time. A weaker similar gradient by educational level was apparent in men, but it tended to increase over time. In Switzerland, overweight and obesity increased between 1992 and 2007 and was associated with low education status in both men and women. A trend towards a stabilization of mean BMI levels was noted in most age categories since 2002. The increase in the prevalence of obesity was larger in low education strata of the population. These findings suggest that obesity preventive measures should be targeted according to educational level in Switzerland.

Epidemiology and prevention of cardiovascular disease in the Seychelles Islands (Indian Ocean)

This article presents selected findings and lessons from a cardiovascular research and prevention program initiated in 1989 in the Republic of Seychelles, a country in demographic and epidemiological transition. Rapid and sustained aging of the population (e.g., two-fold increase of people aged 30-39 from 1979 to 1995) implies, over the next few decades, further dramatic increase of the burden of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD). Epidemiological surveillance shows high age-specific rates of CVD (particularly stroke), high prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis (plaques in carotid and femoral arteries), high prevalence of classical modifiable risk factors in the adult population (particularly hypertension), and substantial proportions of children with overweight. Stagnant life expectancy in men and an increase in women have been observed over the last two decades; this occurred despite largely improved health services and reduced infant mortality rates, and may reflect the large CVD burden found in middle-aged men (less so in middle-aged women). A national program of prevention of CVD has been initiated since 1991, which includes a mix of interventions to reduce risk factors in the general population and in high-risk individuals. Substantial research to back the prevention program indeed shows, at the moment, epidemiological patterns in Seychelles similar to those observed in Western countries (e.g., an association between peripheral atherosclerosis [as a proxy of CVD] and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol, smoking, diabetes, and [inversely] walking). This clearly supports the view that promotion of healthy lifestyles and control of conventional risk factors should be the main targets for CVD prevention and control.

Coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality in young adults: recent trends in Europe.

Background: Over the last two decades, mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) declined by about 30% in the European Union (EU). Design: We analyzed trends in CHD (X ICD codes: I20-I25) and CVD (X ICD codes: I60-I69) mortality in young adults (age 35-44 years) in the EU as a whole and in 12 selected European countries, over the period 1980-2007. Methods: Data were derived from the World Health Organization mortality database. With joinpoint regression analysis, we identified significant changes in trends and estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC). Results: CHD mortality rates at ages 35-44 years have decreased in both sexes since the 1980s for most countries, except for Russia (130/100,000 men and 24/100,000 women, in 2005-7). The lowest rates (around 9/100,000 men, 2/100,000 women) were in France, Italy and Sweden. In men, the steepest declines in mortality were in the Czech Republic (AAPC = -6.1%), the Netherlands (-5.2%), Poland (-4.5%), and England and Wales (-4.5%). Patterns were similar in women, though with appreciably lower rates. The AAPC in the EU was -3.3% for men (rate = 16.6/100,000 in 2005-7) and -2.1% for women (rate = 3.5/100,000). For CVD, Russian rates in 2005-7 were 40/100,000 men and 16/100,000 women, 5 to 10-fold higher than in most western European countries. The steepest declines were in the Czech Republic and Italy for men, in Sweden and the Czech Republic for women. The AAPC in the EU was -2.5% in both sexes, with steeper declines after the mid-late 1990s (rates = 6.4/100,000 men and 4.3/100,000 women in 2005-7). Conclusions: CHD and CVD mortality steadily declined in Europe, except in Russia, whose rates were 10 to 15-fold higher than those of France, Italy or Sweden. Hungary and Poland, and also Scotland, where CHD trends were less favourable than in other western European countries, also emerge as priorities for preventive interventions.

Inflammatory markers and blood pressure: sex differences and the effect of fat mass in the CoLaus Study.

Several studies have reported high levels of inflammatory biomarkers in hypertension, but data coming from the general population are sparse, and sex differences have been little explored. The CoLaus Study is a cross-sectional examination survey in a random sample of 6067 Caucasians aged 35-75 years in Lausanne, Switzerland. Blood pressure (BP) was assessed using a validated oscillometric device. Anthropometric parameters were also measured, including body composition, using electrical bioimpedance. Crude serum levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) and ultrasensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were positively and IL-1β (IL-1β) negatively (P<0.001 for all values), associated with BP. For IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α, the association disappeared in multivariable analysis, largely explained by differences in age and body mass index, in particular fat mass. On the contrary, hsCRP remained independently and positively associated with systolic (β (95% confidence interval): 1.15 (0.64; 1.65); P<0.001) and diastolic (0.75 (0.42; 1.08); P<0.001) BP. Relationships of hsCRP, IL-6 and TNF-α with BP tended to be stronger in women than in men, partly related to the difference in fat mass, yet the interaction between sex and IL-6 persisted after correction for all tested confounders. In the general population, the associations between inflammatory biomarkers and rising levels of BP are mainly driven by age and fat mass. The stronger associations in women suggest that sex differences might exist in the complex interplay between BP and inflammation.

Selective accumulation of differentiated FOXP3(+) CD4 (+) T cells in metastatic tumor lesions from melanoma patients compared to peripheral blood

Precise identification of regulatory T cells is crucial in the understanding of their role in human cancers. Here, we analyzed the frequency and phenotype of regulatory T cells (Tregs), in both healthy donors and melanoma patients, based on the expression of the transcription factor FOXP3, which, to date, is the most reliable marker for Tregs, at least in mice. We observed that FOXP3 expression is not confined to human CD25(+/high) CD4(+) T cells, and that these cells are not homogenously FOXP3(+). The circulating relative levels of FOXP3(+) CD4(+) T cells may fluctuate close to 2-fold over a short period of observation and are significantly higher in women than in men. Further, we showed that FOXP3(+) CD4(+) T cells are over-represented in peripheral blood of melanoma patients, as compared to healthy donors, and that they are even more enriched in tumor-infiltrated lymph nodes and at tumor sites, but not in normal lymph nodes. Interestingly, in melanoma patients, a significantly higher proportion of functional, antigen-experienced FOXP3(+) CD4(+) T was observed at tumor sites, compared to peripheral blood. Together, our data suggest that local accumulation and differentiation of Tregs is, at least in part, tumor-driven, and illustrate a reliable combination of markers for their monitoring in various clinical settings.

The relation of body mass index and abdominal adiposity with dyslipidemia in 27 general populations of the WHO MONICA Project.

The association between adiposity measures and dyslipidemia has seldom been assessed in a multipopulational setting. 27 populations from Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada (WHO MONICA project) using health surveys conducted between 1990 and 1997 in adults aged 35-64 years (n = 40,480). Dyslipidemia was defined as the total/HDL cholesterol ratio >6 (men) and >5 (women). Overall prevalence of dyslipidemia was 25% in men and 23% in women. Logistic regression showed that dyslipidemia was strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) in men and with waist circumference (WC) in women, after adjusting for region, age and smoking. Among normal-weight men and women (BMI<25 kg/m(2)), an increase in the odds for being dyslipidemic was observed between lowest and highest WC quartiles (OR = 3.6, p < 0.001). Among obese men (BMI ≥ 30), the corresponding increase was smaller (OR = 1.2, p = 0.036). A similar weakening was observed among women. Classification tree analysis was performed to assign subjects into classes of risk for dyslipidemia. BMI thresholds (25.4 and 29.2 kg/m(2)) in men and WC thresholds (81.7 and 92.6 cm) in women came out at first stages. High WC (>84.8 cm) in normal-weight men, menopause in women and regular smoking further defined subgroups at increased risk. standard categories of BMI and WC, or their combinations, do not lead to optimal risk stratification for dyslipidemia in middle-age adults. Sex-specific adaptations are necessary, in particular by taking into account abdominal obesity in normal-weight men, post-menopausal age in women and regular smoking in both sexes.

Hyperhomocysteinemia is independently associated with albuminuria in the population-based CoLaus study.

Increased serum levels of homocysteine and uric acid have each been associated with cardiovascular risk. We analyzed whether homocysteine and uric acid were associated with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria independently of each other. We also investigated the association of MTHFR polymorphisms related to homocysteine with albuminuria to get further insight into causality. This was a cross-sectional population-based study in Caucasians (n = 5913). Hyperhomocysteinemia was defined as total serum homocysteine ≥ 15 μmol/L. Albuminuria was defined as urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio > 30 mg/g. Uric acid was associated positively with homocysteine (r = 0.246 in men and r = 0.287 in women, P < 0.001). The prevalence of albuminuria increased across increasing homocysteine categories (from 6.4% to 17.3% in subjects with normal GFR and from 3.5% to 14.5% in those with reduced GFR, P for trend < 0.005). Hyperhomocysteinemia (OR = 2.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.60-3.08, P < 0.001) and elevated serum uric acid (OR = 1.27, 1.08-1.50, per 100 μmol/L, P = 0.004) were significantly associated with albuminuria, independently of hypertension and type 2 diabetes. The 2-fold higher risk of albuminuria associated with hyperhomocysteinemia was similar to the risk associated with hypertension or diabetes. MTHFR alleles related to higher homocysteine were associated with increased risk of albuminuria. In the general adult population, elevated serum homocysteine and uric acid were associated with albuminuria independently of each other and of renal function.

Health correlates of overweight and obesity in adults aged 50 years and over: results from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE)

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To examine the association between overweight/obesity and several self-reported chronic diseases, symptoms and disability measures. METHODS: Data from eleven European countries participating in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe were used. 18,584 non-institutionalised individuals aged 50 years and over with BMI > or = 18.5 (kg/m2) were included. BMI was categorized into normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9), overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9) and obesity (BMI > or = 30). Dependent variables were 13 diagnosed chronic conditions, 11 health complaints, subjective health and physical disability measures. For both genders, multiple logistic regressions were performed adjusting for age, socioeconomic status and behaviour risks. RESULTS: The odds ratios for high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, arthritis, joint pain and swollen legs were significantly increased for overweight and obese adults. Compared to normal-weight individuals, the odds ratio (OR) for reporting > or = 2 chronic diseases was 2.4 (95% CI 1.9-2.9) for obese men and 2.7 (95% CI 2.2-3.1) for obese women. Overweight and obese women were more likely to report health symptoms. Obesity in men (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6), and overweight (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6) and obesity (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.5) in women, were associated with poorer subjective health (i.e. a decreased risk of reporting excellent, very good or good subjective health). Disability outcomes were those showing the greatest differences in strength of association across BMI categories, and between genders. For example, the OR for any difficulty in walking 100 metres was non-significant at 0.8 for overweight men, at 1.9 (95% CI 1.3-2.7) for obese men, at 1.4 (95% CI 1.1-1.8) for overweight women, and at 3.5 (95% CI 2.6-4.7) for obese women. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the impact of increased BMI on morbidity and disability. Healthcare stakeholders of the participating countries should be aware of the substantial burden that obesity places on the general health and autonomy of adults aged over 50.

Management of fragility fractures in Switzerland: results of a nationwide survey.

A nationwide survey was conducted in Switzerland to assess the quality level of osteoporosis management in patients aged 50 years or older presenting with a fragility fracture to the emergency ward of the participating hospitals. Eight centres recruited 4966 consecutive patients who presented with one or more fractures between 2004 and 2006. Of these, 3667 (2797 women, 73.8 years old and 870 men, 73.0 years old in average) were considered as having a fragility fracture and included in the survey. Included patients presented with a fracture of the upper limbs (30.7%), lower limbs (26.4%), axial skeleton (19.5%) or another localisation, including malleolar fractures (23.4%). Thirty-two percent reported one or more previous fractures during adulthood. Of the 2941 (80.2%) hospitalised women and men, only half returned home after discharge. During diagnostic workup, dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement was performed in 31.4% of the patients only. Of those 46.0% had a T-score < or =-2.5 SD and 81.1% < or =-1.0 SD. Osteoporosis treatment rate increased from 26.3% before fracture to 46.9% after fracture in women and from 13.0% to 30.3% in men. However, only 24.0% of the women and 13.8% of the men were finally adequately treated with a bone active substance, generally an oral bisphosphonate, with or without calcium / vitamin D supplements. A positive history of previous fracture vs none increased the likelihood of getting treatment with a bone active substance (36.6 vs 17.9%, ? 18.7%, 95% CI 15.1 to 22.3, and 22.6 vs 9.9%, ? 12.7%, CI 7.3 to 18.5, in women and men, respectively). In Switzerland, osteoporosis remains underdiagnosed and undertreated in patients aged 50 years and older presenting with a fragility fracture.

Prevalence, awareness and treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Switzerland: the CoLaus study.

ABSTRACT: Aims To assess the prevalence, awareness and treatment levels of Type 2 diabetes in a Swiss city. Methods Population-based cross-sectional study of 6181 subjects (3246 women) aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Type 2 diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose >/= 7 mmol/l and/or oral hypoglycaemic treatment and/or insulin. Results Total prevalence of Type 2 diabetes was 6.3% (95% confidence interval: 5.7-7.0%), higher in men (9.1%) than in women (3.8%, P < 0.001) and increased with age. Two-thirds (65.3%; 60.4-70.0%) of participants with Type 2 diabetes were aware of their status and among those aware 86.0% (81.5-90.3%) were treated. Treatment was more frequent in men (91.3%) than in women (75.9%, P < 0.001). Two-thirds of those treated for Type 2 diabetes were on monotherapy. Biguanides were prescribed in 65.0% of Type 2 diabetes patients and represented 48% of all antidiabetic drugs. Multivariable analysis showed male gender, increasing age, waist or BMI to be positively associated with prevalence of Type 2 diabetes, while leisure-time physical activity and alcohol consumption were negatively associated. Among participants presenting with Type 2 diabetes, increasing age was positively associated with awareness of Type 2 diabetes. Among subjects diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes, male gender and increasing age were positively associated with treatment. Conclusion Prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in Switzerland is estimated to be between 5.7% and 7.0%. Two-thirds of patients with Type 2 diabetes are aware of their status, and over three quarters of those aware are treated.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in young adults: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium.

BACKGROUND: Increasing incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in young adults has been reported. We aimed to compare the role of major risk factors and family history of cancer in HNC in young adults and older patients. METHODS: We pooled data from 25 case-control studies and conducted separate analyses for adults ≤45 years old ('young adults', 2010 cases and 4042 controls) and >45 years old ('older adults', 17 700 cases and 22 704 controls). Using logistic regression with studies treated as random effects, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The young group of cases had a higher proportion of oral tongue cancer (16.0% in women; 11.0% in men) and unspecified oral cavity / oropharynx cancer (16.2%; 11.1%) and a lower proportion of larynx cancer (12.1%; 16.6%) than older adult cases. The proportions of never smokers or never drinkers among female cases were higher than among male cases in both age groups. Positive associations with HNC and duration or pack-years of smoking and drinking were similar across age groups. However, the attributable fractions (AFs) for smoking and drinking were lower in young when compared with older adults (AFs for smoking in young women, older women, young men and older men, respectively, = 19.9% (95% CI = 9.8%, 27.9%), 48.9% (46.6%, 50.8%), 46.2% (38.5%, 52.5%), 64.3% (62.2%, 66.4%); AFs for drinking = 5.3% (-11.2%, 18.0%), 20.0% (14.5%, 25.0%), 21.5% (5.0%, 34.9%) and 50.4% (46.1%, 54.3%). A family history of early-onset cancer was associated with HNC risk in the young [OR = 2.27 (95% CI = 1.26, 4.10)], but not in the older adults [OR = 1.10 (0.91, 1.31)]. The attributable fraction for family history of early-onset cancer was 23.2% (8.60% to 31.4%) in young compared with 2.20% (-2.41%, 5.80%) in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in HNC aetiology according to age group may exist. The lower AF of cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking in young adults may be due to the reduced length of exposure due to the lower age. Other characteristics, such as those that are inherited, may play a more important role in HNC in young adults compared with older adults.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.