Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Conjunctival MALT lymphoma: utility of FDG PET/CT for diagnosis, staging, and evaluation of treatment response.

A 67-year-old woman was referred for staging of a mucosa-associated lymphoid tumor lymphoma involving the left conjunctiva. CT scan had shown paravertebral and pelvic masses, and a breast nodule. FDG PET/CT demonstrated moderately increased uptake in the left ocular conjunctiva and confirmed the paravertebral and pelvic masses and the breast nodule. Moreover, abnormal FDG uptake was shown in 2 breast nodules, the flank, the gluteus maximus, and the gastric cardia. The patient received 6 cycles of rituximab-bendamustine chemotherapy with a complete clinical and metabolic response at the 6-month follow-up PET/CT and remained relapse-free without visual acuity problem after a 36-month follow-up.

Neuroendocrine, metabolic, and immune functions during the acute phase response of inflammatory stress in monosodium L-glutamate-damaged, hyperadipose male rat.

In rats, neonatal treatment with monosodium L-glutamate (MSG) induces several metabolic and neuroendocrine abnormalities, which result in hyperadiposity. No data exist, however, regarding neuroendocrine, immune and metabolic responses to acute endotoxemia in the MSG-damaged rat. We studied the consequences of MSG treatment during the acute phase response of inflammatory stress. Neonatal male rats were treated with MSG or vehicle (controls, CTR) and studied at age 90 days. Pituitary, adrenal, adipo-insular axis, immune, metabolic and gonadal functions were explored before and up to 5 h after single sub-lethal i.p. injection of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 150 microg/kg). Our results showed that, during the acute phase response of inflammatory stress in MSG rats: (1) the corticotrope-adrenal, leptin, insulin and triglyceride responses were higher than in CTR rats, (2) pro-inflammatory (TNFalpha) cytokine response was impaired and anti-inflammatory (IL-10) cytokine response was normal, and (3) changes in peripheral estradiol and testosterone levels after LPS varied as in CTR rats. These data indicate that metabolic and neroendocrine-immune functions are altered in MSG-damaged rats. Our study also suggests that the enhanced corticotrope-corticoadrenal activity in MSG animals could be responsible, at least in part, for the immune and metabolic derangements characterizing hypothalamic obesity.

Nuclear receptor Rev-erb alpha (Nr1d1) functions in concert with Nr2e3 to regulate transcriptional networks in the retina.

The majority of diseases in the retina are caused by genetic mutations affecting the development and function of photoreceptor cells. The transcriptional networks directing these processes are regulated by genes such as nuclear hormone receptors. The nuclear hormone receptor gene Rev-erb alpha/Nr1d1 has been widely studied for its role in the circadian cycle and cell metabolism, however its role in the retina is unknown. In order to understand the role of Rev-erb alpha/Nr1d1 in the retina, we evaluated the effects of loss of Nr1d1 to the developing retina and its co-regulation with the photoreceptor-specific nuclear receptor gene Nr2e3 in the developing and mature retina. Knock-down of Nr1d1 expression in the developing retina results in pan-retinal spotting and reduced retinal function by electroretinogram. Our studies show that NR1D1 protein is co-expressed with NR2E3 in the outer neuroblastic layer of the developing mouse retina. In the adult retina, NR1D1 is expressed in the ganglion cell layer and is co-expressed with NR2E3 in the outer nuclear layer, within rods and cones. Several genes co-targeted by NR2E3 and NR1D1 were identified that include: Nr2c1, Recoverin, Rgr, Rarres2, Pde8a, and Nupr1. We examined the cyclic expression of Nr1d1 and Nr2e3 over a twenty-four hour period and observed that both nuclear receptors cycle in a similar manner. Taken together, these studies reveal a novel role for Nr1d1, in conjunction with its cofactor Nr2e3, in regulating transcriptional networks critical for photoreceptor development and function.

Identifying the neural correlates of executive functions in early cerebral microangiopathy: a combined VBM and DTI study.

Cerebral microangiopathy (CMA) has been associated with executive dysfunction and fronto-parietal neural network disruption. Advances in magnetic resonance imaging allow more detailed analyses of gray (e.g., voxel-based morphometry-VBM) and white matter (e.g., diffusion tensor imaging-DTI) than traditional visual rating scales. The current study investigated patients with early CMA and healthy control subjects with all three approaches. Neuropsychological assessment focused on executive functions, the cognitive domain most discussed in CMA. The DTI and age-related white matter changes rating scales revealed convergent results showing widespread white matter changes in early CMA. Correlations were found in frontal and parietal areas exclusively with speeded, but not with speed-corrected executive measures. The VBM analyses showed reduced gray matter in frontal areas. All three approaches confirmed the hypothesized fronto-parietal network disruption in early CMA. Innovative methods (DTI) converged with results from conventional methods (visual rating) while allowing greater spatial and tissue accuracy. They are thus valid additions to the analysis of neural correlates of cognitive dysfunction. We found a clear distinction between speeded and nonspeeded executive measures in relationship to imaging parameters. Cognitive slowing is related to disease severity in early CMA and therefore important for early diagnostics.

Peroxisomal beta-oxidation--a metabolic pathway with multiple functions.

Fatty acid degradation in most organisms occurs primarily via the beta-oxidation cycle. In mammals, beta-oxidation occurs in both mitochondria and peroxisomes, whereas plants and most fungi harbor the beta-oxidation cycle only in the peroxisomes. Although several of the enzymes participating in this pathway in both organelles are similar, some distinct physiological roles have been uncovered. Recent advances in the structural elucidation of numerous mammalian and yeast enzymes involved in beta-oxidation have shed light on the basis of the substrate specificity for several of them. Of particular interest is the structural organization and function of the type 1 and 2 multifunctional enzyme (MFE-1 and MFE-2), two enzymes evolutionarily distant yet catalyzing the same overall enzymatic reactions but via opposite stereochemistry. New data on the physiological roles of the various enzymes participating in beta-oxidation have been gathered through the analysis of knockout mutants in plants, yeast and animals, as well as by the use of polyhydroxyalkanoate synthesis from beta-oxidation intermediates as a tool to study carbon flux through the pathway. In plants, both forward and reverse genetics performed on the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana have revealed novel roles for beta-oxidation in the germination process that is independent of the generation of carbohydrates for growth, as well as in embryo and flower development, and the generation of the phytohormone indole-3-acetic acid and the signal molecule jasmonic acid.

Macrophages from Crohn's disease patients exhibit deficient pro-repair functions

BACKGROUND: We previously reported that myeloid cells can induce mucosal healing in a mouse model of acute colitis. Promotion of mucosal repair is becoming a major goal in the treatment of Crohn's disease. Our aim in this study is to investigate the pro-repair function of myeloid cells in healthy donor (HD) and Crohn's disease patients (CD). METHODS: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from HD and CD patients were isolated from blood samples by Ficoll density gradient. Monocytic CD14+ cells were positively selected by Macs procedure and then differentiated ex-vivo into macrophages (Mφ). The repair function of PBMC, CD14+ monocytic cells and macrophages were evaluated in an in vitro wound healing assay. RESULTS: PBMC and CD14+ myeloid cells from HD and CD were not able to repair at any tested cell concentration. Remarkably, HD Mφ were able to induce wound healing only at high concentration (105 added Mφ), but, if activated with heat killed bacteria, they were able to repair even at very low concentration. On the contrary, not activated CD Mφ were not able to promote healing at any rate, but this function was restored upon activation. CONCLUSION: We showed that CD Mφ in their steady state, unlike HD Mφ, are defective in promoting wound healing. Our results are in keeping with the current theory of CD as an innate immunodeficiency. Defective Mφ may be responsible to the mucosal repair defects in CD patients and to the subsequent chronic activation of the adaptive immune response.

Is the coiled body involved in nucleolar functions?

Coiled bodies (CBs) are structural constituents observed in nuclei of most eukaryotic cells. They usually occur in the nucleoplasm as well as in contact with the nucleolar surface. In this work we studied the hepatocyte nuclei of hibernating dormice in order to investigate possible modifications of CBs along the seasonal cycle. CBs were abundant during hibernation and rapidly disappeared upon arousal from hibernation. Moreover, CBs were frequently found to be integrated into the nucleolar body. Immunocytochemical analyses showed that CBs contain nucleoplasmic as well as nucleolar RNA-processing factors, suggesting an "ambiguous" role for this organelle in the nuclear functions.

The neuropeptide Y Y1 receptor regulates leptin-mediated control of energy homeostasis and reproductive functions.

The orexigenic neurotransmitter neuropeptide Y (NPY) plays a central role in the hypothalamic control of food intake and energy balance. NPY also exerts an inhibition of the gonadotrope axis that could be important in the response to poor metabolic conditions. In contrast, leptin provides an anorexigenic signal to centrally control the body needs in energy. Moreover, leptin contributes to preserve adequate reproductive functions by stimulating the activity of the gonadotrope axis. It is of interest that hypothalamic NPY represents a primary target of leptin actions. To evaluate the importance of the NPY Y1 and Y5 receptors in the downstream pathways modulated by leptin and controlling energy metabolism as well as the activity of the gonadotrope axis, we studied the effects of leptin administration on food intake and reproductive functions in mice deficient for the expression of either the Y1 or the Y5 receptor. Furthermore, the role of the Y1 receptor in leptin resistance was determined in leptin-deficient ob/ob mice bearing a null mutation in the NPY Y1 locus. Results point to a crucial role for the NPY Y1 receptor in mediating the NPY pathways situated downstream of leptin actions and controlling food intake, the onset of puberty, and the maintenance of reproductive functions.

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the spine at 3-T: feasibility, optimization of b-value and utility to differentiate benign from pathological vertebral compression fractures

Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility, determine the optimal b-value, and assess the utility of 3-T diffusion-weighted MR imaging (DWI) of the spine in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.Methods and Materials: Twenty patients with 38 vertebral compression fractures (24 benign, 14 pathologic) and 20 controls (total: 23 men, 17 women, mean age 56.2years) were included from December 2010 to May 2011 in this IRB-approved prospective study. MR imaging of the spine was performed on a 3-T unit with T1-w, fat-suppressed T2-w, gadolinium-enhanced fat-suppressed T1-w and zoomed-EPI (2D RF excitation pulse combined with reduced field-of-view single-shot echo-planar readout) diffusion-w (b-values: 0, 300, 500 and 700s/mm2) sequences. Two radiologists independently assessed zoomed-EPI image quality in random order using a 4-point scale: 1=excellent to 4=poor. They subsequently measured apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) in normal vertebral bodies and compression fractures, in consensus.Results: Lower b-values correlated with better image quality scores, with significant differences between b=300 (mean±SD=2.6±0.8), b=500 (3.0±0.7) and b=700 (3.6±0.6) (all p<0.001). Mean ADCs of normal vertebral bodies (n=162) were 0.23, 0.17 and 0.11×10-3mm2/s with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. In contrast, mean ADCs were 0.89, 0.70 and 0.59×10-3mm2/s for benign vertebral compression fractures and 0.79, 0.66 and 0.51×10-3mm2/s for pathologic fractures with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. No significant difference was found between ADCs of benign and pathologic fractures.Conclusion: 3-T DWI of the spine is feasible and lower b-values (300s/mm2) are recommended. However, our preliminary results show no advantage of DWI in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.

Post-translational modifications regulate distinct functions of CARMA1 and BCL10.

Activation of the transcription factor nuclear factor (NF)-kappaB is essential for the normal functioning of the immune system. Deregulated NF-kappaB signalling in lymphocytes can lead to immunodeficiency, but also to autoimmunity or lymphomas. Many of the signalling components controlling NF-kappaB activation in lymphocytes are now known, but it is less clear how distinct molecular components of this pathway are regulated. Here, we summarize recent findings on post-translational modifications of intracellular components of this pathway. Phosphorylation of the CARMA1 and BCL10 proteins and ubiquitylation of BCL10 affect the formation and stability of the CARMA1-BCL10-MALT1 (CBM) complex, and also control negative feedback regulation of the NF-kappaB signalling pathway. Moreover, the study of BCL10 phosphorylation isoforms has revealed a new mechanism controlling BCL10 nuclear translocation and an unexpected role for BCL10 in the regulation of the actin cytoskeleton.

Notch1 functions as a tumor suppressor in mouse skin.

Notch proteins are important in binary cell-fate decisions and inhibiting differentiation in many developmental systems, and aberrant Notch signaling is associated with tumorigenesis. The role of Notch signaling in mammalian skin is less well characterized and is mainly based on in vitro studies, which suggest that Notch signaling induces differentiation in mammalian skin. Conventional gene targeting is not applicable to establishing the role of Notch receptors or ligands in the skin because Notch1-/- embryos die during gestation. Therefore, we used a tissue-specific inducible gene-targeting approach to study the physiological role of the Notch1 receptor in the mouse epidermis and the corneal epithelium of adult mice. Unexpectedly, ablation of Notch1 results in epidermal and corneal hyperplasia followed by the development of skin tumors and facilitated chemical-induced skin carcinogenesis. Notch1 deficiency in skin and in primary keratinocytes results in increased and sustained expression of Gli2, causing the development of basal-cell carcinoma-like tumors. Furthermore, Notch1 inactivation in the epidermis results in derepressed beta-catenin signaling in cells that should normally undergo differentiation. Enhanced beta-catenin signaling can be reversed by re-introduction of a dominant active form of the Notch1 receptor. This leads to a reduction in the signaling-competent pool of beta-catenin, indicating that Notch1 can inhibit beta-catenin-mediated signaling. Our results indicate that Notch1 functions as a tumor-suppressor gene in mammalian skin.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors: insight into multiple cellular functions.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors, PPARs, (NR1C) are nuclear hormone receptors implicated in energy homeostasis. Upon activation, these ligand-inducible transcription factors stimulate gene expression by binding to the promoter of target genes. The different structural domains of PPARs are presented in terms of activation mechanisms, namely ligand binding, phosphorylation, and cofactor interaction. The specificity of ligands, such as fatty acids, eicosanoids, fibrates and thiazolidinediones (TZD), is described for each of the three PPAR isotypes, alpha (NR1C1), beta (NR1C2) and gamma (NR1C3), so as the differential tissue distribution of these isotypes. Finally, general and specific functions of the PPAR isotypes are discussed, namely their implication in the control of inflammatory responses, cell proliferation and differentiation, the roles of PPARalpha in fatty acid catabolism and of PPARgamma in adipogenesis.

The contribution of aging to the understanding of the dimensionality of executive functions.

It has been reported in the literature that executive functions may be fractioned into updating, shifting, and inhibition. The present study aimed to explore whether these executive sub-components can be identified in a more age-heterogeneous sample and see if they are prone to an age-related decline. We tested the performances of 81 individuals aged from 18 to 88 years old in each executive sub-component, working memory, fluid intelligence and processing speed. Correlation analysis revealed only a slight positive relationship between the two updating measures. A linear decrement with age was observed only for two complex executive tests. Tasks indexing working memory, processing speed and fluid intelligence showed a stronger linear decline with age than executive tasks. In conclusion, our results did not replicate the executive structure known from the literature, and revealed that decrement in executive function is not an unavoidable concomitant of aging but rather concerns specific executive tasks.