4 resultados para Uncertainty and reasoning, Sets of probability measures, Bayesian networks, Multilinear programming.

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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Limited dispersal may favor the evolution of helping behaviors between relatives as it increases their relatedness, and it may inhibit such evolution as it increases local competition between these relatives. Here, we explore one way out of this dilemma: if the helping behavior allows groups to expand in size, then the kin-competition pressure opposing its evolution can be greatly reduced. We explore the effects of two kinds of stochasticity allowing for such deme expansion. First, we study the evolution of helping under environmental stochasticity that may induce complete patch extinction. Helping evolves if it results in a decrease in the probability of extinction or if it enhances the rate of patch recolonization through propagules formed by fission of nonextinct groups. This mode of dispersal is indeed commonly found in social species. Second, we consider the evolution of helping in the presence of demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is below its value maximizing deme size (undersaturation), helping evolves, but under stringent conditions unless positive density dependence (Allee effect) interferes with demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is above its value maximizing deme size (oversaturation), helping may also evolve, but only if it reduces negative density-dependent competition.

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Critically ill patients depend on artificial nutrition for the maintenance of their metabolic functions and lean body mass, as well as for limiting underfeeding-related complications. Current guidelines recommend enteral nutrition (EN), possibly within the first 48 hours, as the best way to provide the nutrients and prevent infections. EN may be difficult to realize or may be contraindicated in some patients, such as those presenting anatomic intestinal continuity problems or splanchnic ischemia. A series of contradictory trials regarding the best route and timing for feeding have left the medical community with great uncertainty regarding the place of parenteral nutrition (PN) in critically ill patients. Many of the deleterious effects attributed to PN result from inadequate indications, or from overfeeding. The latter is due firstly to the easier delivery of nutrients by PN compared with EN increasing the risk of overfeeding, and secondly to the use of approximate energy targets, generally based on predictive equations: these equations are static and inaccurate in about 70% of patients. Such high uncertainty about requirements compromises attempts at conducting nutrition trials without indirect calorimetry support because the results cannot be trusted; indeed, both underfeeding and overfeeding are equally deleterious. An individualized therapy is required. A pragmatic approach to feeding is proposed: at first to attempt EN whenever and as early as possible, then to use indirect calorimetry if available, and to monitor delivery and response to feeding, and finally to consider the option of combining EN with PN in case of insufficient EN from day 4 onwards.

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PURPOSE: There is growing evidence that interaction between stromal and tumor cells is pivotal in breast cancer progression and response to therapy. Based on earlier research suggesting that during breast cancer progression, striking changes occur in CD10(+) stromal cells, we aimed to better characterize this cell population and its clinical relevance. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We developed a CD10(+) stroma gene expression signature (using HG U133 Plus 2.0) on the basis of the comparison of CD10 cells isolated from tumoral (n = 28) and normal (n = 3) breast tissue. We further characterized the CD10(+) cells by coculture experiments of representative breast cancer cell lines with the different CD10(+) stromal cell types (fibroblasts, myoepithelial, and mesenchymal stem cells). We then evaluated its clinical relevance in terms of in situ to invasive progression, invasive breast cancer prognosis, and prediction of efficacy of chemotherapy using publicly available data sets. RESULTS: This 12-gene CD10(+) stroma signature includes, among others, genes involved in matrix remodeling (MMP11, MMP13, and COL10A1) and genes related to osteoblast differentiation (periostin). The coculture experiments showed that all 3 CD10(+) cell types contribute to the CD10(+) stroma signature, although mesenchymal stem cells have the highest CD10(+) stroma signature score. Of interest, this signature showed an important role in differentiating in situ from invasive breast cancer, in prognosis of the HER2(+) subpopulation of breast cancer only, and potentially in nonresponse to chemotherapy for those patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the importance of CD10(+) cells in breast cancer prognosis and efficacy of chemotherapy, particularly within the HER2(+) breast cancer disease.

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PRINCIPLES: Advance directives are seen as an important tool for documenting the wishes of patients who are no longer competent to make decisions in regards to their medical care. Due to their nature, approaching the subject of advance directives with a patient can be difficult for both the medical care provider and the patient. This paper focuses on general practitioners' perspectives regarding the timing at which this discussion should take place, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the different moments. METHODS: In 2013, 23 semi-structured face-to-face interviews were performed with Swiss general practitioners. Interviews were analysed using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: In our sample, 23 general practitioners provided different options that they felt were appropriate moments: either (a) when the patient is still healthy, (b) when illness becomes predominant, or (c) when a patient has been transferred to a long-term care facility. Furthermore, general practitioners reported uncertainty and discomfort regarding initiating the discussion. CONCLUSION: The distinct approaches, perspectives and rationales show that there is no well-defined or "right" moment. However, participants often associated advance directives with death. This link caused discomfort and uncertainty, which led to hesitation and delay on the part of general practitioners. Therefore we recommend further training on how to professionally initiate a conversation about advance directives. Furthermore, based on our results and experience, we recommend an early approach with healthy patients paired with later regular updates as it seems to be the most effective way to inform patients about their end-of-life care options.