Appropriateness and long-term discontinuation rate of biological therapies in ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: Anti-TNFα agents are commonly used for ulcerative colitis (UC) therapy in the event of non-response to conventional strategies or as colon-salvaging therapy. The objectives were to assess the appropriateness of biological therapies for UC patients and to study treatment discontinuation over time, according to appropriateness of treatment, as a measure of outcome. METHODS: We selected adult ulcerative colitis patients from the Swiss IBD cohort who had been treated with anti-TNFα agents. Appropriateness of the first-line anti-TNFα treatment was assessed using detailed criteria developed during the European Panel on the Appropriateness of Therapy for UC. Treatment discontinuation as an outcome was assessed for categories of appropriateness. RESULTS: Appropriateness of the first-line biological treatment was determined in 186 UC patients. For 64% of them, this treatment was considered appropriate. During follow-up, 37% of all patients discontinued biological treatment, 17% specifically because of failure. Time-to-failure of treatment was significantly different among patients on an appropriate biological treatment compared to those for whom the treatment was considered not appropriate (p=0.0007). Discontinuation rate after 2years was 26% compared to 54% between those two groups. Patients on inappropriate biological treatment were more likely to have severe disease, concomitant steroids and/or immunomodulators. They were also consistently more likely to suffer a failure of efficacy and to stop therapy during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Appropriateness of first-line anti-TNFα therapy results in a greater likelihood of continuing with the therapy. In situations where biological treatment is uncertain or inappropriate, physicians should consider other options instead of prescribing anti-TNFα agents.

Machine learning analysis and modeling of interest rate curves

The present research deals with the review of the analysis and modeling of Swiss franc interest rate curves (IRC) by using unsupervised (SOM, Gaussian Mixtures) and supervised machine (MLP) learning algorithms. IRC are considered as objects embedded into different feature spaces: maturities; maturity-date, parameters of Nelson-Siegel model (NSM). Analysis of NSM parameters and their temporal and clustering structures helps to understand the relevance of model and its potential use for the forecasting. Mapping of IRC in a maturity-date feature space is presented and analyzed for the visualization and forecasting purposes.

Interest rates mapping

The present study deals with the analysis and mapping of Swiss franc interest rates. Interest rates depend on time and maturity, defining term structure of the interest rate curves (IRC). In the present study IRC are considered in a two-dimensional feature space - time and maturity. Exploratory data analysis includes a variety of tools widely used in econophysics and geostatistics. Geostatistical models and machine learning algorithms (multilayer perceptron and Support Vector Machines) were applied to produce interest rate maps. IR maps can be used for the visualisation and pattern perception purposes, to develop and to explore economical hypotheses, to produce dynamic asset-liability simulations and for financial risk assessments. The feasibility of an application of interest rates mapping approach for the IRC forecasting is considered as well. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Perineal stapled prolapse resection for external rectal prolapse: is it worthwhile in the long-term?

BACKGROUND: Perineal stapled prolapse (PSP) resection is a novel operation for treating external rectal prolapse. However, no long-term results have been reported in the literature. This study analyses the long-term recurrence rate, functional outcome, and morbidity associated with PSP resection. METHODS: Nine consecutive patients undergoing PSP resection between 2007 and 2011 were prospectively followed. Surgery was performed by the same surgeons in a standardised technique. Recurrence rate, functional outcome, and complication grade were prospectively assessed. RESULTS: All 9 patients undergoing PSP resection were investigated. The median age was 72 years (range 25-88 years). No intraoperative complications occurred. Faecal incontinence, preoperatively present in 2 patients, worsened postoperatively in one patient (Vaizey 18-22). One patient developed new-onset faecal incontinence (Vaizey 18). The median obstructive defecation syndrome score decreased postoperatively significantly from 11 (median; range 8-13) to 5 (median; range 4-8) (p < 0.005). At a median follow-up of 40 months (range 14-58 months), the prolapse recurrence rate was 44 % (4/9 patients). CONCLUSIONS: The PSP resection is a fast and safe procedure associated with low morbidity. However, the poor long-term functional outcome and the recurrence rate of 44 % warrant a cautious patient selection.

Long-Term Safety of Canakinumab in Patients with Gouty Arthritis.

Background/Purpose: Gouty arthritis (GA) is a chronic inflammatory disease. Targeting the inflammatory pathway through IL-1_ inhibition with canakinumab (CAN) may provide significant long-term benefits. CAN safety versus triamcinolone acetonide (TA) over initial 24 weeks (blinded study) for patients (pts) with history of frequent attacks (_3 in year before baseline) was reported earlier from core (_-RELIEVED [_-REL] and _-REL-II) and first extension (E1) studies1. Herein we present full 18-month long-term CAN safety data, including open-label second extension (E2) studies. Methods: GA pts completing _-REL E1 and _-REL-II E1 studies1 were enrolled in these 1-year, open-label, E2 studies. All pts entering E2, whether randomized to CAN or TA, received CAN 150 mg sc on demand upon new attack. Data are presented only for pts randomized to CAN, and are reported cumulatively, i.e. including corresponding data from previously reported core and E1 studies. Long-term safety outcomes and safety upon re-treatment are presented as incidence rate per 100 patient-years (pyr) of study participation for AEs and SAEs. Deaths are reported for all pts (randomized to CAN or TA). Selected predefined notable laboratory abnormalities are shown (neutrophils, platelets, liver and renal function tests). Long-term attack rate per year is also provided. Results: In total, 69/115 (60%) and 72/112 (64.3%) of the pts randomized to CAN in the two core studies entered the two E2 studies, of which 68 and 64 pts, respectively completed the E2 studies. The 2 study populations had differing baseline comorbidity and geographic origin. Lab data (not time adjusted) for neutropenia appears worse after retreatment in _-REL E2, and deterioration of creatinine clearance appears worse after retreatment (Table 1). The time-adjusted incidence rates for AEs were 302.4/100 pyr and 360/100 pyr, and for SAEs were 27.9/100 pyr and 13.9/100 pyr in _-REL E2 and _-REL-II E2 respectively (Table 1). The time-adjusted incidence rates of any AEs, infection AEs, any SAEs, and selected SAEs before and after re-treatment are presented in Table 1. Incidence rates for AEs and SAEs declined after re-treatment, with the exception of SAEs in _-REL-II E2, which increased from 2.9/100 pyr to 10.9/100 pyr (no infection SAEs after retreatment in _-REL-II E2, and other SAEs fit no special pattern). In the total safety population (N_454, core and all extensions), there were 4 deaths, 2 in the core studies previously reported1 and 2 during the _-REL E2 study (one patient in the CAN group died from pneumonia; one patient in the TA group who never received CAN died of pneumococcal sepsis). None of the deaths was suspected by investigators to be study drug related. The mean rates of new attacks per year on CAN were 1.21 and 1.18 in _-REL E2 and in _-REL-II E2. Conclusion: The clinical safety profile of CAN upon re-treatment was maintained long-term with no new infection concerns

New insights into the phylogenetics and biogeography of Arum (Araceae): unravelling its evolutionary history

The heat- and odour-producing genus Arum (Araceae) has interested scientists for centuries. This long-term interest has allowed a deep knowledge of some complex processes, such as the physiology and dynamics of its characteristic lure-and-trap pollination system, to be built up. However, mainly because of its large distributional range and high degree of morphological variation, species' limits and relationships are still under discussion. Today, the genus comprises 28 species subdivided into two subgenera, two sections and six subsections. In this study, the phylogeny of the genus is inferred on the basis of four plastid regions, and the evolution of several morphological characters is investigated. Our phylogenetic hypothesis is not in agreement with the current infrageneric classification of the genus and challenges the monophyly of several species. This demonstrates the need for a new infrageneric classification based on characters reflecting the evolution of this enigmatic genus. To investigate the biogeography of Arum deeply, further spatiotemporal analyses were performed, addressing the importance of the Mediterranean basin in the diversification of Arum. Our results suggest that its centre of origin was the European-Aegean region, and that major diversification happened during the last 10 Myr.

Traitement des epilepsies réfractaires: rôle de la stimulation electrique [Treatment of pharmacoresistant epilepsy: stimulated refractoriness].

Antiepileptic drugs allow controlling seizures in 70% of patients. For the others, a presurgical work-up should be undertaken, especially if a focal seizure origin is suspected; however, only a fraction of pharmacoresistant patients will be offered resective (curative) surgery. In the last 15 years, several palliative therapies using extra- or intracranial electrical stimulations have been developed. This article presents the vagal nerve stimulation, the deep brain stimulation (targeting the mesiotemporal region or the thalamus), and the cortical stimulation "on demand". All show an overall long-term responder rate between 30-50%, but less than 5% of patients becoming seizure free. It is to hope that a better understanding of epileptogenic mechanisms and of the implicated neuronal networks will lead to an improvement of these proportions.

Le prêt à intérêt dans l'Antiquité préchrétienne : Jérusalem, Athènes, Rome : étude juridique, philosophique et historiographique

Le prêt à intérêt était pratiqué par tous les peuples de l'Antiquité préchrétienne, à l'exception du peuple d'Israël. L'auteur examine d'abord l'interdiction du prêt à intérêt dans l'Ancien Testament. Il expose ensuite la pratique du prêt à intérêt en Grèce, avant de détailler les critiques d'Aristote. Enfin, l'auteur retrace l'évolution du prêt (mutuum) et de la réglementation de l'intérêt à Rome, des origines à Constantin. Il met l'accent sur trois grandes controverses parmi les romanistes modernes (XVIe - XXIe s.) : sur le nexum, sur la centesima et, surtout, sur le mystérieux fenus unciarium, le taux d'intérêt fixé par les Douze Tables, pour lequel l'éventail des interprétations va de 1 à 100 % par an ! L'auteur recense les opinions de plus de 400 juristes et historiens, discute les plus importantes et propose sa conclusion. The loan at interest was used by all the peoples of pre-Christian Antiquity, excepting the people of Israel. The author first focuses on the prohibition of lending at interest in the Old Testament. He then explores the use of loans at interest in Greece before examining Aristotle's criticism. Eventually, the author follows the evolution of loan (mutuum) and interest regulation in Rome, from the origins to Constantine. Three great controversies among modern Roman law scholars (16th - 21th) are considered: nexum, centesima and above all, the mysterious fenus unciarium, the interest rate defined by the Twelve Tables, for which the range of interpretations varies between 1 and 100% per year! The author gives an inventory of more than 400 opinions expressed by jurists and historians, discusses the most important ones and suggests a solution.

Ten years follow-up after deep sclerectomy with collagen implant.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the long-term success rate and complications of nonpenetrating deep sclerectomy with collagen implant in open-angle glaucoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Clinical, prospective, monocentric, nonrandomized, unmasked study on 105 patients with medically uncontrolled glaucoma. A standard procedure deep sclerectomy with collagen implant was performed. Complete examinations were performed before surgery and postoperatively at 1 and 7 days; 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months and then every 6 months during the 10 following years. RESULTS: The mean follow-up was 101.5+/-43.1 (3 to 144) months [mean+/-SD, (range)]. The preoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) was 26.8+/-7.7 (14 to 52) mm Hg and the best-corrected visual acuity 0.71+/-0.33 (0.02 to 1.5). Ten years after surgery IOP was 12.2+/-4.7 (6 to 20) mm Hg and best-corrected visual acuity 0.63+/-0.34 (0.01 to 1.2) (number of remaining patients=52). The mean number of medications per patient went from 2.3+/-0.7 (1 to 4) down to 1.3+/-1.1 (0 to 3). An IOP <or=21 mm Hg without medication was achieved in 47.7% patients and in 89% with or without treatment. One major complication was reported. Goniopuncture was performed in 61 eyes (59.8%), 5-fluorouracil treatment given to 25 patients postoperatively and included needling (n=5). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of a 10-year follow-up deep sclerectomy with collagen implant demonstrated its efficacy in controlling IOP with few postoperative complications.

Survival after surgical drainage of malignant pericardial effusion.

OBJECTIVES: Management of malignant pericardial effusion (PE) is complex. Cardiac surgeons are not necessarily familiar with or are challenged by the many underlying etiologies. Analyzing risk factors for mortality may help to estimate the benefit of surgery in high-risk patients. METHODS: Patients undergoing a surgical pericardiotomy for malignant PE, between 2001 and 2011, were included. The influence of tumor type, disease extension, intra-pericardial tumor infiltration on early mortality and long-term survival as well as freedom from symptoms after drainage, and the use of sclerosing agents on PE recurrence rates was analyzed. RESULTS: PE drainage was performed on 46 patients 12 ± 30 months after tumor diagnosis. Malignant diseases were lung cancers (50 %), breast cancers (15 %), lymphoma and leukemia (13 %), cancers of the digestive tract (13 %), and others (9 %). 80 % of patients were symptomatic and symptom relief was achieved in 65 %. Nobody died during surgery. Recurrence rate was 4 %. Early in-hospital mortality was 22 %. After 1 year, 29 % of patients were alive. Eleven patients (24 %) had a complete tumor regression. Metastatic spread (p < 0.001), pericardial infiltration (p = 0.02), and intra-pericardial Bleomycin (p = 0.01) injection were associated with increased mortality. Hematological malignancies had a better prognosis for survival. CONCLUSION: Surgical pericardiotomy is safe, associated with a low recurrence rate and symptom relief in the majority of dyspneic patients. Intra-pericardial Bleomycin may reduce recurrent effusion but does not ameliorate survival. Long-term survival rate was low with an increased mortality in cases of metastatic spreading, pericardial infiltration, and as the tumor of origin: breast cancers. Leukemic and lymphatic tumors have better prognosis.

Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal ?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze a semi-open economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector has not. This enables the central bank to choose an interest rate different from the international rate. We examine the optimal policy of the central bank by modelling it as a Ramsey planner who can choose the level of domestic public debt and of international reserves. The central bank can improve savings opportunities of credit-constrained consumers modelled as in Woodford (1990). We find that in a steady state it is optimal for the central bank to replicate the open economy, i.e., to issue debt financed by the accumulation of reserves so that the domestic interest rate equals the foreign rate. When the economy is in transition, however, a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility and the optimal interest rate differs from the international rate. We argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate. We also find that capital controls can still help reach the first best when the planner has more fiscal instruments.

Safety Traps

Fear of risk provides a rationale for protracted economic downturns. We develop a real business cycle model where investors with decreasing relative risk aversion choose between a risky and a safe technology that exhibit decreasing returns. Because of a feedback effect from the interest rate to risk aversion, two equilibria can emerge: a standard equilibrium and a "safe" one in which investors invest in safer assets. We refer to the dynamics of this second equilibrium as a safety trap because it is self-reinforcing as investors accumulate more wealth and show it to be consistent with Japan's lost decade.

What Transaction Costs are Acceptable in Life Insurance Products from the Policyholders' Viewpoint?

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze what transaction costs are acceptable for customers in different investments. In this study, two life insurance contracts, a mutual fund and a risk-free investment, as alternative investment forms are considered. The first two products under scrutiny are a life insurance investment with a point-to-point capital guarantee and a participating contract with an annual interest rate guarantee and participation in the insurer's surplus. The policyholder assesses the various investment opportunities using different utility measures. For selected types of risk profiles, the utility position and the investor's preference for the various investments are assessed. Based on this analysis, the authors study which cost levels can make all of the products equally rewarding for the investor. Design/methodology/approach - The paper notes the risk-neutral valuation calibration using empirical data utility and performance measurement dynamics underlying: geometric Brownian motion numerical examples via Monte Carlo simulation. Findings - In the first step, the financial performance of the various saving opportunities under different assumptions of the investor's utility measurement is studied. In the second step, the authors calculate the level of transaction costs that are allowed in the various products to make all of the investment opportunities equally rewarding from the investor's point of view. A comparison of these results with transaction costs that are common in the market shows that insurance companies must be careful with respect to the level of transaction costs that they pass on to their customers to provide attractive payoff distributions. Originality/value - To the best of the authors' knowledge, their research question - i.e. which transaction costs for life insurance products would be acceptable from the customer's point of view - has not been studied in the above described context so far.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Deficit in memory consolidation (abnormal forgetting rate) in childhood temporal lobe epilepsy. Pre and postoperative long-term observation.

Deficits in memory consolidation have been reported in adult patients with epilepsy but, not to our knowledge, in children. We report the long-term follow-up (9 y. o. to 18 y. o.) of a boy who suffered from temporal lobe epilepsy and underwent a left temporal lobectomy with amygdalo-hippocampal resection at the age of 10. He showed an abnormal forgetting rate when trying to encode new information and a significant deficit for retrieving remote episodic memories (when compared with his twin brother), both consistent with a consolidation disorder. His memory condition slightly improved after cessation of the epilepsy, nevertheless did not normalize. No standard memory assessment could pinpoint his memory problem, hence an adapted methodology was needed. We discuss the nature of the memory deficit, its possible causes and its clinical implications.