Using a Bayesian method to assign individuals to karyotypic taxa in shrew hybrid zones.

Individuals sampled in hybrid zones are usually analysed according to their sampling locality, morphology, behaviour or karyotype. But the increasing availability of genetic information more and more favours its use for individual sorting purposes and numerous assignment methods based on the genetic composition of individuals have been developed. The shrews of the Sorex araneus group offer good opportunities to test the genetic assignment on individuals identified by their karyotype. Here we explored the potential and efficiency of a Bayesian assignment method combined or not with a reference dataset to study admixture and individual assignment in the difficult context of two hybrid zones between karyotypic species of the Sorex araneus group. As a whole, we assigned more than 80% of the individuals to their respective karyotypic categories (i.e. 'pure' species or hybrids). This assignment level is comparable to what was obtained for the same species away from hybrid zones. Additionally, we showed that the assignment result for several individuals was strongly affected by the inclusion or not of a reference dataset. This highlights the importance of such comparisons when analysing hybrid zones. Finally, differences between the admixture levels detected in both hybrid zones support the hypothesis of an impact of chromosomal rearrangements on gene flow.

Cytogenetic and molecular relationships between Zarudny's rock shrew (Crocidura zarudnyi; Mammalia : Soricomorpha) and Eurasian taxa

We karyotyped and sequenced 1,140 base pairs of the mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b of a specimen of Zarudny's rock shrew (Crocidura zarudnyi) from Baluchestan, southeastern Iran, to clarify its cytogenetic and molecular relationships with other Eurasian species of Crocidura. According to the karyotype (2N = 40, FN = 50), Zarudny's rock shrew belongs to the group of the lesser white-toothed shrew (C. suaveolens), which is different from other known crocidurine karyotypes, considering the combination of the diploid and fundamental number of chromosomes. Molecular results revealed that C. zarudnyi is included in a monophyletic clade with the C. suaveolens group, where it is a sister taxon to the others (mean Kimura 2-parameter distance = 9.7%).

Exotic taxa less related to native species are more invasive.

Some species introduced into new geographical areas from their native ranges wreak ecological and economic havoc in their new environment. Although many studies have searched for either species or habitat characteristics that predict invasiveness of exotic species, the match between characteristics of the invader and those of members of the existing native community may be essential to understanding invasiveness. Here, we find that one metric, the phylogenetic relatedness of an invader to the native community, provides a predictive tool for invasiveness. Using a phylogenetic supertree of all grass species in California, we show that highly invasive grass species are, on average, significantly less related to native grasses than are introduced but noninvasive grasses. The match between the invader and the existing native community may explain why exotic pest species are not uniformly noxious in all novel habitats. Relatedness of invaders to the native biota may be one useful criterion for prioritizing management efforts of exotic species.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Impacts of climate change on Swiss biodiversity: An indicator taxa approach

We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of 'greenhouse' gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.