Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Synthesis of medium-chain-length polyhydroxyalkanoates in arabidopsis thaliana using intermediates of peroxisomal fatty acid beta-oxidation.

Polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) is a family of polymers composed primarily of R-3-hydroxyalkanoic acids. These polymers have properties of biodegradable thermoplastics and elastomers. Medium-chain-length PHAs (MCL-PHAs) are synthesized in bacteria by using intermediates of the beta-oxidation of alkanoic acids. To assess the feasibility of producing MCL-PHAs in plants, Arabidopsis thaliana was transformed with the PhaC1 synthase from Pseudomonas aeruginosa modified for peroxisome targeting by addition of the carboxyl 34 amino acids from the Brassica napus isocitrate lyase. Immunocytochemistry demonstrated that the modified PHA synthase was appropriately targeted to leaf-type peroxisomes in light-grown plants and glyoxysomes in dark-grown plants. Plants expressing the PHA synthase accumulated electron-lucent inclusions in the glyoxysomes and leaf-type peroxisomes, as well as in the vacuole. These inclusions were similar to bacterial PHA inclusions. Analysis of plant extracts by GC and mass spectrometry demonstrated the presence of MCL-PHA in transgenic plants to approximately 4 mg per g of dry weight. The plant PHA contained saturated and unsaturated 3-hydroxyalkanoic acids ranging from six to 16 carbons with 41% of the monomers being 3-hydroxyoctanoic acid and 3-hydroxyoctenoic acid. These results indicate that the beta-oxidation of plant fatty acids can generate a broad range of R-3-hydroxyacyl-CoA intermediates that can be used to synthesize MCL-PHAs.

NAVA enhances tidal volume and diaphragmatic electro-myographic activity matching: a Range90 analysis of supply and demand.

Neurally adjusted ventilatory assist (NAVA) is a ventilation assist mode that delivers pressure in proportionality to electrical activity of the diaphragm (Eadi). Compared to pressure support ventilation (PS), it improves patient-ventilator synchrony and should allow a better expression of patient's intrinsic respiratory variability. We hypothesize that NAVA provides better matching in ventilator tidal volume (Vt) to patients inspiratory demand. 22 patients with acute respiratory failure, ventilated with PS were included in the study. A comparative study was carried out between PS and NAVA, with NAVA gain ensuring the same peak airway pressure as PS. Robust coefficients of variation (CVR) for Eadi and Vt were compared for each mode. The integral of Eadi (ʃEadi) was used to represent patient's inspiratory demand. To evaluate tidal volume and patient's demand matching, Range90 = 5-95 % range of the Vt/ʃEadi ratio was calculated, to normalize and compare differences in demand within and between patients and modes. In this study, peak Eadi and ʃEadi are correlated with median correlation of coefficients, R > 0.95. Median ʃEadi, Vt, neural inspiratory time (Ti_ ( Neural )), inspiratory time (Ti) and peak inspiratory pressure (PIP) were similar in PS and NAVA. However, it was found that individual patients have higher or smaller ʃEadi, Vt, Ti_ ( Neural ), Ti and PIP. CVR analysis showed greater Vt variability for NAVA (p < 0.005). Range90 was lower for NAVA than PS for 21 of 22 patients. NAVA provided better matching of Vt to ʃEadi for 21 of 22 patients, and provided greater variability Vt. These results were achieved regardless of differences in ventilatory demand (Eadi) between patients and modes.

Treatment of advanced soft-tissue sarcomas using a combined strategy of high-dose ifosfamide, high-dose doxorubicin and salvage therapies.

Having determined in a phase I study the maximum tolerated dose of high-dose ifosfamide combined with high-dose doxorubicin, we now report the long-term results of a phase II trial in advanced soft-tissue sarcomas. Forty-six patients with locally advanced or metastatic soft-tissue sarcomas were included, with age <60 years and all except one in good performance status (0 or 1). The chemotherapy treatment consisted of ifosfamide 10 g m(-2) (continuous infusion for 5 days), doxorubicin 30 mg m(-2) day(-1) x 3 (total dose 90 mg m(-2)), mesna and granulocyte-colony stimulating factor. Cycles were repeated every 21 days. A median of 4 (1-6) cycles per patient was administered. Twenty-two patients responded to therapy, including three complete responders and 19 partial responders for an overall response rate of 48% (95% CI: 33-63%). The response rate was not different between localised and metastatic diseases or between histological types, but was higher in grade 3 tumours. Median overall survival was 19 months. Salvage therapies (surgery and/or radiotherapy) were performed in 43% of patients and found to be the most significant predictor for favourable survival (exploratory multivariate analysis). Haematological toxicity was severe, including grade > or =3 neutropenia in 59%, thrombopenia in 39% and anaemia in 27% of cycles. Three patients experienced grade 3 neurotoxicity and one patient died of septic shock. This high-dose regimen is toxic but nonetheless feasible in multicentre settings in non elderly patients with good performance status. A high response rate was obtained. Prolonged survival was mainly a function of salvage therapies.

Targeting mitochondria in the infection strategy of the hepatitis C virus.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection induces a state of oxidative stress more pronounced than that observed in many other inflammatory diseases. Here, we propose a temporal sequence of events in the HCV-infected cell whereby the primary alteration consists of a release of Ca(2+) from the endoplasmic reticulum, followed by uptake into mitochondria. This ensues successive mitochondrial dysfunction leading to the generation of reactive oxygen species and a progressive metabolic adaptive response. Evidence is provided for a positive feed-back mechanism between alterations of calcium and redox homeostasis. This likely involves deregulation of the mitochondrial permeability transition and induces progressive dysfunction of cellular bioenergetics. Pathogenetic implications of the model and new opportunities for therapeutic intervention are discussed. This article is part of a Directed Issue entitled: Bioenergetic dysfunction, adaptation and therapy.

From the vendor in the hemp shop to the dealer in the alleyway? A comparison of the sources of supply of cannabis in a time of 'de-normalising' cannabis use.

Objectives: After several years of increasing 'normalisation' of cannabis use in Switzerland at the beginning of the new millennium, a reversed tendency, marked among others by a more stringent law-enforcement, set in. The presentation examines the question of where adolescents and young adults obtained cannabis, within the context of this societal change. In addition, it compares the sources of supply for cannabis with those found in studies of other European countries. Methods: Analyses are based on data from the Swiss Cannabis Monitoring Study. As part of this longitudinal, representative population survey, more than 5000 adolescents and young adults were interviewed by telephone on the topic of cannabis. Within the total sample, 593 (2004) or 554 (2007) respectively, current cannabis users replied to the questions on sources of supply. Changes in law-enforcement and societal climate concerning cannabis are assessed based on relevant literature, media reports and parliamentary discussions. Results: Whereas 22% of cannabis users stated in 2004 that they bought their cannabis from vendors in hemp shops, this proportion drastically decreased to 6% three years later. At the same time, cannabis was obtained increasingly from friends, while the proportion of users who purchased cannabis from dealers in the alleyway, more than doubled from 6% (2004) to 13% (2007). It was male cannabis users, and in particular, young adult and frequent users, who have moved into the alleyways. Generally, users who buy cannabis in the alleyway show more cannabis-related problems than those who mainly name other sources of supply, even when adjusted for sex, age and frequency of cannabis use. Discussion: Possible consequences of these changes in cannabis supply, like the risk of merging a previously cannabis-only market with other 'harder' drugs markets, are discussed.

The Peroxisomal Enzyme L-PBE Is Required to Prevent the Dietary Toxicity of Medium-Chain Fatty Acids.

Specific metabolic pathways are activated by different nutrients to adapt the organism to available resources. Although essential, these mechanisms are incompletely defined. Here, we report that medium-chain fatty acids contained in coconut oil, a major source of dietary fat, induce the liver ω-oxidation genes Cyp4a10 and Cyp4a14 to increase the production of dicarboxylic fatty acids. Furthermore, these activate all ω- and β-oxidation pathways through peroxisome proliferator activated receptor (PPAR) α and PPARγ, an activation loop normally kept under control by dicarboxylic fatty acid degradation by the peroxisomal enzyme L-PBE. Indeed, L-pbe(-/-) mice fed coconut oil overaccumulate dicarboxylic fatty acids, which activate all fatty acid oxidation pathways and lead to liver inflammation, fibrosis, and death. Thus, the correct homeostasis of dicarboxylic fatty acids is a means to regulate the efficient utilization of ingested medium-chain fatty acids, and its deregulation exemplifies the intricate relationship between impaired metabolism and inflammation.

Accès aux soins d'urgence: organisation et utilité de la chaîne des secours [Access to prehospital medical care: organization and utility of the chain of survival].

In order to be effective, access to prehospital care must be integrated into a system described as "the chain of survival". This system is composed of 5 essential phases: 1) basic help by witnesses; 2) call for help; 3) basic life support; 4) professional rescue and transport to the appropriate institution and 5) access to emergency ward and hospital management. Each phase is characterized by a specific organization, dedicated skills and means in order to increase the level of care brought to the patient. This article describes the organization, the utility and the specificity of the chain of survival allowing access to prehospital medical care in the western part of Switzerland.

Repercussion of a deficiency in mitochondrial ß-oxidation on the carbon flux of short-chain fatty acids to the peroxisomal ß-oxidation cycle in Aspergillus nidulans.

The fungus Aspergillus nidulans contains both a mitochondrial and peroxisomal ß-oxidation pathway. This work was aimed at studying the influence of mutations in the foxA gene, encoding a peroxisomal multifunctional protein, or in the scdA/echA genes, encoding a mitochondrial short-chain dehydrogenase and an enoyl-CoA hydratase, respectively, on the carbon flux to the peroxisomal ß-oxidation pathway. A. nidulans transformed with a peroxisomal polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) synthase produced PHA from the polymerization of 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA intermediates derived from the peroxisomal ß-oxidation of external fatty acids. PHA produced from erucic acid or heptadecanoic acid contained a broad spectrum of monomers, ranging from 5 to 14 carbons, revealing that the peroxisomal ß-oxidation cycle can handle both long and short-chain intermediates. While the ∆foxA mutant grown on erucic acid or oleic acid synthesized 10-fold less PHA compared to wild type, the same mutant grown on octanoic acid or heptanoic acid produced 3- to 6-fold more PHA. Thus, while FoxA has an important contribution to the degradation of long-chain fatty acids, the flux of short-chain fatty acids to peroxisomal ß-oxidation is actually enhanced in its absence. While no change in PHA was observed in the ∆scdA∆echA mutant grown on erucic acid or oleic acid compared to wild type, there was a 2- to 4-fold increased synthesis of PHA in ∆scdA∆echA cells grown in octanoic acid or heptanoic acid. These results reveal that a compensatory mechanism exists in A. nidulans that increases the flux of short-chain fatty acids towards the peroxisomal ß-oxidation cycle when the mitochondrial ß-oxidation pathway is defective.

Increasing the carbon flux toward synthesis of short-chain-length--medium-chain-length polyhydroxyalkanoate in the peroxisome of Saccharomyces cerevisiae through modification of the beta-oxidation cycle.

Short-chain-length-medium-chain-length polyhydroxyalkanoates were synthesized in Saccharomyces cerevisiae from intermediates of the beta-oxidation cycle by expressing the polyhydroxyalkanoate synthases from Aeromonas caviae and Ralstonia eutropha in the peroxisomes. The quantity of polymer produced was increased by using a mutant of the beta-oxidation-associated multifunctional enzyme with low dehydrogenase activity toward R-3-hydroxybutyryl coenzyme A.

Synthesis and anticancer activity of long-chain isonicotinic ester ligand-containing arene ruthenium complexes and nanoparticles

Arene ruthenium complexes containing long-chain N-ligands L1 = NC5H4-4-COO-C6H4-4-O-(CH2)9-CH3 or L2 = NC5H4-4-COO-(CH2)10-O-C6H4-4-COO-C6H4-4-C6H4-4-CN derived from isonicotinic acid, of the type [(arene)Ru(L)Cl2] (arene = C6H6, L = L1: 1; arene = p-MeC6H4Pr i , L = L1: 2; arene = C6Me6, L = L1: 3; arene = C6H6, L = L2: 4; arene = p-MeC6H4Pr i , L = L2: 5; arene = C6Me6, L = L2: 6) have been synthesized from the corresponding [(arene)RuCl2]2 precursor with the long-chain N-ligand L in dichloromethane. Ruthenium nanoparticles stabilized by L1 have been prepared by the solvent-free reduction of 1 with hydrogen or by reducing [(arene)Ru(H2O)3]SO4 in ethanol in the presence of L1 with hydrogen. These complexes and nanoparticles show a high anticancer activity towards human ovarian cell lines, the highest cytotoxicity being obtained for complex 2 (IC50 = 2 μM for A2780 and 7 μM for A2780cisR)

Development of bioreporter assays for the detection of bioavailability of long-chain alkanes based on the marine bacterium Alcanivorax borkumensis strain SK2.

Long-chain alkanes are a major component of crude oil and therefore potentially good indicators of hydrocarbon spills. Here we present a set of new bacterial bioreporters and assays that allow to detect long-chain alkanes. These reporters are based on the regulatory protein AlkS and the alkB1 promoter from Alcanivorax borkumensis SK2, a widespread alkane degrader in marine habitats. Escherichia coli cells with the reporter construct reacted strongly to octane in short-term (6 h) aqueous suspension assays but very slightly only to tetradecane, in line with what is expected from its low water solubility. In contrast, long-term assays (up to 5 days) with A. borkumensis bioreporters showed strong induction with tetradecane and crude oil. Gel-immobilized A. borkumensis reporter cells were used to demonstrate tetradecane and crude oil bioavailability at a distance from a source. Alcanivorax borkumensis bioreporters induced fivefold more rapid and more strongly when allowed physical contact with the oil phase in standing flask assays, suggesting a major contribution of adhered cells to the overall reporter signal. Using the flask assays we further demonstrated the effect of oleophilic nutrients and biosurfactants on oil availability and degradation by A. borkumensis. The fluorescence signal from flask assays could easily be captured with a normal digital camera, making such tests feasible to be carried out on, e.g. marine oil responder vessels in case of oil accidents.