Statistical methods for river runoff prediction

Methods used to analyze one type of nonstationary stochastic processes?the periodically correlated process?are considered. Two methods of one-step-forward prediction of periodically correlated time series are examined. One-step-forward predictions made in accordance with an autoregression model and a model of an artificial neural network with one latent neuron layer and with an adaptation mechanism of network parameters in a moving time window were compared in terms of efficiency. The comparison showed that, in the case of prediction for one time step for time series of mean monthly water discharge, the simpler autoregression model is more efficient.

Impacts of upland open drains upon runoff generation: a numerical assessment of catchment-scale impacts

Shallow upland drains, grips, have been hypothesized as responsible for increased downstream flow magnitudes. Observations provide counterfactual evidence, often relating to the difficulty of inferring conclusions from statistical correlation and paired catchment comparisons, and the complexity of designing field experiments to test grip impacts at the catchment scale. Drainage should provide drier antecedent moisture conditions, providing more storage at the start of an event; however, grips have higher flow velocities than overland flow, thus potentially delivering flow more rapidly to the drainage network. We develop and apply a model for assessing the impacts of grips on flow hydrographs. The model was calibrated on the gripped case, and then the gripped case was compared with the intact case by removing all grips. This comparison showed that even given parameter uncertainty, the intact case had significantly higher flood peaks and lower baseflows, mirroring field observations of the hydrological response of intact peat. The simulations suggest that this is because delivery effects may not translate into catchment-scale impacts for three reasons. First, in our case, the proportions of flow path lengths that were hillslope were not changed significantly by gripping. Second, the structure of the grip network as compared with the structure of the drainage basin mitigated against grip-related increases in the concentration of runoff in the drainage network, although it did marginally reduce the mean timing of that concentration at the catchment outlet. Third, the effect of the latter upon downstream flow magnitudes can only be assessed by reference to the peak timing of other tributary basins, emphasizing that drain effects are both relative and scale dependent. However, given the importance of hillslope flow paths, we show that if upland drainage causes significant changes in surface roughness on hillslopes, then critical and important feedbacks may impact upon the speed of hydrological response. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Validation of and comparison between a semidistributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (PREVAH) and a spatially distributed snow-evolution model (SnowModel) for snow cover prediction in mountain ecosystems

Snow cover is an important control in mountain environments and a shift of the snow-free period triggered by climate warming can strongly impact ecosystem dynamics. Changing snow patterns can have severe effects on alpine plant distribution and diversity. It thus becomes urgent to provide spatially explicit assessments of snow cover changes that can be incorporated into correlative or empirical species distribution models (SDMs). Here, we provide for the first time a with a lower overestimation comparison of two physically based snow distribution models (PREVAH and SnowModel) to produce snow cover maps (SCMs) at a fine spatial resolution in a mountain landscape in Austria. SCMs have been evaluated with SPOT-HRVIR images and predictions of snow water equivalent from the two models with ground measurements. Finally, SCMs of the two models have been compared under a climate warming scenario for the end of the century. The predictive performances of PREVAH and SnowModel were similar when validated with the SPOT images. However, the tendency to overestimate snow cover was slightly lower with SnowModel during the accumulation period, whereas it was lower with PREVAH during the melting period. The rate of true positives during the melting period was two times higher on average with SnowModel with a lower overestimation of snow water equivalent. Our results allow for recommending the use of SnowModel in SDMs because it better captures persisting snow patches at the end of the snow season, which is important when modelling the response of species to long-lasting snow cover and evaluating whether they might survive under climate change.

Sedimentology, geochemistry and mineralogy of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) : sediment records from Egypt, India and Spain

A gradual increase in Earth's surface temperatures marking the transition from the late Paleocene to early Eocene (55.8±0.2Ma), represents an extraordinary warming event known as Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Both marine and continental sedimentary records during this period reveal evidences for the massive injection of isotopically light carbon. The carbon dioxide injection from multiple potential sources may have triggered the global warming. The importance of the PETM studies is due to the fact that the PETM bears some striking resemblances to the human-caused climate change unfolding today. Most notably, the culprit behind it was a massive injection of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and oceans, comparable in volume to what our persistent burning of fossil fuels could deliver in coming centuries. The exact knowledge of what went on during the PETM could help us to foresee the future climate change. The response of the oceanic and continental environments to the PETM is different. Many factors might control the response of the environments to the PETM such as paleogeography, paleotopography, paleoenvironment, and paleodepth. To better understand the mechanisms triggering PETM events, two different environments were studied: 1) shallow marine to inner shelf environment (Wadi Nukhul, Sinai; and the Dababiya GSSP, Luxor, Egypt), and 2) terrestrial environments (northwestern India lignite mines) representing wetland, and fluvial environments (Esplugafreda, Spain) both highlighting the climatic changes observed in continental conditions. In the marine realm, the PETM is characterized by negative ö13Ccar and ô13Corg excursions and shifts in Ô15N to ~0%o values above the P/E boundary and persisting along the interval suggesting a bloom and high production of atmospheric N2-fixers. Decrease in carbonate contents could be due to dissolution and/or dilution by increasing detrital input. High Ti, K and Zr and decreased Si contents at the P/E boundary indicate high weathering index (CIA), which coincides with significant kaolinite input and suggests intense chemical weathering under humid conditions at the beginning of the PETM. Two anoxic intervals are observed along the PETM. The lower one may be linked to methane released from the continental shelf with no change in the redox proxies, where the upper anoxic to euxinic conditions are revealed by increasing U, Mo, V, Fe and the presence of small size pyrite framboids (2-5fim). Productivity sensitive elements (Cu, Ni, and Cd) show their maximum concentrated within the upper anoxic interval suggesting high productivity in surface water. The obtained data highlight that intense weathering and subsequent nutrient inputs are crucial parameters in the chain of the PETM events, triggering productivity during the recovery phase. In the terrestrial environments, the establishment of wetland conditions and consequence continental climatic shift towards more humid conditions led to migration of modern mammals northward following the extension of the tropical belts. Relative ages of this mammal event based on bio-chemo- and paleomagnetic stratigraphy support a migration path originating from Asia into Europe and North America, followed by later migration from Asia into India and suggests a barrier to migration that is likely linked to the timing of the India-Asia collision. In contrast, at Esplugafereda, northeastern Spain, the terrestrial environment reacted differently. Two significant S13C shifts with the lower one linked to the PETM and the upper corresponding to the Early Eocene Thermal Maximum (ETM2); 180/160 paleothermometry performed on two different soil carbonate nodule reveal a temperature increase of around 8°C during the PETM. The prominent increase in kaolinite content within the PETM is linked to increased runoff and/or weathering of adjacent and coeval soils. These results demonstrate that the PETM coincides globally with extreme climatic fluctuations and that terrestrial environments are very likely to record such climatic changes. - La transition Paléocène-Eocène (55,8±0,2 Ma) est marquée par un réchauffement extraordinaire communément appelé « Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum » (PETM). Les données géochimiques caractérisant les sédiments marins et continentaux de cette période indiquent que ce réchauffement a été déclenché par une augmentation massive de CO2 lié à la déstabilisation des hydrates de méthane stockés le long des marges océaniques. L'étude des événements PETM constitue donc un bon analogue avec le réchauffement actuel. Le volume de CO2 émis durant le PETM est comparable avec le CO2 lié à l'activité actuelle humaine. La compréhension des causes du réchauffement du PETM peut être cruciale pour prévoir et évaluer les conséquences du réchauffement anthropogénique, en particulier les répercussions d'un tel réchauffement sur les domaines continentaux et océaniques. De nombreux facteurs entrent en ligne de compte dans le cas du PETM, tels que la paléogéographie, la paléotopographie et les paléoenvironnement. Pour mieux comprendre les réponses environnementales aux événements du PETM, 2 types d'environnements ont été choisis : (1) le domaine marin ouvert mais relativement peu profond (Wadi Nukhul. Sinai, Dababiya, Luxor, Egypte), (2) le milieu continental marécageux humide (mines de lignite, Inde) et fluviatile, semi-aride (Esplugafreda, Pyrénées espagnoles). Dans le domaine marin, le PETM est caractérisé par des excursions négatives du ô13Ccar et ô13Corg et un shift persistant des valeurs de 815N à ~ 0 %o indiquant une forte activité des organismes (bactéries) fixant l'azote. La diminution des carbonates observée durant le PETM peut-être due à des phénomènes de dissolution ou une augmentation des apports terrigènes. Des taux élevés en Ti, K et Zr et une diminution des montants de Si, reflétés par des valeurs des indices d'altération (CIA) qui coïncident avec une augmentation significative des apports de kaolinite impliquent une altération chimique accrue, du fait de conditions plus humides au début du PETM. Deux événements anoxiques globaux ont été mis en évidence durant le PETM. Le premier, situé dans la partie inférieur du PETM, serait lié à la libération des hydrates de méthane stockés le long des talus continentaux et ne correspond pas à des variations significatives des éléments sensibles aux changements de conditions redox. Le second est caractérisé par une augmentation des éléments U, Mo, V et Fe et la présence de petit framboids de pyrite dont la taille varie entre 2 et 5pm. Le second épisode anoxique est caractérisé par une forte augmentation des éléments sensibles aux changements de la productivité (Cu, Ni et Co), indiquant une augmentation de la productivité dans les eaux de surface. Les données obtenues mettent en évidence le rôle crucial joué par l'altération et les apports en nutriments qui en découlent. Ces paramètres sont cruciaux pour la succession des événements qui ont conduit au PETM, et plus particulièrement l'augmentation de la productivité dans la phase de récupération. Durant le PETM, le milieu continental est caractérisé par l'établissement de conditions humides qui ont facilité voir provoqué la migration des mammifères modernes qui ont suivi le déplacement de ces ceintures climatiques. L'âge de cette migration est basé sur des arguments chimiostratigraphiques (isotopes stables), biostratigraphiques et paléomagnétiques. Les données bibliographiques ainsi que celles que nous avons récoltées en Inde, montrent que les mammifères modernes ont d'abord migré depuis l'Asie vers l'Europe, puis dans le continent Nord américain. Ces derniers ne sont arrivés en Inde que plus tardivement, suggérant que le temps de leur migration est lié à la collision Inde-Asie. Dans le Nord-Est de l'Espagne (Esplugafreda), la réponse du milieu continental aux événements PETM est assez différente. Comme en Inde, deux excursions signicatives en ô13C ont été observées. La première correspond au PETM et la seconde est corrélée avec l'optimum thermique de l'Eocène précoce (ETM2). Les isotopes stables de l'oxygène mesurés 2 différents types de nodules calcaires provenant de paléosols suggère une augmentation de 10°C pendant le PETM. Une augmentation simultanée des taux de kaolinite indique une intensification de l'altération chimique et/ou de l'érosion de sols adjacents. Ces résultats démontrent que le PETM coïncide globalement avec des variations climatiques extrêmes qui sont très aisément reconnaissables dans les dépôts continentaux.

Trace-element and phosphorus contents in sediment associated with Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events

ABSTRACT : During my SNSF-funded Ph.D. thesis project, I studied the evolution of redox conditions and organic-carbon preservation in the western Tethyan realm during three major positive excursions in the Cretaceous δ13C record, corresponding to the Valanginian, Early Aptian and Late Cenomanian. These periods were characterized by important global environmental and climate change, which was associated with perturbations in the carbon cycle. For the period of the Valanginian δ13C excursion, total organic carbon (TOC) contents and the quality of preserved organic matter are typical of oxic pelagic settings in the western Tethys. This is confirmed by the absence of major excursions in the stratigraphic distribution of RSTE during the δ13C shift. Published TOC data from other parts of the Valanginian oceans indicate that dys- to anaerobic zones were restricted to marginal seas within the Atlantic and Southern Ocean, and to the Pacific. Phosphorus (P) and mineralogical contents suggest a stepwise climatic evolution during the Valanginian, with a humid and warm climate prior to the δ13C shift leading to an increase in continental runoff. During the δ13C shift, a decrease in detrital input and P contents suggests a change in the climate towards more and conditions. During the early Aptian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 1a), a general increase followed by a rapid decrease in P contents suggests enhanced nutrient input at the beginning of OAE 1a. The return to lower values during OAE 1 a, associated with an increase in RSTE contents, may have been related to the weakened capacity to retain P in the sedimentary reservoir due to bottom-water oxygen depletion. In basinal settings, the RSTE distribution indicates well-developed anoxic conditions during OAE la, whereas in the shallower-water environments, conditions were oxic to suboxic, rather than anoxic. Furthermore, in the deeper part of the Tethys, two distinct enrichments have been observed, indicating fluctuations in the intensity of water column anoxia during the δ73C excursion. We also studied the effect of the end-Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 2) on an expanded section in the Chrummflueschlucht (E of Euthal, Ct Switzerland). The goal here was to identify paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental conditions during OAE 2 in this part of the northern Tethyan margin. The results show that this section is one of the most complete sections for the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary interval known from the Helvetic realm, despite a small hiatus between sediments corresponding to peaks 1 and 2 in the δ13C record. The evolution of P contents points to an increase in the input of this nutrient at the onset of OAE 2. The trends in RSTE contents show, however, that this part of the Helvetic realm was not affected by a strong depletion in oxygen conditions during OAE 2, despite its hemipelagic position. A further goal of this project was to submit the samples to a total extraction method (a combined HF/HNO3/HCI acid digestion) and compare the results obtained by the partial HNO3 acid extraction in order to standardize the analytical prócedures in the extraction of RSTE. The obtained results for samples of OAE 1 a suggest that RSTE trends using the partial HNO3 digestion are very comparable to those obtained by the total digestion method and subsequently normalized with regards to AI contents. RÉSUMÉ : Durant ce projet de thèse, financé par le Swiss National Science Funding (SNSF), j'ai étudié l'évolution des conditions redox et de la préservation de carbone organique dans le domnaine ouesttéthysien pendant trois excursions majeures du δ13C au Crétacé correspondant au Valanginien, à l'Aptien inférieur et à la limite Cénomanien-Turonien. Ces périodes sont caractérisées par des changements climatiques et environnementaux globaux associés à des perturbations dans le cylce du carbone. Pour L'excursion positive en δ13C du Valanginien, les analyses du carbone organique total (COT) et les observations palynologiques du domaine téthysien ont présenté des indications d'environnement pélagique relativementbienoxygéné. L'absence d'enrichissements en éléments traces sensibles aux conditions redox (TE) pendant l'excursion positive en δ13C confirme ces interprétations. Les données publiées de COT dans d'autres partie du globe indiquent cependant l'existence de conditions dys- à anaérobiques dans certains bassins restreints de l'Atlantique, l'Océan Austral et du Pacifique. L'évolution du phosphore (P) et la composition minéralogique des sédiments semblent indiquer un climat relativement chaud et humide avant l'excursion en δ13C entraînant une augmentation de l'altération continentale. Pendant le shift isotopique, une diminution des apports détritiques et du P suggèrent une transition vers des conditions plus arides. À l'Aptien Inférieur, le début de l'événement anoxique (OAE 1a) est marqué par une augmentation générale du P dans les sédiments indiquant une augmentation du niveau trophique à la base de l'excursion isotopique. Durant l'événement anoxique, les sédiments sont relativement appauvris en P. Cette diminution rapide associée à des enrichissements en TE est probablement liée à une remobilisation plus importante du P lors de la mise en place de conditions anoxiques dans les eaux de fond. Dans les environnements de bassin, le comportement des TE (enrichissements bien marqués) attestent de conditions réductrices bien marquées alors que dans les environnements moins profonds, les conditions semblent plutôt oxiques à dysoxiques. De plus, deux niveaux d'enrichissement en TE ont été observés dans la partie plus profonde de la Téthys, indiquant des fluctuations assez rapides dans l'intensité de l'anoxie de la colonne d'eau. Nous avons ensuite étudié les effets de l'événement anoxique de la fin du Cenomanien (OAE 2) dans un basin marginal de la marge nord de la Téthys avec la coupe de Chrummflueschlucht (à l'est de Euthal, Ct Schwyz). Les résultats ont montré que cette coupe présente un des enregistrements sédimentaires des plus complets de l'OAE 2 dans le domaine helvétique malgré un hiatus entre le pic 1 et 2 de l'excursion en δ13C. L'évolution du P montre une augmentation au début de l'OAE 2. Cependant, la distribution des TE indique que cette région n'a pas été affectée par des conditions réductrices trop importantes. Un second aspect de ce travail a été l'étude des différentes méthodes sur l'analyse de la distribution des TE. Des échantillons de l'OAE 1a ont été soumis à deux types d'extractions, l'une dite «totale » (attaque combinée d'acides HF/HNO3/HCI) et l'autre dite partielle » (HNO3). Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que les courbes de tendances des TE acquises par extraction partielle sont semblables à celle obtenues par extraction totale et normalisées par l'AI.

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Early Cretaceous life, climate and anoxia

Early Cretaceous life and the environment were strongly influenced by the accelerated break up of Pangaea, which was associated with the formation of a multitude of rift basins, intensified spreading, and important volcanic activity on land and in the sea. These processes likely interacted with greenhouse conditions, and Early Cretaceous climate oscillated between "normal" greenhouse, predominantly arid conditions, and intensified greenhouse, predominantly humid conditions. Arid conditions were important during the latest Jurassic and early Berriasian, the late Barremian, and partly also during the late Aptian. Humid conditions were particularly intense and widespread during shorter episodes of environmental change (EECs): the Valanginian Weissert, the latest Hauterivian Faraoni, the latest Barremian earliest Aptian Taxy, the early Aptian Selli, the early late Aptian Fallot and the late Aptian-early Albian Paquier episodes. Arid conditions were associated with evaporation, low biogeochemical weathering rates, low nutrient fluxes, and partly stratified oceans, leading to oxygen depletion and enhanced preservation of laminated, organic-rich mud (LOM). Humid conditions enabled elevated biogeochemical weathering rates and nutrient fluxes, important runoff and the buildup of freshwater lids in proximal basins, intensified oceanic and atmospheric circulation, widespread upwelling and phosphogenesis, important primary productivity and enhanced preservation of LOM in expanded oxygen-minimum zones. The transition of arid to humid climates may have been associated with the net transfer of water to the continent owing to the infill of dried-out groundwater reservoirs in internally drained inland basins. This resulted in shorter-term sea-level fall, which was followed by sea-level rise. These sea-level changes and the influx of freshwater into the ocean may have influenced oxygen-isotope signatures. Climate change preceding and during the Early Cretaceous EECs may have been rapid, but in general, the EECs had a "pre"-history, during which the stage was set for environmental change. Negative feedback on the climate through increased marine LOM preservation was unlikely, because of the low overall organic-carbon accumulation rates during these episodes. Life and climate co-evolved during the Early Cretaceous. Arid conditions may have affected continental life, such as across the Tithonian/Berriasian boundary. Humid conditions and the corresponding tendency to develop dys- to anaerobic conditions in deeper ocean waters led to phases of accelerated extinction in oceans, but may have led to more luxuriant vegetation cover on continents, such as during the Valanginian, to the benefit of herbivores. During Early Cretaceous EECs, reef systems and carbonate platforms in general were particularly vulnerable. They were the first to disappear and the last to recover, often only after several million years. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reorganization of a deeply incised drainage: role of deformation, sedimentation and groundwater flow

Deeply incised drainage networks are thought to be robust and not easily modified, and are commonly used as passive markers of horizontal strain. Yet, reorganizations (rearrangements) appear in the geologic record. We provide field evidence of the reorganization of a Miocene drainage network in response to strike-slip and vertical displacements in Guatemala. The drainage was deeply incised into a 50-km-wide orogen located along the North America-Caribbean plate boundary. It rearranged twice, first during the Late Miocene in response to transpressional uplift along the Polochic fault, and again in the Quaternary in response to transtensional uplift along secondary faults. The pattern of reorganization resembles that produced by the tectonic defeat of rivers that cross growing tectonic structures. Compilation of remote sensing data, field mapping, sediment provenance study, grain-size analysis and Ar(40)/Ar(39) dating from paleovalleys and their fill reveals that the classic mechanisms of river diversion, such as river avulsion over bedrock, or capture driven by surface runoff, are not sufficient to produce the observed diversions. The sites of diversion coincide spatially with limestone belts and reactivated fault zones, suggesting that solution-triggered or deformation-triggered permeability have helped breaching of interfluves. The diversions are also related temporally and spatially to the accumulation of sediment fills in the valleys, upstream of the rising structures. We infer that the breaching of the interfluves was achieved by headward erosion along tributaries fed by groundwater flow tracking from the valleys soon to be captured. Fault zones and limestone belts provided the pathways, and the aquifers occupying the valley fills provided the head pressure that enhanced groundwater circulation. The defeat of rivers crossing the rising structures results essentially from the tectonically enhanced activation of groundwater flow between catchments.

Evolution of a Ladinian (Middle Triassic) intraplatform basin : stratigraphy, microfacies and palaeoecology of the Meride Limestone (Monte San Giorgio, Canton Ticino, Southern Switzerland)

The Monte San Giorgio (Southern Alps, Ticino, Switzerland) is the most important locality in the world for vertebrates dating back to the Middle Triassic. For this reason it was registered in 2003 as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. One of the objectives of this doctoral thesis was to fill some of the cognitive gaps regarding the Ladinian succession, including in particular the San Giorgio Dolomite and the Meride Limestone. In order to achieve this, the entire succession, more than 600 metres thick, was measured and sampled. Biostratigraphic research based on new finds of fossil invertebrates and microfossils and on the palynological analysis of the entire section was integrated with single-zircon U-Pb dating of volcanic ash layers intercalated in the carbonate succession. This enabled a redefinition of the bio-chronostratigraphic and geochronologic framework of the succession, which encompasses a significantly shorter time interval than previously held. The Ladinian section extends from the E. curionii Ammonoid Zone (Early Fassanian) to the P. archelaus Ammonoid Zone (Early Longobardian). The age of the classic fossiliferous levels of the Meride Limestone, rich in organic matter and containing vertebrate fossils which are known all over the world, was defined in both biostratigraphic and geochronologic terms. The presumed stratigraphie significance of the pachypleurosaurid reptiles found in such levels is called into question by new finds. These fossiliferous horizons were found to correspond to the main volcanoclastic intervals of the Buchenstein Formation (Middle and Upper Pietra Verde). Thus, a correlation with the Bagolino Section (Italy) containing the GSSP for the base of the Ladinian was proposed. Bulk sedimentation rates in the studied succession average 200 m/Myr and therefore prove to be 20 times higher than those of the South-Alpine pelagic basins. These values express high carbonate productivity from the surrounding platforms on one hand, and on the other a marked subsidence of the basin. Only in the intervals consisting of laminated limestones did the sedimentation rates drop to average values of around 30 m/Myr. The distribution of organic and inorganic facies appears to be the consequence of relative variations in sea-level. The laminated and organic-matter- rich intervals of the Meride Limestone are linked to a relative sea-level drop which favoured dysoxic to anoxic bottom-water conditions, coupled with an increase in runoff, perhaps due to recurrent explosive volcanic activity. The transient development under dysoxic conditions of monospecific benthic meio-/macrofaunas was documented. Organic matter suggests a predominant origin due to benthic bacterial activity, as can be witnessed in alveolar structures typical of exopolymeric substances secreted by bacteria within microbial mats. A microbial contribution to the carbonate (peloidal) precipitation was documented. The protective effect exerted by these microbial mats is also indicated as the main taphonomic factor contributing to the excellent preservation of vertebrate fossils. A radiolarian assemblage discovered in the lower part of the section (earliest Ladinian, E. curionii Zone) suggests the transient existence of open-marine but not deep-water connections with the tethyan pelagic basins. It shows marked similarities to the faunas typical of the late Anisian, suggesting therefore a low resolution power provided by radiolarian biostratigraphy in recognizing the Anisian/Ladinian boundary. The present thesis describes a new species of conifer (Elatocladus cassinae), a new species of insect (Dasyleptus triassicus) and seven new species of radiolarians (Eptingium danieli, Eptingium neriae, Parentactinosphaera eoladinica, Sepsagon ticinensis, Sepsagon? valporinae, Novamuria wirzi and Pessagnollum? hexaspinosum). In addition, following revision of the type material of already existent taxa, four new genera of radiolarians are introduced: Bernoulliella, Eohexastylus, Ticinosphaera and Lahmosphaera.

Recent human-induced trophic change in the large and deep perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland) compared to historical geochemical variations

This study investigates the sedimentological and geochemical changes that occurred during the last 2200 years in the meromictic Lake Lucerne (Switzerland), one of the largest freshwater lakes of Central Europe. The stable isotope composition (delta C-13 and delta O-18 values) of bulk carbonates is compared to changes in grain-size distribution (clay and silt fraction), natural trace element input (titanium and thorium concentrations), and organic material abundance (C-org, nitrogen and phosphorus) and composition (C/N ratios and hydrogen and oxygen indexes). A drop in carbonate accumulation and in the delta O-18 values of sediments between ca. AD 500 and 700 followed a large and consistent rise in chemical weathering, marked by increases in the silicate-clay fraction and in crustal element concentrations. During the following millennium, there was a long-term decreasing trend in the lithogenic trace element input and in the phosphorus loading, suggesting decreasing terrigeneous input from runoff water. The major sedimentological change over the studied period occurred after ca. AD 1800 with a significant increase in the erosion-driven silt-fraction and in the sedimentation rate. During the last century, human-induced increase in nutrient input to the lake highly enhanced the accumulation of organic matter in sediment. Changes in nutrients and oxygen conditions in the hypolimnion of Lake Lucerne during the eutrophication period (i.e., the last 40 years) highly modified the geochemical fluxes compared to the relatively stable oligotrophic conditions that prevailed during the previous 2000 years. Before the 19th century, climate driven meromixis had a limited impact on the organic matter flux to the sediments, but the accumulation of carbonate considerably decreased during periods of lower mechanical erosion rates and high chemical weathering rates. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term and long range migration of radioisotopes in terrestrial systems : mechanisms of radioisotopes (Cs, Sr, Pu, Am) mobilization in soils

Summary Artificial radionuclides were released in the environment during the atmospheric nuclear weapon tests and after accidental events involving nuclear industries. As a primary receptor of the deposition, the soil is a very sensitive compartment and understanding the interaction and migration of radionuclides within soils allows the development of scenario for the contamination risk of the population and of the environment. Most available field studies on radionuclides in soils only concern one or two isotopes, mostly 137Cs, and few physico-chemical soil parameters. The purpose of this study was a broader understanding of the radioecology of an Alpine valley. In a first part, we aimed to describe the depth distribution of 137Cs, 90Sr, 239+240Pu, and 241Am within different alpine soils and to identify some stable elements as indicators for accumulating layers. In the central part of the study, the goal was to investigate the repartition of ^Sr and 239Pu between the truly dissolved fraction and the colloidal fraction of the soil solutions and to identify the nature of colloids involved in the adsorption of ^Sr and 239Pu. These results were integrated in an "advection- sorption" transport model seeking to explain the migration of 239Pu and 90Sr within the soils and to assess the importance of colloidal transport for these two isotopes. A further aspect studied was the role of the competition between the radioisotopes (137Cs and 90Sr) and their stable chemical analogues (K and Ca) with respect to plant uptake by different plant species. The results on the depth distribution within the soils showed that 137Cs was mostly retained in the topsoil, to the exception of an organic-rich soil (Histosol 2) receiving important surface runoff, where migration down to a depth of 30 cm was observed. 137Cs depth distribution within the soils was similar to unsupported 210Pb depth distribution. The plant uptake of 137Cs clearly depended on the concentration of exchangeable potassium in the soils. Moreover, we showed that the 137Cs uptake by certain species of the taxonomic orders Poales and Rosales was more sensitive to the increase in exchangeable Κ compared to other orders. Strontium-90 was much more mobile in the soils than 137Cs and depth migration and accumulation in specific AI- and Fe-rich layers were found down to 30 cm. Copper and Ni showed accumulations in these same layers, indicating their potential to be used as indicators for the migration of ^Sr within the soils. In addition, we observed a 90Sr activity peak in the topsoil that can be attributable to recycling of 90Sr by plant uptake. We demonstrated for the first time that a part of 90Sr (at least 40%) was associated with the colloids in organic-rich soil solutions. Therefore, we predict a significant effect of the colloidal migration of ^Sr in organic-rich soil solutions. The plant uptake results for 90Sr indicated a phylogenetic effect between Non-Eudicot and Eudicots: the order Poales concentrating much less 90Sr than Eudicots do. Moreover, we were able to demonstrate that the sensitivity of the 90Sr uptake by 5 different Alpine plant species to the amount of exchangeable Ca was species-independent. Plutonium and 241Am accumulated in the second layer of all soils and only a slight migration deeper than 20 cm was observed. Plutonium and 241Am showed a similar depth distribution in the soils. The model results suggested that the present day migration of 239Pu was very slow and that the uptake by plants was negligible. 239Pu activities between 0.01 to 0.08 mBq/L were measured in the bulk soil solutions. Migration of 239Pu with the soil solution is dominated by colloidal transport. We reported strong evidences that humic substances were responsible of the sorption of 239Pu to the colloidal fraction of the soil solutions. This was reflected by the strong correlation between 239Pu concentrations and the content of (colloidal) organic matter in the soil solution. Résumé Certains radioéléments artificiels ont été disséminés dans l'environnement suite aux essais atmosphériques de bombes nucléaires et suite à des accidents impliquant les industries nucléaires. En tant que récepteur primaire de la déposition, le sol est un compartiment sensible et des connaissances sur les interactions et la migration des radioéléments dans le sol permettent de développer des modèles pour estimer la contamination de la population et de l'environnement. Actuellement, la plupart des études de terrain sur ce sujet concernent uniquement un ou deux radioéléments, surtout le 137Cs et peu d'études intègrent les paramètres du sol pour expliquer la migration des radioéléments. Le but général de cette étude était une compréhension étendue de la radio-écologie d'une vallée alpine. Notre premier objectif était de décrire la distribution en profondeur de 137Cs, ^Sr, 239+240pu et 241Am dans différents sols alpins en relation avec des éléments stables du sol, dans le but d'identifier des éléments stables qui pourraient servir d'indicateurs pour des horizons accumulateurs. L'objectif de la deuxième partie, qui était la partie centrale de l'étude, était d'estimer le pourcentage d'activité sous forme colloïdale du 239Pu et du 90Sr dans les solutions des sols. De plus nous avons déterminé la nature des colloïdes impliqués dans la fixation du ^Sr et 239Pu. Nous avons ensuite intégré ces résultats dans un modèle de transport développé dans le but de décrire la migration du 239Pu et 90Sr dans le sol. Finalement, nous avons étudié l'absorption de 137Cs et 90Sr par les plantes en fonction de l'espèce et de la compétition avec leur élément analogue stable (K et Ca). Les résultats sur la migration en profondeur du 137Cs ont montré que ce radioélément était généralement retenu en surface, à l'exception d'un sol riche en matière organique dans lequel nous avons observé une nette migration en profondeur. Dans tous les sols, la distribution en profondeur du 137Cs était corrélée avec la distribution du 210Pb. L'absorption du 137Cs par les plantes, était dépendante de la concentration en Κ échangeable dans le sol, le potassium étant un compétiteur. De plus, nous avons observé que les espèces ne réagissaient pas de la même manière aux variations de la concentration de Κ échangeable. En effet, les espèces appartenant aux ordres des Poales et des Rosales étaient plus sensibles aux variations de potassium échangeable dans le sol. Dans tous les sols Le 90Sr était beaucoup plus mobile que le 137Cs. En effet, nous avons observé des accumulations de 90Sr dans des horizons riches en Fe et Al jusqu'à 30 cm de profondeur. De plus, le Cu et le Ni montraient des accumulations dans les mêmes horizons que le 90Sr, indiquant qu'il pourrait être possible d'utiliser ces deux éléments comme analogues pour la migration du 90Sr. D'après le modèle développé, le pic de 90Sr dans les premiers centimètres du sol peut être attribué à du recyclage par les plantes. Le 90Sr en solution était principalement sous forme dissoute dans des solutions de sols peu organique (entre 60 et 100% de 90Sr dissous). Par contre, dans des solutions organiques, un important pourcentage de 90Sr (plus de 40%) était associé aux colloïdes. La migration colloïdale du 90Sr peut donc être significative dans des solutions organiques. Comme pour le 137Cs, l'absorption du 90Sr par les plantes dépendait de la concentration de son analogue chimique dans la fraction échangeable du sol. Par contre, les espèces de plantes étudiées avaient la même sensibilité aux variations de la concentration du calcium échangeable. Le plutonium et l'américium étaient accumulés dans le deuxième horizon du sol et nous avons observé seulement une faible migration plus profondément que 20 cm. Selon le modèle, la migration actuelle du plutonium est très lente et l'absorption par les plantes semble négligeable. Nous avons mesuré entre 0.01 et 0.08 mBq/L de 239Pu dans les solutions de sol brutes. La migration du plutonium par la solution du sol est due principalement aux colloïdes, probablement de nature humique. Résumé grand public Dans les années 1950 à 1960, l'environnement a été contaminé par des éléments radioactifs (radioéléments) artificiels provenant des essais des armes atomiques et de l'industrie nucléaire. En effet, durant ces années, les premiers essais de bombes atomiques se faisaient dans l'atmosphère, libérant de grandes quantités d'éléments radioactifs. De plus certains accidents impliquant l'industrie nucléaire civile ont contribué à la dissémination d'éléments radioactifs dans l'environnement. Ce fut par exemple le cas de l'accident de la centrale atomique de Tchernobyl en 1986 qui a causé une importante contamination d'une grande partie de l'Europe par le 137Cs. Lorsqu'ils sont libérés dans l'atmosphère, les radioéléments sont dispersés et transportés par les courants atmosphériques, puis peuvent être déposés dans l'environnement, principalement par les précipitations. Une fois déposés sur le sol, les radioéléments vont interagir avec les composants du sol et migrer plus ou moins vite. La connaissance des interactions des éléments radioactifs avec le sol est donc importante pour prédire les risques de contamination de l'environnement et de l'homme. Le but général de ce travail était d'évaluer la migration de différents éléments radioactifs (césium-137, strontium-90, plutonium et américium-241) à travers le sol. Nous avons choisi un site d'étude en milieu alpin (Val Piora, Tessin, Suisse), contaminé en radioéléments principalement par les retombées de l'accident de Tchernobyl et des essais atmosphériques de bombes atomiques. Dans un premier temps, nous avons caractérisé la distribution en profondeur des éléments radioactifs dans le sol et l'avons comparée à divers éléments stables. Cette comparaison nous a permit de remarquer que le cuivre et le nickel s'accumulaient dans les mêmes horizons du sol que le strontium-90 et pourraient donc être utilisés comme analogue pour la migration du strontium-90 dans les sols. Dans la plupart des sols étudiés, la migration du césium-137, du plutonium et de l'américium-241 était lente et ces radioéléments étaient donc accumulés dans les premiers centimètres du sol. Par contre, le strontium-90 a migré beaucoup plus rapidement que les autres radioéléments si bien qu'on observe des accumulations de strontium-90 à plus de 30 cm de profondeur. Les radioéléments migrent dans la solution du sol soit sous forme dissoute, soit sous forme colloïdale, c'est-à-dire associés à des particules de diamètre < Ιμηι. Cette association avec des colloïdes permet à des radioéléments peu solubles, comme le plutonium, de migrer plus rapidement qu'attendu. Nous avons voulu savoir quelle était la part de strontium-90 et plutonium associés à des colloïdes dans la solution du sol. Les résultats ont montré que le plutonium en solution était principalement associé à des colloïdes de type organique. Quant au strontium-90, ce dernier était en partie associé à des colloïdes dans des solutions de sol riches en matière organique, par contre, il était principalement sous forme dissoute dans les solutions de sol peu organiques. L'absorption de radioéléments par les plantes représente une voie importante pour le transfert vers la chaîne alimentaire, par conséquent pour la contamination de l'homme. Nous avons donc étudié le transfert du césium-137 et du strontium-90 de plusieurs sols vers différentes espèces de plantes. Les résultats ont montré que l'absorption des radioéléments par les plantes était liée à la concentration de leur analogue chimique (calcium pour le strontium-90 et potassium pour le césium- 137) dans la fraction échangeable du sol. De plus certaines espèces de plantes accumulent significativement moins de strontium-90.

The link between land-use management and fluvial flood risk : a chaotic conception?

There is much policy interest in the possible linkages that might exist between land use and downstream fluvial flood risk. On the one hand, this position is sustained by observations from plot- and field-scale studies that suggest land management does affect runoff. On the other, upscaling these effects to show that land-management activities impact upon flood risk at larger catchment scales has proved to be elusive. This review considers the reasons for why this upscaling is problematic. We argue that, rather than it reflecting methodological challenges associated with the difficulties of modelling hydrological processes over very large areas and during extreme runoff events, it reflects the fact that any linkage between land management and flood risk cannot be generalized and taken out of its specific spatial (catchment) and temporal (flood event) context. We use Sayer's (1992) notion of a `chaotic conception' to describe the belief that there is a simple and general association between land management and downstream flood risk rather than the impacts of land management being spatially and temporally contingent in relation to the particular geographical location, time period and scale being considered. Our argument has important practical consequences because it implies that land-management activities to reduce downstream flood risk will be different to traditional flood-reduction interventions such as levees. The purpose of demonstration projects then needs careful consideration such that conclusions made for one project are not transferred uncritically to other scales of analysis or geographical locations.

Fate of the herbicide glyphosate and its metabolite AMPA in soils and their transfer to surface waters: A multi-scale approach in the Lavaux vineyards, western Switzerland

The use of herbicides in agriculture may lead to environmental problems, such as surface water pollution, with a potential risk for aquatic organisms. The herbicide glyphosate is the most used active ingredient in the world and in Switzerland. In the Lavaux vineyards it is nearly the only molecule applied. This work aimed at studying its fate in soils and its transfer to surface waters, using a multi-scale approach: from molecular (10-9 m) and microscopic scales (10-6 m), to macroscopic (m) and landscape ones (103 m). First of all, an analytical method was developed for the trace level quantification of this widely used herbicide and its main by-product, aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA). Due to their polar nature, their derivatization with 9-fluorenylmethyl chloroformate (FMOC-Cl) was done prior to their concentration and purification by solid phase extraction. They were then analyzed by ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS). The method was tested in different aqueous matrices with spiking tests and validated for the matrix effect correction in relevant environmental samples. Calibration curves established between 10 and 1000ng/l showed r2 values above 0.989, mean recoveries varied between 86 and 133% and limits of detection and quantification of the method were as low as 5 and 10ng/l respectively. At the parcel scale, two parcels of the Lavaux vineyard area, located near the Lutrive River at 6km to the east of Lausanne, were monitored to assess to which extent glyphosate and AMPA were retained in the soil or exported to surface waters. They were equipped at their bottom with porous ceramic cups and runoff collectors, which allowed retrieving water samples for the growing seasons 2010 and 2011. Results revealed that the mobility of glyphosate and AMPA in the unsaturated zone was likely driven by the precipitation regime and the soil characteristics, such as slope, porosity structure and layer permeability discrepancy. Elevated glyphosate and AMPA concentrations were measured at 60 and 80 cm depth at parcel bottoms, suggesting their infiltration in the upper parts of the parcels and the presence of preferential flow in the studied parcels. Indeed, the succession of rainy days induced the gradual saturation of the soil porosity, leading to rapid infiltration through macropores, as well as surface runoff formation. Furthermore, the presence of more impervious weathered marls at 100 cm depth induced throughflows, the importance of which for the lateral transport of the herbicide molecules was determined by the slope steepness. Important rainfall events (>10 mm/day) were clearly exporting molecules from the soil top layer, as indicated by important concentrations in runoff samples. A mass balance showed that total loss (10-20%) mainly occurred through surface runoff (96%) and, to a minor extent, by throughflows in soils (4%), with subsequent exfiltration to surface waters. Observations made in the Lutrive River revealed interesting details of glyphosate and AMPA dynamics in urbanized landscapes, such as the Lavaux vineyards. Indeed, besides their physical and chemical properties, herbicide dynamics at the catchment level strongly depend on application rates, precipitation regime, land use and also on the presence of drains or constructed channels. Elevated concentrations, up to 4970 ng/l, observed just after the application, confirmed the diffuse export of these compounds from the vineyard area by surface runoff during main rain events. From April to September 2011, a total load of 7.1 kg was calculated, with 85% coming from vineyards and minor urban sources and 15% from arable crops. Small vineyard surfaces could generate high concentrations of herbicides and contribute considerably to the total load calculated at the outlet, due to their steep slopes (~10%). The extrapolated total amount transferred yearly from the Lavaux vineyards to the Lake of Geneva was of 190kg. At the molecular scale, the possible involvement of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in glyphosate and copper transport was studied using UV/Vis fluorescence spectroscopy. Combined with parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis, this technique allowed characterizing DOM of soil and surface water samples from the studied vineyard area. Glyphosate concentrations were linked to the fulvic-like spectroscopic signature of DOM in soil water samples, as well as to copper, suggesting the formation of ternary complexes. In surface water samples, its concentrations were also correlated to copper ones, but not in a significant way to the fulvic-like signature. Quenching experiments with standards confirmed field tendencies in the laboratory, with a stronger decrease in fluorescence intensity for fulvic-like fluorophore than for more aromatic ones. Lastly, based on maximum concentrations measured in the river, an environmental risk for these compounds was assessed, using laboratory tests and ecotoxicity data from the literature. In our case and with the methodology applied, the risk towards aquatic species was found negligible (RF<1).

Estimating traveltimes and groundwater flow patterns using 3D time-lapse crosshole ERT imaging of electrical resistivity fluctuations induced by infiltrating river water

The infiltration of river water into aquifers is of high relevance to drinking-water production and is a key driver of biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic and riparian zone, but the distribution and quantification of the infiltrating water are difficult to determine using conventional hydrological methods (e.g., borehole logging and tracer tests). By time-lapse inverting crosshole ERT (electrical resistivity tomography) monitoring data, we imaged groundwater flow patterns driven by river water infiltrating a perialpine gravel aquifer in northeastern Switzerland. This was possible because the electrical resistivity of the infiltrating water changed during rainfall-runoff events. Our time-lapse resistivity models indicated rather complex flow patterns as a result of spatially heterogeneous bank filtration and aquifer heterogeneity. The upper part of the aquifer was most affected by the river infiltrate, and the highest groundwater velocities and possible preferential flow occurred at shallow to intermediate depths. Time series of the reconstructed resistivity models matched groundwater electrical resistivity data recorded on borehole loggers in the upper and middle parts of the aquifer, whereas the resistivity models displayed smaller variations and delayed responses with respect to the logging data. in the lower part. This study demonstrated that crosshole ERT monitoring of natural electrical resistivity variations of river infiltrate could be used to image and quantify 3D bank filtration and aquifer dynamics at a high spatial resolution.

Success of thrombolysis as a predictor of outcome in acute thrombosis of popliteal aneurysms.

PURPOSE: Acute limb ischemia after thrombosis of a popliteal aneurysm is a distinct and limb-threatening entity. Preoperative intra-arterial thrombolysis may improve the outcome in this challenging situation. This study retrospectively analyzed a consecutive series of patients treated with preoperative thrombolysis and subsequent revascularization. METHODS: Thirteen patients with acute limb ischemia caused by thrombosis of a popliteal aneurysm underwent catheter-directed intra-arterial thrombolysis with urokinase and subsequent vascular reconstruction. The angiographic and clinical outcome was analyzed and compared with that in the literature. RESULTS: Complete aneurysm thrombosis with absence of runoff was documented in 12 cases. Thrombolysis restored perfusion with patency of the popliteal artery and a one- or two-vessel runoff in 77% of cases (10/13). Early cumulative graft patency and limb salvage rates were 68% and 83%, respectively, with an ankle/brachial index of 0.8 +/- 0.2. Lytic failure followed by attempts at bypass grafting was present in three patients (23%) and resulted in above-knee amputation. Severe rhabdomyolysis and fatal pulmonary embolism were responsible for a 15% early mortality rate. CONCLUSION: Preoperative thrombolysis followed by bypass grafting is a valid treatment option for patients who can withstand an additional period of ischemia that does not require immediate revascularization and intraoperative lysis. Lytic failure identifies patients with a highly compromised runoff who are probably best treated by means of subsequent amputation, without any attempts at bypass grafting.