The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Maintenance of hepatic nuclear factor 6 in postnatal islets impairs terminal differentiation and function of beta-cells.

The Onecut homeodomain transcription factor hepatic nuclear factor 6 (Hnf6) is necessary for proper development of islet beta-cells. Hnf6 is initially expressed throughout the pancreatic epithelium but is downregulated in endocrine cells at late gestation and is not expressed in postnatal islets. Transgenic mice in which Hnf6 expression is maintained in postnatal islets (pdx1(PB)Hnf6) show overt diabetes and impaired glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) at weaning. We now define the mechanism whereby maintenance of Hnf6 expression postnatally leads to beta-cell dysfunction. We provide evidence that continued expression of Hnf6 impairs GSIS by altering insulin granule biosynthesis, resulting in a reduced response to secretagogues. Sustained expression of Hnf6 also results in downregulation of the beta-cell-specific transcription factor MafA and a decrease in total pancreatic insulin. These results suggest that downregulation of Hnf6 expression in beta-cells during development is essential to achieve a mature, glucose-responsive beta-cell.

Atherosclerotic mice exhibit systemic inflammation in periadventitial and visceral adipose tissue, liver, and pancreatic islets.

OBJECTIVE: Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease of major conduit arteries. Similarly, obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus are associated with accumulation of macrophages in visceral white adipose tissue and pancreatic islets. Our goal was to characterize systemic inflammation in atherosclerosis with hypercholesterolemia, but without obesity. METHODS AND RESULTS: We compared 22-week-old apolipoprotein E knockout (ApoE(-/-)) with wild-type mice kept for 14 weeks on a high cholesterol (1.25%) diet (CD, n=8) and 8-week-old ApoE(-/-) with wild-type mice kept on a normal diet (ND, n=8). Hypercholesterolemic, atherosclerotic ApoE(-/-) mice on CD exhibited increased macrophages and T-cells in plaques and periadventitial adipose tissue that revealed elevated expression of MIP-1alpha, IL-1beta, IL-1 receptor, and IL-6. Mesenteric adipose tissue and pancreatic islets in ApoE(-/-) mice showed increased macrophages. Expression of IL-1beta was enhanced in mesenteric adipose tissue of ApoE(-/-) mice on CD. Furthermore, these mice exhibited steatohepatitis with macrophage and T-cell infiltrations as well as increased MIP-1alpha and IL-1 receptor expression. Blood glucose, insulin and total body weight did not differ between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: In hypercholesterolemic lean ApoE(-/-) mice, inflammation extends beyond atherosclerotic plaques to the periadventitial and visceral adipose tissue, liver, and pancreatic islets without affecting glucose homeostasis.

Novel loci for adiponectin levels and their influence on type 2 diabetes and metabolic traits: a multi-ethnic meta-analysis of 45,891 individuals.

Circulating levels of adiponectin, a hormone produced predominantly by adipocytes, are highly heritable and are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and other metabolic traits. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in 39,883 individuals of European ancestry to identify genes associated with metabolic disease. We identified 8 novel loci associated with adiponectin levels and confirmed 2 previously reported loci (P = 4.5×10(-8)-1.2×10(-43)). Using a novel method to combine data across ethnicities (N = 4,232 African Americans, N = 1,776 Asians, and N = 29,347 Europeans), we identified two additional novel loci. Expression analyses of 436 human adipocyte samples revealed that mRNA levels of 18 genes at candidate regions were associated with adiponectin concentrations after accounting for multiple testing (p<3×10(-4)). We next developed a multi-SNP genotypic risk score to test the association of adiponectin decreasing risk alleles on metabolic traits and diseases using consortia-level meta-analytic data. This risk score was associated with increased risk of T2D (p = 4.3×10(-3), n = 22,044), increased triglycerides (p = 2.6×10(-14), n = 93,440), increased waist-to-hip ratio (p = 1.8×10(-5), n = 77,167), increased glucose two hours post oral glucose tolerance testing (p = 4.4×10(-3), n = 15,234), increased fasting insulin (p = 0.015, n = 48,238), but with lower in HDL-cholesterol concentrations (p = 4.5×10(-13), n = 96,748) and decreased BMI (p = 1.4×10(-4), n = 121,335). These findings identify novel genetic determinants of adiponectin levels, which, taken together, influence risk of T2D and markers of insulin resistance.

A genome-wide association search for type 2 diabetes genes in African Americans.

African Americans are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes (T2DM) yet few studies have examined T2DM using genome-wide association approaches in this ethnicity. The aim of this study was to identify genes associated with T2DM in the African American population. We performed a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) using the Affymetrix 6.0 array in 965 African-American cases with T2DM and end-stage renal disease (T2DM-ESRD) and 1029 population-based controls. The most significant SNPs (n = 550 independent loci) were genotyped in a replication cohort and 122 SNPs (n = 98 independent loci) were further tested through genotyping three additional validation cohorts followed by meta-analysis in all five cohorts totaling 3,132 cases and 3,317 controls. Twelve SNPs had evidence of association in the GWAS (P<0.0071), were directionally consistent in the Replication cohort and were associated with T2DM in subjects without nephropathy (P<0.05). Meta-analysis in all cases and controls revealed a single SNP reaching genome-wide significance (P<2.5×10(-8)). SNP rs7560163 (P = 7.0×10(-9), OR (95% CI) = 0.75 (0.67-0.84)) is located intergenically between RND3 and RBM43. Four additional loci (rs7542900, rs4659485, rs2722769 and rs7107217) were associated with T2DM (P<0.05) and reached more nominal levels of significance (P<2.5×10(-5)) in the overall analysis and may represent novel loci that contribute to T2DM. We have identified novel T2DM-susceptibility variants in the African-American population. Notably, T2DM risk was associated with the major allele and implies an interesting genetic architecture in this population. These results suggest that multiple loci underlie T2DM susceptibility in the African-American population and that these loci are distinct from those identified in other ethnic populations.

Small cell (neuroendocrine) carcinoma of the prostate: etiology, diagnosis, prognosis, and therapeutic implications--a retrospective study of 30 patients from the rare cancer network.

Within the framework of the Rare Cancer Network Study, we examined 30 patients suffering from small cell neuroendocrine prostate cancer, either in an early/localized or an advanced/metastatic stage. Patients were treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy, with or without pelvic radiotherapy. Two patients with early disease achieved complete remission for a duration of 19 and 22 months. Three patients with advanced disease achieved complete remission for 6, 7, and 54 months, respectively. Twenty-five patients succumbed to massive local and/or distant failure. No patient presented with brain metastases as the initial site of relapse. Small cell neuroendocrine prostate carcinoma is a very aggressive disease with a poor prognosis, even in its localized form. Despite initial response, the common cisplatin-based chemotherapy plus radiotherapy failed to improve outcome markedly. Improvement will come from understanding the biology of the disease and integrating new targeted therapies into the treatment of this rare and aggressive tumor.

A coiled coil trigger site is essential for rapid binding of synaptobrevin to the SNARE acceptor complex.

Exocytosis from synaptic vesicles is driven by stepwise formation of a tight alpha-helical complex between the fusing membranes. The complex is composed of the three SNAREs: synaptobrevin 2, SNAP-25, and syntaxin 1a. An important step in complex formation is fast binding of vesicular synaptobrevin to the preformed syntaxin 1.SNAP-25 dimer. Exactly how this step relates to neurotransmitter release is not well understood. Here, we combined different approaches to gain insights into this reaction. Using computational methods, we identified a stretch in synaptobrevin 2 that may function as a coiled coil "trigger site." This site is also present in many synaptobrevin homologs functioning in other trafficking steps. Point mutations in this stretch inhibited binding to the syntaxin 1.SNAP-25 dimer and slowed fusion of liposomes. Moreover, the point mutations severely inhibited secretion from chromaffin cells. Altogether, this demonstrates that the trigger site in synaptobrevin is crucial for productive SNARE zippering.

A genome-wide approach accounting for body mass index identifies genetic variants influencing fasting glycemic traits and insulin resistance.

Recent genome-wide association studies have described many loci implicated in type 2 diabetes (T2D) pathophysiology and β-cell dysfunction but have contributed little to the understanding of the genetic basis of insulin resistance. We hypothesized that genes implicated in insulin resistance pathways might be uncovered by accounting for differences in body mass index (BMI) and potential interactions between BMI and genetic variants. We applied a joint meta-analysis approach to test associations with fasting insulin and glucose on a genome-wide scale. We present six previously unknown loci associated with fasting insulin at P < 5 × 10(-8) in combined discovery and follow-up analyses of 52 studies comprising up to 96,496 non-diabetic individuals. Risk variants were associated with higher triglyceride and lower high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, suggesting a role for these loci in insulin resistance pathways. The discovery of these loci will aid further characterization of the role of insulin resistance in T2D pathophysiology.