Middle and Late Jurassic carbon stable-isotope stratigraphy and radiolarite sedimentation of the Umbria-Marche basin (Central Italy)

A continuous carbon isotope curve from Middle-Upper Jurassic pelagic carbonate rocks was acquired from two sections in the southern part of the Umbria-Marche Apennines in central Italy. At the Colle Bertone section (Terni) and the Terminilletto section (Rieti), the Upper Toarcian to Bajocian Calcari e Marne a Posidonia Formation and the Aalenian to Kimmeridgian Calcari e Marne a Posidonia and Calcari Diasprigni formations were sampled, respectively. Biostratigraphy in both sections is based on rich assemblages of calcareous nannofossils and radiolarians, as well as some ammonites found in the upper Toarcian-Bajocian interval. Both sections revealed a relative minimum of delta(13)C(PDB) close to + 2 parts per thousand in the Aalenian and a maximum around 3.5 parts per thousand in early Bajocian, associated with an increase in visible chert. In basinal sections in Umbria-Marche, this interval includes the very cherry base of the Calcari Diasprigni Formation (e.g. at Valdorbia) or the chert-rich uppermost portion of the Calcari a Posidonia (e.g at Bosso). In the Terminilletto section, the Bajocian-early Barthonian interval shows a gradual decrease in delta(13)C(PDB) values and a low around 2.3 parts per thousand. This part of the section is characterised by more than 40 m of almost chart-free limestones and correlates with a recurrence of limestone-rich facies in basinal sections at Valdorbia. A double peak with values of delta(13)C(PDB) around + 3 parts per thousand was observed in the Callovian and Oxfordian, constrained by well preserved radiolarian faunas. The maxima lie in the Callovian and the middle Oxfordian, and the minimum between the two peaks should be near the Callovian/Oxfordian boundary. In the Terminilletto section, visible chert increases together with delta(13)C(PDB) values from the middle Bathonian and reaches peak values in the Callovian-Oxfordian. In basinal sections in Umbria-Marche, a sharp increase in visible chert is observed at this level within the Calcari Diasprigni. A drop of delta(13)C values towards + 2 parts per thousand occurs in the Kimmeridgian and coincides with a decrease of visible chert in outcrop. The observed delta(13)C positive anomalies during the early Bajocian and the Callovian-Oxfordian may record changes in global climate towards warmer, more humid periods characterised by increased nutrient mobilisation and increased carbon burial. High biosiliceous (radiolarians, siliceous sponges) productivity and preservation appear to coincide with the delta(13)C positive anomalies, when the production of platform carbonates was subdued and ceased in many areas, with a drastic reduction of periplatform ooze input in many Tethyan basins. The carbon and silica cycles appear to be linked through global warming and increased continental weathering. Hydrothermal events related to extensive rifting and/or accelerated oceanic spreading may be the endogenic driving force that created a perturbation of the exogenic system (excess CO2 into the atmosphere and greenhouse conditions) reflected by the positive delta(13)C shifts and biosiliceous episodes.

Adaptively weighted maximum likelihood estimation of discrete distributions

SummaryDiscrete data arise in various research fields, typically when the observations are count data.I propose a robust and efficient parametric procedure for estimation of discrete distributions. The estimation is done in two phases. First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed and used to indentify outliers. Then the outliers are either removed from the sample or given low weights, and a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WML) is computed.The weights are determined via an adaptive process such that if the data follow the model, then asymptotically no observation is downweighted.I prove that the final estimator inherits the breakdown point of the initial one, and that its influence function at the model is the same as the influence function of the maximum likelihood estimator, which strongly suggests that it is asymptotically fully efficient.The initial estimator is a minimum disparity estimator (MDE). MDEs can be shown to have full asymptotic efficiency, and some MDEs have very high breakdown points and very low bias under contamination. Several initial estimators are considered, and the performances of the WMLs based on each of them are studied.It results that in a great variety of situations the WML substantially improves the initial estimator, both in terms of finite sample mean square error and in terms of bias under contamination. Besides, the performances of the WML are rather stable under a change of the MDE even if the MDEs have very different behaviors.Two examples of application of the WML to real data are considered. In both of them, the necessity for a robust estimator is clear: the maximum likelihood estimator is badly corrupted by the presence of a few outliers.This procedure is particularly natural in the discrete distribution setting, but could be extended to the continuous case, for which a possible procedure is sketched.RésuméLes données discrètes sont présentes dans différents domaines de recherche, en particulier lorsque les observations sont des comptages.Je propose une méthode paramétrique robuste et efficace pour l'estimation de distributions discrètes. L'estimation est faite en deux phases. Tout d'abord, un estimateur très robuste des paramètres du modèle est calculé, et utilisé pour la détection des données aberrantes (outliers). Cet estimateur n'est pas nécessairement efficace. Ensuite, soit les outliers sont retirés de l'échantillon, soit des faibles poids leur sont attribués, et un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance pondéré (WML) est calculé.Les poids sont déterminés via un processus adaptif, tel qu'asymptotiquement, si les données suivent le modèle, aucune observation n'est dépondérée.Je prouve que le point de rupture de l'estimateur final est au moins aussi élevé que celui de l'estimateur initial, et que sa fonction d'influence au modèle est la même que celle du maximum de vraisemblance, ce qui suggère que cet estimateur est pleinement efficace asymptotiquement.L'estimateur initial est un estimateur de disparité minimale (MDE). Les MDE sont asymptotiquement pleinement efficaces, et certains d'entre eux ont un point de rupture très élevé et un très faible biais sous contamination. J'étudie les performances du WML basé sur différents MDEs.Le résultat est que dans une grande variété de situations le WML améliore largement les performances de l'estimateur initial, autant en terme du carré moyen de l'erreur que du biais sous contamination. De plus, les performances du WML restent assez stables lorsqu'on change l'estimateur initial, même si les différents MDEs ont des comportements très différents.Je considère deux exemples d'application du WML à des données réelles, où la nécessité d'un estimateur robuste est manifeste : l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance est fortement corrompu par la présence de quelques outliers.La méthode proposée est particulièrement naturelle dans le cadre des distributions discrètes, mais pourrait être étendue au cas continu.

Efficacy and Safety of Canakinumab Vs Triamcinolone Acetonide in Patients with Gouty Arthritis Unable to Use Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs and Colchicine, and On Stable Urate Lowering Therapy (ULT) or Unable to Use ULT

Background/Purpose: The primary treatment goals for gouty arthritis (GA) are rapid relief of pain and inflammation during acute attacks, and long-term hyperuricemia management. A post-hoc analysis of 2 pivotal trials was performed to assess efficacy and safety of canakinumab (CAN), a fully human monoclonal anti-IL-1_ antibody, vs triamcinolone acetonide (TA) in GA patients unable to use NSAIDs and colchicine, and who were on stable urate lowering therapy (ULT) or unable to use ULT. Methods: In these 12-week, randomized, multicenter, double-blind, double-dummy, active-controlled studies (_-RELIEVED and _-RELIEVED II), patients had to have frequent attacks (_3 attacks in previous year) meeting preliminary GA ACR 1977 criteria, and were unresponsive, intolerant, or contraindicated to NSAIDs and/or colchicine, and if on ULT, ULT was stable. Patients were randomized during an acute attack to single dose CAN 150 mg s.c. or TA 40 mg i.m. and were redosed "on demand" for each new attack. Patients completing the core studies were enrolled into blinded 12-week extension studies to further investigate on-demand use of CAN vs TA for new attacks. The subpopulation selected for this post-hoc analysis was (a) unable to use NSAIDs and colchicine due to contraindication, intolerance or lack of efficacy for these drugs, and (b) currently on ULT, or contraindication or previous failure of ULT, as determined by investigators. Subpopulation comprised 101 patients (51 CAN; 50 TA) out of 454 total. Results: Several co-morbidities, including hypertension (56%), obesity (56%), diabetes (18%), and ischemic heart disease (13%) were reported in 90% of this subpopulation. Pain intensity (VAS 100 mm scale) was comparable between CAN and TA treatment groups at baseline (least-square [LS] mean 74.6 and 74.4 mm, respectively). A significantly lower pain score was reported with CAN vs TA at 72 hours post dose (1st co-primary endpoint on baseline flare; LS mean, 23.5 vs 33.6 mm; difference _10.2 mm; 95% CI, _19.9, _0.4; P_0.0208 [1-sided]). CAN significantly reduced risk for their first new attacks by 61% vs TA (HR 0.39; 95% CI, 0.17-0.91, P_0.0151 [1-sided]) for the first 12 weeks (2nd co-primary endpoint), and by 61% vs TA (HR 0.39; 95% CI, 0.19-0.79, P_0.0047 [1-sided]) over 24 weeks. Serum urate levels increased for CAN vs TA with mean change from baseline reaching a maximum of _0.7 _ 2.0 vs _0.1 _ 1.8 mg/dL at 8 weeks, and _0.3 _ 2.0 vs _0.2 _ 1.4 mg/dL at end of study (all had GA attack at baseline). Adverse Events (AEs) were reported in 33 (66%) CAN and 24 (47.1%) TA patients. Infections and infestations were the most common AEs, reported in 10 (20%) and 5 (10%) patients treated with CAN and TA respectively. Incidence of SAEs was comparable between CAN (gastritis, gastroenteritis, chronic renal failure) and TA (aortic valve incompetence, cardiomyopathy, aortic stenosis, diarrohea, nausea, vomiting, bicuspid aortic valve) groups (2 [4.0%] vs 2 [3.9%]). Conclusion: CAN provided superior pain relief and reduced risk of new attack in highly-comorbid GA patients unable to use NSAIDs and colchicine, and who were currently on stable ULT or unable to use ULT. The safety profile in this post-hoc subpopulation was consistent with the overall _-RELIEVED and _-RELIEVED II population.