Speed-cohesion trade-offs in collective decision making in ants and the concept of precision in animal behaviour

In decision making, speed-accuracy trade-offs are well known and often inevitable because accuracy depends on being well informed and gathering information takes time. However, trade-offs between speed and cohesion, that is the degree to which a group remains together as a single entity, as a result of their decision making, have been comparatively neglected. We combine theory and experimentation to show that in decision-making systems, speed-cohesion trade-offs are a natural complement to speed-accuracy trade-offs and are therefore of general importance. We then analyse the decision performance of 32 rock ant, Temnothorax albipennis, colonies in experiments in which accuracy of collective decision making was held constant, but time urgency varied. These experiments reveal for the first time an adaptive speed-cohesion trade-off in collective decision making and how this is achieved. In accord with different time constraints, colonies can decide quickly, at the cost of social unity, or they can decide slowly with much greater cohesion. We discuss the similarity between cohesion and the term precision as used in statistics and engineering. This emphasizes the generality of speed versus cohesion/precision trade-offs in decision making and decision implementation in other fields within animal behaviour such as sexually selected motor displays and even certain aspects of birdsong. We also suggest that speed versus precision trade-offs may occur when individuals within a group need to synchronize their activity, and in collective navigation, cooperative hunting and in certain escape behaviours.

Assessment of speed of human locomotion using a differential satellite global positioning system.

PURPOSE: The objective was to explore whether a satellite-based navigation system, global positioning system used in differential mode (DGPS), could accurately assess the speed of running in humans. METHODS: A subject was equipped with a portable GPS receptor coupled to a receiver for differential corrections, while running outdoors on a straight asphalt road at 27 different speeds. Actual speed (reference method) was assessed by chronometry. RESULTS: The accuracy of speed prediction had a standard deviation (SD) of 0.08 km x h(-1) for walking, 0.11 km x h(-1) for running, yielding a coefficient of variation (SD/mean) of 1.38% and 0.82%, respectively. There was a highly significant linear relationship between actual and DGPS speed assessment (r2 = 0.999) with little bias in the prediction equation, because the slope of the regression line was close to unity (0.997). CONCLUSION: the DGPS technique appears to be a valid and inconspicuous tool for "on line" monitoring of the speed of displacement of individuals located on any field on earth, for prolonged periods of time and unlimited distance, but only in specific environmental conditions ("open sky"). Furthermore, the accuracy of speed assessment using the differential GPS mode was improved by a factor of 10 as compared to non-differential GPS.

FluxEXPLORER: a new high-speed laser Doppler imaging system for the assessment of burn injuries.

BACKGROUND: Deep burn assessment made by clinical evaluation has an accuracy varying between 60% and 80% and will determine if a burn injury will need tangential excision and skin grafting or if it will be able to heal spontaneously. Laser Doppler Imaging (LDI) techniques allow an improved burn depth assessment but their use is limited by the time-consuming image acquisition which may take up to 6 min per image. METHODS: To evaluate the effectiveness and reliability of a newly developed full-field LDI technology, 15 consecutive patients presenting with intermediate depth burns were assessed both clinically and by FluxExplorer LDI technology. Comparison between the two methods of assessment was carried out. RESULTS: Image acquisition was done within 6 s. FluxEXPLORER LDI technology achieved a significantly improved accuracy of burn depth assessment compared to the clinical judgement performed by board certified plastic and reconstructive surgeons (P < 0.05, 93% of correctly assessed burns injuries vs. 80% for clinical assessment). CONCLUSION: Technological improvements of LDI technology leading to a decreased image acquisition time and reliable burn depth assessment allow the routine use of such devices in the acute setting of burn care without interfering with the patient's treatment. Rapid and reliable LDI technology may assist clinicians in burn depth assessment and may limit the morbidity of burn patients through a minimization of the area of surgical debridement. Future technological improvements allowing the miniaturization of the device will further ease its clinical application.

Accuracy of indirect estimation of power output from uphill performance in cycling.

PURPOSE: To use measurement by cycling power meters (Pmes) to evaluate the accuracy of commonly used models for estimating uphill cycling power (Pest). Experiments were designed to explore the influence of wind speed and steepness of climb on accuracy of Pest. The authors hypothesized that the random error in Pest would be largely influenced by the windy conditions, the bias would be diminished in steeper climbs, and windy conditions would induce larger bias in Pest. METHODS: Sixteen well-trained cyclists performed 15 uphill-cycling trials (range: length 1.3-6.3 km, slope 4.4-10.7%) in a random order. Trials included different riding position in a group (lead or follow) and different wind speeds. Pmes was quantified using a power meter, and Pest was calculated with a methodology used by journalists reporting on the Tour de France. RESULTS: Overall, the difference between Pmes and Pest was -0.95% (95%CI: -10.4%, +8.5%) for all trials and 0.24% (-6.1%, +6.6%) in conditions without wind (<2 m/s). The relationship between percent slope and the error between Pest and Pmes were considered trivial. CONCLUSIONS: Aerodynamic drag (affected by wind velocity and orientation, frontal area, drafting, and speed) is the most confounding factor. The mean estimated values are close to the power-output values measured by power meters, but the random error is between ±6% and ±10%. Moreover, at the power outputs (>400 W) produced by professional riders, this error is likely to be higher. This observation calls into question the validity of releasing individual values without reporting the range of random errors.

Octopus Standard Automated Perimetry, Pulsar Perimetry, Moorfields Motion Displacement Test and Heidelberg Retinal Tomography in Glaucoma Detection - A Comparison of Diagnostic Accuracy

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy of 4 clinical instruments in the detection of glaucomatous damage. Methods: 102 eyes of 55 test subjects (Age mean = 66.5yrs, range = [39; 89]) underwent Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRTIII), (disc area<2.43); and standard automated perimetry (SAP) using Octopus (Dynamic); Pulsar (TOP); and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) (ESTA strategy). Eyes were separated into three groups 1) Healthy (H): IOP<21mmHg and healthy discs (clinical examination), 39 subjects, 78 eyes; 2) Glaucoma suspect (GS): Suspicious discs (clinical examination), 12 subjects, 15 eyes; 3) Glaucoma (G): progressive structural or functional loss, 14 subjects, 20 eyes. Clinical diagnostic precision was examined using the cut-off associated with the p<5% normative limit of MD (Octopus/Pulsar), PTD (MDT) and MRA (HRT) analysis. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were calculated for each instrument. Results: See table Conclusions: Despite the advantage of defining glaucoma suspects using clinical optic disc examination, the HRT did not yield significantly higher accuracy than functional measures. HRT, MDT and Octopus SAP yielded higher accuracy than Pulsar perimetry, although results did not reach statistical significance. Further studies are required to investigate the structure-function correlations between these instruments.

Identifying the neural correlates of executive functions in early cerebral microangiopathy: a combined VBM and DTI study.

Cerebral microangiopathy (CMA) has been associated with executive dysfunction and fronto-parietal neural network disruption. Advances in magnetic resonance imaging allow more detailed analyses of gray (e.g., voxel-based morphometry-VBM) and white matter (e.g., diffusion tensor imaging-DTI) than traditional visual rating scales. The current study investigated patients with early CMA and healthy control subjects with all three approaches. Neuropsychological assessment focused on executive functions, the cognitive domain most discussed in CMA. The DTI and age-related white matter changes rating scales revealed convergent results showing widespread white matter changes in early CMA. Correlations were found in frontal and parietal areas exclusively with speeded, but not with speed-corrected executive measures. The VBM analyses showed reduced gray matter in frontal areas. All three approaches confirmed the hypothesized fronto-parietal network disruption in early CMA. Innovative methods (DTI) converged with results from conventional methods (visual rating) while allowing greater spatial and tissue accuracy. They are thus valid additions to the analysis of neural correlates of cognitive dysfunction. We found a clear distinction between speeded and nonspeeded executive measures in relationship to imaging parameters. Cognitive slowing is related to disease severity in early CMA and therefore important for early diagnostics.

Accuracy of Brain Multimodal Monitoring to Detect Cerebral Hypoperfusion After Traumatic Brain Injury.

OBJECTIVE:: To examine the accuracy of brain multimodal monitoring-consisting of intracranial pressure, brain tissue PO2, and cerebral microdialysis-in detecting cerebral hypoperfusion in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. DESIGN:: Prospective single-center study. PATIENTS:: Patients with severe traumatic brain injury. SETTING:: Medico-surgical ICU, university hospital. INTERVENTION:: Intracranial pressure, brain tissue PO2, and cerebral microdialysis monitoring (right frontal lobe, apparently normal tissue) combined with cerebral blood flow measurements using perfusion CT. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:: Cerebral blood flow was measured using perfusion CT in tissue area around intracranial monitoring (regional cerebral blood flow) and in bilateral supra-ventricular brain areas (global cerebral blood flow) and was matched to cerebral physiologic variables. The accuracy of intracranial monitoring to predict cerebral hypoperfusion (defined as an oligemic regional cerebral blood flow < 35 mL/100 g/min) was examined using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves. Thirty perfusion CT scans (median, 27 hr [interquartile range, 20-45] after traumatic brain injury) were performed on 27 patients (age, 39 yr [24-54 yr]; Glasgow Coma Scale, 7 [6-8]; 24/27 [89%] with diffuse injury). Regional cerebral blood flow correlated significantly with global cerebral blood flow (Pearson r = 0.70, p < 0.01). Compared with normal regional cerebral blood flow (n = 16), low regional cerebral blood flow (n = 14) measurements had a higher proportion of samples with intracranial pressure more than 20 mm Hg (13% vs 30%), brain tissue PO2 less than 20 mm Hg (9% vs 20%), cerebral microdialysis glucose less than 1 mmol/L (22% vs 57%), and lactate/pyruvate ratio more than 40 (4% vs 14%; all p < 0.05). Compared with intracranial pressure monitoring alone (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.61-0.87]), monitoring intracranial pressure + brain tissue PO2 (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.84 [0.74-0.93]) or intracranial pressure + brain tissue PO2+ cerebral microdialysis (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.88 [0.79-0.96]) was significantly more accurate in predicting low regional cerebral blood flow (both p < 0.05). CONCLUSION:: Brain multimodal monitoring-including intracranial pressure, brain tissue PO2, and cerebral microdialysis-is more accurate than intracranial pressure monitoring alone in detecting cerebral hypoperfusion at the bedside in patients with severe traumatic brain injury and predominantly diffuse injury.

Accuracy of a new transmittance-reflectance pulse oximetry sensor in critically ill neonates.

OBJECTIVE: To test the accuracy of a new pulse oximeter sensor based on transmittance and reflectance. This sensor makes transillumination of tissue unnecessary and allows measurements on the hand, forearm, foot, and lower limb. DESIGN: Prospective, open, nonrandomized criterion standard study. SETTING: Neonatal intensive care unit, tertiary care center. PATIENTS: Sequential sample of 54 critically ill neonates (gestational age 27 to 42 wks; postnatal age 1 to 28 days) with arterial catheters in place. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 99 comparisons between pulse oximetry and arterial saturation were obtained. Comparison of femoral or umbilical arterial blood with transcutaneous measurements on the lower limb (n = 66) demonstrated an excellent correlation (r2 = .96). The mean difference was +1.44% +/- 3.51 (SD) % (range -11% to +8%). Comparison of the transcutaneous values with the radial artery saturation from the corresponding upper limb (n = 33) revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.94 with a mean error of +0.66% +/- 3.34% (range -6% to +7%). The mean difference between noninvasive and invasive measurements was least with the test sensor on the hand, intermediate on the calf and arm, and greatest on the foot. The mean error and its standard deviation were slightly larger for arterial saturation values < 90% than for values > or = 90%. CONCLUSION: Accurate pulse oximetry saturation can be acquired from the hand, forearm, foot, and calf of critically ill newborns using this new sensor.

Effect of training-sample size and classification difficulty on the accuracy of genomic predictors.

Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem.

Computer-assisted placement technique in hip resurfacing arthroplasty: improvement in accuracy?

Freehand positioning of the femoral drill guide is difficult during hip resurfacing and the surgeon is often unsure of the implant position achieved peroperatively. The purpose of this study was to find out whether, by using a navigation system, acetabular and femoral component positioning could be made easier and more precise. Eighteen patients operated on by the same surgeon were matched by sex, age, BMI, diagnosis and ASA score (nine patients with computer assistance, nine with the regular ancillary). Pre-operative planning was done on standard AP and axial radiographs with CT scan views for the computer-assisted operations. The final position of implants was evaluated by the same radiographs for all patients. The follow-up was at least 1 year. No difference between both groups in terms of femoral component position was observed (p > 0.05). There was also no difference in femoral notching. A trend for a better cup position was observed for the navigated hips, especially for cup anteversion. There was no additional operating time for the navigated hips. Hip navigation for resurfacing surgery may allow improved visualisation and hip implant positioning, but its advantage probably will be more obvious with mini-incisions than with regular incision surgery.

Diagnostic accuracy of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra in critically ill children with suspected infection.

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the diagnostic accuracy of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), interleukin-8 (IL-8), and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) in identifying patients with sepsis among critically ill pediatric patients with suspected infection. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nested case-control study in a multidisciplinary neonatal and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) PATIENTS: PICU patients during a 12-month period with suspected infection, and plasma available from the time of clinical suspicion (254 episodes, 190 patients). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Plasma levels of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra. Episodes classified on the basis of clinical and bacteriological findings into: culture-confirmed sepsis, probable sepsis, localized infection, viral infection, and no infection. Plasma levels were significantly higher in episodes of culture-confirmed sepsis than in episodes with ruled-out infection. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was higher for IL-8 and G-CSF than for IL-1ra. Combining IL-8 and G-CSF improved the diagnostic performance, particularly as to the detection of Gram-negative sepsis. Sensitivity was low (<50%) in detecting Staphylococcus epidermidis bacteremia or localized infections. CONCLUSIONS: In this heterogeneous population of critically ill children with suspected infection, a model combining plasma levels of IL-8 and G-CSF identified patients with sepsis. Negative results do not rule out S. epidermidis bacteremia or locally confined infectious processes. The model requires validation in an independent data-set.

Mechanical external work and recovery at preferred walking speed in obese subjects

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare the mechanical external work (per kg) and pendular energy transduction at preferred walking speed (PWS) in obese versus normal body mass subjects to investigate whether obese adults adopt energy conserving gait mechanics. METHODS: The mechanical external work (Wext) and the fraction of mechanical energy recovered by the pendular mechanism (Rstep) were computed using kinematic data acquired by an optoelectronic system and were compared in 30 obese (OG; body mass index [BMI] = 39.6 +/- 0.6 kg m(-2); 29.5 +/- 1.3 yr) and 19 normal body mass adults (NG; BMI = 21.4 +/- 0.5 kg m(-2); 31.2 +/- 1.2 yr) walking at PWS. RESULTS: PWS was significantly lower in OG (1.18 +/- 0.02 m s(-1)) than in NG (1.33 +/- 0.02 m s(-1); P <or= 0.001). There was no significant difference in Wext per unit mass between groups (OG: 0.36 +/- 0.03 J kg(-1) m(-1); NG: 0.31 +/- 0.02 J kg(-1) m(-1); P = 0.12). Rstep was significantly lower in OG (68.4% +/- 2.0%) compared with NG (74.4% +/- 1.0%; P = 0.01). In OG only, Wext per unit mass was positively correlated with PWS (r = 0.57; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Obese adults do not appear to alter their gait to improve pendular energy transduction and may select slower PWS to reduce mechanical and metabolic work.

Coronary heart disease in primary care: accuracy of medical history and physical findings in patients with chest pain - a study protocol for a systematic review with individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care, with coronary heart disease (CHD) being the most concerning of many potential causes. Systematic reviews on the sensitivity and specificity of symptoms and signs summarize the evidence about which of them are most useful in making a diagnosis. Previous meta-analyses are dominated by studies of patients referred to specialists. Moreover, as the analysis is typically based on study-level data, the statistical analyses in these reviews are limited while meta-analyses based on individual patient data can provide additional information. Our patient-level meta-analysis has three unique aims. First, we strive to determine the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for myocardial ischemia in primary care. Second, we investigate associations between study- or patient-level characteristics and measures of diagnostic accuracy. Third, we aim to validate existing clinical prediction rules for diagnosing myocardial ischemia in primary care. This article describes the methods of our study and six prospective studies of primary care patients with chest pain. Later articles will describe the main results. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis of studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing coronary heart disease in primary care. We will perform bivariate analyses to determine the sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios of individual symptoms and signs and multivariate analyses to explore the diagnostic value of an optimal combination of all symptoms and signs based on all data of all studies. We will validate existing clinical prediction rules from each of the included studies by calculating measures of diagnostic accuracy separately by study. DISCUSSION: Our study will face several methodological challenges. First, the number of studies will be limited. Second, the investigators of original studies defined some outcomes and predictors differently. Third, the studies did not collect the same standard clinical data set. Fourth, missing data, varying from partly missing to fully missing, will have to be dealt with.Despite these limitations, we aim to summarize the available evidence regarding the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing CHD in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (University of York): CRD42011001170.

Prognostic accuracy of cerebral blood flow measurement by perfusion computed tomography, at the time of emergency room admission, in acute stroke patients.

The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic accuracy of perfusion computed tomography (CT), performed at the time of emergency room admission, in acute stroke patients. Accuracy was determined by comparison of perfusion CT with delayed magnetic resonance (MR) and by monitoring the evolution of each patient's clinical condition. Twenty-two acute stroke patients underwent perfusion CT covering four contiguous 10mm slices on admission, as well as delayed MR, performed after a median interval of 3 days after emergency room admission. Eight were treated with thrombolytic agents. Infarct size on the admission perfusion CT was compared with that on the delayed diffusion-weighted (DWI)-MR, chosen as the gold standard. Delayed magnetic resonance angiography and perfusion-weighted MR were used to detect recanalization. A potential recuperation ratio, defined as PRR = penumbra size/(penumbra size + infarct size) on the admission perfusion CT, was compared with the evolution in each patient's clinical condition, defined by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). In the 8 cases with arterial recanalization, the size of the cerebral infarct on the delayed DWI-MR was larger than or equal to that of the infarct on the admission perfusion CT, but smaller than or equal to that of the ischemic lesion on the admission perfusion CT; and the observed improvement in the NIHSS correlated with the PRR (correlation coefficient = 0.833). In the 14 cases with persistent arterial occlusion, infarct size on the delayed DWI-MR correlated with ischemic lesion size on the admission perfusion CT (r = 0.958). In all 22 patients, the admission NIHSS correlated with the size of the ischemic area on the admission perfusion CT (r = 0.627). Based on these findings, we conclude that perfusion CT allows the accurate prediction of the final infarct size and the evaluation of clinical prognosis for acute stroke patients at the time of emergency evaluation. It may also provide information about the extent of the penumbra. Perfusion CT could therefore be a valuable tool in the early management of acute stroke patients.