Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Clustering and hot spot detection in socio-economic spatio-temporal data

Distribution of socio-economic features in urban space is an important source of information for land and transportation planning. The metropolization phenomenon has changed the distribution of types of professions in space and has given birth to different spatial patterns that the urban planner must know in order to plan a sustainable city. Such distributions can be discovered by statistical and learning algorithms through different methods. In this paper, an unsupervised classification method and a cluster detection method are discussed and applied to analyze the socio-economic structure of Switzerland. The unsupervised classification method, based on Ward's classification and self-organized maps, is used to classify the municipalities of the country and allows to reduce a highly-dimensional input information to interpret the socio-economic landscape. The cluster detection method, the spatial scan statistics, is used in a more specific manner in order to detect hot spots of certain types of service activities. The method is applied to the distribution services in the agglomeration of Lausanne. Results show the emergence of new centralities and can be analyzed in both transportation and social terms.

Italy's Path to Very Low Fertility : The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

Comparative socio-economic evaluation of IBD patients with and without infliximab maintenance therapy

Background: The anti-TNFα agent Infliximab (IFX) is used for the treatment of moderate to severe inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with insufficient response to conventional immunomodulator therapy. IFX maintenance therapy is expensive and it is unknown if indirect costs (eg. by loss of work productivity) can be reduced by this therapy. Goal: to evaluate the direct and indirect costs of an IBD patient cohort under maintenance IFX compared to a cohort under "conventional" immunomodulator therapy. Methods: Direct and indirect costs of an IBD cohort under IFX and a reference cohort (similar disease activity and location) under conventional immunomodulator therapy (Azathioprine, or 6-MP, or MTX) were retrospectively evaluated over 12 months (January to December 2008). Results: 54 IFX-patients (24f/30m, 37 CD, 10 UC, 7 IC) and 71 non-IFX-patients (38f/33m, 56 CD, 12 UC, 3 IC) were included. IFX patients were younger than non-IFX patients (36 vs. 47 years, P = 0.0003). The mean duration of inpatient stay in hospital (23 in IFX vs. 21 days for non-IFX, P = 0.909) and the hospitalization costs (7,692 in IFX vs. 4,179 SFr for non-IFX, P = 0.4540) did not differ. IFX-patients had significantly more frequently specialist outpatient consultations (8 vs. 4, P < 0.001) and outpatient-related costs (3,633 vs. 2,186 SFr, P <0.001). Total costs for all diagnostic procedures (blood work, endoscopies, radiology) were higher in the IFXcohort (2,265 vs. 1,164 SFr, P < 0.001). Sixty-five percent of IFX-patients had a 100% job employment compared to 80% in the non-IFX cohort (P = 0.001). Conclusions: The direct and indirect costs of maintenance IFX-treated IBD patients are higher compared to IBD patients under conventional immunomodulators. Care should be taken not only to judge the costs as the IFX treated population may represent a cohort with more aggressive disease phenotype, furthermore, quality of life aspects were not assessed.

Etalonnage de trois épreuves de recognition continue : Effets de l'âge, du sexe et du niveau socio-professionnel sur les mesures de discrimination et de biais de réponse. [Standardization of three continuous recognition test forms - Effects of age, sex and socio-economic level on measurements of discrimination and response bias.]

Nous présontons l'étalonnage d'un test mnésique de recognition dans un échantillon de 180 adultes francophones de la Suisse Romande. Le test comprend trois formes utilisant un matériel verbal (mots) ou non verbal (visages ou paysages). Une attention particulière est accordée à l'âge dans la présentation des résultats. Celui-ci affecte plus précocement et plus intensément la performance aux formes non verbales qu'à la forme verbale du test. Il induit également une importante augmentation du nombre de fausses reconnaissances pour les formes non verbales.

Neighbourhood socio-economic position, late presentation and outcomes in people living with HIV in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: Inequalities and inequities in health are an important public health concern. In Switzerland, mortality in the general population varies according to the socio-economic position (SEP) of neighbourhoods. We examined the influence of neighbourhood SEP on presentation and outcomes in HIV-positive individuals in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: The neighbourhood SEP of patients followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) 2000-2013 was obtained on the basis of 2000 census data on the 50 nearest households (education and occupation of household head, rent, mean number of persons per room). We used Cox and logistic regression models to examine the probability of late presentation, virologic response to cART, loss to follow-up and death across quintiles of neighbourhood SEP. RESULTS: A total of 4489 SHCS participants were included. Presentation with advanced disease [CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl or AIDS] and with AIDS was less common in neighbourhoods of higher SEP: the age and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of SEP was 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.58-0.87] and 0.59 (95% CI 0.45-0.77), respectively. An undetectable viral load at 6 months of cART was more common in the highest than in the lowest quintile (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.14-2.04). Loss to follow-up, mortality and causes of death were not associated with neighbourhood SEP. CONCLUSION: Late presentation was more common and virologic response to cART less common in HIV-positive individuals living in neighbourhoods of lower SEP, but in contrast to the general population, there was no clear trend for mortality.

Prevalence of overweight in the Seychelles: 15 year trends and association with socio-economic status.

We assessed the 15-year trends in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and the prevalence of overweight in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African Region) and the relationship with socio-economic status (SES). Three population-based examination surveys were conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Occupation was categorized as 'labourer', 'intermediate' or 'professional'. Education was also assessed in 1994 and 2004. Between 1989 and 2004, mean BMI increased markedly in all sex and age categories (overall: 0.16 kg m(-2) per calendar year, which corresponds to 0.46 kg per calendar year). The prevalence of overweight (including obesity, BMI >or= 25 kg m(-2)) increased from 29% to 52% in men and from 50% to 67% in women. The prevalence of obesity (BMI >or= 30 kg m(-2)) increased from 4% to 15% in men and from 23% to 34% in women. Overweight was associated inversely with occupation in women and directly in men in all surveys. In multivariate analysis, overweight was associated similarly (direction and magnitude) to occupation and education. In conclusion, the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity over time in all age, sex and SES categories suggests large-scale changes in societal obesogenic factors. The sex-specific association of SES with overweight suggests that prevention measures should be tailored accordingly.

Excess winter deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases are associated with both mild winter temperature and socio-economic inequalities in the U.S.

Mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) exhibits seasonal variation. For example, 30% more deaths occurred in winter compared to summer in a multicountry study [1]. The effect of cold temperature on several CVD risk factors and on seasonal influenza infection may partially underlie this seasonal variation [2] and [3]. However an unexplained paradox has been observed: seasonality in CVD mortality is larger in temperate mid-latitude countries (e.g. Portugal) than in colder northern countries (e.g. Scandinavian countries) [1]. This paradox has also been previously observed in Europe for overall mortality, and it may relate to uneven proportions between countries of people who are unable to adequately protect themselves against cold due to low socio-economic status (SES), e.g. inadequate clothing, housing insulation and heating systems [4] and [5]. We hypothesized that the seasonal variability in CVD mortality is larger in low socio-economic U.S. states experiencing mild winters compared to high socio-economic states experiencing cold winters.

Disagreements among cohabiting and married couples in 22 European countries

Background: Cross-national research suggests that married people have higher levels of well-being than cohabiting people. However, relationship quality has both positive and negative dimensions. Researchers have paid little attention to disagreements within cohabiting and married couples. Objective: This study aims to improve our understanding of the meaning of cohabitation by examining disagreements within marital and cohabiting relationships. We examine variations in couples' disagreements about housework, paid work and money by country and gender. Methods: The data come from the 2004 European Social Survey. We selected respondents living in a heterosexual couple relationship and aged between 18 and 45. In total, the study makes use of data from 22 European countries and 9,657 people. Given that our dependent variable was dichotomous, we estimated multilevel logit models, with (1) disagree and (0) never disagree. Results: We find that cohabitors had more disagreements about housework, the same disagreements about money, but fewer disagreements about paid work than did married people. These findings could not be explained by socio-economic or demographic measures, nor did we find gender or cross-country differences in the association between union status and conflict. Conclusions: Cohabiting couples have more disagreements about housework but fewer disagreements about paid work than married people. There are no gender or cross-country differences in these associations. The results provide further evidence that the meaning of cohabitation differs from that of marriage, and that this difference remains consistent across nations.

Contextual determinants of alcohol consumption changes and preventive alcohol policies: a 12-country European study in progress.

Beginning with France in the 1950s, alcohol consumption has decreased in Southern European countries with few or no preventive alcohol policy measures being implemented, while alcohol consumption has been increasing in Northern European countries where historically more restrictive alcohol control policies were in place, even though more recently they were loosened. At the same time, Central and Eastern Europe have shown an intermediate behavior. We propose that country-specific changes in alcohol consumption between 1960 and 2008 are explained by a combination of a number of factors: (1) preventive alcohol policies and (2) social, cultural, economic, and demographic determinants. This article describes the methodology of a research study designed to understand the complex interactions that have occurred throughout Europe over the past five decades. These include changes in alcohol consumption, drinking patterns and alcohol-related harm, and the actual determinants of such changes.

Immunological mechanism of action and clinical profile of disease-modifying treatments in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a life-long, potentially debilitating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). MS is considered to be an immune-mediated disease, and the presence of autoreactive peripheral lymphocytes in CNS compartments is believed to be critical in the process of demyelination and tissue damage in MS. Although MS is not currently a curable disease, several disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are now available, or are in development. These DMTs are all thought to primarily suppress autoimmune activity within the CNS. Each therapy has its own mechanism of action (MoA) and, as a consequence, each has a different efficacy and safety profile. Neurologists can now select therapies on a more individual, patient-tailored basis, with the aim of maximizing potential for long-term efficacy without interruptions in treatment. The MoA and clinical profile of MS therapies are important considerations when making that choice or when switching therapies due to suboptimal disease response. This article therefore reviews the known and putative immunological MoAs alongside a summary of the clinical profile of therapies approved for relapsing forms of MS, and those in late-stage development, based on published data from pivotal randomized, controlled trials.