Budgeting rockfall and modeling sedimentary delivery in torrent systems

This thesis is a compilation of projects to study sediment processes recharging debris flow channels. These works, conducted during my stay at the University of Lausanne, focus in the geological and morphological implications of torrent catchments to characterize debris supply, a fundamental element to predict debris flows. Other aspects of sediment dynamics are considered, e.g. the coupling headwaters - torrent, as well as the development of a modeling software that simulates sediment transfer in torrent systems. The sediment activity at Manival, an active torrent system of the northern French Alps, was investigated using terrestrial laser scanning and supplemented with geostructural investigations and a survey of sediment transferred in the main torrent. A full year of sediment flux could be observed, which coincided with two debris flows and several bedload transport events. This study revealed that both debris flows generated in the torrent and were preceded in time by recharge of material from the headwaters. Debris production occurred mostly during winter - early spring time and was caused by large slope failures. Sediment transfers were more puzzling, occurring almost exclusively in early spring subordinated to runoffconditions and in autumn during long rainfall. Intense rainstorms in summer did not affect debris storage that seems to rely on the stability of debris deposits. The morpho-geological implication in debris supply was evaluated using DEM and field surveys. A slope angle-based classification of topography could characterize the mode of debris production and transfer. A slope stability analysis derived from the structures in rock mass could assess susceptibility to failure. The modeled rockfall source areas included more than 97% of the recorded events and the sediment budgets appeared to be correlated to the density of potential slope failure. This work showed that the analysis of process-related terrain morphology and of susceptibility to slope failure document the sediment dynamics to quantitatively assess erosion zones leading to debris flow activity. The development of erosional landforms was evaluated by analyzing their geometry with the orientations of potential rock slope failure and with the direction of the maximum joint frequency. Structure in rock mass, but in particular wedge failure and the dominant discontinuities, appear as a first-order control of erosional mechanisms affecting bedrock- dominated catchment. They represent some weaknesses that are exploited primarily by mass wasting processes and erosion, promoting not only the initiation of rock couloirs and gullies, but also their propagation. Incorporating the geological control in geomorphic processes contributes to better understand the landscape evolution of active catchments. A sediment flux algorithm was implemented in a sediment cascade model that discretizes the torrent catchment in channel reaches and individual process-response systems. Each conceptual element includes in simple manner geomorphological and sediment flux information derived from GIS complemented with field mapping. This tool enables to simulate sediment transfers in channels considering evolving debris supply and conveyance, and helps reducing the uncertainty inherent to sediment budget prediction in torrent systems. Cette thèse est un recueil de projets d'études des processus de recharges sédimentaires des chenaux torrentiels. Ces travaux, réalisés lorsque j'étais employé à l'Université de Lausanne, se concentrent sur les implications géologiques et morphologiques des bassins dans l'apport de sédiments, élément fondamental dans la prédiction de laves torrentielles. D'autres aspects de dynamique sédimentaire ont été abordés, p. ex. le couplage torrent - bassin, ainsi qu'un modèle de simulation du transfert sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel. L'activité sédimentaire du Manival, un système torrentiel actif des Alpes françaises, a été étudiée par relevés au laser scanner terrestre et complétée par une étude géostructurale ainsi qu'un suivi du transfert en sédiments du torrent. Une année de flux sédimentaire a pu être observée, coïncidant avec deux laves torrentielles et plusieurs phénomènes de charriages. Cette étude a révélé que les laves s'étaient générées dans le torrent et étaient précédées par une recharge de débris depuis les versants. La production de débris s'est passée principalement en l'hiver - début du printemps, causée par de grandes ruptures de pentes. Le transfert était plus étrange, se produisant presque exclusivement au début du printemps subordonné aux conditions d'écoulement et en automne lors de longues pluies. Les orages d'été n'affectèrent guère les dépôts, qui semblent dépendre de leur stabilité. Les implications morpho-géologiques dans l'apport sédimentaire ont été évaluées à l'aide de MNT et études de terrain. Une classification de la topographie basée sur la pente a permis de charactériser le mode de production et transfert. Une analyse de stabilité de pente à partir des structures de roches a permis d'estimer la susceptibilité à la rupture. Les zones sources modélisées comprennent plus de 97% des chutes de blocs observées et les bilans sédimentaires sont corrélés à la densité de ruptures potentielles. Ce travail d'analyses des morphologies du terrain et de susceptibilité à la rupture documente la dynamique sédimentaire pour l'estimation quantitative des zones érosives induisant l'activité torrentielle. Le développement des formes d'érosion a été évalué par l'analyse de leur géométrie avec celle des ruptures potentielles et avec la direction de la fréquence maximale des joints. Les structures de roches, mais en particulier les dièdres et les discontinuités dominantes, semblent être très influents dans les mécanismes d'érosion affectant les bassins rocheux. Ils représentent des zones de faiblesse exploitées en priorité par les processus de démantèlement et d'érosion, encourageant l'initiation de ravines et couloirs, mais aussi leur propagation. L'incorporation du control géologique dans les processus de surface contribue à une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution topographique de bassins actifs. Un algorithme de flux sédimentaire a été implémenté dans un modèle en cascade, lequel divise le bassin en biefs et en systèmes individuels répondant aux processus. Chaque unité inclut de façon simple les informations géomorpologiques et celles du flux sédimentaire dérivées à partir de SIG et de cartographie de terrain. Cet outil permet la simulation des transferts de masse dans les chenaux, considérants la variabilité de l'apport et son transport, et aide à réduire l'incertitude liée à la prédiction de bilans sédimentaires torrentiels. Ce travail vise très humblement d'éclairer quelques aspects de la dynamique sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel.

Environmental data mining and modeling based on machine learning algorithms and geostatistics

The paper presents some contemporary approaches to spatial environmental data analysis. The main topics are concentrated on the decision-oriented problems of environmental spatial data mining and modeling: valorization and representativity of data with the help of exploratory data analysis, spatial predictions, probabilistic and risk mapping, development and application of conditional stochastic simulation models. The innovative part of the paper presents integrated/hybrid model-machine learning (ML) residuals sequential simulations-MLRSS. The models are based on multilayer perceptron and support vector regression ML algorithms used for modeling long-range spatial trends and sequential simulations of the residuals. NIL algorithms deliver non-linear solution for the spatial non-stationary problems, which are difficult for geostatistical approach. Geostatistical tools (variography) are used to characterize performance of ML algorithms, by analyzing quality and quantity of the spatially structured information extracted from data with ML algorithms. Sequential simulations provide efficient assessment of uncertainty and spatial variability. Case study from the Chernobyl fallouts illustrates the performance of the proposed model. It is shown that probability mapping, provided by the combination of ML data driven and geostatistical model based approaches, can be efficiently used in decision-making process. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

An introductory review on gravitational-deformation induced structures, fabrics and modeling

Recent studies have pointed out a similarity between tectonics and slope tectonic-induced structures. Numerous studies have demonstrated that structures and fabrics previously interpreted as of purely geodynamical origin are instead the result of large slope deformation, and this led in the past to erroneous interpretations. Nevertheless, their limit seems not clearly defined, but it is somehow transitional. Some studies point out continuity between failures developing at surface with upper crust movements. In this contribution, the main studies which examine the link between rock structures and slope movements are reviewed. The aspects regarding model and scale of observation are discussed together with the role of pre-existing weaknesses in the rock mass. As slope failures can develop through progressive failure, structures and their changes in time and space can be recognized. Furthermore, recognition of the origin of these structures can help in avoiding misinterpretations of regional geology. This also suggests the importance of integrating different slope movement classifications based on distribution and pattern of deformation and the application of structural geology techniques. A structural geology approach in the landslide community is a tool that can greatly support the hazard quantification and related risks, because most of the physical parameters, which are used for landslide modeling, are derived from geotechnical tests or the emerging geophysical approaches.

The cover basement contact beneath the Rawil axial depression (Western Alps) - True amplitude seismic processing, petrophysical properties, and modeling

Since 1986, several near-vertical seismic reflection profiles have been recorded in Switzerland in order to map the deep geologic structure of the Alps. One objective of this endeavour has been to determine the geometries of the autochthonous basement and of the external crystalline massifs, important elements for understanding the geodynamics of the Alpine orogeny. The PNR-20 seismic line W1, located in the Rawil depression of the western Swiss Alps, provides important information on this subject. It extends northward from the `'Penninic front'' across the Helvetic nappes to the Prealps. The crystalline massifs do not outcrop along this profile. Thus, the interpretation of `'near-basement'' reflections has to be constrained by down-dip projections of surface geology, `'true amplitude'' processing, rock physical property studies and modelling. 3-D seismic modelling has been used to evaluate the seismic response of two alternative down-dip projection models. To constrain the interpretation in the southern part of the profile, `'true amplitude'' processing has provided information on the strength of the reflections. Density and velocity measurements on core samples collected up-dip from the region of the seismic line have been used to evaluate reflection coefficients of typical lithologic boundaries in the region. The cover-basement contact itself is not a source of strong reflections, but strong reflections arise from within the overlaying metasedimentary cover sequence, allowing the geometry of the top of the basement to be determined on the basis of `'near-basement'' reflections. The front of the external crystalline massifs is shown to extend beneath the Prealps, about 6 km north of the expected position. A 2-D model whose seismic response shows reflection patterns very similar to the observed is proposed.

Combined simulation and mutagenesis analyses reveal the involvement of key residues for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha helix 12 dynamic behavior.

The dynamic properties of helix 12 in the ligand binding domain of nuclear receptors are a major determinant of AF-2 domain activity. We investigated the molecular and structural basis of helix 12 mobility, as well as the involvement of individual residues with regard to peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARalpha) constitutive and ligand-dependent transcriptional activity. Functional assays of the activity of PPARalpha helix 12 mutants were combined with free energy molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement between the results from these approaches allows us to make robust claims concerning the mechanisms that govern helix 12 functions. Our data support a model in which PPARalpha helix 12 transiently adopts a relatively stable active conformation even in the absence of a ligand. This conformation provides the interface for the recruitment of a coactivator and results in constitutive activity. The receptor agonists stabilize this conformation and increase PPARalpha transcription activation potential. Finally, we disclose important functions of residues in PPARalpha AF-2, which determine the positioning of helix 12 in the active conformation in the absence of a ligand. Substitution of these residues suppresses PPARalpha constitutive activity, without changing PPARalpha ligand-dependent activation potential.

Machine learning analysis and modeling of interest rate curves

The present research deals with the review of the analysis and modeling of Swiss franc interest rate curves (IRC) by using unsupervised (SOM, Gaussian Mixtures) and supervised machine (MLP) learning algorithms. IRC are considered as objects embedded into different feature spaces: maturities; maturity-date, parameters of Nelson-Siegel model (NSM). Analysis of NSM parameters and their temporal and clustering structures helps to understand the relevance of model and its potential use for the forecasting. Mapping of IRC in a maturity-date feature space is presented and analyzed for the visualization and forecasting purposes.

Modeling stochasticity and robustness in gene regulatory networks.

MOTIVATION: Understanding gene regulation in biological processes and modeling the robustness of underlying regulatory networks is an important problem that is currently being addressed by computational systems biologists. Lately, there has been a renewed interest in Boolean modeling techniques for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). However, due to their deterministic nature, it is often difficult to identify whether these modeling approaches are robust to the addition of stochastic noise that is widespread in gene regulatory processes. Stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs has been addressed relatively sparingly in the past, mainly by flipping the expression of genes between different expression levels with a predefined probability. This stochasticity in nodes (SIN) model leads to over representation of noise in GRNs and hence non-correspondence with biological observations. RESULTS: In this article, we introduce the stochasticity in functions (SIF) model for simulating stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs. By providing biological motivation behind the use of the SIF model and applying it to the T-helper and T-cell activation networks, we show that the SIF model provides more biologically robust results than the existing SIN model of stochasticity in GRNs. AVAILABILITY: Algorithms are made available under our Boolean modeling toolbox, GenYsis. The software binaries can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/ approximately garg/genysis.html.

Orthotropic active strain models for the numerical simulation of cardiac biomechanics

An active strain formulation for orthotropic constitutive laws arising in cardiac mechanics modeling is introduced and studied. The passive mechanical properties of the tissue are described by the Holzapfel-Ogden relation. In the active strain formulation, the Euler-Lagrange equations for minimizing the total energy are written in terms of active and passive deformation factors, where the active part is assumed to depend, at the cell level, on the electrodynamics and on the specific orientation of the cardiac cells. The well-posedness of the linear system derived from a generic Newton iteration of the original problem is analyzed and different mechanical activation functions are considered. In addition, the active strain formulation is compared with the classical active stress formulation from both numerical and modeling perspectives. Taylor-Hood and MINI finite elements are employed to discretize the mechanical problem. The results of several numerical experiments show that the proposed formulation is mathematically consistent and is able to represent the main key features of the phenomenon, while allowing savings in computational costs.

MORM--a Petri net based model for assessing OH&S risks in industrial processes: modeling qualitative aspects.

Because of the increase in workplace automation and the diversification of industrial processes, workplaces have become more and more complex. The classical approaches used to address workplace hazard concerns, such as checklists or sequence models, are, therefore, of limited use in such complex systems. Moreover, because of the multifaceted nature of workplaces, the use of single-oriented methods, such as AEA (man oriented), FMEA (system oriented), or HAZOP (process oriented), is not satisfactory. The use of a dynamic modeling approach in order to allow multiple-oriented analyses may constitute an alternative to overcome this limitation. The qualitative modeling aspects of the MORM (man-machine occupational risk modeling) model are discussed in this article. The model, realized on an object-oriented Petri net tool (CO-OPN), has been developed to simulate and analyze industrial processes in an OH&S perspective. The industrial process is modeled as a set of interconnected subnets (state spaces), which describe its constitutive machines. Process-related factors are introduced, in an explicit way, through machine interconnections and flow properties. While man-machine interactions are modeled as triggering events for the state spaces of the machines, the CREAM cognitive behavior model is used in order to establish the relevant triggering events. In the CO-OPN formalism, the model is expressed as a set of interconnected CO-OPN objects defined over data types expressing the measure attached to the flow of entities transiting through the machines. Constraints on the measures assigned to these entities are used to determine the state changes in each machine. Interconnecting machines implies the composition of such flow and consequently the interconnection of the measure constraints. This is reflected by the construction of constraint enrichment hierarchies, which can be used for simulation and analysis optimization in a clear mathematical framework. The use of Petri nets to perform multiple-oriented analysis opens perspectives in the field of industrial risk management. It may significantly reduce the duration of the assessment process. But, most of all, it opens perspectives in the field of risk comparisons and integrated risk management. Moreover, because of the generic nature of the model and tool used, the same concepts and patterns may be used to model a wide range of systems and application fields.

Toward on-the-fly quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) docking: development and benchmark of a scoring function.

We address the challenges of treating polarization and covalent interactions in docking by developing a hybrid quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) scoring function based on the semiempirical self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding (SCC-DFTB) method and the CHARMM force field. To benchmark this scoring function within the EADock DSS docking algorithm, we created a publicly available dataset of high-quality X-ray structures of zinc metalloproteins ( http://www.molecular-modelling.ch/resources.php ). For zinc-bound ligands (226 complexes), the QM/MM scoring yielded a substantially improved success rate compared to the classical scoring function (77.0% vs 61.5%), while, for allosteric ligands (55 complexes), the success rate remained constant (49.1%). The QM/MM scoring significantly improved the detection of correct zinc-binding geometries and improved the docking success rate by more than 20% for several important drug targets. The performance of both the classical and the QM/MM scoring functions compare favorably to the performance of AutoDock4, AutoDock4Zn, and AutoDock Vina.

Structural and functional interaction sites between Na,K-ATPase and FXYD proteins.

Several members of the FXYD protein family are tissue-specific regulators of Na,K-ATPase that produce distinct effects on its apparent K(+) and Na(+) affinity. Little is known about the interaction sites between the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit and FXYD proteins that mediate the efficient association and/or the functional effects of FXYD proteins. In this study, we have analyzed the role of the transmembrane segment TM9 of the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit in the structural and functional interaction with FXYD2, FXYD4, and FXYD7. Mutational analysis combined with expression in Xenopus oocytes reveals that Phe(956), Glu(960), Leu(964), and Phe(967) in TM9 of the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit represent one face interacting with the three FXYD proteins. Leu(964) and Phe(967) contribute to the efficient association of FXYD proteins with the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit, whereas Phe(956) and Glu(960) are essential for the transmission of the functional effect of FXYD proteins on the apparent K(+) affinity of Na,K-ATPase. The relative contribution of Phe(956) and Glu(960) to the K(+) effect differs for different FXYD proteins, probably reflecting the intrinsic differences of FXYD proteins on the apparent K(+) affinity of Na,K-ATPase. In contrast to the effect on the apparent K(+) affinity, Phe(956) and Glu(960) are not involved in the effect of FXYD2 and FXYD4 on the apparent Na(+) affinity of Na,K-ATPase. The mutational analysis is in good agreement with a docking model of the Na,K-ATPase/FXYD7 complex, which also predicts the importance of Phe(956), Glu(960), Leu(964), and Phe(967) in subunit interaction. In conclusion, by using mutational analysis and modeling, we show that TM9 of the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit exposes one face of the helix that interacts with FXYD proteins and contributes to the stable interaction with FXYD proteins, as well as mediating the effect of FXYD proteins on the apparent K(+) affinity of Na,K-ATPase.

Artificial Snow Optimization in Winter Sport Destinations Using a Multi-agent Simulation

This paper presents the Juste-Neige system for predicting the snow height on the ski runs of a resort using a multi-agent simulation software. Its aim is to facilitate snow cover management in order to i) reduce the production cost of artificial snow and to improve the profit margin for the companies managing the ski resorts; and ii) to reduce the water and energy consumption, and thus to reduce the environmental impact, by producing only the snow needed for a good skiing experience. The software provides maps with the predicted snow heights for up to 13 days. On these maps, the areas most exposed to snow erosion are highlighted. The software proceeds in three steps: i) interpolation of snow height measurements with a neural network; ii) local meteorological forecasts for every ski resort; iii) simulation of the impact caused by skiers using a multi-agent system. The software has been evaluated in the Swiss ski resort of Verbier and provides useful predictions.