Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

Associations of short-term particle and noise exposures with markers of cardiovascular and respiratory health among highway maintenance workers

BACKGROUND: Highway maintenance workers are constantly and simultaneously exposed to traffic-related particle and noise emissions, and both have been linked to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in population-based epidemiology studies. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate short-term health effects related to particle and noise exposure. METHODS: We monitored 18 maintenance workers, during as many as five 24-hour periods from a total of 50 observation days. We measured their exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ultrafine particles, noise, and the cardiopulmonary health endpoints: blood pressure, pro-inflammatory and pro-thrombotic markers in the blood, lung function and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measured approximately 15 hours post-work. Heart rate variability was assessed during a sleep period approximately 10 hours post-work. RESULTS: PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A, and negatively associated with tumor necrosis factor α. None of the particle metrics were significantly associated with von Willebrand factor or tissue factor expression. PM2.5 and work noise were associated with markers of increased heart rate variability, and with increased HF and LF power. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure on the following morning were significantly associated with noise exposure after work, and non-significantly associated with PM2.5. We observed no significant associations between any of the exposures and lung function or FeNO. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that exposure to particles and noise during highway maintenance work might pose a cardiovascular health risk. Actions to reduce these exposures could lead to better health for this population of workers.

Diagnostic yield of short-term video-EEG monitoring for epilepsy and PNESs: a European assessment.

INTRODUCTION: Although long-term video-EEG monitoring (LVEM) is routinely used to investigate paroxysmal events, short-term video-EEG monitoring (SVEM) lasting <24 h is increasingly recognized as a cost-effective tool. Since, however, relatively few studies addressed the yield of SVEM among different diagnostic groups, we undertook the present study to investigate this aspect. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 226 consecutive SVEM recordings over 6 years. All patients were referred because routine EEGs were inconclusive. Patients were classified into 3 suspected diagnostic groups: (1) group with epileptic seizures, (2) group with psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNESs), and (3) group with other or undetermined diagnoses. We assessed recording lengths, interictal epileptiform discharges, epileptic seizures, PNESs, and the definitive diagnoses obtained after SVEM. RESULTS: The mean age was 34 (±18.7) years, and the median recording length was 18.6 h. Among the 226 patients, 127 referred for suspected epilepsy - 73 had a diagnosis of epilepsy, none had a diagnosis of PNESs, and 54 had other or undetermined diagnoses post-SVEM. Of the 24 patients with pre-SVEM suspected PNESs, 1 had epilepsy, 12 had PNESs, and 11 had other or undetermined diagnoses. Of the 75 patients with other diagnoses pre-SVEM, 17 had epilepsy, 11 had PNESs, and 47 had other or undetermined diagnoses. After SVEM, 15 patients had definite diagnoses other than epilepsy or PNESs, while in 96 patients, diagnosis remained unclear. Overall, a definitive diagnosis could be reached in 129/226 (57%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that in nearly 3/5 patients without a definitive diagnosis after routine EEG, SVEM allowed us to reach a diagnosis. This procedure should be encouraged in this setting, given its time-effectiveness compared with LVEM.

Phylogeographical footprints of the Strait of Gibraltar and Quaternary climatic fluctuations in the western Mediterranean: a case study with the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula (Mammalia: Soricidae).

We used mitochondrial cyt b sequences to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Crocidura russula (sensu lato) populations across the Strait of Gibraltar, western Europe, Maghreb, and the Mediterranean and Atlantic islands. This revealed very low genetic divergence between European and Moroccan populations. The application of a molecular clock previously calibrated for shrews suggested that the separation of European from Moroccan lineages occurred less than 60 000 bp, which is at least 5 million years (Myr) after the reopening of the Strait of Gibraltar. This means that an overwater dispersal event was responsible for the observed phylogeographical structure. In contrast, genetic analyses revealed that Moroccan populations were highly distinct from Tunisian ones. According to the molecular clock, these populations separated about 2.2 million years ago (Ma), a time marked by sharp alternations of dry and humid climates in the Maghreb. The populations of the Mediterranean islands Ibiza, Pantelleria, and Sardinia were founded from Tunisian populations by overwater dispersal. In conclusion, overwater dispersal across the Strait of Gibraltar, probably assisted by humans, is possible for small terrestrial vertebrates. Moreover, as in Europe, Quaternary climatic fluctuations had a major effect on the phylogeographical structure of the Maghreb biota.

Alliance evolutions over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: A case study

Background: Alliance evolutions, i.e. ruptures and resolutions over the course of psychotherapy, have been shown to be important descriptive features in different forms of psychotherapy, and in particular in psychodynamic psychotherapy. This case study of a client presenting elements of adjustment disorder undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy is drawn from a systematic naturalistic study and aims at illustrating, on a session-by-session-level, the processes of alliance ruptures and resolutions, by comparing both the client's and the therapist's perspectives. Method: Two episodes of alliance evolution were more fully studied, in relation to the evolution of transference, as well as the client's defensive functioning and core conflictual theme. These concepts were measured by means of valid, reliable observer-rater methods, based on session transcripts: the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS) for defensive functioning and the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) for the conflicts. Alliance was measured after each session using the Helping Alliance questionnaire (HAq-II). Results: The results indicated that these episodes of alliance rupture and resolutions may be understood as key moments of the whole therapeutic process reflecting the client's main relationship stakes. Illustrations are provided based on the client's in-session processes and related to the alliance development over the course of the entire therapy.

The evolution of inbred social systems in spiders and other organisms: from short-term gains to long-term evolutionary dead-ends?

The question of why some social systems have evolved close inbreeding is particularly intriguing given expected short- and long-term negative effects of this breeding system. Using social spiders as a case study, we quantitatively show that the potential costs of avoiding inbreeding through dispersal and solitary living could have outweighed the costs of inbreeding depression in the origin of inbred spider sociality. We further review the evidence that despite being favored in the short term, inbred spider sociality may constitute in the long run an evolutionary dead end. We also review other cases, such as the naked mole rats and some bark and ambrosia beetles, mites, psocids, thrips, parasitic ants, and termites, in which inbreeding and sociality are associated and the evidence for and against this breeding system being, in general, an evolutionary dead end.

As the world turns: short-term human spatial memory in egocentric and allocentric coordinates

We aimed to determine whether human subjects' reliance on different sources of spatial information encoded in different frames of reference (i.e., egocentric versus allocentric) affects their performance, decision time and memory capacity in a short-term spatial memory task performed in the real world. Subjects were asked to play the Memory game (a.k.a. the Concentration game) without an opponent, in four different conditions that controlled for the subjects' reliance on egocentric and/or allocentric frames of reference for the elaboration of a spatial representation of the image locations enabling maximal efficiency. We report experimental data from young adult men and women, and describe a mathematical model to estimate human short-term spatial memory capacity. We found that short-term spatial memory capacity was greatest when an egocentric spatial frame of reference enabled subjects to encode and remember the image locations. However, when egocentric information was not reliable, short-term spatial memory capacity was greater and decision time shorter when an allocentric representation of the image locations with respect to distant objects in the surrounding environment was available, as compared to when only a spatial representation encoding the relationships between the individual images, independent of the surrounding environment, was available. Our findings thus further demonstrate that changes in viewpoint produced by the movement of images placed in front of a stationary subject is not equivalent to the movement of the subject around stationary images. We discuss possible limitations of classical neuropsychological and virtual reality experiments of spatial memory, which typically restrict the sensory information normally available to human subjects in the real world.

Does previous hip arthroscopy negatively influence the short term clinical result of total hip replacement?

INTRODUCTION: The risk that hip preserving surgery may negatively influence the performance and outcome of subsequent total hip replacement (THR) remains a concern. The aim of this study was to identify any negative impact of previous hip arthroscopy on THR. METHODS: Out of 1271 consecutive patients who underwent primary THR between 2005 and 2009, 18 had previously undergone ipsilateral hip arthroscopy. This study group (STG) was compared with two control groups (CG, same approach, identical implants; MCG, paired group matched for age, BMI and Charnley categories). Operative time, blood loss, evidence of heterotopic bone and implant loosening at follow-up were compared between the STG and the MCG. Follow-up WOMAC were compared between the three groups. RESULTS: Blood loss was not found to be significantly different between the STG and MCG. The operative time was significantly less (p < 0.001) in the STG. There was no significant difference in follow-up WOMAC between the groups. No implant related complications were noted in follow-up radiographs. Two minor complications were documented for the STG and three for the MCG. CONCLUSION: We have found no evidence that previous hip arthroscopy negatively influences the performance or short-term clinical outcome of THR.

Short term evolution of a highly transmissible methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus clone (ST228) in a tertiary care hospital.

Staphylococcus aureus is recognized as one of the major human pathogens and is by far one of the most common nosocomial organisms. The genetic basis for the emergence of highly epidemic strains remains mysterious. Studying the microevolution of the different clones of S. aureus is essential for identifying the forces driving pathogen emergence and spread. The aim of the present study was to determine the genetic changes characterizing a lineage belonging to the South German clone (ST228) that spread over ten years in a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. For this reason, we compared the whole genome of eight isolates recovered between 2001 and 2008 at the Lausanne hospital. The genetic comparison of these isolates revealed that their genomes are extremely closely related. Yet, a few more important genetic changes, such as the replacement of a plasmid, the loss of large fragments of DNA, or the insertion of transposases, were observed. These transfers of mobile genetic elements shaped the evolution of the ST228 lineage that spread within the Lausanne hospital. Nevertheless, although the strains analyzed differed in their dynamics, we have not been able to link a particular genetic element with spreading success. Finally, the present study showed that new sequencing technologies improve considerably the quality and quantity of information obtained for a single strain; but this information is still difficult to interpret and important investments are required for the technology to become accessible for routine investigations.

Solid phase microextraction as a short-term sampling technique for BTEX occupational exposure

Solid phase microextraction (SPME) has been widely used for many years in various applications, such as environmental and water samples, food and fragrance analysis, or biological fluids. The aim of this study was to suggest the SPME method as an alternative to conventional techniques used in the evaluation of worker exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX). Polymethylsiloxane-carboxen (PDMS/CAR) showed as the most effective stationary phase material for sorbing BTEX among other materials (polyacrylate, PDMS, PDMS/divinylbenzene, Carbowax/divinylbenzene). Various experimental conditions were studied to apply SPME to BTEX quantitation in field situations. The uptake rate of the selected fiber (75 microm PDMS/CAR) was determined for each analyte at various concentrations, relative humidities, and airflow velocities from static (calm air) to dynamic (> 200 cm/s) conditions. The SPME method also was compared with the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health method 1501. Unlike the latter, the SPME approach fulfills the new requirement for the threshold limit value-short term exposure limit (TLV-STEL) of 2.5 ppm for benzene (8 mg/m(3))

The effect of thrombolysis on short-term improvement depends on initial stroke severity.

A large number of parameters have been identified as predictors of early outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. In the present work we analyzed a wide range of demographic, metabolic, physiological, clinical, laboratory and neuroimaging parameters in a large population of consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke with the aim of identifying independent predictors of the early clinical course. We used prospectively collected data from the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne. All consecutive patients with ischemic stroke admitted to our stroke unit and/or intensive care unit between 1 January 2003 and 12 December 2008 within 24 h after last-well time were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify significant associations with the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at admission and 24 h later. We also sought any interactions between the identified predictors. Of the 1,730 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke who were included in the analysis, 260 (15.0%) were thrombolyzed (mostly intravenously) within the recommended time window. In multivariate analysis, the NIHSS score at 24 h after admission was associated with the NIHSS score at admission (β = 1, p < 0.001), initial glucose level (β = 0.05, p < 0.002) and thrombolytic intervention (β = -2.91, p < 0.001). There was a significant interaction between thrombolysis and the NIHSS score at admission (p < 0.001), indicating that the short-term effect of thrombolysis decreases with increasing initial stroke severity. Thrombolytic treatment, lower initial glucose level and lower initial stroke severity predict a favorable early clinical course. The short-term effect of thrombolysis appears mainly in minor and moderate strokes, and decreases with increasing initial stroke severity.

A randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness of a Computer-Assisted Cognitive Remediation (CACR) program in adolescents with psychosis or at high risk of psychosis: Short term and long term outcomes

The present study investigates the short- and long-term outcomes of a computer-assisted cognitive remediation (CACR) program in adolescents with psychosis or at high risk. 32 adolescents participated in a blinded 8-week randomized controlled trial of CACR treatment compared to computer games (CG). Clinical and neuropsychological evaluations were undertaken at baseline, at the end of the program and at 6-month. At the end of the program (n = 28), results indicated that visuospatial abilities (Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status, RBANS; P = .005) improved signifi cantly more in the CACR group compared to the CG group. Furthermore, other cognitive functions (RBANS), psychotic symptoms (Positive and Negative Symptom Scale) and psychosocial functioning (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale) improved signifi cantly, but at similar rates, in the two groups. At long term (n = 22), cognitive abilities did not demonstrated any amelioration in the control group while, in the CACR group, signifi cant long-term improvements in inhibition (Stroop; P = .040) and reasoning (Block Design Test; P = .005) were observed. In addition, symptom severity (Clinical Global Improvement) decreased signifi cantly in the control group (P = .046) and marginally in the CACR group (P = .088). To sum up, CACR can be successfully administered in this population. CACR proved to be effective over and above CG for the most intensively trained cognitive ability. Finally, on the long-term, enhanced reasoning and inhibition abilities, which are necessary to execute higher-order goals or to adapt behavior to the ever-changing environment, were observed in adolescents benefi ting from a CACR.

Does metabolic compensation explain the majority of less-than-expected weight loss in obese adults during a short-term severe diet and exercise intervention?

Objective:We investigated to what extent changes in metabolic rate and composition of weight loss explained the less-than-expected weight loss in obese men and women during a diet-plus-exercise intervention.Design:In all, 16 obese men and women (41±9 years; body mass index (BMI) 39±6 kg m(-2)) were investigated in energy balance before, after and twice during a 12-week very-low-energy diet(565-650 kcal per day) plus exercise (aerobic plus resistance training) intervention. The relative energy deficit (EDef) from baseline requirements was severe (74%-87%). Body composition was measured by deuterium dilution and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, and resting metabolic rate (RMR) was measured by indirect calorimetry. Fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) were converted into energy equivalents using constants 9.45 kcal per g FM and 1.13 kcal per g FFM. Predicted weight loss was calculated from the EDef using the '7700 kcal kg(-1) rule'.Results:Changes in weight (-18.6±5.0 kg), FM (-15.5±4.3 kg) and FFM (-3.1±1.9 kg) did not differ between genders. Measured weight loss was on average 67% of the predicted value, but ranged from 39% to 94%. Relative EDef was correlated with the decrease in RMR (R=0.70, P<0.01), and the decrease in RMR correlated with the difference between actual and expected weight loss (R=0.51, P<0.01). Changes in metabolic rate explained on average 67% of the less-than-expected weight loss, and variability in the proportion of weight lost as FM accounted for a further 5%. On average, after adjustment for changes in metabolic rate and body composition of weight lost, actual weight loss reached 90% of the predicted values.Conclusion:Although weight loss was 33% lower than predicted at baseline from standard energy equivalents, the majority of this differential was explained by physiological variables. Although lower-than-expected weight loss is often attributed to incomplete adherence to prescribed interventions, the influence of baseline calculation errors and metabolic downregulation should not be discounted.

Are there positive emotions in short-term dynamic psychotherapy or is it all Freude-less ?

Psychodynamic therapists are often suspicious of positive emotions and consider them to be nothing more than a form of denial or of another defense aiming to diminish painful or difficult affects. Positive emotions seem to exist only through the absence of negative emotions or as something that may happen outside of therapy. On the other hand, clinicians also agree that psychoanalytic work could not be successful without such positive emotions as interest, pleasure, surprise and creativity. Contemporary psychoanalytic thinking and new research findings in the area of relationship regulation are likely to give positive emotions an increasingly prominent place in dynamically oriented therapies. With today's emphasis on the therapeutic relationship and intersubjectivity, the time appears right to integrate positive emotions more formally into psychodynamic clinical theories.