Divergent and narrower climatic niches characterize polyploid species of European primroses in Primula sect. Aleuritia

Aim It is hypothesized that the ecological niches of polyploids should be both distinct and broader than those of diploids - characteristics that might have allowed the successful colonization of open habitats by polyploids during the Pleistocene glacial cycles. Here, we test these hypotheses by quantifying and comparing the ecological niches and niche breadths of a group of European primroses. Location Europe. Methods We gathered georeferenced data of four related species in Primula sect. Aleuritia at different ploidy levels (diploid, tetraploid, hexaploid and octoploid) and used seven bioclimatic variables to quantify niche overlap between species by applying a series of univariate and multivariate analyses combined with modelling techniques. We also employed permutation-based tests to evaluate niche similarity between the four species. Niche breadth for each species was evaluated both in the multivariate environmental space and in geographical space. Results The four species differed significantly from each other in mono-dimensional comparisons of climatological variables and occupied distinct habitats in the multi-dimensional environmental space. The majority of the permutation-based tests either indicated that the four species differed significantly in their habitat preferences and ecological niches or did not support significant niche similarity. Furthermore, our results revealed narrower niche breadths and geographical ranges in species of P. sect. Aleuritia at higher ploidy levels. Main conclusions The detected ecological differentiation between the four species of P. sect. Aleuritia at different ploidy levels is consistent with the hypothesis that polyploids occupy distinct ecological niches that differ from those of their diploid relative. Contrary to expectations, we find that polyploid species of P. sect. Aleuritia occupy narrower environmental and geographical spaces than their diploid relative. These results on the ecological niches of closely related polyploid and diploid species highlight factors that potentially contribute to the evolution and distribution of polyploid species.

Phylogeny and biogeography of Primula sect. Armerina: implications for plant evolution under climate change and the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

BACKGROUND: The historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes of mountain areas have been suggested to partly account for the occurrence of high levels of biodiversity and endemism. However, their effects on dispersal, differentiation and evolution of many groups of plants are still unknown. In this study, we examined the detailed diversification history of Primula sect. Armerina, and used biogeographic analysis and macro-evolutionary modeling to investigate a series of different questions concerning the evolution of the geographical and ecological distribution of the species in this section. RESULTS: We sequenced five chloroplast and one nuclear genes for species of Primula sect. Armerina. Neither chloroplast nor nuclear trees support the monophyly of the section. The major incongruences between the two trees occur among closely related species and may be explained by hybridization. Our dating analyses based on the chloroplast dataset suggest that this section began to diverge from its relatives around 3.55 million years ago, largely coinciding with the last major uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Biogeographic analysis supports the origin of the section in the Himalayan Mountains and dispersal from the Himalayas to Northeastern QTP, Western QTP and Hengduan Mountains. Furthermore, evolutionary models of ecological niches show that the two P. fasciculata clades have significantly different climatic niche optima and rates of niche evolution, indicating niche evolution under climatic changes and further providing evidence for explaining their biogeographic patterns. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that geologic and climatic events play important roles in driving biological diversification of organisms in the QTP area. The Pliocene uplift of the QTP and following climatic changes most likely promoted both the inter- and intraspecific divergence of Primula sect. Armerina. This study also illustrates how niche evolution under climatic changes influences biogeographic patterns.

Croire ensemble. Analyse institutionnelle du paysage religieux en Suisse

L'étude présentée dans cet ouvrage offre pour la première fois en Suisse une perspective sociologique empirique et générale sur les organisations religieuses locales. Vu sous cet angle, le fait religieux se manifeste d'abord, comme le précisaient déjà Weber ou Durkheim, par l'existence de communautés de tailles et de profils divers, tant dans l'espace rural qu'urbain. En Suisse, 5'734 paroisses et groupes religieux ont pu être dénombrés en 2008. Ce recensement permet de souligner la prégnance institutionnelle des Eglises historiques, mais également l'émergence d'une plus forte pluralité religieuse, particulièrement en milieu urbain. La sociologie des organisations que propose cette étude permet de jeter un éclairage nouveau sur les effets de la sécularisation (baisse des membres et de la pratique) et de la pluralisation (diversification des confessions et traditions religieuses). L'analyse des différences et des similitudes organisationnelles selon les traditions religieuses fait apparaître un positionnement social des groupes en fonction de statuts acquis au cours de l'histoire. Les théories classiques - par exemple à pro- pos des relations entre statuts sociaux des membres et groupes d'appartenance, des types d'autorités religieuses ou encore des différences entre Eglise et Secte - sont revisitées, précisées ou reformulées grâce à des données quantitatives originales et représentatives du champ religieux suisse. -- The study presented in this book for the first time in Switzerland offers a broad empirical and sociological perspective on local religious organizations. From this perspective, religion appears first, as already observed by Weber and Durkheim, through communities regardless of their various profiles. In Switzerland, 5,734 parishes and religious groups have been identified by a national census in 2008. The book underlines the institutional salience of historical churches (Reformed and Roman Catholic) but also the emerging religious plurality, particularly in urban areas. This study sheds a new light upon the effects of secularization (lower limbs and practice) and pluralisation (diversification of religious denominations and traditions) in the organizational field. The analysis of differences and similarities between religious traditions shows a social positioning of the local groups according to the statutes acquired in history. The classical theories − e.g. about the relationship between social status of members and membership groups, types of religious authorities or differences between Church and Sect − are revisited, clarified or reformulated based on an original and representative quantitative data of the Swiss religious field.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Acting, predicting and intervening in a socio-hydrological world

This paper asks a simple question: if humans and their actions co-evolve with hydrological systems (Sivapalan et al., 2012), what is the role of hydrological scientists, who are also humans, within this system? To put it more directly, as traditionally there is a supposed separation of scientists and society, can we maintain this separation as socio-hydrologists studying a socio-hydrological world? This paper argues that we cannot, using four linked sections. The first section draws directly upon the concern of science-technology studies to make a case to the (socio-hydrological) community that we need to be sensitive to constructivist accounts of science in general and socio-hydrology in particular. I review three positions taken by such accounts and apply them to hydrological science, supported with specific examples: (a) the ways in which scientific activities frame socio-hydrological research, such that at least some of the knowledge that we obtain is constructed by precisely what we do; (b) the need to attend to how socio-hydrological knowledge is used in decision-making, as evidence suggests that hydrological knowledge does not flow simply from science into policy; and (c) the observation that those who do not normally label themselves as socio-hydrologists may actually have a profound knowledge of socio-hydrology. The second section provides an empirical basis for considering these three issues by detailing the history of the practice of roughness parameterisation, using parameters like Manning's n, in hydrological and hydraulic models for flood inundation mapping. This history sustains the third section that is a more general consideration of one type of socio-hydrological practice: predictive modelling. I show that as part of a socio-hydrological analysis, hydrological prediction needs to be thought through much more carefully: not only because hydrological prediction exists to help inform decisions that are made about water management; but also because those predictions contain assumptions, the predictions are only correct in so far as those assumptions hold, and for those assumptions to hold, the socio-hydrological system (i.e. the world) has to be shaped so as to include them. Here, I add to the ``normal'' view that ideally our models should represent the world around us, to argue that for our models (and hence our predictions) to be valid, we have to make the world look like our models. Decisions over how the world is modelled may transform the world as much as they represent the world. Thus, socio-hydrological modelling has to become a socially accountable process such that the world is transformed, through the implications of modelling, in a fair and just manner. This leads into the final section of the paper where I consider how socio-hydrological research may be made more socially accountable, in a way that is both sensitive to the constructivist critique (Sect. 1), but which retains the contribution that hydrologists might make to socio-hydrological studies. This includes (1) working with conflict and controversy in hydrological science, rather than trying to eliminate them; (2) using hydrological events to avoid becoming locked into our own frames of explanation and prediction; (3) being empirical and experimental but in a socio-hydrological sense; and (4) co-producing socio-hydrological predictions. I will show how this might be done through a project that specifically developed predictive models for making interventions in river catchments to increase high river flow attenuation. Therein, I found myself becoming detached from my normal disciplinary networks and attached to the co-production of a predictive hydrological model with communities normally excluded from the practice of hydrological science.