Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Long-term and long-range migration of radioactive fallout in a Karst system.

Mountainous areas are often covered by little evolved soils from which deposited radionuclides can potentially leak into the vadose zone. In the Swiss Jura mountains, we observed unusual isotopic ratios of nuclear weapon test (NWTs) fallout with an apparent loss of NWTs plutonium relative to &supl;³⁷Cs of Chernobyl origin in thinner soils. Here, we studied the karstic watershed of a vauclusian spring to determine the residence times of plutonium, ²⁴&supl;Am, and ⁹⁰Sr deposited by global fallout and their respective mobility in carbonaceous soils. The results show that ⁹⁰Sr is washed most efficiently from the watershed with a residence time of several hundred years. The estimated plutonium residence time is more than 10 times higher (in the range of 5000-10,000 years), and the ²⁴&supl;Am residence time is double that of plutonium. The spring water ²⁴&supl;Am/²³⁹+²⁴⁰Pu isotopic ratio is lower (0.12 - 0.28) than found in watershed soils (0.382 ± 0.077). Similar differences are found in aquatic mosses (²⁴&supl;Am/²³⁹+²⁴⁰Pu isotopic ratio 0.05-0.12), which are permanently submerged in spring waters. In contrast to plutonium, ⁹⁰Sr is leached from these mosses with 0.5M HCl, demonstrating that strontium is probably associated with calcium carbonate precipitations on the mosses. The higher plutonium to americium isotopic ratio found in the samples of spring water and mosses at the outlet of the karst shows that plutonium mobility is enhanced.

Remediation of a marine shore tailings deposit and the importance of water-rock interaction on element cycling in the coastal aquifer

We present the study of the geochemical processes associated with the first successful remediation of a marine shore tailings deposit in a coastal desert environment (Bahia de Ite, in the Atacama Desert of Peru). The remediation approach implemented a wetland on top of the oxidized tailings. The site is characterized by a high hydrauliz gradient produced by agricultural irrigation on upstream gravel terraces that pushed river water (similar to 500 mg/L SO(4)) toward the sea and through the tailings deposit. The geochemical and isotopic (delta(2)H(water) and delta(18)O(water), delta(34)S(sulfate) , delta(18)O(sulfate)) approach applied here revealed that evaporite horizons (anhydrite and halite) in the gravel terraces are the source of increased concentrations of SO(4), Cl, and Na up to similar to 1500 mg/L in the springs at the base of the gravel terraces. Deeper groundwater interacting with underlying marine sequences increased the concentrations of SO(4), Cl, and Na up to 6000 mg/L and increased the alkalinity up to 923 mg/L CaCO(3) eq. in the coastal aquifer. These waters infiltrated into the tailings deposit at the shelf-tailings interface. Nonremediated tailings had a low-pH oxidation zone (pH 1-4) with significant accumulations of efflorescent salts (10-20 cm thick) at the surface because of upward capillary transport of metal cations in the arid climate. Remediated tailings were characterized by neutral pH and reducing conditions (pH similar to 7, Eh similar to 100 mV). As a result, most bivalent metals such as Cu, Zn, and Ni had very low concentrations (around 0.01 mg/L or below detection limit) because of reduction and sorption processes. In contrast, these reducing conditions increased the mobility of iron from two sources in this system: (1) The originally Fe(III)-rich oxidation zone, where Fe(II) was reduced during the remediation process and formed an Fe(II) plume, and (2) reductive dissolution of Fe(III) oxides present in the original shelf lithology formed an Fe-Mn plume at 10-m depth. These two Fe-rich plumes were pushed toward the shoreline where more oxidizing and higher pH conditions triggered the precipitation of Fe(HI)hydroxide coatings on silicates. These coatings acted as a filter for the arsenic, which naturally infiltrated with the river water (similar to 500 mu g/L As natural background) into the tailings deposit.

Supporting interdisciplinary case studies: development and implementation of a joint learning environment for students in forensic science and criminal law

Scientific reporting and communication is a challenging topic for which traditional study programs do not offer structured learning activities on a regular basis. This paper reports on the development and implementation of a web application and associated learning activities that intend to raise the awareness of reporting and communication issues among students in forensic science and law. The project covers interdisciplinary case studies based on a library of written reports about forensic examinations. Special features of the web framework, in particular a report annotation tool, support the design of various individual and group learning activities that focus on the development of knowledge and competence in dealing with reporting and communication challenges in the students' future areas of professional activity.

Dustiness and deagglomeration testing: interlaboratory comparison of systems for nanoparticle powders

Different types of aerosolization and deagglomeration testing systems exist for studying the properties of nanomaterial powders and their aerosols. However, results are dependent on the specific methods used. In order to have well-characterized aerosols, we require a better understanding of how system parameters and testing conditions influence the properties of the aerosols generated. In the present study, four experimental setups delivering different aerosolization energies were used to test the resultant aerosols of two distinct nanomaterials (hydrophobic and hydrophilic TiO2). The reproducibility of results within each system was good. However, the number concentrations and size distributions of the aerosols created varied across the four systems; for number concentrations, e.g., from 10(3) to 10(6) #/cm(3). Moreover, distinct differences were also observed between the two materials with different surface coatings. The article discusses how system characteristics and other pertinent conditions modify the test results. We propose using air velocity as a suitable proxy for estimating energy input levels in aerosolization systems. The information derived from this work will be especially useful for establishing standard operating procedures for testing nanopowders, as well as for estimating their release rates under different energy input conditions, which is relevant for occupational exposure.