Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Les traces de pneumatiques en sciences forensiques : de l'analyse chimique à l'évaluation de la force probante

This work is focused on the development of a methodology for the use of chemical characteristic of tire traces to help answer the following question: "Is the offending tire at the origin of the trace found on the crime scene?". This methodology goes from the trace sampling on the road to statistical analysis of its chemical characteristics. Knowledge about the composition and manufacture of tread tires as well as a review of instrumental techniques used for the analysis of polymeric materials were studied to select, as an ansi vi cal technique for this research, pyrolysis coupled to a gas Chromatograph with a mass spectrometry detector (Py-GC/MS). An analytical method was developed and optimized to obtain the lowest variability between replicates of the same sample. Within-variability of the tread was evaluated regarding width and circumference with several samples taken from twelve tires of different brands and/or models. The variability within each of the treads (within-variability) and between the treads (between-variability) could be quantified. Different statistical methods have shown that within-variability is lower than between-variability, which helped differentiate these tires. Ten tire traces were produced with tires of different brands and/or models by braking tests. These traces have been adequately sampled using sheets of gelatine. Particles of each trace were analysed using the same methodology as for the tires at their origin. The general chemical profile of a trace or of a tire has been characterized by eighty-six compounds. Based on a statistical comparison of the chemical profiles obtained, it has been shown that a tire trace is not differentiable from the tire at its origin but is generally differentiable from tires that are not at its origin. Thereafter, a sample containing sixty tires was analysed to assess the discrimination potential of the developed methodology. The statistical results showed that most of the tires of different brands and models are differentiable. However, tires of the same brand and model with identical characteristics, such as country of manufacture, size and DOT number, are not differentiable. A model, based on a likelihood ratio approach, was chosen to evaluate the results of the comparisons between the chemical profiles of the traces and tires. The methodology developed was finally blindly tested using three simulated scenarios. Each scenario involved a trace of an unknown tire as well as two tires possibly at its origin. The correct results for the three scenarios were used to validate the developed methodology. The different steps of this work were useful to collect the required information to test and validate the underlying assumption that it is possible to help determine if an offending tire » or is not at the origin of a trace, by means of a statistical comparison of their chemical profile. This aid was formalized by a measure of the probative value of the evidence, which is represented by the chemical profile of the trace of the tire. - Ce travail s'est proposé de développer une méthodologie pour l'exploitation des caractéristiques chimiques des traces de pneumatiques dans le but d'aider à répondre à la question suivante : «Est-ce que le pneumatique incriminé est ou n'est pas à l'origine de la trace relevée sur les lieux ? ». Cette méthodologie s'est intéressée du prélèvement de la trace de pneumatique sur la chaussée à l'exploitation statistique de ses caractéristiques chimiques. L'acquisition de connaissances sur la composition et la fabrication de la bande de roulement des pneumatiques ainsi que la revue de techniques instrumentales utilisées pour l'analyse de matériaux polymériques ont permis de choisir, comme technique analytique pour la présente recherche, la pyrolyse couplée à un chromatographe en phase gazeuse avec un détecteur de spectrométrie de masse (Py-GC/MS). Une méthode analytique a été développée et optimisée afin d'obtenir la plus faible variabilité entre les réplicas d'un même échantillon. L'évaluation de l'intravariabilité de la bande de roulement a été entreprise dans sa largeur et sa circonférence à l'aide de plusieurs prélèvements effectués sur douze pneumatiques de marques et/ou modèles différents. La variabilité au sein de chacune des bandes de roulement (intravariabilité) ainsi qu'entre les bandes de roulement considérées (intervariabilité) a pu être quantifiée. Les différentes méthodes statistiques appliquées ont montré que l'intravariabilité est plus faible que l'intervariabilité, ce qui a permis de différencier ces pneumatiques. Dix traces de pneumatiques ont été produites à l'aide de pneumatiques de marques et/ou modèles différents en effectuant des tests de freinage. Ces traces ont pu être adéquatement prélevées à l'aide de feuilles de gélatine. Des particules de chaque trace ont été analysées selon la même méthodologie que pour les pneumatiques à leur origine. Le profil chimique général d'une trace de pneumatique ou d'un pneumatique a été caractérisé à l'aide de huitante-six composés. Sur la base de la comparaison statistique des profils chimiques obtenus, il a pu être montré qu'une trace de pneumatique n'est pas différenciable du pneumatique à son origine mais est, généralement, différenciable des pneumatiques qui ne sont pas à son origine. Par la suite, un échantillonnage comprenant soixante pneumatiques a été analysé afin d'évaluer le potentiel de discrimination de la méthodologie développée. Les méthodes statistiques appliquées ont mis en évidence que des pneumatiques de marques et modèles différents sont, majoritairement, différenciables entre eux. La méthodologie développée présente ainsi un bon potentiel de discrimination. Toutefois, des pneumatiques de la même marque et du même modèle qui présentent des caractéristiques PTD (i.e. pays de fabrication, taille et numéro DOT) identiques ne sont pas différenciables. Un modèle d'évaluation, basé sur une approche dite du likelihood ratio, a été adopté pour apporter une signification au résultat des comparaisons entre les profils chimiques des traces et des pneumatiques. La méthodologie mise en place a finalement été testée à l'aveugle à l'aide de la simulation de trois scénarios. Chaque scénario impliquait une trace de pneumatique inconnue et deux pneumatiques suspectés d'être à l'origine de cette trace. Les résultats corrects obtenus pour les trois scénarios ont permis de valider la méthodologie développée. Les différentes étapes de ce travail ont permis d'acquérir les informations nécessaires au test et à la validation de l'hypothèse fondamentale selon laquelle il est possible d'aider à déterminer si un pneumatique incriminé est ou n'est pas à l'origine d'une trace, par le biais d'une comparaison statistique de leur profil chimique. Cette aide a été formalisée par une mesure de la force probante de l'indice, qui est représenté par le profil chimique de la trace de pneumatique.

Faire la ville juste : une analyse "in itinere" de la maîtrise publique d'ouvrage du projet urbain Carré de Soie (métropole lyonnaise)

Dans certaines portions des agglomérations (poches de pauvreté de centre-ville, couronnes suburbaines dégradées, espaces périurbains sans aménité), un cumul entre des inégalités sociales (pauvreté, chômage, etc.) et environnementales (exposition au bruit, aux risques industriels, etc.) peut être observé. La persistance de ces inégalités croisées dans le temps indique une tendance de fond : la capacité d'accéder à un cadre de vie de qualité n'est pas équitablement partagée parmi les individus. Ce constat interroge : comment se créent ces inégalités ? Comment infléchir cette tendance et faire la ville plus juste ?¦Apporter des réponses à cette problématique nécessite d'identifier les facteurs de causalités qui entrent en jeu dans le système de (re)production des inégalités urbaines. Le fonctionnement des marchés foncier et immobilier, la « tyrannie des petites décisions » et les politiques publiques à incidence spatiale sont principalement impliqués. Ces dernières, agissant sur tous les éléments du système, sont placées au coeur de ce travail. On va ainsi s'intéresser précisément à la manière dont les collectivités publiques pilotent la production de la ville contemporaine, en portant l'attention sur la maîtrise publique d'ouvrage (MPO) des grands projets urbains.¦Poser la question de la justice dans la fabrique de la ville implique également de questionner les référentiels normatifs de l'action publique : à quelle conception de la justice celle-ci doit- elle obéir? Quatre perspectives (radicale, substantialiste, procédurale et intégrative) sont caractérisées, chacune se traduisant par des principes d'action différenciés. Une méthodologie hybride - empruntant à la sociologie des organisations et à l'analyse des politiques publiques - vient clore le volet théorique, proposant par un détour métaphorique d'appréhender le projet urbain comme une pièce de théâtre dont le déroulement dépend du jeu d'acteurs.¦Cette méthodologie est utilisée dans le volet empirique de la recherche, qui consiste en une analyse de la MPO d'un projet urbain en cours dans la première couronne de l'agglomération lyonnaise : le Carré de Soie. Trois grands objectifs sont poursuivis : descriptif (reconstruire le scénario), analytique (évaluer la nature de la pièce : conte de fée, tragédie ou match d'improvisation ?) et prescriptif (tirer la morale de l'histoire). La description de la MPO montre le déploiement successif de quatre stratégies de pilotage, dont les implications sur les temporalités, le contenu du projet (programmes, morphologies) et les financements publics vont être déterminantes. Sur la base de l'analyse, plusieurs recommandations peuvent être formulées - importance de l'anticipation et de l'articulation entre planification et stratégie foncière notamment - pour permettre à la sphère publique de dominer le jeu et d'assurer la production de justice par le projet urbain (réalisation puis entretien des équipements et espaces publics, financement de logements de qualité à destination d'un large éventail de populations, etc.). Plus généralement, un décalage problématique peut être souligné entre les territoires stratégiques pour le développement de l'agglomération et les capacités de portage limitées des communes concernées. Ce déficit plaide pour le renforcement des capacités d'investissement de la structure intercommunale.¦La seule logique du marché (foncier, immobilier) mène à la polarisation sociale et à la production d'inégalités urbaines. Faire la ville juste nécessite une forte volonté des collectivités publiques, laquelle doit se traduire aussi bien dans l'ambition affichée - une juste hiérarchisation des priorités dans le développement urbain - que dans son opérationnalisation - une juste maîtrise publique d'ouvrage des projets urbains.¦Inner-city neighborhoods, poor outskirts, and peri-urban spaces with no amenities usually suffer from social and environmental inequalities, such as poverty, unemployment, and exposure to noise and industrial hazards. The observed persistence of these inequalities over time points to an underlying trend - namely, that access to proper living conditions is fundamentally unequal, thus eliciting the question of how such inequalities are effected and how this trend can be reversed so as to build a more equitable city.¦Providing answers to such questions requires that the causal factors at play within the system of (re)production of urban inequalities be identified. Real estate markets, "micromotives and macrobehavior", and public policies that bear on space are mostly involved. The latter are central in that they act on all the elements of the system. This thesis therefore focuses on the way public authorities shape the production of contemporary cities, by studying the public project ownership of major urban projects.¦The study of justice within the urban fabric also implies that the normative frames of reference of public action be questioned: what conception of justice should public action refer to? This thesis examines four perspectives (radical, substantialist, procedural, and integrative) each of which results in different principles of action. This theoretical part is concluded by a hybrid methodology that draws from sociology of organizations and public policy analysis and that suggests that the urban project may be understood as a play, whose outcome hinges on the actors' acting.¦This methodology is applied to the empirical analysis of the public project ownership of an ongoing urban project in the Lyon first-ring suburbs: the Carré de Soie. Three main objectives are pursued: descriptive (reconstructing the scenario), analytical (assessing the nature of the play - fairy tale, tragedy or improvisation match), and prescriptive (drawing the moral of the story). The description of the public project ownership shows the successive deployment of four control strategies, whose implications on deadlines, project content (programs, morphologies), and public funding are significant. Building on the analysis, several recommendations can be made to allow the public sphere to control the process and ensure the urban project produces equity (most notably, anticipation and articulation of planning and real- estate strategy, as well as provision and maintenance of equipment and public spaces, funding of quality housing for a wide range of populations, etc.). More generally, a gap can be highlighted between those territories that are strategic to the development of the agglomeration and the limited resources of the municipalities involved. This deficit calls for strengthening the investment abilities of the intermunicipal structure.¦By itself, the real-estate market logic brings about social polarization and urban inequalities. Building an equitable city requires a strong will on the part of public authorities, a will that must be reflected both in the stated ambition - setting priorities of urban development equitably - and in its implementation managing urban public projects fairly.

Chemical profiling of different hashish seizures by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and statistical methodology: a case report

Limited information is available regarding the methodology required to characterize hashish seizures for assessing the presence or the absence of a chemical link between two seizures. This casework report presents the methodology applied for assessing that two different police seizures were coming from the same block before this latter one was split. The chemical signature was extracted using GC-MS analysis and the implemented methodology consists in a study of intra- and inter-variability distributions based on the measurement of the chemical profiles similarity using a number of hashish seizures and the calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Different statistical scenarios (i.e., a combination of data pretreatment techniques and selection of target compounds) were tested to find the most discriminating one. Seven compounds showing high discrimination capabilities were selected on which a specific statistical data pretreatment was applied. Based on the results, the statistical model built for comparing the hashish seizures leads to low error rates. Therefore, the implemented methodology is suitable for the chemical profiling of hashish seizures.

Appropriate treatment for Crohn's disease: methodology and summary results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel approach--EPACT.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: For many therapeutic decisions in Crohn's disease (CD), high-grade evidence is lacking. To assist clinical decision-making, explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria were developed by an international, multidisciplinary expert panel. METHODS: 10 gastroenterologists, 3 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from 12 European countries assessed the appropriateness of therapy for CD using the RAND Appropriateness Method. Their assessment was based on the study of a recent literature review of the subject, combined with their own expert clinical judgment. Panelists rated clinical indications and treatment options using a 9-point scale (1 = extremely inappropriate; 9 = extremely appropriate). These scenarios were then discussed in detail at the panel meeting and re-rated. Median ratings and disagreement were used to aggregate ratings into three assessment categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). RESULTS: 569 specific indications were rated, dealing with 9 clinical presentations: mild/moderate luminal CD (n = 104), severe CD (n = 126), steroid-dependent CD (n = 25), steroid-refractory CD (n = 37), fistulizing CD (n = 49), fibrostenotic CD (n = 35), maintenance of medical remission of CD (n = 84), maintenance of surgical remission (n = 78), drug safety in pregnancy (n = 24) and use of infliximab (n = 7). Overall, 146 indications (26%) were judged appropriate, 129 (23%) uncertain and 294 (52%) inappropriate. Frank disagreement was low (14% overall) with the greatest disagreement (54% of scenarios) being observed for treatment of steroid-refractory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed explicit appropriateness criteria for the appropriate use of therapy for CD were developed for the first time by a European expert panel. Disease location, severity and previous treatments were the main factors taken into account. User-friendly access to EPACT criteria is available via an Internet site, www.epact.ch, allowing prospective evaluation and improvement of appropriateness of current CD therapy.

Turnaround across diverse global supply chains using shared metrics and change methodology: The Case of Amer Sports Corporation

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to document the outcome of a global three-year long supply chain improvement initiative at a multi-national producer of branded sporting goods that is transforming from a holding structure to an integrated company. The case company is comprised of seven internationally well-known sport brands, which form a diverse set of independent sub-cases, on which the same supply chain metrics and change project approach was applied to improve supply chain performance. Design/methodology/approach - By using in-depth case study and statistical analysis the paper analyzes across the brands how supply chain complexity (SKU count), supply chain type (make or buy) and seasonality affect completeness and punctuality of deliveries, and inventory as the change project progresses. Findings - Results show that reduction in supply chain complexity improves delivery performance, but has no impact on inventory. Supply chain type has no impact on service level, but brands with in-house production are better in improving inventory than those with outsourced production. Non-seasonal business units improve service faster than seasonal ones, yet there is no impact on inventory. Research limitations/implications - The longitudinal data used for the analysis is biased with the general business trend, yet the rich data from different cases and three-years of data collection enables generalizations to a certain level. Practical implications - The in-depth case study serves as an example for other companies on how to initiate a supply chain improvement project across business units with tangible results. Originality/value - The seven sub-cases with their different characteristics on which the same improvement initiative was applied sets a unique ground for longitudinal analysis to study supply chain complexity, type and seasonality.

Effect of changes in the deuterium content of drinking water on the hydrogen isotope ratio of urinary steroids in the context of sports drug testing.

The hydrogen isotope ratio (HIR) of body water and, therefore, of all endogenously synthesized compounds in humans, is mainly affected by the HIR of ingested drinking water. As a consequence, the entire organism and all of its synthesized substrates will reflect alterations in the isotope ratio of drinking water, which depends on the duration of exposure. To investigate the effect of this change on endogenous urinary steroids relevant to doping-control analysis the hydrogen isotope composition of potable water was suddenly enriched from -50 to 200 0/00 and maintained at this level for two weeks for two individuals. The steroids under investigation were 5β-pregnane-3α,20α-diol, 5α-androst-16-en-3α-ol, 3α-hydroxy-5α-androstan-17-one (ANDRO), 3α-hydroxy-5β-androstan-17-one (ETIO), 5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol, and 5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol (excreted as glucuronides) and ETIO, ANDRO and 3β-hydroxyandrost-5-en-17-one (excreted as sulfates). The HIR of body water was estimated by determination of the HIR of total native urine, to trace the induced changes. The hydrogen in steroids is partly derived from the total amount of body water and cholesterol-enrichment could be calculated by use of these data. Although the sum of changes in the isotopic composition of body water was 150 0/00, shifts of approximately 30 0/00 were observed for urinary steroids. Parallel enrichment in their HIR was observed for most of the steroids, and none of the differences between the HIR of individual steroids was elevated beyond recently established thresholds. This finding is important to sports drug testing because it supports the intended use of this novel and complementary methodology even in cases where athletes have drunk water of different HIR, a plausible and, presumably, inevitable scenario while traveling.

A methodology to event reconstruction from trace images

The widespread use of digital imaging devices for surveillance (CCTV) and entertainment (e.g., mobile phones, compact cameras) has increased the number of images recorded and opportunities to consider the images as traces or documentation of criminal activity. The forensic science literature focuses almost exclusively on technical issues and evidence assessment [1]. Earlier steps in the investigation phase have been neglected and must be considered. This article is the first comprehensive description of a methodology to event reconstruction using images. This formal methodology was conceptualised from practical experiences and applied to different contexts and case studies to test and refine it. Based on this practical analysis, we propose a systematic approach that includes a preliminary analysis followed by four main steps. These steps form a sequence for which the results from each step rely on the previous step. However, the methodology is not linear, but it is a cyclic, iterative progression for obtaining knowledge about an event. The preliminary analysis is a pre-evaluation phase, wherein potential relevance of images is assessed. In the first step, images are detected and collected as pertinent trace material; the second step involves organising and assessing their quality and informative potential. The third step includes reconstruction using clues about space, time and actions. Finally, in the fourth step, the images are evaluated and selected as evidence. These steps are described and illustrated using practical examples. The paper outlines how images elicit information about persons, objects, space, time and actions throughout the investigation process to reconstruct an event step by step. We emphasise the hypothetico-deductive reasoning framework, which demonstrates the contribution of images to generating, refining or eliminating propositions or hypotheses. This methodology provides a sound basis for extending image use as evidence and, more generally, as clues in investigation and crime reconstruction processes.

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

The Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism (SWITCO65+): rationale and methodology.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common and has a high impact on morbidity, mortality, and costs of care. Although most of the patients with VTE are aged ≥65 years, there is little data about the medical outcomes in the elderly with VTE. The Swiss Cohort of Elderly Patients with VTE (SWITCO65+) is a prospective multicenter cohort study of in- and outpatients aged ≥65 years with acute VTE from all five Swiss university and four high-volume non-university hospitals. The goal is to examine which clinical and biological factors and processes of care drive short- and long-term medical outcomes, health-related quality of life, and medical resource utilization in elderly patients with acute VTE. The cohort also includes a large biobank with biological material from each participant. From September 2009 to March 2012, 1,863 elderly patients with VTE were screened and 1003 (53.8 %) were enrolled in the cohort. Overall, 51.7 % of patients were aged ≥75 years and 52.7 % were men. By October 16, 2012, after an average follow-up time of 512 days, 799 (79.7 %) patients were still actively participating. SWITCO65+ is a unique opportunity to study short- and long-term outcomes in elderly patients with VTE. The Steering Committee encourages national and international collaborative research projects related to SWITCO65+, including sharing anonymized data and biological samples.

A new scenario for the Domerian-Toarcian transition

In contrast to the majority of recently published hypotheses, we believe that the main trigger for early Toarcian anoxia is neither increased primary productivity during the Tenuicostatum and Falciferum Zones nor sudden methane hydrate degassing close to the transition between these two zones. In our opinion, this peculiar paleoceanographic episode is linked to a major, though short-lived, regression at the end of Upper Domerian. Sea-level fall resulted from sudden cooling due to increased volcanic activity. This generated global thermal insulation and subsequent glaciation. The regression is responsible for a major hiatus over NW-European epicontinental seas and is later followed by the well-known Lower Toarcian transgression. The interval corresponding to this hiatus allowed vegetation to colonise vast newly emerged surfaces. The leaching and drowning of the accumulated organo-humic matter then triggered the anoxic cycle at the transgressive maximum, concomitant with a global warming.